CHURCHILL RESULTS -- 11/29/21

 So, another "close but no cigar" in my Saturday picks. I gave you 16 horse to consider yesterday in the final four races at Churchill.  I had three winners, four seconds and three thirds -- good for a 69% "in the money" number.  I filled 10 of the 12 payable spots for a 83% success rate. 

Race 9 -- I  had the exacta with TEJANO TWIST (6/5) first and BARBER ROAD second. Joe Rocco got the win for W. Bret Calhoun with a perfectly timed ride. 

Race 10 -- I hit the trifecta with DREAM LITH (9-1) first, YUUGIRI second and SANDSTONE third. Ramon Vasquez in saddle for Roberto Doidoro. 

Race 11 -- SMILE HAPPY (9/2) knocked off the two favorites to win the Ky Jockey Club Stakes. Corey Lanerie guided him home for Kenny McPeek. I had CLASSIC CAUSEWAY for second and WHITE ALBERRO for third. 

Race 12- Another trifecta for me with MARISSA'S LADY (3-1) getting the win for Rafael Bejarano and William Morey. I also had MALAREYA in second and SWEET DANI GIRL in third. 

A nice Pick 4 if you were smarter than me and included SMILE HAPPY in it -- $502.20 on the .50 cent wager. 

***********************************************************************************

I now "take the rest of the year off" and I'll start Paulie Picks up again when they return to Keeneland in the spring of 2022.   Thank you for following and we'll see ya then. 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWND SELECTIONS -- 11/27/21

 

A nice Saturday card at Churchill as the fall meet winds down. Four stakes races (9-12) close it out, so that's where we'll go.

This will be the final Paulie Picks for the year. We'll pick it back up when the ponies return to Keeneland in the spring of 2022. 

UPDATED 411 pm

RACE 9 -- LIVELY SHIVELY -- $200K -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS

5 -- TEJANO TWIST

8 -- HOIST THE GOLD

7 -- BARBER ROAD

3  - CHATTALOT

RACE 10 -- GOLDENROD STAKES -- GII -- $400K-- 1-1/16TH MILE

4 -- SANDSTONE

1 -- FAMED

6 - -YUUGIRL

7 -- DREAM LITH

RACE 11 -- KY JOCKEY CLUB STAKES -- GII -- $400K -- 1=1/16TH MILE

5 -- HOWLING TIME

1 -- CLASIC CAUSEWAY

6 -- TIZ THE BOMB scratch

10 -- WHITE ALBARRO

7 -- VIVAR

RACE 12 -- FERN CREEK STAKES -- $200 K -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS

6 -- MARISSA'S LADY

8  -- SWEET DANI GIRL

2 -- MALAREYA

1 -- GOLDEN SIGHTS scratch

5 -- KNOWING GLANCE

THE PLAY

I'll chase my final Pick 4  of the year. 

Going three deep in Race 9 (5,7,8) then four deep in Races 10-12, off my picks. You could go "single" in Race 9 on Tejano Road, he's that good -- but it's horseracing and anything can happen...t's your call. COST $96

See ya in the spring!

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS RESULTS -- 11/20/21

 Another "oh,so close, but no cigar" day for me in handicapping the late Pick 4 at Churchill Downs. I gave you 16 horses I thought would run well Saturday and had three winners, three seconds and three thirds in Races 8-11. That's a 56% "in the money" percentage.  Out of the 12 "payable" spots  -- I Filled nine, for 75% success, 

RACE 8 -- CENTER AISLE got the win (6/5) pretty easily with Joel Rosario riding for Paulo Lobo. I had her, second place MISS MOSAIC and third place SUN PATH. A good start to the sequence.

RACE 9 -- This one was the wrecker. TULANE TRYST launched a late stretch drive (2-1) to catch and pass my top pick COOL QUEST right at the wire. Churchill favorite jockey  Brian Hernandez, Jr sunk my Pick 4 for Charlie DeVaux. So close...

RACE 10 -- In the Chilukki Stakes, OBLIGATORY (3/2) got the win for Joel Rosario and Billy Mott. I had her, MALERA for second and MISS BIGLY for show.

RACE 11 -- DAME JOVIALE broke her maiden in the final (6-1) with James Graham in the saddle and George Arnold training. I had her, along with TAKE A STAND for second

The Pick 4 paid $95.65 on the .50 cent wager. 

A Big stakes card at Churchill next Saturday and we'll give it a go

paulie 

CHURCHILL DOWNS PICKS -- 11/20/21

 

A cool but clear and dry day for Fall racing at Churchill Downs this Saturday. A bit of everything in the Late Pick 4 -- with a optional claiming, allowance, stakes and maiden races to close out the card. iT'S, OF COURSE, ALL ON THE DIRT. The track should be fast. 

I'll checK back later today for scratches and update my picks as needed Good Luck!

RACE 8 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING - 63K - SIX AND 1/2 FURLONGS

4 -- CENTER AISLE

7 -- MISS MOSAIC

3 -- SUN PATH

2 -- SLAM DUNK 

RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE -  127K - SIX FURLONGS

1 -- COOL QUEST

2 -- PIRATE RICK

6 -- GULFSTREAM WAY

3 -- NAME REJECTED

RACE 10 -- CHILUKKI STAKES -- 300K -- ONE MILE

 7 -- OBLIGATORY

3 -- MATERA

4 -- MISS BIGLY

1 -- SHE CAN'T SING

RACE 11 -- MAIDEN -- 120K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

2 -- FABULOUS FANNY

9 -- LISCOLVIN

7 -- DAME JOVIALE

5 -- TAKE A STAND

THE PLAY

I'll stand by my top four picks in each of the four races and play my late Pick 4 that way. It'll cost you $128 on the .50 cent Pick 4. 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS RESULTS -- 11/13/21

 

An OK Day handicapping Churchill Saturday's card, but I ultimately fell short on the goal of hitting the late Pick 4. 

I gave you 16 horses to consider in Races 8-11, I had three winners, two seconds and three thirds. That's a 50% in the money number. I filled eight of the 12 payable slots.--good for a 66% success rate. 

(Honestly, I made my money yesterday on Race 5 yesterday.  I loved Parlance, with Leparoux riding for Steve Asmussen and he won convincingly. That $60 investment ($20 WPS) brought me back $212 and paid for my Pick 4 foolishness. 

RACE 8 -- EPICENTER (3-1) knocked me out of the Pick 4 early. A wire-to-wire win for Joel Rosario and Asmussen. I had SEAL BEACH, who ran a good second. 

RACE 9 -- GIRL WITH A DREAM was sent off at even money and got it done for Rosario again, this time with Brad Cox training. I also had PIPELINE GIRL, who ran third. 

RACE 10 -- SCONSIN scratched and that was my top pick in the Dream Supreme Stakes. I did have BELL'S THE ONE,(4/5) who nudged out CLUB Car, who I also had. Corey Lanerie won on his 47th. birthday for Neil Pessin. I also had FRANK'S ROCKETTE who ended up third. 

RACE 11 -- CALL ME MIDNIGHT (2-1) ran down ALMANZO to win the final. I had both. James Graham on board for J. Keith Desormeaux. I also had QUICK TO BLAME who gathered show money. 

The Pick 4 paid a paltry $30.65 on the .50 cent ticket. 

We'll give it a "go" next week.

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS PICKS 11-13-21

Cloudy and cold at Churchill today. 

Ive looked at thee Late PICK 4 and my picks are below: 

RACE 8 -- MSW -- $120K -- ONE MILE

5 -- MASK PATROL

7 -- SEAL BEACH

8 -- SEVEN FLAT

6 -- CLOUDY

RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE -- $127K -- SIX FURLONGS 

3 -- GIRL WITH A DREAM

5 -- LADY DANAE

7 -- PIPELINE GIRL

1 -- SUNDAY GRACE

RACE 10 -- DREAM SURPREME STAKES -- $300K -- SIX FURLONGS

4 -- SCONSIN

6 -- BELL'S THE ONE

7 -- FRANK'S ROCKETTE

5 -- CLUB CAR

RACE 11 -- MSW -- $120K -- ONE MILE

1 -- ALMANZO

4 -- CALL ME MIDNIGHT

9 -- OILER

8 -- QUICK TO BLAME

(ALSO WATCH -- 10 -- BRAWNDO) 

I'm playing the Late Pick 4 with my picks. Let's win one !

Good luck today!

paulie

SATURDAY BREEDERS CUP RESULTS --- 11/6/21

 A great day of racing in the Breeders Cup yesterday with a few big surprises several amazing finishes. No rain and a nine race Breeders Cup Stakes race sequence I attempted to handicap. 

I provided 34 horses (after scratches) to consider in the nine races. Out of those, I had six winner, six places and five shows. That equals out to a 50% "in the money" percentage. Out of the 27 "payable" spots I filled 17 for a 63% success rate. 

RACE 4 -- CECE upset GAMINE to take the F&M Sprint. at 6-1 odds. I had both. A well timed ride by Victor Espinoza for Michael McCarthy. 

RACE 5 -- In the Turf Sprint, GOLDEN PAL (5/2) proved to be best. I had him and LT.DAN who ran second. Irad Ortiz, Jr had the mount for Wesley Ward.

RACE 6 -- What a convincing win in the Dirt Mile by LIFE IS GOOD (3/5). I had that one and GINOBILI, who ran second. Another win for Irad Ortiz, Jr, this time for Todd Pletcher. The Pick 3 paid $55.05 on the .50 cent wager. 

RACE 7 -- In the F&M Turf, a bit of a surprise when LOVES YOU ONLY got the win at 4-1 odds. The Japanese entry beat my picks MY SISTER NAT, who ran second and WAR LIKE GODDESS, who got third. Yuga Kawada got his firsst-ever Breeders Cup race win and Yoshitu YAhagi trained. A $26.75 Pick 3 payout.

RACE 8 -- ALOHA WEST hit the wire first in the Sprint, and I had him at 11-1 odds. A great ride from Jose Ortiz for Wayne Catalano. I also had DR.SCHIVEL, who got second in a photo. $80.50 on the Pick 3. 

RACE 9 -- SPACE BLUES ruled in the Turf Mile at 2-1 odds. I also had SMOOTH LIKE STRAIGHT who ran third. The Irish entry was piloted by William Buick and trained by Charles Appleby. 

RACE 10 -- A big bomb exploded in the Distaff when 45-1 shot MARCHE LORRAINE crossed the wire first. Oisin Murphy got his first Breeders Cup Day win ever for Japanese trainer Yoshito Yagagi. I had MALATHAAT, who got third. The Pick 3 was worth $1679.50 !! 

RACE 11 -- YIBIR (8-1) took a highly contested Turf race. The Great Britain entry was ridden by William Buick for Charles Appleby. I had TEONA, who ended up third. $947.75 on the Pick 3. 

RACE 12 -- It was KNICKS GO from gate-to-wire in the Classic at 2-1 odds. I loved this one, and had him, along with third place runner ESSENTIAL QUALITY. Joel Rosario with the win for Brad Cox. The Pick 3 paid $917.50 and if you were fortunate to hit that Late Pick 4 -- congratulations on a $4403.75 pay day.  It should be noted they ran the "Derby Distance" of 1-1.4th miles in 1:59:57 --  almost breaking the Breeders Cup record of 1:59:02 back in 2004 at Lone Star Park by Ghostzapper.

It was a rough day of wagering for me, I tried (6) rolling pick threes and the Late Pick 4. A layout of $288 and return of just $55.05. Maybe that's why I don't bet California tracks anymore...A good day for Japanese racing, Charles Appleby, William Buick and Irad Ortiz, Jr who all got two wins. 

We'll "give it a go" next Saturday at Churchill.

paulie

SATURDAY BREEDERS CUP PICKS -- 11/6/21

 

This is it!  Breeders Cup Saturday and tons of great racing at DelMar. I'm probably foolish for doing it, but I've handicapped all nine of the Breeders Cup stakes races. To the picks!

RACE 4 -- F&M SPRINT -- SEVEN FURLONGS

5 -- GAMINE

4 -- CECE

6 -- BELLA SOFIA

3 -- ESTITO TALENTOSO

RACE 5 -- TURF SPRINT -- FIVE FURLONGS (TURF) 

10 -- GEAR JOCKEY

4 -- LT. DAN

9 -- KAMARI

3 -- GOLDEN PAL

RACE 6 -- DIRT MILE -- ONE MILE

1 -- SILVER STATE

5 -- LIFE IS GOOD

3 -- GINOBILI

7 -- SNAPPER SINCLAIR

RACE 7 -- F&M TURF -- 1-3/8TH MILE (TURF) 

7 -- WAR LIKE GODDESS

9 -- MY SISTER NAT

12 -- AUDIARYA

6 -- LOVE

RACE 8 -- SPRINT -- SIX FURLONGS

2 -- JACKIE'S WARRIOR

9 -- DR. SCHIVEL

8 -- SPECIAL RESERVE

5 -- ALOHA ROSE

RACE 9 -- TURF MILE -- ONE MILE (TURF)

3 -- SPACE BLUES

6 -- MO FORZA

2 -- SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT

11 -- GOT STORMY

RACE 10 -- DISTAFF -- 1-1/8TH MILE

6 -- LETRUSKA

3 -- MALATHAAT

2 -- ROYAL FLAG

8 -- SHEDARESTHEDEVIL

RACE 11 -- TURF -- 1-1/2 MILE (TURF) 

13 -- TARNAWA

1 -- ROCKEMPEROR

7 -- WALTON STREET

12 -- TEONA

RACE 12 -- CLASSIC -- 1-1/4 MILE

5 -- KNICKS GO

3 -- HOT ROD CHARLIE

4 -- ESSENTIAL QUALITY

6 -- ART COLLECTOR

THE PLAY: 

I'll dabble in a few Pick 4's (they are in Races 4,8 and 9) and a few Pick 3's.  I had success a couple of years ago in the Breeders Cup with the "rolling Pick 3" starting in Race 4.  That would run $224 today  (seven Pick 3's, four picks per race) 

Good luck! 

paulie

 

FRIDAY BREEDERS CUP RESULTS -- 11/5/21

 I went after the five Breeders Cup races Friday and hit four of them.  Race10 was strange with two of my picks getting scratched.

All in all, I had17 runners go and had four winners, four seconds and two thirds. I'LL take it.

RACE 6 --In the Turf Sprint, I had TWLIGHT GLEAMING  at 5-1 and GO BEARS GO. It was an exacta thay paid $67,50

RACE 7 -- In the Juvenile fillies, I had ECHO ZULU at 6/5. I also had JUJUS MAP and TARABI

RACE 8 -- I n the Juvenile Fillies Turf I had PIZZA BIANCA (9-1) and MALAVATH. That exacta paid $197

RACE 9 -- CORNICH won the JUVENILE at 7/5 odds. 

RACE 10 --- Well, it was weird with the scratches.  I managed to get nothing on the board.

WE'LL give it a go tomorrow  

paulie

FRIDAY BREEDERS CUP PICKS -- 11/5/21

 The Friday Breeders Cup at Del Mar brings five Breeders Cup Races. Without going into a lot of detail, here's how I see them: 

RACE 6 -- TURF SPRINT -- GII -- FIVE FURLONGS (TURF) 

6 -- TWILIGHT GLEAMING 

7 -- ARMOR

5 -- AVERY JANE

3 -- GO BEARS GO

RACE 7 -- JUVENILE FILLIES -- GI -- 1-1/6TH MILE 

6 -- ECHO ZULU

5 -- JUJU'S MAP

2 -- HIDDEN CONNECTION

4 -- TARABI 

RACE 8 -- JUVENILE FILLIES TURF -- GI -- 1 MILE (TURF)

'1 -- PIZZA BIANCA

5 -- BUBBLE ROCK

12 -- MALAVATH

13 -- MISE EN SCENE

RACE 9 -- JUVENILE -- GI -- 1-1/16TH MILE

1 -- JACK CHRISTOPHER

12 -- CORNICHE

9 -- PINEHURST

10 -- COMMAND PERFORMANCE

RACE 10 -- TURF -- GI -- I MILE (TURF) 

3 -- DAKOTA GOLD

14 -- DUBAWI LEGEND

2 -- ALBAHR

1 -- MODERN GAMES

Play 'em however you feel today, I haven't decided yet. 

Good luck! 

paulie

KEENELAND RESULTS -- 10/30/21

 A wet, sloppy day to end the Keeneland Fall meet, and a day where favorites reigned supreme in the final four races of the day. I gave you 16 horses to consider, after scratches, and 11 of them hit the board for a 68% "in the money" percentage. Out of the 12 "payable" spots available in Races 7-10, I filled 11 for a 92% success rate. 

Let's look at it:

RACE 7 -- NAKATOMI (2-1) roared down the stretch to pass tiring horses and took the win as the co-favorite. .Meet leading rider Tyler Gaffalione got the win for trainer Wesley Ward. I also had MY PRANKSTER for second and CHATTALOT for third. 

RACE 8 -- CAMP HOPE proved best in the Bryan Station at 5-2 and got a rousing ride from Brian Herandez Jr. for trainer Kelly McPeek. LIKE THE KING ended up second and YES THIS TIME managed third. I gave you all three in my selections. 

RACE 9 -- INDEPENDENCE HALL surprised a few in knocking off CODE OF HONOR in the Fayette Stakes att 7/2 odds. Javier Castellano did the piloting for Michael McCarthy. I had both of them, as well as third place finisher KING FURY/

RACE 10 -- FAMED (2/5) toyed with them until the stretch in the seven furlong final and then blew them away. Florent Geroux on the ride for meet training leader Brad Cox. Sired by Uncle Mo, this two year old filly is one you want to watch next year! Impressive. I also had CATWINGS, who barely got up for third. 

The Pick 4 paid a very low $41 on a .50 wager. I spent $64 on it. I'll say it again, I'm glad the ponies are leaving Keeneland and headed back to Churchill, in terms of my handicapping success. By my figuring, I lost about $150 up there during the meet. I'm still "up" on the year, but, Keeneland was tricky to figure out, until yesterday  

Next Friday and Saturday bring in Breeders Cup Weekend. I don't normally play west coast tracks, but with the wealth of excellent horse that always show up for this big weekend, I'll give it a "go" on Friday and Saturday and try Santa Anita with my selections. 

Be sure to check back. 

paulie 

KEENELAND PICKS -- 10/30/21

 A rainy Saturday on tap for closing weekend at Keeneland for the Fall Meet.  With three stakes, three on the dirt and a turf race that I'll be surprised if it stays on the grass -- a good card to close it out up in Lexington. 

Scratches today? Yeah, I expect there will be. I'll try to jump in and update here as best I can later today. I've also gone a little deeper in my "if scratches occur" horse selections. 

It has not been a great Keeneland  Fall Meet for me, in terms of handicapping and picking winners. And, Keeneland is a tough track to "get a handle on".  They're bringing in the best trainers, best horses and best jockeys -- but, as we know, the best looking on paper and form don't always get their photo taken in the winners' circle. 

Nevertheless, we'll give it a go today and see if we can end our Keeneland pursuits on a positive note. Fingers crossed, rabbit's foot and lucky horseshoe by my side...

( SCRATCHES UPDATED AT 12:17 TODAY)

RACE 7 -- BOWMAN MILLS STAKES -- $150K -- SIX FURLONGS

7 -- MY PRANKSTER

6 -- FREELANCER

4 -- NAKATOMI 

2 -- CHATTALOT 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  1-- ROGER MCQUEEN (scratched) , 5 -- LUCKY SHOT)

RACE 8 -- BRYAN STATION STAKES -- $150K --  ONE MILE (TURF) 

10 -- YES THIS TIME

12 -- DREAMER'S DISEASE

11 -- CAMP HOPE

4 -- PERFECT SILENT CAT  (scratched) 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  6 -- LIKE THE KING, 7 -- POINT ME BY) 

RACE 9 -- FAYETTE STAKES -- GII -- $200K -- 1-18TH MILE

7 -- CODE OF HONOR

1 -- SLEEPY EYED TODD  (scratched) 

4 -- NIGHT OPS

5 -- INDEPENDENCE HALL 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  6 -- KING FURY, 9 -- MAJOR FED) 

RACE 10 -- MAIDEN -- 84K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

1 -- FAMED

8 -- GUN SLINGER

9 -- HALO OF FIRE

11 -- CATWINGS

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  6 -- BUNDUKI, 13 -- VALENTINO DAY) 

THE PLAY

I'll go after a Late Pick 4, but how I structure it depends on what the scratches look like as Race 7 approaches. 

I do like my top four picks in Races 7,8,9 -- I love Famed and Gun Slinger in Race 10 and I do think LIKE THE KING has a legitimate shot in Race 8. 

So, we'll wait and see what the weather brings and if scratches occur. 

Good luck today!! 

paulie  

KEENELAND RESULTS -- 10/23/21

 

Ugh. 

What a day at Keeneland yesterday. Let's just pretend they DIDN'T run up there. I handicapped the final four races and gave you sixteen horses I thought might....aw, never mind...only five of my 16 hit the board -- NO WINNERS, two seconds and three thirds. A dismal 31% "in the money" percentage. Filling five of the 12 "payable sports wasn't much better -- 42% is pretty bad, too. 

RACE 7 -- HE'S MYHONEYBADGER (6-1) got the win for Brad Cox and Florent Geroux. I did have PIPELINE, who ran third in the Perryville Stakes. Perryville was the site of a Civil War battle here in Kentucky. Count me among the casualties.

RACE 8 -- MEGACITY (24-1) surprised the field with Joe Rocco on board. The Michael Tomlinson trainee beat out BIG DREAMING, who I had. 

RACE 9 -- CARMEL SWIRL (3-1) drew a lot more money than I thought she would and won the Raven Run Stakes. Junior Alvarado rode for Billy Mott. I had CILLA who ended up third. 

RACE 10 -- SANTIN (4-1) was best in the allowance closer for Adam Beschizza and Brendan Walsh. I came up with PINE KNOLL who ran second and RICOCHET who got third. 

The .50 Pick 4 -- (4/10/8/6) paid $4931 to those lucky enough to have it . 

Yesterday was like the quarterback who keeps getting sacked. All you can do is get back up, go to the huddle and try again. We'll do that Saturday. Hopefully, with much better results. 

paulie

KEENELAND PICKS -- 10/23/21

 A nice start to today's weather for racing at Keeneland, with the chance of some late day showers possible. Two stakes races and two allowance races make up the final four races of the day.

(Due to other afternoon obligations, I probably won't be able to update and scratches or changes. Let's hope there aren't any -- but I've listed an alternate for each race -- in case they happen).

Let's get to it. 

RACE 7 -- PERRYVILLE STAKES -- $150K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

8 -- COOL QUEST

5 -- PICKIN' TIME

9 -- RUNWAY MAGIC

6 -- PIPELINE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- #3 RAM) 

RACE 8 -- ALLOWANCE -- $83K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF) 

4 -- BIG AGENDA

11 -- BIZZEE CHANNEL

12 -- BIG DREAMING

7 -- ARGENTELLO

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- #9 -- SPECTULAR GEM) 

RACE 9 -- RAVEN RUN STAKES -- GII -- $350K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

3 -- SOUPER SENSATIONAL 

7 -- CILLA

5 -- STRONG SILENT

11 -- MISS SPEEDY

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- #13 OBLIGATORY) 

RACE 10 -- ALLOWANCE -- $86K -- ONE MILE (TURF) 

10 -- PINE KNOLL

4 -- HEALING

8 -- RICOCHET

11 - CLEARING WAIVERS

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- #5 GINSBURNED) 

The  Play: 

Let's chase a late Pick 4 and go with my top four picks in races 7-10. That'll get you out for $128 and, with no clear, odds-on favorites in the morning line, we should clear a nice profit if the handicapping hits. 

5,6,8,9/4,7,11,12/ 3,5,7,11/4,8,10,11

Best of luck! 

paulie

 

KEENELAND RESULTS -- 10/16/21

 It was a "true to form" kind of day at Keenelland yesterday. I handicapped the final four races on the card and my top selection won two of the races -- my second selection won the other two. 

I gave you 16 horses to consider. Out of those, I had four winners, four seconds and one third. That's a 56% "in the money" percentage. I fill nine of the 12 "payable spots for a 75% success rate. 

Let's break it down: 

RACE 7 -- BIG CITY MOMMA (3-1) used a nice stretch move under Tyler Gaffalione to win for trainer Shug McGaughey in the maiden race. I had that one and second place finisher STREET MISERY. 

RACE 8 -- SHANTISARA (5/2) prevailed in the stretch in the QEII Stakes -- a nice ride from west coast import Flavien Prat for Chad Brown. I also gave you TECHNICAL ADVISOR, who ran a strong second. 

RACE 9 -- DUCALE (4/5) took them wire-to-wire -- holding off WINTER POOL and MALIBU STAR in the stretch. I gave you all three. Florent Geroux on board for the Brad Cox runner. 

RACE 10 -- SOCIAL CHATTER (7/2) came flying from far back to squeak out the win for Rafael Bejarano and Victoria Oliver. I had that one and GHOSTING KIM, who narrowly lost.

When you have four winners, and none of them are over 3-1 in the final odds, chances are the Pick 4 isn't going to be a huge one, and that was the case yesterday -- paying $85.95 on the .50 cent wager . It may have been tempered a bit by the inclusion of the #7 in Race 9 in the payout-- a late scratch. 

So, it was the scenario of hitting the late Pick 4 but losing money on the wager.  That'll happen sometimes -- when you play a ticket that includes the possibility of some "shots" coming in for you -- when ...and "they" don't...and favorites prevail. At least I didn't have to toss the ticket on the ground as a complete loser. 

We'll give it a "go" next Saturday.

paulie

KEENELAND PICKS -- 10/16/21

 

It looks to be a beautiful. fall type day for racing at Keeneland today, no rain in the forecast and temperatures in the 60's. A good card, with two challenging allowance races, a maiden race that looks pretty tough and the Qoeen Elizabeth II, Grade I Cup Stakes. Two turf, two dirt. 

Let's get to it: 

RACE 7 -- MAIDEN -- 84K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

1 -- BIG CITY MOMMA

2 -- SOVEREIGN APPROVAL

5 -- STREET MISSION

3 -- SOUTH GEORGIA

RACE 8  -- QE II CUP -- 500K -- 1-18TH MILE (TURF) 

4 -- EMPRESS JOSEPH

3 -- SHANTISARA

2 -- TECHNICAL ADVISOR

8 -- FLIPPANT

RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE -- 86K -- 1 MILE

1 -- MALIBU STAR

5 -- DUCATE

4 -- WINTER POOL

2 -- OTTOTHELEGEND

RACE 10 -- ALLOWNCE -- 88K -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) 

1 -- SOCIAL CHATTER

4 -- CHILI PETIN

3 -- GHOSTING KIM

6 -- SIGNIFY

THE PLAY: 

Let's chase a late Pick 4 here (races 7-10) and take my first three picks in Race 7. I'll follow that up with my top four picks in Race 8 -- and include #10 CLOSING ROMANCE in the OE II -- this one has been a West Coaster -- has been in the money seven out of nine times and run in eight stakes races out there. In Race 9, I'll take my top four and might consider #9 Mr. Tip -- he goes from turf to dirt and has faced tougher in his career. I'll end with my top four picks in the Race 10 closer -- this one is wide open, honestly, and -- keep an eye open -- if #13 or #15 get "in" off the AE list -- they should be respected. Add them, if needed, and replace the 6 and/or the 4. 

1,2,5/2,3,4,8,10/1,2,4,5,9/1,3,4,6  =  Cost $150

Good luck today! 

paulie

KEENELAND RESULTS -- 10/9/21

 Some great stakes racing yesterday at Keeneland -- not the best results for my handicapping efforts though. 

I gave you 20 horses total in the five races (Race 6-10) and out of those, I had three winners, two seconds and four thirds. That 45% "in the money" is nothing to stop the presses over. Out of the 15 possible "payout" spots -- I had nine of them -- I won't boast about a 60% success rate. 

RACE 6 -- It went according to form and my handicapping. GOLDEN PAL (1/2) took the Woodford and got a great ride from John Velasquez. I also had EXTRAVAGENT KID for second and COUNTY FINAL, who got third. At least it was a good start to my handicapping.

RACE 7 -- Even money BELL'S THE ONE was the one in the TCA stakes. Popular Kentucky circuit rider Corey Lanerie had the ride I had him, as well as third place runner ESTILO TALENTOSO

RACE 8 -- BLOWOUT blew by the field to capture the First Lady Stakes at 5-1 with popular west coast jockey Flavian Prat riding for Chad Brown. I had that one, but couldn't come up with a place or show in the race. 

RACE 9 -- Here's where it "blew up" for me. I did not have 9-1 winner Rattle N Roll. Brian Hernandez Jr took this one on an outside path as the entered the start of the final tuen and just demolished the field for the Kenny McPeek horse. I had DOUBLE THUNDER who followed for second and CLASSIC CAUSEWAY who faded to third. Didn't see that one coming.

RACE 10 -- A longshot -- IN LOVE (12-1) moved well in the stretch to take the Turf Mile Stales for Alex Achard and Paula Lobo. I didn't have that one, just SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN for third. 

The Pick 4 paid $1689 on a .50 cent venture. I went a different way -- putting $2 to win on each of my 20 runners. I got back $19.80 on the $40 wager. I didn't get to see any of the races "live" -- I was watching Louisville lose a heartbreaking football game yesterday -- so I didn't know about my beat-down until Sunday morning. 

We'll give it a go next Saturday

paulie

KEENELAND PICKS -- 10/9/21

 Some great stAkes racing on the opening weekend at Keeneland for the fall, and today's card has five stakes -- three on the turf and a combination of sprints and distances. Let's get to it! 

RACE 6 -- WOODFORD STAKES -- GII -- $200K -- 5-1.2 FURLONGS (TURF) 

2 -- GOLDEN PAL

4 -- FIRECROW

6 -- EXTRAVAGENT KID

7 -- COUNTY FINAL

RACE 7 -- TCA -- GII -- $250K -- SIX FURLONGS

4 -- ESTILO TALENTOSO

6 -- BELL'S THE ONE

1 -- FRANK'S ROCKETTE

3 -- INTHEMIDSTOFBIZ

RACE 8 -- FIRST LADY STAKES -- GI -- $400K -- ONE MILE (TURF) 

3 -- ALTHIQA

5 -- HENDY WOODS

9 -- BLOWOUT

7 -- DADDY IS A LEGEND

RACE 9 -- BREEDERS CUP FUTURITY -- GI -- $500K -- 1-1/16TH MILES

5 -- DON'T WAIT UP 

3 -- STELLAR TAP 

13 -- CLASSIC CAUSEWAY

1 -- DOUBLE THUNDER

RACE 10 -- TURF MILE STAKES -- GI -- $750K -- ONE MILE (TURF) 

10 -- ORDER OF AUSTRIALIA

13 -- SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN

11 -- DIAMOND OOPS

7  -- PIXELATE 

THE PLAY

Race 6 starts a Pick 5, so let's go for it. Speed seemed to be holding up pretty well yesteday on opening day -- but it is way too early to say if that's going to be a track trend.  

We'll start with 2,4,6 in Race 6, go with 1,4,6 in Race 7 and then 3,9 in Race 8. Let's use 3.5.13 in Race 9 and then all four picks in Race 10 -- 7,10,11,13.  

Playing the .50 version of the Pick 5 gets us "in the game" for $108 and gives us good coverage. 

Keeping up on scratches today will be tough -- warning you in advance --  I've got another commitment this afternoon....but with the forecast dry, sunny and in the mid 80's -- I can't see too many bailing out today

Good luck!

paulie

CHURCHILL RESULTS -- 10/2/21

A interesting, if a bit strange, final four races at Churchill yesterday.

I gave you 16 horses to consider, and had to jump back in to take care of a couple of scratches in the two stakes races of the four I handicapped. Out of the picks I had just two winners, three seconds and two thirds.  A 43% "in the money" isn't up to my usual standards. 58% success in hitting the "payable" spots isn't great either. 

KNICKS GO (2/5) played with the field in the Lukas Classic Stakes before going on to win. INDEPENDENCE HALL followed him home for second and I did have those two picks. It was a nice Breeders Cup tune up for Brad Cox's horse and Joel Rosario did enough to make sure he won and didn't get into any trouble

Race 9 was a disaster. I didn't get any of my four picks in the money. 6-1 SHE CAN"T SING, with Javier Castellano in saddle probably should have been one of my four picks for the racce, butI liked others better. Shows what I know, right? 

In the ACK ACK Stakes, PLAINSMAN (5-1) got it done for Brad Cox and Joel Rosario again. I did lke that one as well as the heavy favorite BEAU LIAM who ran second. 

In the nightcap it was bombs away with 20-1 HAPPY AMERICAN upsetting the rest. I had the second, third and fourth place finishers but could not come up with the Neal Pessin trained, James Graham ridden winner. (You know that James Graham -- he's a cracker) 

The Pick 4 payout (2-11-7-7) was good, not great paying $648.20 on the .50 cent wager. I didn't have it, and congrats if you did, 

The horses move to Keeneland next week. We'll try our luck there.

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS PICKS -- 10/2/21

 A huge card at Churchill today with two stakes and a very competitive allowance race mixed in the final four race of the day . Let's jump into it! 

RACE 8 -- LUKAS CLASSIC -- GIII -- $400K -- 1-1/8TH MILE

2 -- KNICKS GO

3 -- TACITUS

5 --INDEPENDENCE HALL

6 -- SPRAWL 

RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- $141K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

9 -- PORTAL CREEK 

8 - HIMIKO 

6 -- VELVET CRUSH

1 -- GRAND CRU CLASSIC

RACE 10 -- THE ACK ACK STAKES -- GII -- $300k -- ONE MILE

10 -- BEAU LIAM

7 -- PLAINSMAN

9 -- SOUTH BEND

6 -- ALOHA WEST SCRATCH

8 -- ATOKA

RACE 11 -- ALLOWANCE -- $127K -- 1-1/8TH MILE

4 -- LAUGHING BOY

10 -- RUNNIN RAY

9 -- CALIBRATE

13 -- FIRST  LINE SCRATCH

12 -- CHEFFY

I'll try to jump in later in the day with any scratches and changes in my picks, if they occur. 

THE PLAY

I'll chase a late Pick 4, going two deep in Race 8 (2,3), and then taking all four of my picks in Race 9 - 11. 

Cost: $64

2,3/1,6,8,9/6,7,9,10/4.9.10,13

Good luck today! 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS RESULTS -- 9/25/21

 So, it wasn't the best day for handicapping for me at Churchill Saturday. I gave out 16 horses that I thought might do well in the final four races, and had two winners, two seconds and a third. That 31% "in the money" number isn't very good at all. Filling five of the 12 "payable spots equates out to 42%, and that much lower than I usually hit. (Mama said there would be days like this). 

Race 8 -- CARRIBEAN CAPER (2/5) took a lot of money and Colby Hernandez got the job done for Al Stall. I also had SOMEONE SAID SO for second. My top pick Patty H was a disappointment. 

Race 9 -- KING FURY lived up to the 1/2 post time odds and secured a win for Brian Hernandez. Jr and Kenny McPeek in the Bourbon Trail. I also had DR.JACK for second. 

Race 10 -- In the Harrods Creek Stakes, I drew a goose egg. Everett's Song (13-1) was the longshot winner, with Pablo Morales along for the ride. 

Race 11. -- This was the "woulda, coulda,shouda" race. I debated long and hard about including Howling Time (5-1) in my top four picks but didn't. He took the final with Joe Talamo riding for Dale Romans.  My top pick, BACK TO NORMAL managed third. 

The Pick 4  (2-4-10-6) got you $139.80 on a .50 wager.  

We'll dust ourselves off, get up after the knockout pinch and get back on our feet for next week. 

paulie  

CHURCHILL DOWNS PICKS -- 9/25/21

 A nice card today at the twin spires on Central Avenue, and we'll look at the final four races at Churchill -- three stakes races and a high level maiden special weight. 

RACE8 -- DOGWOOD STAKES -- GIII-- $275K --  SEVEN FURLONGS

6 -- PATTY H

2 -- CARRIBEAN CAPER

3 -- LIL TOOTSIE (scratched) 

5 -- SHE'S A MYSTERY

7 -- SOMEONE SAID SO

RACE 9 -- BOURBON TRAIL STAKES -- $275K -- 1-3/16TH MILE

4 -- KING FURY

7 -- SERMONONTHEMOUNT

3 -- DR JACK

2 -- KING'S OVATION

RACE 10 -- HARRODS CREEK STAKES -- $275K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

1 -- DREAMER'S DISEASE

7 -- IRISH UNITY

5-- EMERALS FOREST

3 -- BOB'S EDGE

RACE 11 -- MAIDEN -- $120K -- SIX FURLONGS

4 --BACK TO NORMAL

9 -- CHASING TIME

7 -- BRAWNDO

2 -- LEDDY

(I'LL CHECK IN LATER WITH ANY SCRATCHES -- BE SURE TO CHECK BACK AS RACE 8 GETS CLOSE....AROUND 4:20 PM)

The play

Let's keep it simple today and return to one of my favorite Pick 4 wager tactics -- taking my top four picks. It's a $128 wager. 

2,5,6,7/2,3,4,7/1,3,5,7/2,4,7,9

GOOD LUCK! 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS RESULTS -- 9/18/21

 Downs After Dark at Churchill provided some great quality stakes racing, the UofL men and women's squads and a clean sweep of winners for Paulie and his picks. Let's take a look  I gave you 20 horses to consider over five races, out of those, I had five winners, two places and four shows for a 55% "in the money" percentage. I filled 11 of the 15 "payable" spots also -- for a 73% success rate

Race 3 -- SCONSIN (9/5) held off BELL'S THE ONE to win the Open Mind Stakes. I had those two, plus MUNDAYE CALL, who got third. Tyler Gaffalone had the winning ride and the trifecta paid $5.50. 

Race 7 -- JUST MIGHT took the LTS Stakes with Rafael Bejarano on board and went off at 3-1 odds. I had that one and BANGO who got third. $24.35 on the .50 trifecta. 

Race 8 -- HIDDEN CONNECTION (9/5) blew away the competition in the Pocahontas to win by a bus length. I had that one and GODDESS OF FIRE for third. It was jockey Reylu Gutierrez first win at Churchill.  A handsome trifecta paid $228 on the .50 wager. 

Race 9 -- MAJOR GENERAL (9/2) upset huge favorite Stellar Tap and the rest of the field in the Iroquois. I had him. Javier Castellano getting this one up just in time. Two longshots followed him home to make for an huge $1162,75 trifecta.

Race 10 -- SHEDARESTHEDEVIL was impressive in the Locust Grove at 8/5 odds for Florent Geroux. I had that one and CRYSTL BALL for second and ENVOUTANTE for third. The trifecta returned $4.60.

As I've said here many times before -- I can pick winners, I just can't pick what they pay. I did get an e-mail from a reader, who went after the Pick 5 with my top two picks in races 7-10 and then "bet them all" in Race 11. That cost him $80 on a .50 cent Pick 5 and he got back $749. Not a bad return at all. I opted to bet trifectas and actually lost money on my five bets, despite winning three of them. Sometimes it's not how much you bet but how you bet. 

It's good to see racing back at Churchill, even if it's all dirt. (They're reseeding the Turf Course). We'll give it a go next week.   

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS PICKS -- 9/18/21

 Racing returns to Churchill Downs for the September Meet and there are five stakes races on a Saturday night card -- Downs After Dark. 

RACE 3 -- OPEN MIND STAKES -- $300K -- SIX FURLONGS

2 -- SCONSIN

5 -- BELL'S THE ONE

1 -- MUNDAYE CALL 

3 -- AIN'T NO ELMERS

RACE 7 -- LOUISVILLE THOROUGHBRED SOCIETY STAKES -- $275k -- SIX FURLONGS

3 -- JUST MIGHT

5 -- BANGO 

6 -- MIGHTY MISCHIEF

1 -- DENNIS' MOMENT 

RACE 8 -- POCAHONTIS STAKES -- GII -- $200K -- 1-1/16TH MILES

10 -- LEMIEUX

9 -- HIDDEN CONNECTION

4 -- ONTHEONESANDTWOS

2 -- GODDESS OF FIRE

RACE 9 -- IROQUOIS STAKES -- GIII -- $300K -- 1-1/6TH MILES

6 -- STELLAR TAP

8 -- MAJOR GENERAL

9 -- GUNTOWN

11 -- BOURBON HEIST

RACE 10 -- LOCUST GROVE STAKES -- GIII -- $400K -- 1-1/16TH MILES

7 -- SHEDARESTHEDEVIL

6 -- OUR SUPER FREAK

1 -- CRYSTAL BALL 

5 -- ENVOUTANTE

THE PLAY:: 

It is opening week at Churchill, so I'm going to take a bit of a conservative approach on wagering until I can get a feel on how the track is playing. 

I'll probably do .50 trifectas on my top four picks in all five stakes races. There is a Pick 5 that starts in Race 7, but I'll pass -- no obvious "singles" that stand out to lessen that kind of wager. 

Good luck!

paulie

KENTUCKY DOWNS RESULTS -- 9/11/21

 It was a beautiful day forr racing at Kentucky Downs Saturday. That being said, my handicapping skills took a swift kick in the rump on the five stakes races I tried to predict. 

After scratches, I had 24 runners go forth. Out of those, a mere one winner, three places and one show. That 21% "in the money" didn't get me anything. Out of 15 "payable" sports, I filled five -- for 33%

. 

RACE 6 -- IN GOOD SPIRITS (14-1) got to the wire first in the spring. I did have CATCH A BID, who gathered place money. Letting a John Velasquez runner for Al Stall go off a 14-1 can burn you occasionally and it did here.

RACE 7 -- PRINCESS GRACE (1-1) broke dead last but started to rally halfway through the mile race and took the lead in the stretch. They couldn't catch her. A nice ride by Florent Geroux. DALIKA, another of my picks, was trying and finished second. 

RACE 8 -- GEAR JOCKEY (5-1) grabbed the lead at the top of the stretch in the mile race and steadily pulled away from the rest. Jose Lezcano on board. 

RACE 9 -- IMPERADOR (9-1) battled the unlucky ARKLOW down the stretch in the 1-1/2 mile Turf Cup. Joe Talamo with the prolonged stretch run 

RACE 10 -- THE LIR JET (8-1) took the Franklin-Simpson and used a nice stretch run with Tyler Gaffalione on to to do it. 

Europeans won the last two. I shoulda known better than to leave them out. They do love the turf. 

Somedays, you just get beat. 

paulie

KENTUCKY DOWNS ENTRIES -- 9/11/21

 

Let's go to the Kentucky/Tennessee border today for racing at Kentucky Downs. The all-turf track only runs a couple of weeks a year, but consistently brings in the best owners, trainers and jockeys. 

There are five stakes races there today -- two Grade II's and three Grade III's -- and full fields for all. Let's take a look. 

RACE 6 -- LADIES SPRINT -- GIII -- $600K -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) 

10 -- VENETIAN HARBOR

6 -- SUPERSTITION

4 -- YES IT'S GINGER

8 -- CATCH A BID

(If scratches occur: 8 -- JEANIE B ) 

RACE 7 -- LADIES TURF -- GIII -- $750K -- ONE MILE (TURF) 

2 -- PRINCESS GRACE

8 -- SUMMER IN SARATOGA

9 -- DALIKA

5 -- SHE'SONTHEWARPATH 

(If scratches occur: 3 -- ABSCOND) 

RACE 8 -- TURF SPRINT -- GIII -- $I MILLION -- 6 FURLONGS  (TURF) 

9 -- GOT STORMY

7 -- CASA CREED

5 -- BORN GREAT

2 -- FAST BOAT

(If scratches occur: 3 -- BOMBARD)

RACE 9 -- TURF CUP -- GII -- $1 MILLION -- 1-1/2 MILES (TURF)

3 -- CHANNEL CAT

5 --ARKLOW

9 -- GLYNN COUNTY

11 -- ZULU ALPHA (scratched)

(If scratches occur: 6 -- BLUEGRASS PARKWAY) (scratched)  4 -- TIDE OF THE SEA

RACE 10 -- FRANKLIN-SIMPSON STAKES -- GII -- $600K -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF)

6 -- NEXT

10 -- POINT ME BY 

11 -- BODENHEIMER

7 -- ANNEX

(If scratches occur: 3 -- COUNTY FINAL)

The Play: 

There is no Pick 5 that covers these five races (Races 6-10) and that's a shame...but there are Pick 3's available, so let's shift gears this week and try a few of those. Starting in Race 6, if we take my top four picks in Races 6,7 and 8, we can get a Pick 3 in for just $32. Doing the same in Races 7,8 and 9...and then again in Races 8,9,10 gets you out for less that $100. 

Although the weather looks warm and sunny and the turf should be firm, there's always the possibility of scratches, so keep your eye open for them. 

Best of luck! 

paulie

SARATOGA RESULTS -- 9/4/21

 A fine day of racing yesterday at the Spa and good results, as Saratoga looks to close out their summer meet. I handicapped Races 8-12 there and gave you 20 horses over these five races. I had one scratch, so 19 picks went to post for me. Out of those, I had five winners, five places and five shows. That's a very decent 74.5% "in the money" rate for my picks. When you consider there were 15 "payable" up for grabs in the five races and I grabbed 14 of them, that's a 93.3% success rate. 

RACE 8 -- PUBLIC SECTOR (6/5) took the Saranac Stakes convincingly and I had that one, plus second place finisher NEVER SURRENDER and show grabber LIKE THE KING. Irad Ortiz got the job done for Chad Brown. $23 on the $1 trifecta. 

RACE 9 -- CARA'S DREAMER (7/2) employed a huge stretch move to blow by the field and get this allowance win. JUSTOKISNOTOK battled the others for second and got it for me. Dylan Davis did the piloting for Mitchell Friedman. 

RACE 10 -- BABY YODA (6-1) looked really good with a lengthening stretch run to get first place. I had this one, plu OLYMPIAD in second and DUCATE in third. Jose Ortiz was the winning rider for Billy Mott and the $1 trifecta got you $121,74

RACE 11 -- In the Flower Bowl Stakes, there was no doubt who would get this one as they turned into the stretch and WAR LIKE GODDESS (2/5) won going away. I had GREAT ISALND for place and MYSISTERNAT for show. I got $106.20 back on the Grand Slam. Julian Leparoux did the work for Billy Mott. The $1 trifecta was a small $14. 

RACE 12 -- MAX PLAYER (7/2) proved to be still quite the horse and took the Jockey Club Stakes  HAPPY SAVER got second and FORZA DI ORO finished third. Ricardo Santana did the piloting for good ol' Steve Asmussen. The trifecta returned $27.50 and the Pick 5 paid $360 on the .50 cent wager. 

It was a good day. Let's hope they continue. 

paulie

SARATOGA ENTRIES -- 9/4/21

 

First off -- Happy Labor Day Weekend to you! However you decide to spend it, enjoy it. 

I had originally suggested I would handicap Kentucky Downs today. Well, guess what? They don't start until tomorrow (Sunday), so we'll go back to Saratoga for a strong card that had three stakes races and three on the grass. 

Here we go: 

RACE 8 -- SARANAC STAKES -- GIII -- $200K -- 1-1/16TH MILE -- (TURF) 

1 -- PUBLIC SECTOR

2 -- LIKE THE KING

4 -- NEVER SURRENDER

5 -- FOUNDER

RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE -- $90K -- 1-1/16TH MILE -- (TURF) 

2 -- ELECTRIC YOUTH

1A -- CARA'S DREAMER

6 -- JUST OK IS NOT OK

5 -- GOLDEN OLDIE

RACE 10 -- ALLOWANCE -- $103K -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS

3 -- DUCALE

6 -- OLYMPIAD

8 -- BABY YODA

10 -- HOMETOWN

RACE 11 -- FLOWER BOWL STAKES -- GI -- $600K -- 1-3/8TH MILE -- (TURF) 

3 -- WAR LIKE GODDESS

4 -- MY SISTER NAT

6 -- GREAT ISLAND

7 -- COASTANA

RACE 12 -- JOCKEY CLUB GOLD STAKES -- GI -- $1 MILLION -- 1-14TH MILE

2 -- MAX PLAYER

1 -- FORZA DI ORO

4 -- HAPPY SAVER

5 -- NIGHT OPS

THE PLAY: 

There are several ways to go after this five race sequence, including a .50 cent Pick 5. There is also a Grand Slam from races 8-11 and I used to love to play those. So, let's go with the Pick 5 first. I'll single War Like goddess in the Flower Bowl, go three deep in Races 8-10 and go four deep in the Jockey Club Gold Stakes.

1,2,4/1A,2,6/3,6,8/3/1,2,4,5 -- cost $54

In the Grand Slam, which costs a $1...I'll go four deep in Races 8-10 and single War Like Goddess in the final 

1,2,4,5/1A,2,5,6/3,6,8,10/3 -- cost $64

I'll try to get back in here with any scratches...Good luck ! 

paulie

SARATOGA RESULTS -- 8/28/21

 On the biggest day of racing at the Saratoga meet -- Travers Day -- the racing was excellent and the results pretty good too. 

I looked at the Pick 6 sequence (races 7-12) and gave you 24 selections (four per race). There were no scratches on any of my picks. Out of those selections, I had six winners, three seconds and three thirds. That's a 50% success rate. When you figure there were 18 "payable" spots available and I filled 12 of them, that's a 66% success rate. 

I wondered whether the track would be the "graveyard of favorites" or the "favorites to the winner's circle" yesterday, and, the favorites held sway in the Pick 6 races. 5/2 was the highest winning payout out of the Pick 6 sequence.  Here's how it went: 

Race 7 -- Ballerina Stakes -- GAMINE (2/5) was much the best and I had her and the third place finisher CeCe.  Johnny V and Bob Baffert may just have the best older filly and mare in racing this year in Gamine. An impressive 1:21:61  for the seven furlongs.

Race 8 -- Forego Stakes -- Favorite YAUPON (2-1) got to the wire first and I gave you that one. Ricardo Santana and Steve Asmussen teamed up for the win. The seen furlongs were contested in 1:21:74, just a tad slower than the Ballerina Stakes. This one will long be remembered for FIRENZE FIRE trying to bite YAUPON as the two battled down the stretch. Who did he think he was, Mike Tyson? 

Race 9 -- Allen Jerkins Memorial Stakes -- JACKIE'S WARRIOR (3/2) is a beast and had no trouble with the rest. I gave you that one, plus Life Is Good for second and Following Sea for third.  Asmussen again, with Joel Rosario riding.  The Pick 3 paid a paltry $17.40 on the $1 bet. The time of 1:21:39 for the seven furlongs beat the winning times for the Ballerina and Forego. 

Race 10 -- Personal Ensign Stakes -- LETRUSKA was the 3/5 favorite and ran like it. I had that one. Trained by Fausto Gutierrez  and ridden by Irad Ortiz, they held off Bonny South in the stretch. LETRUSKA was probably my "best bet" of the day, if I did such things, and paid $3.50 on a $2 win bet. 

Race 11 -- Sword Dancer Stakes -- GUFO went off at 5/2 and proven to be the best, holding off Japan. I had both of those, plus third place finisher Cross Border. Joel Rosario got his second win of the Pick 6 sequence, and Gufo is trained by Christophe Clement. 

Race 12 -- The Travers -- Most figured this to be a two horse race, but ESSENTIAL QUALITY (1/2) took control in the stretch and said "See Ya!" to the rest. I gave you him and the second place runner Midnight Bourbon. Brad Cox trained and ridden by Luis Saez, they covered the Derby distance of 1-1/4 miles in 2:01:96. This Pick 3 paid $29.80 on the $1 try and the Pick 6 returned $226.00 on a $1 wager. 

We can pick the winners, and we did yesterday, we just can't pick what we'll get paid. 

We'll give it go next week. They'll be running at Kentucky Downs over the Labor Day weekend and it's always fun to try and figure out the fields on that turf course. 

paulie 

SARATOGA SELECTIONS -- 8/28/21

 

What a day for racing today at Saratoga!  A total of six, Grade I Stakes races -- culminating with the Travers!  And, a rarity, all of them on the dirt. 

First off, though, an apology for not listing the results here at the site from last Saturday. I was disgusted, quite honestly. I successfully hit the late Pick4 and got a whopping $12 back for my (much larger than that) investment. The "graveyard of favorites" wasn't last Saturday. As we like to say here: "We can pick winners, we just can't pick what we'll get paid". That was oh, so, true last Saturday.  Plus, last Sunday was a crazy day -- my dear wife took a tumble Saturday afternoon that necessitated a trip to the emergency room Sunday and a diagnosis that she had broken her wrist . 

You never fully realize or appreciate what a spouse or partner does in a week until you basically have to do it for them. With her right wrist in a cast, I've been her assistant, driver, writer and much more. 

But, onto the card AND THE PICKS! I'll try to jump in and check the scratches closer to post time and list them. 

RACE 7 -- BALLERINA STAKES -- GI -- $500K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

1 -- GAMINE

5 -- SCONSIN

7 -- CECE

6 -- ESTILO TALENTOSO

RACE 8 -- FOREGO STAKES -- GI -- $600K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

1 -- MISCHEVIOUS ALEX

3 -- LEXITONIAN

2 -- WHITMORE

7 -- YAUPON

RACE 9 -- ALLEN JERKINS MEMORIAL -- GI -- $500K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

2 -- JACKIE'S WARRIOR

6 -- LIFE IS GOOD

4 -- FOLLOWING SEA

1 -- DRAIN THE CLOCK

RACE 10 -- PERSONAL ENSIGN STAKES -- GI -- $600K -- 1-1/8 MILE

6 -- LETRUSKA

9 -- GRACEFUL PRINCESS

4 -- SWISS SKYDIVER

 8 -- HARVEY'S LIL GOIL

RACE 11 -- SWORD DANCER STAKES -- GI -- $750K -- 1-1/2 MILE

1 -- TRIBHUVAN 

2 -- GUFO 

6 -- JAPAN

7 -- CROSS BORDER

RACE 12 -- THE TRAVERS -- GI --$1.25 MILLION -- 1-1/4 MILE

2 -- ESSENTIAL QUALITY

1 -- MIDNIGHT BOURBON

4 -- DYNAMIC ONE

3 -- KEEPMEINMIND

THE PLAY

A Pick 6 starts with Race 7 and the temptation is there to chase it. The question is, will it be "favorites rule" at the Spa like it was last Saturday, or "the graveyard of favorites" today? 

I put together a very playable $1 Pick ticket that cost a mere $36. It has two "singles" in it and I'll disclose it here: 

1/1,2,3/2/4.6/1,2,6/1,2

What I'll most likely do, though, is chase a couple of Pick 3's (races 7-9 and races 10-12) with my top four picks in each. The .50 cent wager would run you $32 each. 

Races 7-9:  1,5,6,7/1,2,3,7/1,2,4,6

Races 10-12:  4,6,8,9/1,2,6 7/1,2,3,4

You could play the entire outlay here for an even $100 if you choose. No matter how you chase it, good luck and enjoy this spectacular Saratoga card ! 

paulie

 

SARATOGA SELECTIONS -- 8/21/21

 I am returning to Saratoga Handicapping today despite my less that stellar results there over the past few weeks. If you want good racing in the summer months, it's the track to watch and I couldn't find another "card" as challenging, so. I'll try again. A nice mix of two turf and two dirt races and two stakes races, and a closing race that would be a stakes race if it wasn't a maiden afair, plus a challenging claimer to get the sequence started in Race 8 

~~~~~~~~UPDATED AT 12:15 PM WITH SCRATCHES/CHANGES~~~~~~~

RACE 8 -- CLAIMNG -- $75 K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

2 -- GOLANI BRIGADE

4 -- IDENTIFY POLITICS

8 -- THERISASTORMBREWIN

5 -- CHARLIE FIVE O

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO:  1 -- RESTORING HOPE) SCRATCHED

USE 3 -- VULCAN INSTEAD. 

RACE 9 -- LAKE PLACID STAKES -- GII -- $200K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF)

2 -- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

3 -- EGO TRIP 

6 -- SPANISH LOVE AFFAIR

1 -- ILLIOGAMI

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO:   4 -- RUNWAY RUMOR) 

RACE 10 -- ALABAMA STAKES -- GI -- $600K -- 1-1/TH MILES

6 -- MALATHATT

4 -- MARCUJA

2 -- WILL'S SECRET

3 -- CLAIRIERE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO:  7 -- ARMY WIFE

RACE 11 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- $100K -- 1 MILE (TURF)

12 -- PERFECT GRACE

4 -- SPLIT THEN DOUBLE  SCRATCHED

6 -- INGRESS

9 -- SO ENCHANTING

7 -- MISS BONNIE T  SCRATCHED

(IF SCATCHES OCCUR/ALSO:  1 -- GAUFF) SCRATCHED

The play: 

I'll try the late Pick 4 -- starting in Race 8 -- with my top four picks. Let's just ride those top fur picks through the two stakes races (Races 9 - 10) and end  by going five deep in the maiden final. Since only five horses (as of 12:30) were scheduled for the final, let's play them all except #2 Good Talk 

Good luck! 

Paulie

SARATOGA RESULTS -- 8/14/21

Not the day I had hoped for yesterday.

And -- another reason yesterday why Saratoga is known as the "graveyard of favorites". In the Late Pick 4 sequence yesterday, the odds of the winners were 4-1, 10-1, 13-1 and 8-1. 

I gave you 20 horses to consider and had one scratch. Out of those, I had two winners, three places and three shows. That is a 42% "in the money" rate andd not very good. I filled eight of the 12 "payable spots" for 66%, below my accustom success rate. 

The Pick 4 in Races 8-11 paid $4864.50 on the .50 cent wager. It's the third  straight week I have not hit it up there.

There comes a time when you realize your "system" isn't working at a particular track. You either adjust, wait to see if you system will eventually work or stop playing the track. 

We'll see which I choose when I give it a go next week. 

paulie