She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

Friday, May 20, 2022

PREAKNESS PICKS -- 5/21/22

Today we get the second leg of the triple crown -- The Preakness at Pimlico. 

With Rich Strike opting out, Epicenter deservedly gets the morning line favorite tag, but I do think he'll get a challenge from a few in here. The filly Secret Oath could challenge, Early Voting is getting a lot of backing and support and Creative Minister and Simplification wouldn't surprise too much, in my eyes, if they get the Black Eyed Susan garland. 

There is a nice Pick 4 that starts up there in Race 10 that ends with the Preakness and that's what I've handicapped for you today.

Good luck and I'll try to jump in if there are scratches or changes in my picks, 


RACE 10  JAMES W MURPHY STAKES -- 1 MILE (TURF)


10 -- JOE

5 -- READY TO PURRFORM

7 -- RIOT HOUSE  (scratched)

8 -- SHAKE EM LOOSE

2 -- LOCAL MOTIVE


RACE 11  SIR BARTON STAKES -- 1-1/16TH MILE (DIRT)


1 --ETHEREAL ROAD

5 -- B DAWG

8 -- UNIKEE

6 -- MR JEFFERSON


RACE 12 -- JIM MCKAY TURF SPRINT -- FIVE FURLONGS (TURF)


2 -- CAROTARI

7 -- GRATEFUL BRED

9 -- HOLLIS

3 -- SEVEN SECRETS


RACE 13 -- THE PREAKNESS -- 1-3/16TH MILES


8 -- EPICENTER

4 -- SECRET OATH

5 -- EARLY VOTING

6 -- CREATIVE MINISTER


As I always say, bet 'em however you like.  I fooled around with a few bets yesterday and favorites were getting routinely slaughtered in the final four on the card. 


paulie

Saturday, May 14, 2022

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 5/14/22

 Tonight is Downs After Dark at Churchill with a post time of 6 p.m.

We'll look at the late Pick 4, which starts in Race 8 


RACE 8 

6 -- QUICK TO BLAME

7 -- UNCLE BERLEY

2 -- MARVELOUSMOONDANCE

3 -- GRAPNEL


RACE 9 

5 -- TWILIGHT GLEAMING

2 -- MYSTIC EYES

3 -- MARGE'S KITCHEN

11 -- DEVINE CHARGER


RACE 10 

4 -- REMAIN ANONYMOUS

3 -- LIBERTY MD

5 -- GERRI B 

7 -- ALLWORTHY


RACE 11 

3 -- BEACHFRONT BID

2 -- SHE'S GONE

5 -- MY LILY MAE

8 -- PORONUI


Ill try to get back in with scratches tonight, 

GOOD LUCK abd olay 'em however you like


paulie

Friday, May 6, 2022

DERBY -- 5/7/22 -- SATURDAY CHURCHILL DOWNS


HAPPY DERBY DAY !!!


 Friday recap. On the 13 race card, I had 10 winners, 10 places and five shows. That's a 46% "in the money' number out of the total horses selected and 25 for 39 was a 64% filling of the payable spots. I'll take it !.

Betting wise, you know how I roll if you've followed the site. I play .50 Pick 4's with four horses in each leg. $128 per wager. I played four of them yesterday. Cost me $512. I got back a total of $1106. 

I'M NOT TRYING TO INFLUENCE YOU ON HOW TO BET, OF COURSE...but I get people ask me how I bet my picks, so...there it is. As I say, play 'em however you like. It's important to note that Friday's success doesn't mean I'll clean up on Saturday -- but, I had a profitable Keeneland meet and (so far) Churchill meet, and I'm "ahead for the year"  playing the Florida tracks and Oaklawn before they arrived in Kentucky...so why go changing? 


SATURDAY 


********UPDATED 8:15 AM*********

 

RACE 1

7 -- WARRIOR JONNY

10 - LOGICO

9 -- CONGRESSMAN

13 --  MONTOUK POINT 

NOTE: 14 -- GASOLINE DID GET IN THE RACE. I DID NOT FIGURE HE WOULD, BUT HE'LL FIGURE IN ANY WAGERING I MIGHT DO. NO PICK 4 HERE, THOUGH...FIRST ONE IS RACE 2. 


RACE 2 

4 -- SURFER DUDE

8 -- OSBOURNE

6 -- GREAT ESCAPE

2 -- STAYED IN FOR HALF


RACE 3

8 -- TALKING BOOK

7 -- FINAL BELLE

9 -- QUEEN BOURBON

3 -- LADY ROCKSTAR


RACE 4 

6 -- CREATIVE MINISTER

2 -- BYE BYE BOBBY

12 -- EMIRATES ROAD

1a -- VARATTI  (scratched) 

1 --  MCLAREN VALE


RACE 5

8 -- SPEAK OF THE DEVIL

5 -- WAKANAKA

6 -- LADY SPEIGHTSTOWN

7 -- IN ITALIAN


RACE 6 

2 -- SHARED SENSE

7 -- SOUTH BEND

4 -- DREAM SHAKE

10 -- MAJOR FED (scratched)

11 -- NECKER ISLAND


RACE 7

5 -- JACK CHRISTOPHER

11 -- MY PRANKSTER

1 -- MAJOR GENERAL

3 -- PAPPACAP


RACE 8 

2 -- JUST ONE TIME

4 -- KIMARI

6 -- BELL'S THE ONE

7 -- EDGEWAY


RACE 9

5 -- BAINIKHEV

7 -- SY DOG

2 -- MAIN EVENT

11 -- DOWAGIAC CHIEF

* I'll also add 9 -- STOLEN BASE -- into the mix. For all wagers. Got a tip on him*


RACE 10

1 -- ALPHA WEST

3 -- JACKIE'S WARRIOR

6 -- PREVALENCE

5 -- REINVESTMENT RISK


RACE 11

6 -- SHIRL'S SPEIGHT

8 -- ADHAMO

1 -- IVAR  (scratched)

4 -- TRIBHUVAN

5 -- MIRA MISSION


RACE 12  (DERBY)

3 -- EPICENTER

1 -- MO DONEGAL

10 -- ZANDON

5 -- SMILE HAPPY


RACE 13

9 -- MILITARIST

3 -- LIFE IS GOOD

11 -- LAUGHING BOY

7 -- STORM THE COURT


RACE 14

11 -- STROBE

12 -- BOURBON HEIST

6 -- MASTER OF ARMS

3 -- LUDWIG


I'll update Saturday morning with any scratches and/or changes. 

Play 'em however you like and Good Luck ! 


paulie




 






Thursday, May 5, 2022

OAKS -- 5/6/22 -- FRIDAY CHURCHILL DOWNS

 

( Thursday Recap -- Out of the 11 races I handicapped Thursday, I had six winners, seven places and seven shown.. That was a 20-44 (45%) "in the money" and I filled 20 out the 33 possible payout slots for 61% )


FRIDAY PICKS


RACE 1

3 -- IDIOMATIC

8 -- FANNY AND FREDDY

4 -- SEQUIST

2  -- IMOGENE MALVINA


RACE 2

11 -- INVENTING

8 -- BLAME THE CHAMPAGNE

10 -- MISREAD

3 -- SHE'S KEEN


RACE 3 

1 -- Q.F. SEVENTY FIVE

3 -- RED HORNET

4 -- MYOPIC

7 -- GRAEL


RACE 4 

7 -- JUJU'S MAP

5 -- SEMBLE JUSTE

8 -- ILLIOGAMI

3 -- POWDER RIVER


RACE 5 

8 -- BLEECKER STREET

7 -- CURLY RUTH

1 -- FLUFFY SOCKS

2 -- STAND TALL


RACE 6 

8 -- PAULINE'S PEARL

2 -- SHEDARESTHEDEVIL

4 -- BATTLE BLING

1 -- JILTED BRIDE


RACE 7 

1 -- MAX SAVER

3 -- OLYMPIAD

7 -- HAPPY SAVER

6 -- FULSOME


RACE 8 

5 -- DOLCE ZEL

10 -- DREAM LITH

8 -- SPICER

9 -- NEW YEAR'S EVE


RACE 9 

8 -- MATAREYA

3 -- MARISSA'S LADY

2 -- PRETTY BIRDIE

4 -- AIN'T EASY


RACE 10

11 -- JUST MIGHT

7 -- DIAMOND OOPS

10 -- ARREST ME RED

8 -- GEAR JOCKEY


RACE 11 (OAKS)

7 -- ECHO ZULU

10 -- KATHLEEN O

4 -- NEXT

1 -- SECRET OATH


RACE 12

9 -- WISH YOU WELL

4 -- SOCIETY

1 -- ONTHEONESANDTWOS

2 -- REAGAN'S DECISION


RACE 13

6 -- LITTLE BLAZE

7 -- FABULOUS FANNY

9 -- RATHER BE LUCKY

8 -- COLORFUL MISCHIEF


* It's supposed to be a wet Oaks Day, so I kept that in mind when handicapping.

* I'll try to keep up with scratches as best I can...and update the picks

* Play 'em anyway you like!


paulie


 

Thurby -- 5/5/22 -- Thursday Picks at Churchill

 

Welcome to Thurby !  

The Thursday races at Churchill Downs are commonly referred to "Louisville's Day at the Track" and an 11 race card is being offered today. 

If you go, you might want to consider a poncho. Rain is expected in the afternoon. 

I've handicapped the race and have all 11 races below. I'll jump back in later this morning with any scratches or chances, so be sure to check back


****************************************UPDATED 12:20 P.M.************************************* 


RACE 1

5 -- THE BOSS FACTOR

7 --  HIGH SPIRITS

8 -- YOUVESAIDITALL

3 -- HIGHER AUTHORITY


RACE 2 

1 -- EMPIRE OF MY OWN

6  -- DIVINE GRACE

4 -- DEVIOUS DAME

7 -- YOU CHOSE WISELY


RACE 3 

5 -- COVE BLUE

1 --RYE HUMOR    scratched

6 -- MUY CARO

9 -- DAVID'S GEM

2 -- ABUELO NUNO


RACE 4

6 -- BABY YODA

7 -- DIVINE LEADER

5 -- THE QUEENS JULES

3 -- WINDY CITY'RED


RACE 5 

4 -- ADVANCED PLACEMENT (scratched)

9 -- ENOUGH ALREADY

12 -- STICKY ISSUE

5 -- TWIRLING BLUES

8 -- FIELD MARSHALL



RACE 6 

4 -- BRONZE HALO

1 -- BIG BLUE LINE

7 -- DUAL THREAT

6 -- GUT FEELING  (scratched)

3 -- GROUP EIGHTEEN

RACE 7 

 4 -- DOWNTOWN ABBY

7 -- BELLE RUBELLE

2 -- SOCIAL DILEMNA

8 -- FLASHY CHARGE


RACE 8 

2 -- BEATBOX  (scratched)

5 -- MR DUMAS

9 -- GRAY'S FABLE

6 -- SET PIECE (scratched)

4 -- KENTUCKY GHOST    (scratched)

11 -- MAX K.O.

1 -- MONARCHS GLEN


RACE 9

1 -- TOM'S REGRET

11 -- HURRICANE DEBBIE

9 -- SIMPLY SUPER

3 -- KING ADCOCK


RACE 10

2 -- BROOKE MARIE

6 -- CATCH A BID

5 -- CHANGE OF CONTROL

7 -- GOIN GOOD


RACE 11 


5 -- SOMEBODY LOVES ME

10 -- TACHLIS

6 -- SWEET TRUFFLES

2 -- SHE'S GREEKANDSLEEK


Best of luck to you today !


paulie

Tuesday, May 3, 2022

Early Oaks and Derby Thoughts --Tuesday 5/3

 Now that the post positions have been assigned, let's take a look at the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby/

In the Oaks, I've liked three horses for awhile now, and that didn't change with the post assignment:


OAKS


10 -- Kathleen O  -- The Gulfstream Oaks win was impressive

7 -- Echo Zulu -- She showed she does no like to be passed in the Fair Grounds Oaks

4 -- Nest -- Her four-wide move on the turn and dominating stretch run in Ashland?  WOW !!

A longshot to consider:

1 -- Sacred Oath --Tried the boys, held her own and got third in Ark, Derby

:

In the Derby, I've wrestled with my top three for awhile now Here's what I got;


3 -- Epicenter -- I think his win in the Louisiana Derby was impressive. Rated, waited, pounced and pulled away.

1 -- Mo Donegal -- The win in the Wood was a closing nail biter but he flew that last furlong!

10 -- Zandon -- What a run in the Blue Grass ! From last to first and negotiated the traffic.  

A longshot to consider:

5 -- Smile Happy. -- 2nd in the Blue Grass and led in the stretch. That bump he got from Emmanual in the stretch probably cost him the win, in my opinion. 


paulie


Saturday, April 30, 2022

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 4/30

 

Opening night at Churchill Downs tonight and the start of Derby Week in Louisville. 

A nice opening card at Churchill, I'll concentrate on the late Pick 4 (Races 7-10) but will also offer a few suggestions in a couple of the earlier races. POST TIME IS 6 P.M. TONIGHT

Good luck tonight!

(I'll return with any changes/scratches later in the afternoon) 


UPDATED 6:50 p.m.


RACE 7 

5 -- BANDMATE

3 -- MY FAVORITE UNCLE

4 -- STRONG LIGHT

10 -- TRICOLOUR


RACE 8 

10 -- BAY STORM

6 -- STERLING MISS

4 -- CLARA PEETERS scratched

2 -- MAMBA WAMBA

9 -- spicy marg


RACE 9 

3 -- BAYERNESS

5 -- CARIBBEAN CAPER  scratched

4 -- CLUB CAR

2 -- CHEETARA


RACE 10 

6 -- OUT WORK'N

5 -- ISTHMIAN  scratched

4 -- KNIGHTLY MISCHIEF

7 -- MY  HOT TODDY

1 -- VASILEVSKIY


-- #5 SPEED BOAT LOOKS THE BEST OF THE FIELD IN RACE 1.

-- #2 MY MAN FLINSTONE DROPS DOWN TO HIS LOWEST CLAIMING PRICE IN SOME TIME IN RACE 2. FIRE SALE? KENNY MCPEEK CLAIMED HIM BACK. BULLET WORK LAST OUT. 

-- #1 FRILLS ON A THREE RACE WIN STREAK. MAYBE A SINGLE IN RACE 3? 

-- #6 MISS YEARWOOD JUST KEEPS GETTING BETTER AND BETTER IN RACE 6. LEPAROUX STAYS ON BOARD FOR IAN WILKES. 


paulie


-- 

Saturday, April 23, 2022

KEENELAND PICKS -- 4/23/22

 

A nice Saturday Card at Keeneland today, with the ELKHORN Stakes being the feature (race nine) 

HERE'S WHAT I GOT IN RACES 7-10


(Updated at 12:25 p.m.)


RACE 7

5 -- GAM'S MISSION

10 -- NICENO

8 -- MARKET REPORT

3 -- SWEET ENOUGH


RACE 8 

5 -- WARRANT

3 -- PROXY

3 -- DYNAMIC ONE

7 -- SCALDING


RACE 9

5 -- CHANNEL MARKER

1 -- BEMMA'S BOY

3 -- TWO EMMY'S

4 -- PHANTOM CURRENCY (scratched)

9 -- ANOTHER MYSTERY


RACE 10 

3 -- UNIKEE

1 -- GREAT ESCAPE  (scratched)

4 -- TOUGH TO TAME  (scratched)

9 -- B SUDD

2 -- CONDEMN

1A -- MOMENTUS


(I'll be back later today if any scratches occur, but the weather looks perfect for racing in Lexington)


paulie


Saturday, April 16, 2022

KEENELAND PICKS -- 4/16/22

 

Great card at Keeneland today, with three stakes races -- including the Jenny Wiley -- in the 11 races. Let's hope the rain stays away. I'm look at the Late Pick 4 (races 8-11)


RACE 8 


12 -- ELLE Z

3 -- CAMPANELLE

5 -- CHANGE OF CONTROL

11 -- GOIN' GOOD


RACE 9 


2 -- IN OUR TIME

9 -- TAWNY PORT

7 -- MAJOR GENERAL 

11 -- CALL ME MIDNIGHT


RACE 10 


3 -- SHANTISARA

4 -- REGAL GLORY

5 -- NAVRATILOVA

1 -- SCARABEA


RACE 11 


4 -- HIGHLY MOTIVATED

2 -- ESCAPE ROUTE

8 -- DUCALE

3 -- SOUP AND SANDWICH


Good luck today !  If scratches occur, I'll be back with the changes/updates. 


paulie

Saturday, April 9, 2022

KEENELAND PICKS -- 4/9/22

 Yes, they are back at Keeneland for the spring meet an a great Saturday Card awaits, with Kentucky Derby prep The Blue Grass Stakes as the feature

I'll look at races 6-9 today. A Pick 4 available and four challenging stakes races in the sequence.


RACE 6 -- THE APPALACHIAN 

3 -- SPENARELLA

4 -- DOLCE ZEL 

7 -- OURAIKA

2 -- AN AGENT MISTAKE


RACE 7 -- THE MADISON

3 -- LADY ROCKET

5 -- BELL'S THE ONE

6 -- KIMARI

4 -- JUST ONE TIME


RACE 8 -- THE SHAKERTOWN


10 -- GOLDEN PAL

5 -- BARRAZA

11 -- JUST MIGHT

6 -- THE LIR JET


RACE 9 -- BLUE GRASS


10 -- SMILE HAPPY

4 -- ZANDON

6 -- EMMANUEL

9 -- RATTLE N ROLL


I'll update later this afternoon with any scratches.


Irad Ortiz owned the track yesterday on opening day with three straight wins to close out the day and he's well positioned with mounts to have another successful day Saturday.  It'll be a chilly Saturday with high of 48 (good day for Burgoo !) but low chance of rain for the card. 


Good luck and play 'em however you like...


paulie

Saturday, April 2, 2022

ARKANSAS, JEFF RUBY AND FLORIDA DERBY PICKS 4/2/22

 A big day on the Derby trail today, with prep races Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn and Floridaa Derby at Gulfstream


I like SECRET OATH at Oaklawn in the Arkansas Derby. The filly is undefeated at the track and shold best the boys in at 1-1/8th distance. Give me CYBERKNIFE for second and DOPPELGANGER to show. 


In Florida, SIMPLIFICATION is the top pick, followed by WHITE ABARRIO for second and CLASSIC CAUSEWAY to show. 


Let's not forget the Jeff Ruby Stakes up at Turfway today either, where TIZ THE BOMB tries the polytrack against a full field of contenders, including a couple of others I like, too in CONSTITUTIONLAWYER and STOLEN BASE 


I'll try the Late Pick 4 at Gulfstream today for wagering. Four stakes races to close out the card and a huge "Hall of Fame" jockey colony riding...


*******************UPDATED At 1:53 PM*********************


RACE 11 


1 -- MISCHEVIOUS KISS

9 -- MY PHILLY TWIRL

6 -- SHAD NATION

8 -- AMBITIEUSE


RACE 12 

7 -- KATHLEEN O 

5 -- GODDESS OF FIRE

2 -- CATICHE  (Scratched)

4 -- RUNNING LEGACY

3 -- AMANIE'S IMAGE


RACE 13 


9 -- ENGLISH BEA

7 -- PHANTOM CURRENCY

3 -- WOLFIE'S DYNAHOST

2 -- SCARLETT SKY


RACE 14 


3 -- SIMPLIFICATION

7 -- WHITE ABARRIO

6 -- CHARGE IT

9 -- O CAPTAIN


Good luck today, and I'll pop back in with any scratches/changes today as needed -- rain is expected at Gulfstream today. 


paulie 



Saturday, March 12, 2022

TAMPA BAY PICKS -- 3-12-22

 

Welcome back to another season of PAULIE'S PICKS !


There's big racing going on today inTampa that could affect the Derby Trail with the Tampa Bay Derby, so we'll look at that race and a few other stakes races down there today.  It hardly seems like spring here in Louisville with snow on the ground and temperature in the 20's  so we'll just stay indoors and watching racing in a warm climate ! 


RACE 8 -- CHALLENGER STAKES 

3 -- GREATEST HONOR

4 -- DYNAMIC ONE

7 -- TUNE IN

10 -- SHIRL'S SPEIGHT   (scratched)

9 -- CODY'S WISH


RACE 9 -- FLORIDA OAKS

1  -- MRS BARBARA

3 -- DOLCE ZEL

6 -- SPICER

9 -- AMBITIEUSE


RACE 10 -- COLUMBIA STAKES 

2 -- WAKE SURF

3 -- KITTEN MISCHIEF

5 -- HEAVEN STREET

6 -- FORT WASHINGTON


RACE 11 TAMPA BAY DERBY

4 -- CLASSIC CAUSEWAY

8 -- MAJOR GENERAL

7 -- STRIKE HARD    (scratched)

9 -- SHIPSATIONAL

5 -- GIANT GAME


Play 'em however you like. I'll try a Pick 4 with all four of my picks in each of the four races. The .50 cent wager will cost $128. CWe'll start it in Race 8 and have for stakes races in it.

I'll watch for scratches, since it's supposed to be a rainy day at Tampa, and will try to get in here to update if needed. 


Welcome back !'

paulie 



Saturday, January 29, 2022

GULFSTREAM PICKS -- 1/28/21

 

Hi there, ho there -- hello there !

Yep, been away awhile and don't usually resurface until the spring, but with the huge Pegasus Day card at Gulfstream today and our city paralyzed by the snow squall yesterday, it's a good day to stay inside and watch horseracing, right?  

I'm going to try the late Pick 4 at Gulfstream. Here we go:

RACE 9:

4 --Regal Glory

1 -- Sweet Melania

8 -- Summer in Sartoga

5 -- Gift List

RACE 10: 

7 -- Dennis Moment

8 -- Speakers Corner

6 --Liam

1 -- Fearless

5 -- Shivaree

RACE 11: 

6 -- Colonel Liam

8 -- Sacred Life

12  -- Never Surprised

10 -- Channel Cat

RACE 12: 

1  -- Knicks Go

4 -- Life Is Good

(Note: I'm going just two deep in Race 12. If you want to go deeper, maybe try 2 -- Chess Chief and/or 3 -- Stilleto. I see it as a two-horse race, though.


TOTAL WAGER COST ON THE .50 PICK FOUR:  $80

If there are scratches, I'll jump in and make the necessary changes. 


paulie