She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

Saturday, September 24, 2022

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 9/24/22

 

It's "Downs After Dark" tonight at Churchill with the first post at 6 p.m.  A nice card that has stakes races from Race 7 through Race 10. I've handicapped those and a strong maiden race in the finale -- Race 11. 


RACE 7 -- SENECA OVERNIGHT STAKES


5 -- COCKTAIL MOMENTS

6 -- SKRATCH CAT

3 -- FALCONET

1 -- TURNERLOOSE


RACE 8 -- HARRODS CREEK STAKES


7 -- GUNITE

4 -- CONAGHER

6 -- STRAVA

2 -- DOUBLE THUNDER


RACE 9 -- DOGWOOD STAKES


1 -- ECHO ZULU

7 -- WICKED HALO  scratched

4 -- TARABI

6 -- LAST LEAF

5 -- GUNNING



RACE 10 -- BOURBON TRAIL STAKES


4 -- WARRIOR JOHNY

2 -- HOME BREW

7 -- GILDED AGE

3 -- SAINT TAPIT


RACE 11 -- mAIDEN SPECAIL WEIGHT


8 -- THROUGH THE CRACKS

2 -- PEACEFUL MOMENT

4 -- DOOIT

9 -- BIRDIE ROSE


paulie




Saturday, September 17, 2022

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 9/17/22

They're back at the Twin Spires for the middle of September and a VERY GOOF card at Churchill this Saturday ! 

We'll look at the final five races -- The Open Mind, Locust Grove, Iroquois and Pocahontis, plus a very competitive Louisville Thoroughbred Society high stakes affair. 

Good luck and I'll jump back in with any scratches later. 


RACE 7 -- OPEN MIND STAKES

4 -- BELL'S THE ONE

1 -- SCONSIN

2 -- JOYFUL CADENCE

5 -- CLUB CAR  (SCRATCHED)


RACE 8 -- LOCUST GROVE -- G III

2 -- ENVOUTANTE

3 -- CRAZY BEAUTIFUL

5 -- PLAYED HARD

4 -- LIL TOOTSIE


RACE 9 -- IROQUOIS -- G III

3 -- DAMON'S MOUND

9 -- ECHO AGAIN

5 -- CURLY JACK

6 -- JACE'S ROAD


RACE 10 -- LOUISVILLE THOROUGHBRED SOCIETY

6 -- ISOLATE

4 -- NECKER'S ISLAND

5 -- MILES AHEAD

7 -- TOP GUNNER


RACE 11 -- POCAHONTAS --G III

5 -- GRAND LOVE

7 -- SOUTHLAWN

11 -- JUSTA WARRIOR

12 -- FRIENDLY PERSUASION




Saturday, September 10, 2022

KENTUCKY DOWNS PICKS -- 9/10/22

 

Back to the track on the border today, as Kentucky Downs features five stakes races to close out the card. Since Saratoga's meet has ended, some of the New York circuit jocks have invaded Kentucky Downs. Let's see how they do. 


UPDATED AT 12:46


RACE 8 -- LADIES TURF -- GRADE III


4 -- LADY SPEIGHTSPEARE  (scratched)

8 -- PRINCESS GRACE

3 -- HENDY WOODS

1 -- DALIKA

7 -- MARKET RUMOR


RACE 9 -- TURF SPRINT -- GRADE II


12 -- ARREST ME RED

2 -- CHEWING GUM

5 -- ARZAK

7 -- GREGORIAN CHANT  (SCRATCHED)

3 -- NECKER ISLAND


RACE 10 -- TURF CUP -- GRADE II 


8 -- GUFO

9 -- WHO'S THE STAR

4 -- ARKLOW

3 -- TEMPLE


RACE 11 -- LADIES SPRINT -- GRADE II


10 -- CAMPANELLE

1 -- BAY STORM

7 -- SHE CAN'T SING

11 -- IN GOOD SPIRITS


RACE 12 -- FRANKLIN-SIMPSON -- GRADE ii


6 -- BIG INVASION

9 -- STITCHED 

8 -- SUMTER

5 -- ALL IN SYNC


Play 'em however you like, we'll be back in later with any scratches/changes. 


paulie




Saturday, September 3, 2022

KENTUCKY DOWNS PICKS -- 9/3/22

 

OFF WE GO TO KENTUCKY DOWNS today for our Labor Day Weekend racing! They don't run off down there on the all-turf course and there's a strong jockey colony and trainer contingent hanging out on the Kentucky/Tenn border. 

Doing five races today (Races 7-11) and haven't decided just how I'll play them yet. 


RACE 7 

3 -- CC CRUISE CONTROL

4 -- KNOCKYOURSOCKSOFF

5 -- TOWHEAD

8 -- CARLIE'S GRIT


RACE 8 

3 -- MAYFIELD STRONG

5 -- CASTLEKNOCK

4 -- REALLY GOOD

8 -- DEER DISTRICT


RACE 9 

11 -- NOTA BENE

2 -- STOP WAR

12 -- TOCUH OF CLASS

9 -- SIGNIFY


RACE 10 

3 -- PIXELATE

6 -- MR DUMAS

9 -- ATONE

7 -- KENTUCKY GHOST


RACE 11 

8 -- JOYFUL APPLAUSE

7 -- FASCINATE

4 -- BALI KOTA

1 -- GUNESH


Good luck today and I'll be back in with any scratches/changes if and when they occur


paulie


Saturday, August 27, 2022

SARATOGA PICKS/TRAVERS DAY -- 8/27/22

 Another huge stakes Saturday at Saratoga with the Travers. Personal Ensign, Sword Dancer and Allen Jerkins all on tap in races 8 - 11. There's a Pick 4 for that sequence, so let's see if we can hit it. 


Updated 12:11 pm


RACE 8 -- ALLEN JERKINS STAKES -- GII

8 -- GUNITE

2  -- ACCRETIVE

6 -- JACK CHRISTOPHER

3 -- HOWLING TIME  (scratched}

1 -- CONAGHER


RACE 9 -- PERSONAL ENSIGN STAKES -- GI

3 -- CLAIRIERE

5 -- MALATHAAT

1 -- LETRUSKA

2 -- SEARCH RESULTS


RACE 10 -- SWORD DANCER STAKES -- GI

6 -- GUFO

9 -- CHANNEL MAKER

3 -- BROOME

10 -- MIRA MISSION


RACE 11 -- TRAVERS STAKES -- GI

6 -- EPICENTER

2 -- RICH STRIKE

1 -- CYBERKNIFE

7 -- EARLY VOTING


I'll jump back in with any scratches/changes.....good luck today !!


paulie


Saturday, August 20, 2022

SARATOGA PICKS -- 8/20/22

 

We'll return to Saratoga today to try a challenging card that has three Stakes Races and a competitive claiming race to close out the Saturday card. The GI Alabama sees the return of NEST, who I really liked in the Kentucky Oaks and Belmont Stakes this summer and SECRET OATH, who knocked Nest off in the Oaks. 


RACE 8 -- LAKE PLACID -- GII

4 -- CONSUMER SPENDING

2 -- WITH THE MOONLIGHT

5 -- DOLCE ZEL

6 -- HAUGHTY


RACE 9 -- SMART N FANCY 

3 -- ROBIN SPARKLES

7 -- ILLEGAL SMILE

1 -- CHANGE OF CONTROL

8 -- LADY EDITH


RACE 10 -- ALABAMA STAKES -- GI

4 -- NEST

7 -- SECRET OATH

1 -- SCRATCH KAT

3 -- GERRYMANDER


RACE 11

7 -- AVIANO

4 -- WICKED FAST

6 -- SARATOGA FLASK

12 -- BOX N SCORE


I'll be back later today to update any scratches...


paulie

Saturday, August 13, 2022

ARLINGTON MILLION AT CHURCHILL -- PICKS 8/13/22

 

A big day at Churchill this Saturday, with four nice stakes races, including the Arlington Million. 

For some reason, Churchill isn't running all four stakes races back-to-back, so we can't build a Pick 4 around them. There's also a plentitude of maiden races on today's card, so...bettor beware! We'll see how the new turf at Churchill is treating the runners. 

I've handicapped the stakes races, and, as always...play 'em anyway you like. 


RACE 5 -- BEVERLY D (GI) 

5 -- LILY POND

4 -- ROUGIR

3 -- PRINCESS GRACE

2 -- FAMILY WAY


RACE 7 -- LADY TAK 

2 -- SCONSIN

1 -- BELL'S THE ONE

4 -- LOVEMESOMEME

3 -- JOYFUL CADENCE


RACE 10 -- FT LARNED

6 -- INTREPID HEART

2 -- KING FURY

5 -- TWILIGHT BLUE

3 -- MR WIRELESS


RACE 11 -- ARLINGTON MILLION (GI) 

7 -- ADMISSIONS OFFICE

4 -- SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT

6 -- SANTIN

1 -- SET PIECE


I'LL JUMP IN WITH ANY SCRATCHES BEFORE THE FIRST RACE. 

paulie




Saturday, August 6, 2022

SARATOGA PICKS -- 8/6/22

 Welcome back and hello again! After a week off last week (vacation time, don't ya know...) I'm back and ready to earn a little money to pay for what I did/ ..

WE GO to SARATOGA today, a nice card that includes a late Pick 4 that has three Grade I's in it.  The Test, The Whitney and the Saratoga Derby. Here we go...


RACE 9 -- TEST

1 -- MATAREYA

2 -- STERLING SILVER

6 -- HOT PEPPERS

3 -- ELM DRIVE


RACE 10 -- WHITNEY

6 -- LIFE IS GOOD

2 -- HOT ROD CHARLIE

4 -- OLYMPIAD

1 -- AMERICAN REVOLUTION scratched

HAPPY SAVER


RACE 11 -- SARATOGA DERBY

6 -- ANNAPOLIS

11 --ETHERIAL ROAD

9 -- CLASSIC CAUSEWAY

10 -- STONE AGE


RACE 12 -- MSW

9 -- BIONDI

2 -- YOUR MISSION

8 -- DREAMPOINT

7 -- WALK EM DOWN


I'll be back later today to cover any scratches. Play 'em anyway you like and best of luck. 


paulie

Saturday, July 23, 2022

HASKELL DAY PICKS -- 7/23/22

 

Let's go to the Jersey shore today for a big , midsummer match at Monmouth in the Haskell Invitational . There is a nice All Stakes Pick 4 that runs from Races 9 to 12 so that'll be what I try to take down today. 


RACE 9

4 -- LADY ROCKSTAR

6 -- FLUFFY SOCKS

8 -- CORE VALUES

8 -- LEMISTA


RACE 10 

3 -- SEARCH RESULTS

7 -- BONNY SOUTH

5 -- BETH'S DREAM

4 -- ARMY WIFE


RACE 11 

4 -- TRIBHUVAN

10 -- GUFO

3 -- TEMPLE

1 -- ADHAMO


RACE 12 

7 -- JACK CHRISTOPHER

2 -- TAIBA

6 -- WHITE ABARRIO

1 -- CYBERKNIFE


Good luck today !


paulie

Saturday, July 16, 2022

ELLIS PARK PICKS -- 7/16/22

A hot summer day in Henderson, KY for racing at Ellis Park. And tough-to-handicap, competitive fields, as well.in the "pea patch".  As I've tried to do, I stick with the Kentuckt tracks -- the racing is undoubtedly better at Saratoga today, but I'm not as comfortable handicapping the New York Jockey colony or trainers -- muxh less the horses. So, it's off to Ellis I go: 


RACE 6

10 -- LAVISH HABITS

6 -- AMARI'S IMAGE

7 -- FANCY MARTINI

2 -- MAMA RINA

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 8 -- LADY ARSINOE)


RACE 7 

2 -- LEGIONNAIRE

3 -- WHAT'S UP DOC

6 -- UNCLE BERLEY

9 -- KINGFISHER

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 8 -- BLOW TORCH)


RACE 8 

6 -- CURRENT

8 -- BAMA BREEZE

5 -- NEXT

2 -- INTRADAY

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 7 -- ATTORNEY TIM)


RACE 9 

1 -- STELLA TERESA

3 -- RATHER BE LUCKY

5 -- TWENTYTWENTYHOAX

10 -- GET BY

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 6 -- BALI GOWN)


Good luck today and I'll try to get back to the site and make any changes, if necessary. 


paulie 

Saturday, July 9, 2022

ELLIS PARK PICKS 7/9/22

 The Kentucky horse racing circuit goes to Ellis Park for a couple of months now. It's not the greatest racing in the nation and the jockey colony isn't nearly as strong as it was at Keeneland or Churchill Downs, but the cards are full, they have turf racing and it's interesting handicapping. 

The exotics could pay a bunch today in this opening weekend. Since the best race of the day is arguably the fifth race, I've handicapped the final five races on the card. 


RACE 5 

1 -- SPEEDOMETER

3 -- DIVINE CHARGER

2 -- LITTLE MAMBO

4 -- BLAZING SUMMER

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 6-- MYSTIQUE SABOTEUR)


RACE 6

3 -- STAR POSE

10 -- SHE HAS THE LOOK

1 -- SICILIAN GRANDMA

4 -- LADY EVELYN CAN

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 9 -- BECKY THATCHER)


RACE 7 

7 -- REWARD NIGHT

10 -- COURAGEOUSLY

4 -- COOL RAGS

6 -- ELEVEN CONTROL

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 1 -- UNINVITED GUEST)


RACE 8 

2 -- QUEENS UP

4 -- REAGAN'S DECISION

9 -- CONSTITUTION LADY

1 -- TACHLIS

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 3 -- CHASING FIREFLIES)


RACE 9 

1 -- SHOGUN WARRIOR

9 -- HE'S AN ANGEL

2 -- OLD HICKORY

3 -- MY BROTHER CAM 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 12 -- FIELD MARSHAL)



Good luck today and play 'em anyway you like ! 


paulie

 


Saturday, July 2, 2022

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 7/2/22

 

A VERY NICE card at the ol' Twin Spires today for Stephan Foster Day and five stakes races (6-10), so we'll look at those to play today. 


RACE 6  -- TEPIN STAKES

4 -- WICKED HALO

8 -- PATNA  scratched

1 -- HEARTY CONSTITUTION

6 -- RUNAWAY WIFE   scratched

4 -- WICKED HALO

3 -- VERYLITTLECENTS


RACE 7   -- AMERICAN DERBY STAKES

9 -- RATTLE N ROLL

4 -- KITODAN

7 -- RED RUN

 10 -- WAR CAMPAIGN scratched

5 -- MCLAREN VALE


RACE 8  -- FLUER DE LIS STAKES

5 -- SHEDARESTHEDEVIL

1 -- SUPER QUICK

4 -- PAULINE'S PEARL

3 -- AVA'S GRACE


RACE 9  -- KELLY'S LANDING STAKES

5 -- BANGO

4 -- ALOHA WEST

9 -- MILES AHEAD

3 -- KNEEDEEPINSNOW


RACE 10 -- STEPHEN FOSTER STAKES

6 -- MANDALOUN

5 -- PROXY

3 -- OLYMPIAD

2 -- AMERICAN REVOLUTION


Enjoy your 4th of July weekend, good luck today, PLAY EM ANYWAY YOU LIKE, and stay cool !!


paulie


 

Saturday, June 18, 2022

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 6/18/22


Night racing tonight at the Twin Spires, which is probably a good thing, given the excessive heat we've had lately that cancelled Wednesday and Thursday Racing.  

Average fields tonight in the final four races --  but pretty evenly matched == so it could be a "big price" night. 

Here's what I got in Races 8-11. 


RACE 8

6 -- CONSPIRACY FACT 

3 -- WARRIOR JOHNY

1 -- CURLIN'S MALIBU

5 -- ACTIVE DUTY


RACE 9 

5 -- LORD DRAGON

9 -- PALACE COUP

1 -- CHANTRY FLATS

4 -- FROSTED GRACE


RACE 10 

9 -- TARABI

7 -- FAMED

2 -- ONTHEONESAND TWOS

4 -- CANCEL THIS


RACE 11 

10 -- LADY PELE

6 -- REPEALING

7 -- CLASSIC COYNE

6 -- ROYAL FLOWER


I'll keep an "eye out" for scratches and update as a can, 

JUST A NOTE FOR NEXT WEEK (6/25/22):

There will be no Paulie Picks next Saturday. My schedule has me busy all day. I hope to return to posting Paulie's Picks on July 2nd (7/2/22)


Good luck today,

paulie

Sunday, June 12, 2022

PROFIT/LOSS -- CHURCHILL PICKS 6/12/22

 

I didn't do as well on the Belmont wagering and picks as I hoped. Out of the 16 horses I put out there to consider, I had three winners, three seconds and two thirds. That's a 50% "in the money" percentage. The big downfall was Race 10, where Tribhuvan (at 19-1) won . I had him as my "if scratches occur" pick -- which mens, basically, I thought he was the fifth best horse in the race. No one scratched in the race, though, so I didn't use him in any exotics or vertical wagers. I figured he's try to set the pace, but didn't think he could maintain it the entire race. Channel Maker, who I expected to go with him, stumbled out of the gate and didn't. 

Such is the life of wagering. 

I looked at my last 30 days of wagering, and found these results:

-- 45 wagers

-- 42.5 win % on wagers

--  $1516 wagered 

--  $3077 payoff

-- $1561 profit

Onward, and upward.


Here's what I like at Churchill today: 


--   Race 2:   I'll play #2 WICKED HALO to beat #5 PRETTY BIRDIE.  Straight out $50 win bet

-    Let's also try an early Pick 5 --- it's a .50 cent wager. 

RACE 1 -- 1.3.4.7

RACE 2 -- 2,5

RACE 3 -- 1,2,3,6

RACE 4 -- 5,6,7,9

RACE 5 -- 1.3.5.6

Cost  $128


Good luck!


paulie


Saturday, June 11, 2022

BELMONT PICKS -- 6/11/22

 Let's take our Saturday handicapping and wagering to New York today -- to the site of the third jewel of the Triple Crown...Belmont Park and the Belmont Stakes. 

Nine stakes races on the card today up there, I took interest in the four leading to and including the Belmont Stakes. (races 8-11). All four are Grade I races, so, needless to say, these are very good runners at the track today. 


RACE 8 -- JAIPUR STAKES


5 -- ARREST ME RED

4 -- CASA CREED

8 -- SCUTTLEBUZZ

13 -- GREGORIAN CHANT

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 12 -- GEAR JOCKEY)


RACE 9 --   METROPOLITAN HANDICAP 


1 -- FLIGHTLINE

2 -- SPEAKER'S CORNER

4 -- HAPPY SAVER

3 -- ALOHA WEST

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- INFORMATIVE )


RACE 10 -- MANHATTAN STAKES


9 -- SANTIN

10 -- CHANNEL MAKER

2 -- GUFO

8 -- HIGHLAND CHIEF

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 7 -- TRIBHUVAN )


RACE 11 -- BELMONT STAKES


6 -- MO DONEGAL

1 -- WE THE PROPLE

4 -- RICH STRIKE

3 -- NEST

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- CREATIVE MINISTER )


OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 

RACE 3 -- (4) MATAREYA AND (5) EDHO ZULU THE TWO TO BEAT.

RACE 4 -- I'LL TAKE (3) SPEAK OF THE DEVIL OVER (2) REGAL GLORY

RACE 5 -- (5) FIRST CONSTITUTION ALWAYS RUNS WELL AT BELMONT

RACE 6 -- WHO BEATS (1) JACK CHRISTOPHER? 

RACE 7 -- TOUGH... BUT (1) LETRUSKA IS MY PICK. JOSE ORTIZ 7 FOR 8 ON HER


Good luck today!  

paulie


Saturday, June 4, 2022

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 6/4/22

 A nice day of racing lined up at Churchill today with (6) stakes races on the 11-race card. 

We'll look at all (6) stakes races, that start on Race 5 (The Regret) and then roll through Races 7-11.  My availability to jump in and update scratches today will be limited....so...

Like last week, I'm listing my top four picks and then an alternative pick, in case there is a scratch. Weather today is rain-free, though, and mid-80's temperatures. Central Avenue will be busy today -- with NCA Regional baseball going on at Jim Patterson Stadium. The Louisville game (vs. Michigan) is at 4 p.m. 


RACE 5 -- REGRET STAKES

3 -- MCKULICK

2 -- BESIDE HERSELF

1 -- WALKATHON

6 -- CANDY RAID

(4 -- KNEESANDHIPS -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)


RACE 7 --  SHAWNEE STAKES 

5 -- PAULINE'S PEARL

3 -- AVA'S GRACE

6 -- CRAZY BEAUTIFUL  {scratched)

4  -- ARMY WIFE

(2 -- SHE'S ALL WOLFE -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)


RACE 8 -- ARLINGTON STAKES

5 -- FIELD PASS

1 -- ADMISSIONS OFFICE

4 -- GET SMOKIN

6 -- GRAY'S FABLE

(2 -- FLORIFORM -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)


RACE 9 -- ARISTIDES STAKES

5 -- BOB'S EDGE

6 -- TOP GUNNER

8 -- LONG RANGE TODDY

2 -- MILES AHEAD

( 4 -- NECKER ISLAND -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR) 


RACE 10 -- BLAME STAKES

6 -- SCALDING

8 -- AMERICAN REVOLUTION

3 -- TITLE READY (scratched)

1 -- PROXY

5 -- DYNAMIC ONE -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)


RACE 11 -- AUDUBON STAKES

8 -- SUMMER ANTHEM

2  -- GRAND SONATA

7 -- SMOKIN T

11 -- MAJOR GENERAL

( 6 -- RED RUN -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR) 


Bet 'em any way you like and GOOD LUCK today !!


paulie 




Saturday, May 28, 2022

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 5/28/22

 A great weekend for racing at Churchill this Memorial Day Weekend. We'll look at the final four races out there today -- a nice stakes race, high level allowance and allowance optional claiming affairs and a maiden special weight close out the card. 

In case of scratches today, I've listed a "fifth horse" today in my picks, since I won't be around to come in and do any changes/updates. 

Best of luck today!


RACE 8 

4 -- WAR CAMPAIGN

10 -- PIONEERING SPIRIT

7 -- BRIGHT PROSPECTOR

3 -- RIDLEY'S MANOR

( 13 -- GUN RUNNER -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)


RACE 9 

3 -- GUN IT 

5 -- DENNIS' MOMENT

2 -- AWESOME GERRY

6 -- EBBEN

( 1 -- ATOKA -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)


RACE 10 

7 -- TEMPLE CITY TERROR

2 -- DISAPPEARING ACT

8 -- LUCK MONEY

1 -- STAND TALL

( 5 -- FEDERALIST PAPERS -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)


RACE 11

2 -- ARI OAKLEY

1 -- STATIC FIRE

8 -- ONTHEONESANDTWOS

6 -- BALI DREAMING

( 10 -- CODE FOR SUCCESS -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)


Play 'em anyway you like and have a winning day !

(A neat thing I heard the other day)..."It all begins with the effort. You have to put out the best effort you have...because your "rep", your past performances and your presence don't scare your opponent. They are there to take something away from you. A win. You must deny that. You must have the better effort. I hear losing coaches, players and others say that 'we weren't ready for them' or 'they out-played us in so-and-so quarter or stretch' and what it means is their effort was better than yours. They took it away from you. Me? I don't like to give away what I want. I am always going to give my best effort. I'm not out there for the popcorn, the fan recognition or because I had nothing else better to do. I want to win, so I must put out the better effort." 


paulie

paulie

 


 

Friday, May 20, 2022

PREAKNESS PICKS -- 5/21/22

Today we get the second leg of the triple crown -- The Preakness at Pimlico. 

With Rich Strike opting out, Epicenter deservedly gets the morning line favorite tag, but I do think he'll get a challenge from a few in here. The filly Secret Oath could challenge, Early Voting is getting a lot of backing and support and Creative Minister and Simplification wouldn't surprise too much, in my eyes, if they get the Black Eyed Susan garland. 

There is a nice Pick 4 that starts up there in Race 10 that ends with the Preakness and that's what I've handicapped for you today.

Good luck and I'll try to jump in if there are scratches or changes in my picks, 


RACE 10  JAMES W MURPHY STAKES -- 1 MILE (TURF)


10 -- JOE

5 -- READY TO PURRFORM

7 -- RIOT HOUSE  (scratched)

8 -- SHAKE EM LOOSE

2 -- LOCAL MOTIVE


RACE 11  SIR BARTON STAKES -- 1-1/16TH MILE (DIRT)


1 --ETHEREAL ROAD

5 -- B DAWG

8 -- UNIKEE

6 -- MR JEFFERSON


RACE 12 -- JIM MCKAY TURF SPRINT -- FIVE FURLONGS (TURF)


2 -- CAROTARI

7 -- GRATEFUL BRED

9 -- HOLLIS

3 -- SEVEN SECRETS


RACE 13 -- THE PREAKNESS -- 1-3/16TH MILES


8 -- EPICENTER

4 -- SECRET OATH

5 -- EARLY VOTING

6 -- CREATIVE MINISTER


As I always say, bet 'em however you like.  I fooled around with a few bets yesterday and favorites were getting routinely slaughtered in the final four on the card. 


paulie

Saturday, May 14, 2022

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 5/14/22

 Tonight is Downs After Dark at Churchill with a post time of 6 p.m.

We'll look at the late Pick 4, which starts in Race 8 


RACE 8 

6 -- QUICK TO BLAME

7 -- UNCLE BERLEY

2 -- MARVELOUSMOONDANCE

3 -- GRAPNEL


RACE 9 

5 -- TWILIGHT GLEAMING

2 -- MYSTIC EYES

3 -- MARGE'S KITCHEN

11 -- DEVINE CHARGER


RACE 10 

4 -- REMAIN ANONYMOUS

3 -- LIBERTY MD

5 -- GERRI B 

7 -- ALLWORTHY


RACE 11 

3 -- BEACHFRONT BID

2 -- SHE'S GONE

5 -- MY LILY MAE

8 -- PORONUI


Ill try to get back in with scratches tonight, 

GOOD LUCK abd olay 'em however you like


paulie

Friday, May 6, 2022

DERBY -- 5/7/22 -- SATURDAY CHURCHILL DOWNS


HAPPY DERBY DAY !!!


 Friday recap. On the 13 race card, I had 10 winners, 10 places and five shows. That's a 46% "in the money' number out of the total horses selected and 25 for 39 was a 64% filling of the payable spots. I'll take it !.

Betting wise, you know how I roll if you've followed the site. I play .50 Pick 4's with four horses in each leg. $128 per wager. I played four of them yesterday. Cost me $512. I got back a total of $1106. 

I'M NOT TRYING TO INFLUENCE YOU ON HOW TO BET, OF COURSE...but I get people ask me how I bet my picks, so...there it is. As I say, play 'em however you like. It's important to note that Friday's success doesn't mean I'll clean up on Saturday -- but, I had a profitable Keeneland meet and (so far) Churchill meet, and I'm "ahead for the year"  playing the Florida tracks and Oaklawn before they arrived in Kentucky...so why go changing? 


SATURDAY 


********UPDATED 8:15 AM*********

 

RACE 1

7 -- WARRIOR JONNY

10 - LOGICO

9 -- CONGRESSMAN

13 --  MONTOUK POINT 

NOTE: 14 -- GASOLINE DID GET IN THE RACE. I DID NOT FIGURE HE WOULD, BUT HE'LL FIGURE IN ANY WAGERING I MIGHT DO. NO PICK 4 HERE, THOUGH...FIRST ONE IS RACE 2. 


RACE 2 

4 -- SURFER DUDE

8 -- OSBOURNE

6 -- GREAT ESCAPE

2 -- STAYED IN FOR HALF


RACE 3

8 -- TALKING BOOK

7 -- FINAL BELLE

9 -- QUEEN BOURBON

3 -- LADY ROCKSTAR


RACE 4 

6 -- CREATIVE MINISTER

2 -- BYE BYE BOBBY

12 -- EMIRATES ROAD

1a -- VARATTI  (scratched) 

1 --  MCLAREN VALE


RACE 5

8 -- SPEAK OF THE DEVIL

5 -- WAKANAKA

6 -- LADY SPEIGHTSTOWN

7 -- IN ITALIAN


RACE 6 

2 -- SHARED SENSE

7 -- SOUTH BEND

4 -- DREAM SHAKE

10 -- MAJOR FED (scratched)

11 -- NECKER ISLAND


RACE 7

5 -- JACK CHRISTOPHER

11 -- MY PRANKSTER

1 -- MAJOR GENERAL

3 -- PAPPACAP


RACE 8 

2 -- JUST ONE TIME

4 -- KIMARI

6 -- BELL'S THE ONE

7 -- EDGEWAY


RACE 9

5 -- BAINIKHEV

7 -- SY DOG

2 -- MAIN EVENT

11 -- DOWAGIAC CHIEF

* I'll also add 9 -- STOLEN BASE -- into the mix. For all wagers. Got a tip on him*


RACE 10

1 -- ALPHA WEST

3 -- JACKIE'S WARRIOR

6 -- PREVALENCE

5 -- REINVESTMENT RISK


RACE 11

6 -- SHIRL'S SPEIGHT

8 -- ADHAMO

1 -- IVAR  (scratched)

4 -- TRIBHUVAN

5 -- MIRA MISSION


RACE 12  (DERBY)

3 -- EPICENTER

1 -- MO DONEGAL

10 -- ZANDON

5 -- SMILE HAPPY


RACE 13

9 -- MILITARIST

3 -- LIFE IS GOOD

11 -- LAUGHING BOY

7 -- STORM THE COURT


RACE 14

11 -- STROBE

12 -- BOURBON HEIST

6 -- MASTER OF ARMS

3 -- LUDWIG


I'll update Saturday morning with any scratches and/or changes. 

Play 'em however you like and Good Luck ! 


paulie




 






Thursday, May 5, 2022

OAKS -- 5/6/22 -- FRIDAY CHURCHILL DOWNS

 

( Thursday Recap -- Out of the 11 races I handicapped Thursday, I had six winners, seven places and seven shown.. That was a 20-44 (45%) "in the money" and I filled 20 out the 33 possible payout slots for 61% )


FRIDAY PICKS


RACE 1

3 -- IDIOMATIC

8 -- FANNY AND FREDDY

4 -- SEQUIST

2  -- IMOGENE MALVINA


RACE 2

11 -- INVENTING

8 -- BLAME THE CHAMPAGNE

10 -- MISREAD

3 -- SHE'S KEEN


RACE 3 

1 -- Q.F. SEVENTY FIVE

3 -- RED HORNET

4 -- MYOPIC

7 -- GRAEL


RACE 4 

7 -- JUJU'S MAP

5 -- SEMBLE JUSTE

8 -- ILLIOGAMI

3 -- POWDER RIVER


RACE 5 

8 -- BLEECKER STREET

7 -- CURLY RUTH

1 -- FLUFFY SOCKS

2 -- STAND TALL


RACE 6 

8 -- PAULINE'S PEARL

2 -- SHEDARESTHEDEVIL

4 -- BATTLE BLING

1 -- JILTED BRIDE


RACE 7 

1 -- MAX SAVER

3 -- OLYMPIAD

7 -- HAPPY SAVER

6 -- FULSOME


RACE 8 

5 -- DOLCE ZEL

10 -- DREAM LITH

8 -- SPICER

9 -- NEW YEAR'S EVE


RACE 9 

8 -- MATAREYA

3 -- MARISSA'S LADY

2 -- PRETTY BIRDIE

4 -- AIN'T EASY


RACE 10

11 -- JUST MIGHT

7 -- DIAMOND OOPS

10 -- ARREST ME RED

8 -- GEAR JOCKEY


RACE 11 (OAKS)

7 -- ECHO ZULU

10 -- KATHLEEN O

4 -- NEXT

1 -- SECRET OATH


RACE 12

9 -- WISH YOU WELL

4 -- SOCIETY

1 -- ONTHEONESANDTWOS

2 -- REAGAN'S DECISION


RACE 13

6 -- LITTLE BLAZE

7 -- FABULOUS FANNY

9 -- RATHER BE LUCKY

8 -- COLORFUL MISCHIEF


* It's supposed to be a wet Oaks Day, so I kept that in mind when handicapping.

* I'll try to keep up with scratches as best I can...and update the picks

* Play 'em anyway you like!


paulie


 

Thurby -- 5/5/22 -- Thursday Picks at Churchill

 

Welcome to Thurby !  

The Thursday races at Churchill Downs are commonly referred to "Louisville's Day at the Track" and an 11 race card is being offered today. 

If you go, you might want to consider a poncho. Rain is expected in the afternoon. 

I've handicapped the race and have all 11 races below. I'll jump back in later this morning with any scratches or chances, so be sure to check back


****************************************UPDATED 12:20 P.M.************************************* 


RACE 1

5 -- THE BOSS FACTOR

7 --  HIGH SPIRITS

8 -- YOUVESAIDITALL

3 -- HIGHER AUTHORITY


RACE 2 

1 -- EMPIRE OF MY OWN

6  -- DIVINE GRACE

4 -- DEVIOUS DAME

7 -- YOU CHOSE WISELY


RACE 3 

5 -- COVE BLUE

1 --RYE HUMOR    scratched

6 -- MUY CARO

9 -- DAVID'S GEM

2 -- ABUELO NUNO


RACE 4

6 -- BABY YODA

7 -- DIVINE LEADER

5 -- THE QUEENS JULES

3 -- WINDY CITY'RED


RACE 5 

4 -- ADVANCED PLACEMENT (scratched)

9 -- ENOUGH ALREADY

12 -- STICKY ISSUE

5 -- TWIRLING BLUES

8 -- FIELD MARSHALL



RACE 6 

4 -- BRONZE HALO

1 -- BIG BLUE LINE

7 -- DUAL THREAT

6 -- GUT FEELING  (scratched)

3 -- GROUP EIGHTEEN

RACE 7 

 4 -- DOWNTOWN ABBY

7 -- BELLE RUBELLE

2 -- SOCIAL DILEMNA

8 -- FLASHY CHARGE


RACE 8 

2 -- BEATBOX  (scratched)

5 -- MR DUMAS

9 -- GRAY'S FABLE

6 -- SET PIECE (scratched)

4 -- KENTUCKY GHOST    (scratched)

11 -- MAX K.O.

1 -- MONARCHS GLEN


RACE 9

1 -- TOM'S REGRET

11 -- HURRICANE DEBBIE

9 -- SIMPLY SUPER

3 -- KING ADCOCK


RACE 10

2 -- BROOKE MARIE

6 -- CATCH A BID

5 -- CHANGE OF CONTROL

7 -- GOIN GOOD


RACE 11 


5 -- SOMEBODY LOVES ME

10 -- TACHLIS

6 -- SWEET TRUFFLES

2 -- SHE'S GREEKANDSLEEK


Best of luck to you today !


paulie

Tuesday, May 3, 2022

Early Oaks and Derby Thoughts --Tuesday 5/3

 Now that the post positions have been assigned, let's take a look at the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby/

In the Oaks, I've liked three horses for awhile now, and that didn't change with the post assignment:


OAKS


10 -- Kathleen O  -- The Gulfstream Oaks win was impressive

7 -- Echo Zulu -- She showed she does no like to be passed in the Fair Grounds Oaks

4 -- Nest -- Her four-wide move on the turn and dominating stretch run in Ashland?  WOW !!

A longshot to consider:

1 -- Sacred Oath --Tried the boys, held her own and got third in Ark, Derby

:

In the Derby, I've wrestled with my top three for awhile now Here's what I got;


3 -- Epicenter -- I think his win in the Louisiana Derby was impressive. Rated, waited, pounced and pulled away.

1 -- Mo Donegal -- The win in the Wood was a closing nail biter but he flew that last furlong!

10 -- Zandon -- What a run in the Blue Grass ! From last to first and negotiated the traffic.  

A longshot to consider:

5 -- Smile Happy. -- 2nd in the Blue Grass and led in the stretch. That bump he got from Emmanual in the stretch probably cost him the win, in my opinion. 


paulie


Saturday, April 30, 2022

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 4/30

 

Opening night at Churchill Downs tonight and the start of Derby Week in Louisville. 

A nice opening card at Churchill, I'll concentrate on the late Pick 4 (Races 7-10) but will also offer a few suggestions in a couple of the earlier races. POST TIME IS 6 P.M. TONIGHT

Good luck tonight!

(I'll return with any changes/scratches later in the afternoon) 


UPDATED 6:50 p.m.


RACE 7 

5 -- BANDMATE

3 -- MY FAVORITE UNCLE

4 -- STRONG LIGHT

10 -- TRICOLOUR


RACE 8 

10 -- BAY STORM

6 -- STERLING MISS

4 -- CLARA PEETERS scratched

2 -- MAMBA WAMBA

9 -- spicy marg


RACE 9 

3 -- BAYERNESS

5 -- CARIBBEAN CAPER  scratched

4 -- CLUB CAR

2 -- CHEETARA


RACE 10 

6 -- OUT WORK'N

5 -- ISTHMIAN  scratched

4 -- KNIGHTLY MISCHIEF

7 -- MY  HOT TODDY

1 -- VASILEVSKIY


-- #5 SPEED BOAT LOOKS THE BEST OF THE FIELD IN RACE 1.

-- #2 MY MAN FLINSTONE DROPS DOWN TO HIS LOWEST CLAIMING PRICE IN SOME TIME IN RACE 2. FIRE SALE? KENNY MCPEEK CLAIMED HIM BACK. BULLET WORK LAST OUT. 

-- #1 FRILLS ON A THREE RACE WIN STREAK. MAYBE A SINGLE IN RACE 3? 

-- #6 MISS YEARWOOD JUST KEEPS GETTING BETTER AND BETTER IN RACE 6. LEPAROUX STAYS ON BOARD FOR IAN WILKES. 


paulie


-- 

Saturday, April 23, 2022

KEENELAND PICKS -- 4/23/22

 

A nice Saturday Card at Keeneland today, with the ELKHORN Stakes being the feature (race nine) 

HERE'S WHAT I GOT IN RACES 7-10


(Updated at 12:25 p.m.)


RACE 7

5 -- GAM'S MISSION

10 -- NICENO

8 -- MARKET REPORT

3 -- SWEET ENOUGH


RACE 8 

5 -- WARRANT

3 -- PROXY

3 -- DYNAMIC ONE

7 -- SCALDING


RACE 9

5 -- CHANNEL MARKER

1 -- BEMMA'S BOY

3 -- TWO EMMY'S

4 -- PHANTOM CURRENCY (scratched)

9 -- ANOTHER MYSTERY


RACE 10 

3 -- UNIKEE

1 -- GREAT ESCAPE  (scratched)

4 -- TOUGH TO TAME  (scratched)

9 -- B SUDD

2 -- CONDEMN

1A -- MOMENTUS


(I'll be back later today if any scratches occur, but the weather looks perfect for racing in Lexington)


paulie


Saturday, April 16, 2022

KEENELAND PICKS -- 4/16/22

 

Great card at Keeneland today, with three stakes races -- including the Jenny Wiley -- in the 11 races. Let's hope the rain stays away. I'm look at the Late Pick 4 (races 8-11)


RACE 8 


12 -- ELLE Z

3 -- CAMPANELLE

5 -- CHANGE OF CONTROL

11 -- GOIN' GOOD


RACE 9 


2 -- IN OUR TIME

9 -- TAWNY PORT

7 -- MAJOR GENERAL 

11 -- CALL ME MIDNIGHT


RACE 10 


3 -- SHANTISARA

4 -- REGAL GLORY

5 -- NAVRATILOVA

1 -- SCARABEA


RACE 11 


4 -- HIGHLY MOTIVATED

2 -- ESCAPE ROUTE

8 -- DUCALE

3 -- SOUP AND SANDWICH


Good luck today !  If scratches occur, I'll be back with the changes/updates. 


paulie

Saturday, April 9, 2022

KEENELAND PICKS -- 4/9/22

 Yes, they are back at Keeneland for the spring meet an a great Saturday Card awaits, with Kentucky Derby prep The Blue Grass Stakes as the feature

I'll look at races 6-9 today. A Pick 4 available and four challenging stakes races in the sequence.


RACE 6 -- THE APPALACHIAN 

3 -- SPENARELLA

4 -- DOLCE ZEL 

7 -- OURAIKA

2 -- AN AGENT MISTAKE


RACE 7 -- THE MADISON

3 -- LADY ROCKET

5 -- BELL'S THE ONE

6 -- KIMARI

4 -- JUST ONE TIME


RACE 8 -- THE SHAKERTOWN


10 -- GOLDEN PAL

5 -- BARRAZA

11 -- JUST MIGHT

6 -- THE LIR JET


RACE 9 -- BLUE GRASS


10 -- SMILE HAPPY

4 -- ZANDON

6 -- EMMANUEL

9 -- RATTLE N ROLL


I'll update later this afternoon with any scratches.


Irad Ortiz owned the track yesterday on opening day with three straight wins to close out the day and he's well positioned with mounts to have another successful day Saturday.  It'll be a chilly Saturday with high of 48 (good day for Burgoo !) but low chance of rain for the card. 


Good luck and play 'em however you like...


paulie

Saturday, April 2, 2022

ARKANSAS, JEFF RUBY AND FLORIDA DERBY PICKS 4/2/22

 A big day on the Derby trail today, with prep races Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn and Floridaa Derby at Gulfstream


I like SECRET OATH at Oaklawn in the Arkansas Derby. The filly is undefeated at the track and shold best the boys in at 1-1/8th distance. Give me CYBERKNIFE for second and DOPPELGANGER to show. 


In Florida, SIMPLIFICATION is the top pick, followed by WHITE ABARRIO for second and CLASSIC CAUSEWAY to show. 


Let's not forget the Jeff Ruby Stakes up at Turfway today either, where TIZ THE BOMB tries the polytrack against a full field of contenders, including a couple of others I like, too in CONSTITUTIONLAWYER and STOLEN BASE 


I'll try the Late Pick 4 at Gulfstream today for wagering. Four stakes races to close out the card and a huge "Hall of Fame" jockey colony riding...


*******************UPDATED At 1:53 PM*********************


RACE 11 


1 -- MISCHEVIOUS KISS

9 -- MY PHILLY TWIRL

6 -- SHAD NATION

8 -- AMBITIEUSE


RACE 12 

7 -- KATHLEEN O 

5 -- GODDESS OF FIRE

2 -- CATICHE  (Scratched)

4 -- RUNNING LEGACY

3 -- AMANIE'S IMAGE


RACE 13 


9 -- ENGLISH BEA

7 -- PHANTOM CURRENCY

3 -- WOLFIE'S DYNAHOST

2 -- SCARLETT SKY


RACE 14 


3 -- SIMPLIFICATION

7 -- WHITE ABARRIO

6 -- CHARGE IT

9 -- O CAPTAIN


Good luck today, and I'll pop back in with any scratches/changes today as needed -- rain is expected at Gulfstream today. 


paulie 



Saturday, March 12, 2022

TAMPA BAY PICKS -- 3-12-22

 

Welcome back to another season of PAULIE'S PICKS !


There's big racing going on today inTampa that could affect the Derby Trail with the Tampa Bay Derby, so we'll look at that race and a few other stakes races down there today.  It hardly seems like spring here in Louisville with snow on the ground and temperature in the 20's  so we'll just stay indoors and watching racing in a warm climate ! 


RACE 8 -- CHALLENGER STAKES 

3 -- GREATEST HONOR

4 -- DYNAMIC ONE

7 -- TUNE IN

10 -- SHIRL'S SPEIGHT   (scratched)

9 -- CODY'S WISH


RACE 9 -- FLORIDA OAKS

1  -- MRS BARBARA

3 -- DOLCE ZEL

6 -- SPICER

9 -- AMBITIEUSE


RACE 10 -- COLUMBIA STAKES 

2 -- WAKE SURF

3 -- KITTEN MISCHIEF

5 -- HEAVEN STREET

6 -- FORT WASHINGTON


RACE 11 TAMPA BAY DERBY

4 -- CLASSIC CAUSEWAY

8 -- MAJOR GENERAL

7 -- STRIKE HARD    (scratched)

9 -- SHIPSATIONAL

5 -- GIANT GAME


Play 'em however you like. I'll try a Pick 4 with all four of my picks in each of the four races. The .50 cent wager will cost $128. CWe'll start it in Race 8 and have for stakes races in it.

I'll watch for scratches, since it's supposed to be a rainy day at Tampa, and will try to get in here to update if needed. 


Welcome back !'

paulie 



Saturday, January 29, 2022

GULFSTREAM PICKS -- 1/28/21

 

Hi there, ho there -- hello there !

Yep, been away awhile and don't usually resurface until the spring, but with the huge Pegasus Day card at Gulfstream today and our city paralyzed by the snow squall yesterday, it's a good day to stay inside and watch horseracing, right?  

I'm going to try the late Pick 4 at Gulfstream. Here we go:

RACE 9:

4 --Regal Glory

1 -- Sweet Melania

8 -- Summer in Sartoga

5 -- Gift List

RACE 10: 

7 -- Dennis Moment

8 -- Speakers Corner

6 --Liam

1 -- Fearless

5 -- Shivaree

RACE 11: 

6 -- Colonel Liam

8 -- Sacred Life

12  -- Never Surprised

10 -- Channel Cat

RACE 12: 

1  -- Knicks Go

4 -- Life Is Good

(Note: I'm going just two deep in Race 12. If you want to go deeper, maybe try 2 -- Chess Chief and/or 3 -- Stilleto. I see it as a two-horse race, though.


TOTAL WAGER COST ON THE .50 PICK FOUR:  $80

If there are scratches, I'll jump in and make the necessary changes. 


paulie