OAKS DAY CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTIONS -- 4/30/21

 Happy OAKS Day to you! 

I've looked at the six stakes races today (Races 6-11) and come up with my picks. It's a beautiful day of racing at Churchill -- track fast and turf firm.  Let's get right in to the selections, that's why you're here, right? 

RACE 6 -- ALYSHEBA -- GII -- $400K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

6 -- MAXFIELD

1 -- VISITANT

5 -- ROADSTER

2 -- SONNEMAN

RACE 7 -- EDGEWOOD -- GII -- $300K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF)

6 -- AUNT PEARL 

7 -- ZAAJEL

2 -- GIFT LIST

1 -- POSTNUP

RACE 8 -- LATROIENNE -- GI -- $500k -- 1-1/16TH MILE 

2 -- SHEDARESTHEDEVIL

3 -- DUNBAR ROAD

7 -- FINITE

5 --PARIS LIGHTS

RACE 9 -- EIGHT BELLES -- GII -- $300K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

10 -- DAYATTHEOFFICE

12 -- CARAMEL SWIFT

8 -- KALYPSO

4 -- EUPHONIC

RACE 10 -- TURF SPRINT -- GII -- $750K -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) 

9 -- DIAMOND OOPS

8 -- FAST BOAT

3 -- FIYA

5 -- JUST MIGHT

RACE 11 -- KENTUCKY OAKS -- GI -- $1.25K -- 1-1/8TH MILES

10 -- MALATHAAT

12 -- SEARCH RESULTS

3 -- CLAIRIERE

6 -- TRAVEL COLUMN 

1 -- PAULINE'S PEARL 

The Play: 

There is a Pick Four (Races 8-11) that I'll try and a Pick 3  (RACES 6-8)  that I'll concentrate on. 

In the Pick 3 , I'll play a .50 cent version:

1,2,5,6/1.,2.6.7/2,3,5,7

Cost:  $32

In the Pick 4, I'll go with:

2,3,5,7/4,8,10,12 / 3.5.8.9/1,3,6,10,12

Cost: $160

Good luck today ! 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS RESULTS 4/29/21

Thurby, or Thursday at Churchill,  turned out to be a day where the favorites held court. I looked at the Late Pick 4 (Races 8-11), nothing over 5/2 saw the winner's circle. 

I gave you 16 horses to look at in the four races and had three winners, four seconds and three third.  That's a 83% "in the money" percentage.  I filled 10 of the 12 "payable slots" for that same 83% success rate. 

RACE 8 --  SET PIECE (5/2) got to the wire first. I had SNAPPER SINCLAIR (2nd) and GRAY"S FABLE (3rd) in my picks. The two I really like SAYYAAT and CAPTIVATING MOON probably didn't care for the wet turf conditions

RACE 9 -- SKINNY DIP was the winner and I had hin at 1-1 odds. BREAK CURFEW chased him home for second and PRIMACY finished third. I picked all three. 

RACE 10 -- INTO MYSTIC (5/2) took the Unbridled Sidney Stakes and CHANGE OF CONTROL ran second. I had both picks in my selections. 

RACE 11 -- LEMON AND DIEM (2-1) looked the best and got to the winners circle. NO OBLIGATION finished second and BOLD ADVENTURE crossed third. I had all three of those in my picks. 

The Late PICK 4 returned $69.65 on the .50 cent wager. 

****************I'll be back later this morning with ny OAKS DAY selections**************

paulie  

CHURCHILL DOWNS PICKS -- 4/29/21

 

Yes, it's going to be a wet and sloppy "Thurby" out at Churchill Downs this Thursday. I don't know at this time what will remain on the turf in the Late Pick 4 sequence (Races 9 and 10 are scheduled for the grass) and who will scratch, but I will endeavor to jump back in here with updates, so be sure to check back. 

A challenging Late Pick 4 sequence with two stakes races (The Opening Verse and Unbridled Sidney) a good allowance affair and a Maiden race to close out the day's activities. 

Happy Thurby to you !  This used to be a "can't miss" day for me out at the track. With the weather and my bum knee, though, I'll be watching on-line and trying not to fall asleep in my recliner.

Someday, I may write a book about my "Thursdays leading into Fridays" experiences at Churchill with Tommy Boy, Vince and the boys from St. Louis, Brother Ron, walking the facilities with John Asher looking for my cell-phone, "The Post" on Longfield Ave, singing with the band at 1 a.m., drunk tellers, interesting rides home as the sun was coming up and the celebrities/people I've run into.

Memorable, ridiculous, blurry, downright scandalous and unbelievable...all in a 18-hour period. There might have been beverages involved...

Here we go...

******************PICKS REVIEWED AND UPDATED AT 2:30 P.M.******************

CHURCHILL DOWNS 

RACE 8 -- OPENING VERSE STAKES -- $130K -- ONE MILE -- (TURF) 

8 -- CAPTIVATING MOON

7 -- SNAPPER SINCLAIR

2 -- SAYYAAT

1 -- GRAY'S FABLE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  3 -- SUGOI, 4 -- LOGICAL MOON) 

RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE -- $118K -- SIX FURLONGS

1 -- PRIMACY

7 -- SKINNY DIP 

3 -- BOURBINA

2 -- BREAK CURFEW

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  5 -- LISTEN UP, 4 -- SHE'S STUCK UP) 

RACE 10 -- UNBRIDLED SIDNEY STAKES -- $150K -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) 

4 -- OLEKSANDRA

2 -- INTO MYSTIC

2 -- CHANGE OF CONTROL

9 -- ELLE Z 

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  8 -- SHESONTHEWARPATH,  10 -- YES IT'S GINGER)

RACE 11 -- MAIDEN -- 30K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

7 -- LEMON AND DIEM

8 -- BOLD ADVENTURE

3 -- EAGLE CAP

4 -- NO OBLIGATION 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 2-- SOUTHERN WILL,  1 -- STUD PUPPY

                                            ****************************

THE PLAY: 

I'll go with my top four picks in Races 8-10, as they stand now, but will keep an eye out for scratches and if anything gets pulled off the turf, so they might change.  BE SURE TO CHECK BACK !!  In Race 11, I MIGHT even to go six deep, this is a wide open maiden race and I'll throw in my "if scratches occur" horses as well as my top four picks: 

1,2,7,8 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,4,9 / 1,2 3,4,7.8

Cost:  $192

Good Luck Today ! 

  

I also looked at Race 6 and will bet an trifecta box on 4--Keep Your Distance, 7-- Centerfold Angel and 3 -- Radiantrhythm

***************** PICKS REVIEWED AND UPDATED 2:30 P.M.****************

                                             *****************************

GOOD LUCK TODAY AND BE SURE TO CHECK BACK FOR SCRATCHES AND CHANGES ! 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS RESULTS -- 4/28/21

 WE WERE WARNED ABOUT THE RAIN WEDNESDAY AND IT EVENTUALLY SHOWED UP BEFORE THE 7TH RACE AT CHURCHILL. A DELUGE THAT CAUSED A DELAY IN RACING, A MOVE FROM TURF TO DIRT FOR THE SEVENTH RACE AND A SCRATCH OF ALL MY PICKS IN RACE SEVEN. 

On the day, I had 12 break from the gate, had three winners, two seconds and three thirds. That's a 66% "in the money" percentage and I filled eight of the nine "payable" spots for a not, too shabby 89% success rate. 

Yeah, Mother Nature wasn't having it for a Paulie Picks Late Pick 4. All six  horses I originally laid out for you didn't go in the seventh race, the field was dropped to five runners... so I skipped the Pick 4 and concentrated on a Late Pick 3 (Races 8-10). For what's it worth, they gave you the post-time favorite in Race 7 if you had scratches, that one ran second to MEET THE BEAUTY, who seemed to love the sloppy conditions and skipped home at 7/2 odds. 

RACE 8  -- I got the win with HE'S IN CHARGE, who went off at 2-1. THE BIG KAHUNA , another of my picks, got third. 

RACE 9 -- I loved AVERLY JANE in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes and she proved to be the best with a convincing stretch move that got her home about 4 lengths in front. So did everyone else, she went off at 1-2 odds. I also had VODKA AND WATER (as a pick, not a race-watching beverage) who ran second and BOHEMIAN FROST WHO GOT THIRD. Scratched was KAUFYMAKER, who I really liked, keep an eye out for that one when that filly runs next. 

RACE 10 -- BEAR ALLEY (6/5) proved to be the best, another of my picks, and COOL RAGS managed third. ORNERY got scratched.  

The Late Pick 3 paid a pitiful $6.70 on the .50 cent wager, so I lost $26 there. If you played the Late Pick 4, it returned $90.95 with the numbers 5,3/3,4/3,5  getting you $90.95 on the .50 cent wager. 

In the second race I did point toward Big Nick, but he ran second by about five lengths. Still, accrose the board made you pocket change -- a $2 Win, Place Show bet ($6) brought back $6.20, 

******I'll be back later this morning with Thursday (or Thurby's) Picks for Churchill******

. Expect a sloppy track, y'all. 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS PICKS -- 4/28/21

 Welcome to Wednesday of Derby Week !  I'll be keeping an eye-on-the-skies later today, as rain is expected in the Louisville area. If scratches occur, I'll do my best to update the site. 

I'm tackling the Late Pick 4 at Churchill (Race 7-10). A very challenging card, with two maiden races, an allowance that would probably be the feature race at a Lot of other tracks and the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes...with the very impressive AVERLY JANE entered. 

Let's hope the rains hold off until the completion of the card! 

CHURCHILL DOWNS

RACE 7 -- MAIDEN $115k -- 1-1/8TH MILES -- (TURF) 

9 --PERHAPS TONIGHT

8 -- MINT EDITION

4 -- LAYNLOMAKNDOUGH

10 -- TRANSIENT

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 11 -- MUISANNE, 12 -- SCARABOA)

RACE 8 -- ALLOWANCE -- $118K -- SIX FURLONGS

2 -- MY MAN FLINSTONE

7 -- QUIXOTIC

3 -- HE'S IN CHARGE

5 -- THE BIG KAHUNA

(IF CRATCHES OCCUR -- 8 -- READY TO ANSWER) 

RACE 9 -- KENTUCKY JUVENILE STAKES -- $15OK -- SIX FURLONGS

4 -- AVERLY TIME

3 -- KAUFYMAKER (scratched) 

7 -- BOHEMIAN FROST

8 -- AMERICAN BOUND

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 6 -- VODKA AND WATER)

RACE 10 -- MAIDEN $56K -- 1-1/16TH MILES 

2 -- COOL RAGS

3 -- BEAR ALLEY 

5 -- ORNERY (scratched)

7 -- SOMETHING ALWAYS 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 4 -- BOLD MANOR)

THE PLAY

I'll try the .50 cent Late Pick 4 and build in a little security in Races 7 and 10 -- maiden affairs. 

Depending on what the weather brings and the track conditions, I'll try to go for or five deep in Races 7 and 10, four deep in Race 8 and three to four deep in Race 9. Once again, that'll depend on who stays in, who scratches and who get in off the also eligible list. Check back for changes  before the sequence starts. 

A possible play is:

Race 7 -- 4,8,9,10,

Race 8 -- 2,3,5,7

Race 9 -- 4,6,7,8

Race 10 -- 2,3,4,7

Cost:  $128

In the 2nd race, #5 BIG NICK comes in from the Fairgrounds and drops back to a shorter distance (where he belongs) and gets Adam Beschizza back on board, who guided him to his lone win. He lost all chances when he stumbled out a the gate last time-- if he gets a clean break today, he might be "all that". I'll take a chance on him...he had a great 4F work here recently...

Good luck today! 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS RESULTS 4/24/21

Opening night at Churchill Downs turned out to be a wet one, and the track was sloppy and turf good for the evening's races. I suspected they might pull a race or two off the turf and that happened in the seventh race.

I had to jump back in and update yesterday's picks because of multiple scratches in the final four races but that didn't keep me from hitting the late Pick 4 !  I gave you 17 horses to consider over those four races and had four winners, three seconds and a show. That's a 47% "in the money" percentage and I filled eight of the 12 "payable" spots for a 66% success rate there. 

RACE 7 brought Fortunty (9/2) home first in a tight battle with another of my picks -- Gershwin. I did think that the "main track only" runners stood a good chance but they finished out of the money. Tyler Gaffalione was the winning jockey on the horse trained by Michael Maker. 

RACE 8 belonged to Honor Hop (4-1), who outlasted another of my picks in Queen Bourbon in the long Churchill stretch. I also gave you D'Oro Forever, who came in third. Julian Leparoux had the ride for Brian Lynch. The distance (1-14th miles) is the distance of the Kentucky Derby, but was covered in the plodding time of 2:06:48. 

RACE 9 was the feature race last night -- The William Walker Stakes. This one remained on the turf at 5-1/2 furlongs and Field Day barely caught pace-setting Bodenheimer at the wire for the win. I had both in my picks.  It was Tyler Gaffalione again in the winner's circle, this time for trainer Brad Cox.  It was a good night for Tyler, he had three wins on the card last night.

RACE 10 ended the evening's festivities and it was Bayerness (3-1) who came charging out of the pack in the stretch to get the win. The win went to Luis Saez.and Bayerness was trained by Cherie DeVaux. Luis had two wind last night, as did Gerardo Corrales, a journeyman rider who made his name at Thistledown Park, outside of Cleveland, before hitting the Kentucky circuit a few years ago.  

So, the Pick 4 paid $209.00 on the .50 cent wager.  Not as much as I expected, but more than I put into it, financially, so that was a good thing. As I've said here a billion times, I can pick winners, but I can't pick what I'd like to get paid. 

 I did make a tidy sum on a couple of side bets last night as well. I loved Bodenheimer in Race 9 and Bayerness in Race 10.  Bodenheimer ran second but I bet him across the board, so he turned a $20 WPS wager ($60 total) into $108 for me. I did the same thing with Bayerness --  $20 to win, place and show and that $60 investment returned $174. My other venture was going to be a $20 win, place, show on Attorney Tim in Race 7, but, he didn't keep his court date and was a scratch for Luis Saez and Hreg Foley.

We'll "give it a go" (in the words of Louisville Field Hockey head coach Justine Sowry ...and hip-hop, rap artist Timbaland) on Wednesday as Derby Week continues at Churchill. You are cordially invited to return to Paulie Picks and view my choices for "Louisville's Day at the Track" on Weds. 

paulie 

CHURCHILL DOWNS PICKS -- 4/24/21

 OPENING NIGHT AT CHURCHILL DOWNS

Yes, indeed, they've returned to the Twin Spires at Churchill Downs and the track kicks off Derby Week with Saturday Night racing tonight. A 6 p.m. post, definite chance of rain, and it's "Dress To Impress" night...so, if you go, you might want to consider wearing something else beside your Gonzaga sweat shirt and faded blue jeans. 

I've looked at the final four races (the Late Pick 4) and tried to do the best I can in sorting out the runners and guessing the conditions. If they pull races from the Turf, (Races 7 & 9) my picks might not do so well, keep that in mind and check the status of the final four races before you plunge. Also, a sloppy main track is entirely possible, so keep that in mind as well.  I handicapped for it. 

It's an interesting card, and a rarity in Race 8, where maiden fillies will go the Derby distance (1-1/4th miles) for the first time (and maybe only time) in their lives. This looks to be a total "close your eyes and pick a couple" kind of race, honestly.

Opening days/nights at tracks always have their share of intrigue, mystery and the occasional upset, so...don't go hog wild tonight. Better races are on the way next week! 

NOTE:  PICKS UPDATED 4:51 EDT DUE TO SCRATCHES 

CHURCHILL DOWNS

RACE 7 -- ALLOWANCE -- $118K -- ONE MILE (TURF) 

11  -- WARSAVVY

13 -- MORTAGALLY

8 -- HELLORHIGHWATER

4 -- FORTUITY

RACE 8 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- $115K -- 1-1/4TH MILE

5 -- QUEEN BOURBON

3 -- HONOR HOP

6 -- ZURI

8 -- D'ORO FOREVER 

RACE 9 -- WILLIAM WALKER STAKES -- $150K -- 5-1/2  FURLONGS (TURF) 

7 -- BODENHEIMER

4 -- KASIM 

6 -- ROCKSTAR RO

 3 -- FIELD DAY 

RACE 10 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- $62K -- SIX FURLONGS

5 -- SHE CAN SING

7 -- AUNT NADINE

6 -- LADY ANNA

8 -- BAYERNESS

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR /ALSO CONSIDER-- 3 -- TIPSY GAL ) 

The Play

It's opening night and it's a good chance to "get a read" on the track, as we get into better racing later next week.  I'm suggesting trying a Pick 4 with my top four picks in the first three races (7-9) and then "going deep" with my "if scratches occur" selection in Race 10.  Of course, be ready to substitute if track surfaces and conditions dictate it and I'll try to jump back in here with changes as I learn them....substituting as necessary if there are scratches and if Race 8 comes off the turf.

I'll try: 

.50 cent Pick 4:  

4,8, 11,13/ 3,5,6,8/ 3,4.6.7./3,5,6,7,8

COST:  $160

IMPORTANT PROGRAMMING NOTE !!!!

Since it is DERBY WEEK, I'll be extending my picks this week.  Be sure to check back on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday for my picks on those days. 

Good luck tonight! 

paulie

Keeneland Results 4/17/21

 A good day overall with the Keeneland Picks but fell just short of hitting the late Pick 4. 

Overall, I gave out 17 picks (counting the sixth race) and had three wins, three places and two shows. that's a 47% in the money percentage. Out of the 13 possible payout slots, I filled eight of them for a 61.5% success rate.

I spoke at length about  PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE in Race 6. Luis Saez ended up riding and he lost in a photo by a nose to Derby Date. I didn't play a pick 5, instead I went $30-$30-$30 across the board on the Paul McGee runner. He paid $4 to place and $2.80 to show...so I still made a small profit of $12. 

The Late Pick 4 crashed early, with BROOKE MARIE winning Race 7. A horse I had circled to consider but did not list as one of my top four. She won at 7/2 odds. I did have second with Chili Petin and third with Violenza, 

So, I turned to a late Pick 3, for races 8-10. And, South Bend came through with the win for me at 7/2 odds. Mighty Heart ran third in a very competitive optional claiming race. 

In the Elkhoen Stakes (Race 9) I was disappointed to see Cross Border scratch, he was my top pick, but still won with Say The Word at 7/2 odds. 

In Race 10, I hit with High Five Cotton at 7/2 odds and nearly got Can't Say No there, who was 26-1 and lost the photo. 

The Late Pick Three returned $50.65 on the .50 cent wager, and I spent $32 to hit it. A nice bonus in race 10, where my $1 exacta box returned $84.30 on the $12 dollar bet.  

The late Pick 4 was worth $200.75 with 2/3/2/8 as the winning numbers. 

We'll "give it a go" again next week (to quote Louisville Field Hockey coach Justine Sowry). We'll have the opening night at Churchill Downs to consider and the start of Derby Week (the Derby is May 1st) and try to get a look at how the horses are running at "the world's most legendary race track." I doubt I get to Churchill at all during Derby Week, unlike past years, a sprained MCL in my right knee has me "on the shelf" with limited walking...that and the arthritis in that knee make it a chore just to walk and driving is definitely out.  

                                                 ********************************

LOVING LUIS

Keep an eye on jockey Luis Saez. He  recently switched jockey agents and is now represented by former trainer Kieran McLaughlin. It's a good move!  Saez won four races on the Saturday card, had three seconds and a show. If you had put $2 across the board on Saez every time he rode yesterday, you would have spent $54 and gotten back $118.20. I'll let you figure out the winnings with a $30-$30-$30 across the board...

McLaughlin was a successful trainer for many years and now that he's switched to being an agent, that knowledge and the contacts he's made nationwide are most beneficial on getting Saez on "alive" and winning horses. 

And it's been a great situation for Saez!  Consider he's rode 76 mounts at Keeneland this spring: 

He's had 26 wins, 13 places, 16 shows.

Yesterday, in the final five Keeneland races, Saez had three wins and two seconds.

Saez is, by far, the leading rider at Keeneland, with a 34% win percentage and a 72% "in the money" percentage. Can this continue at Churchill? I'll be watching, and I won't bet against him. . As one horse player I know mentioned to me:  "You'd be nuts not to include Saez in any multiple horse wagers (Pick 3, Pick 4, etc) that you make."  

Wise advice.

paulie . 

paulie

Keeneland Picks -- 4/17/21

 So far, this week, I've had a great two days at Keeneland -- taking down a couple of Pick 4's and Pick 3's over THURSDAY and FRIDAY at the historic Lexington track. 

You know what that means...it's -- ODDS WISE -- time to stumble and fall, but, I'm going to try and make it three successful days in a row. The Saturday card at Keeneland is tough, tough, tough, and I could probably go six deep in each of the final four races (Races 7-10) in trying to handicap the Late Pick 4. But, $648 is way more than I want to spend on a wager, so...I've tried to narrow it down to four picks per race. There are no big, prohibitive favorites today.  I'll hope for the best, hope that what I've been doing lately in handicapping carries over for today, and hope for some racing luck.

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR, I'LL TRY TO JUMP BACK IN AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY CHANGES)

RACE 7 -- ALLOWANCE -- 83K -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS -- (TURF) 

5 -- READY FOR CHANGE

8 -- VIOLENZA

6 -- NOTORIOUS RBG

4 -- CHILI PETIN 

RACE 8 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- 80K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

3 -- SOUTH BEND

7 -- TOP SEED

6 -- MIGHTY HEART

2 -- ROYAL MESA

RACE 9 -- ELKHORN STAKES -- GII -- 200K -- 1-1/2 MILE (TURF) 

 1 -- CROSS BORDER     (scratched)

6 -- TIDE OF THE SEA

2 -- SAY THE WORD

10 -- RED KNIGHT

7 -- NORTH DAKOTA

RACE 10 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMNG -- 20K -- SIX FURLONGS

3 -- LOOPALLU

12 -- CAN'T SAY NO

8 -- HIGH FIVE COTTON

6 -- FINNEGAN

THE PLAY 

I'll keep it real simple today and just play my top four picks in Races 7-10 for a .50 cent late Pick 4.  

Total cost: $128

4,5,6,8/2,3,6,7/1,2,6,10/3,6,8,12

                                                   ******************************

(If you're looking for a bigger play, for example -- the Pick 5 (Races 6-10) -- I do like my old pal Paul McGee's runner #5 PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE in Race 6.  He's got speed, is coming off a 5 month layoff, shortening up and may needs this one -- but could be ready to start 2021 in fine fashion.  Buyer beware on him -- but he had a smoking,  bullet work over five furlongs at Churchill back on April 6th and might be ready to graduate out of the maiden ranks today.

 Once again, this is another VERY competitive race and regular jock Joe Talamo is NOT riding (Bejarano gets the nod).  I'll probably try him in some sort of fashion, maybe not in a Pick 5, but I'll watch the board and see how he's bet. Half the field in Race 6 are first time starters, and that always raises a few caution flags for me.  I usually don't like to "single" in races, so...do what you will with him. 

I'll watch the odds. 

Good luck today! 

paulie

 

Keeneland & Oaklawn Results -- 4/10/21

 A good day for picking winners yesterday at both Oaklawn and Keeneland for me. Out of the eight races I handicapped, I had seven winners -- including a 18-1 shot in Keeneland's Stonestreet and 12-1 in the Arkansas Derby. 

I gave you 32 horses in all to consider and had those seven winners, plus seven seconds and five thirds. That's a 60% "in the money" percentage. Out of the 24 "payable slots" up for grabs, I filled 19 of them for a 79% success rate. 

I hit the two Pick 3's I offered at Oaklawn, but fell short on the Pick 4 at Keeneland, running second and third in the Giant's Causeway Stakes. The Pick 3's , though, returned a total of $179 on $128 wagered, and a nice side bet on 18-1 KING FURY in the Stonestreet made it a profitable day. 

KEENELAND

Race 7 -- the Ben Ali Stakes -- brought SILVER DUST home first at 9/2 odds. I had the trifecta in that race, also giving you Night Ops and Beau Luminaire. 

Race 8 -- A Pick 4 wrecker, with 8-1 CHANGE OF CONTROL besting Into Mystic and Jakarta in the stretch. 

Race 9 -- The battle was supposed to be between Proxy, Swiftsure and Hockey Dad, but my fourth pick KING FURY passed them in the stretch and won easily at 18-1. "The King" probably won't make the Derby field, but keep him in mind for the Preakness. A "hunch" side bet on King Fury was a day-saver. 

Race 10 -- JULIET FOXTROT, (8/5), proved to be the best, over Tamahere, to win the Jenny Wiley, and I gave you both of those. 

The Pick 4 paid a handsome $2941.10 on a .50 cent wager -- maybe a deeper dive in Race 8 would have brought it to me, I had circled CHANGE OF CONTROL in my earlier handicapping, but set him aside to include In Good Spirits in my top four picks, who obviously did not like the yielding turf.  Study long, study wrong -- in this case. 

OAKLAWN 

Race 9 -- The Oaklawn Mile saw second betting choice BY MY STANDARDS (2-1) handle Rushie and Wells Bayou. I had the trifecta in this race.  

Race 10 -- This competitive optional claiming went to MIGHTY MISCHIEF (8/5), who outran Name Rejected and Game Day Plan. Another trifecta in my picks. 

Race 11 -- Everyone saw the Count Fleet Stakes as a battle between Whitmore and CZ Rocket. I thought highly of both, and it was CZ ROCKET'S day, winning convincingly in the six furlong sprint at 2-1 odds. Not much on this Pick 3 -- $26.90 on the $1 wager

Race 12 -- The Arkansas Derby set up, allegedly to be a battle between Concert Tour and Caddo River. I also liked SUPER STOCK, though, and he got it done for me at 12-1 odds, flying by Concert Tour (3rd) and Caddo River (2nd) in the stretch. It concluded a Pick 3 that was worth $152.10.

I was disappointed there was not a Pick 4 for this sequence. I toyed with the idea of playing my top four picks in races 10-12 and hitting the (ALL) button in Race 13. The cost ($320) scared me off, and the return ($260.80) on a .50 variety proved my decision to be a wise one.  

On the day, I wagered a total of $296. The Keeneland Pick Four, two Pick Threes at Oaklawn and two $20 to win side bets to win on King Fury and Night Ops.  I got back $560, so, I showed a profit, largely due to my "hunch bet, let's play the odds" wager on King Fury. 

So, Super Stock, trained by Steve Asmussen, gets the Derby spot out of the Arkansas Derby. Concert Tour and Caddo River have enough "points" to get in the Derby, but, whether Bob Baffert (Concert Tour) and Brad Cox (Caddo River) send them remains to be seen. Watching a replay of the race, Super Stock laid off the hot early fractions and moved near the top of the stretch, swung four wide and zoomed past Caddo River and Concert Tour. He was still full of run. Remember, Churchill has a long stretch for the Derby, and if Super Saver can do that in Louisville, he's one I have to consider. 

MY TOP FIVE DERBY CONTENDERS: 

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY

2) HOT ROD CHARLIE

3) LIKE THE KING

4) SUPER STOCK

5) ROCK YOUR WORLD

paulie

Keeneland Picks -- Oaklawn Picks -- 4/10/21

Two great cards at two different tracks today, so let's look at both Keeneland and Oaklawn. A Derby prep at each track, with the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn and the Stonestreet Stakes at Keeneland, so...plenty of good racing --seven stakes races to consider and an optional claiming that could very well quality as a stakes. 

KEENELAND 

RACE 7 -- BEN ALI STTTAKES -- GIII - $150K -- 1-1/8TH MILE

3 -- NIGHT OPS

1 -- BEAU LUMINARE

5 -- SILVER DUST

4 -- SPRAWL 

RACE 8 -- GIANT'S CAUSEWAY STAKES -- $100K -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) 

1 -- INTO MYSTIC

10 -- JAKARTA

3 -- ELLE Z 

2 -- IN GOOD SPIRITS

RACE 9 -- STONESTREET STAKES -- GIII -- $200K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

7 -- PROXY 

6 -- HOCKEY DAD

9 -- KING FURY

2 -- SWIFTSURE

RACE 10 -- JENNY WILEY SSTAKES -- GI -- $300K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF) 

1 -- MICHELINE

3 -- JULIET FOXTROT

2 -- TAMAHERE

4 -- ETOILE

OAKLAWN 

RACE 9 -- OAKLAWN MILE -- $400K -- ONE MILE

5 -- BLACKBERRY WINE

4 -- RUSHIE

6 -- BY MY STANDARDS

3 -- WELLS BAYOU

RACE 10 -- OPTION CLAIMING -- 75K -- SIX FURLONGS 

7 -- MIGHTY MISCHIEF

1 -- NAME REJECTED

2 -- GAME DAY PLAN 

3 -- INVINCIBILITY

RACE 11 -- CONT FLEET STAKES -- GIII -- $500K -- SIX FURLONGS 

2 -- WHITMORE

1 -- NO PAROLE

6 -- CZ ROCKET

4 -- STRIKE POWER

RACE 12 --  ARKANSAS DERBY -- GI -- $1 MILLION -- 1-1/8TH MILE

5 -- CONCERT TOUR

2 -- CADDO 

3 -- HOZIER

1 -- SUPER STOCK 

( If there are any scratches , I'll jump back in here and make the necessary adjustments, so make sure to check back before betting.) 

THE PLAY:

I'll take my top four picks in each of the eight races and build (1) .50 Pick 4 out of KEENELAND AND A $1 PICK 3 (9-11) AT OAKLAWN. Here's hoping it isn't a "chalky day" at either track. I'll play the Arkansas Derby (race 12)  as a end to another Pick 3 for RACES 10-12. Wet conditions are a distinct possibility at Keeneland, and I've handicapped for the probability of it. 

KEENELAND:

1,3,4,5/1,2,3,10/2,6,7,9/1,2,3,4     COST:  $128

OAKLAWN:

(RACES 9-11)      3,4,5,6/1,2,3,7/1,2,4,6       COST: $ 64

(RACES 10-12)   1,2,3,7 / 1,2,4,6/ 1,2,3,5     COST:   $64

 Good luck today!  

paulie

Keeneland Results -- Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby results 4-3-21

 It was a "chalky" day at Keeneland yesterday. I offered a Late Pick 4 and hit it, but favorites took three of  the four races and none of the winners were higher than 2-1 odds. So, I hit the Pick 4 and actually lost over $100. 

The late Scott Harris summed it up best years ago when he sagely commented: 

"We can pick winners, but we can't pick what we'll get paid." 

On the day, I offered 16 horses in the Late Pick Four sequence (Races 8-11) ay Keeneland. I had four winners,  four places and two shows. That's a 62.5% "in the money" number. I filled 10 of the 12 "payable" spots for 83.3%. My top pick in each of the four races won. 

KEENELAND

Race 8 -- Bound For Nowhere was the second favorite at 2-1 and used a well-timed stretch run in the sprint to get by favorite Imprimis. The Critical Way completed the trifecta. 

Race 9 -- Malathaat went off at 3/2 and easily handled the field in the Ashland Grade I. Pass The Champagne ran well for second. Will's Secret got the show. 

Race 10 -- Kimari went off at 3/5 and looked every bit of it in the win. Bell's The One bested the rest for second. 

Race 11 - In the Derby Prep Blue Grass Stakes, Essential Quality and Highly Motivated drew away from the rest of the field and battled the entire race. Essential Quality got the lead at the 16th pole and got the win by a neck at the wire at 1-2 odds. 

The Pick 4 paid a paltry $14.70 on the .50 cent wager. 

So, Essential Quality moves on the the Derby, if he comes out of the race OK. If I owned Highly Motivated, I's send him as well to Churchill to run for the roses. These two beat the competition by at least six lengths and it was reminiscent of the battles Alydar and Affirmed had back in 1978. If you're unfamiliar with the battles these two had in the Triple Crown, you need to go back and watch them. 

It is what we'll see in the Derby?  

In the Santa Anita Derby, Rock Your World, the third-favorite at 5-1, took the lead early and led them all the way with a four length win. He punched his ticket to Churchill, defeating big favorite Medina Spirit and Dream Shake very easily. Can he engage in a speed duel with Essential Quality? 

Consider this:  Rock Your World covered the 1-1/8th in 1:49:17. Essential Quality covered the same distance in 1:48:50.  Figure in any track bias and conditions that you want . I call it too close to tell, Rock Your World was not pushed by anyone at the end and Essential Quality had to fight Highly Motivated the entire trip. 

Then, there was the Wood Memorial. 

In a shocker, Bourbonic, at 72-1 odds, won in the crawling time of 1:54.49. A last-to -first stretch run got him there in time over another Todd Pletcher runner, Dynamic One -- by a head. Bourbonic was double digits last as the rounded the final turn, but used a furious stretch run to get up at the wire. 

I can't see Bourbonic doing much in the Derby, I'l  bet that Pletcher sends him, maybe with Dynamic Run -- but the time just doesn't make him a contender in my thinking.   

Anyway...we'll give it a go again next week and hope for better payouts. 

paulie

 

Keeneland Picks -- Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby -- 4/3/21

 

A great day of racing returns to the Blue Grass as Keeneland features a multitude of stakes races, including Derby qualifier The Blue Grass Stakes. Also, two other Derby preps in the Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby.

I'll chase the Late Pick 4 at Keeneland today and also look at the Wood and Santa Anita. 

KEENELAND

RACE 8 -- SHAKERTOWN STAKES -- GII -- $200K -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) 

2 -- IMPRISIS

13 -- BOUND FOR NOWHERE

12 -- THE CRITICAL WAY

9 -- JUST MIGHT

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 7 - KANTHAKA

RACE 9 -- ASHLAND STAKES -- GI -- $400K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

5 -- MALATHAAT

3 -- SIMPLY RAVISHING

6 -- WILL'S SECRET

2 -- PASS THE CHAMPAGNE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- CURLIN'S CATCH) 

RACE 10 -- THE MADISON STAKES -- GI -- $300K -- SEVEN FURLONGS 

5 -- KIMARI

4 -- BELL'S THE ONE

6 -- SCONSIN

1 -- SANENUS

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 7 -- FAIR MAIDEN) 

RACE 11 -- THE BLUE GRASS STAKES -- GII -- $800K -- 1-1/8TH MILE

4 -- ESSENTIAL QUALITY

3 -- HIGHLY MOTIVATED

2 -- UNTREATED 

1 -- HIDDEN STASH

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- RAMBAUER) 

WOOD MEMORIAL 

4 -- RISK TAKER

6 -- PREVALENCE 

8 -- WEYBURN

7 -- CANDY MAN ROCKET

SANTA ANITA DERBY

7 -- MEDINA SPIRIT

8 -- LAW PROFESSOR

10 -- DEFUNDED

2 -- DREAM SHAKE

THE PLAY: 

I'll do the .50 late Pick 4 at Keeneland (Races 8-11) and use my top four picks in each races. 

Cost: $ 128

At the Wood, I'll take my top four picks and build a $1 Pick 3 ending with the Wood Memorial. I'll use (5) Modernist, (4) Limonite and (7) Mr Buff in Race 8, then, in Race 9, use (8) Search Results, (3) Mia Martina (5) The Grass Is Blue and (6) Alwayz Late.   Cost:  $48

At Santa Anita, I'll use my top four picks in the Santa Anita Derby (Race 8)  and then go to Race Nine and use (3) Charmaine's Mia and (2) Tapwater and (5) Raymundo's Secret. I'll end with Race 10 and use (5) Becca's Secret, (8) Pawnee and (9) Pray For My Owner.   Cost:  $18.

Good luck today and enjoy the races ! 

paulie