I'll be taking my traditional "winter off" from providing picks here aat the site and will return in Feb. to start looking at the Glfstream racing and pre-Derby trail.
Have a Merry Christmas, Happy New Year and stay safe!
An interesting day of racing at Churchill yesterday, no doubt. I handicapped the final four races on the card and "got the sweep" -- hitting all four of them with winners. In fact, I had the top three finishers in all four events (Races 9-12) in a sequence where we saw a 9/2, even money, 2-1 and 4-1 take the prizes.
I gave you 24 horses to consider over the final four races, 12 finished in the money for a 50% IN THE MONEY percentage. I DID GO 12 FOR 12 in the payout slots.
Race 9 featured 9/2 odds TRAVEL COLUMN overcoming a tough trip and blowing by odds-on favorite SIMPLY RAVISHING in the stretch for the win. The favorite did not hit the board, which set up a nice trifecta for me that paid $81.05 on the .50 cent, five horse tri box in the Golden Rod Stakes
Race 10 was all about the favorite. MANDALOUN toyed with the field before destroying the rest in the stretch to win pretty easily. That trifecta wasn't a great pay, returning $38.80, but, it covered the $30 tri boxes I settled on as my wagering strategy yesterday.
Race 11 gave us 2-1 KEEPMEINMIND getting to the winner's circle in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. This one was a "last to first" winner, trailing the field until the top of the stretch, and then swinging seven-wide and charging down the center of the track to catch and pass the leader and win by a length. The tri paid $35.70. If you were playin Pick 3's, sorry about your luck...you got back just $19 on a .50 cent wager.
Race 12 belonged to RUNWAY MAGIC. He broke his maiden in front running style and held off the rest at 4-1 odds. A good ride from Julian Leparoux to hold off hard-charging OUTASITE and REPO ROCKS. A trifecta return of $41.25, the Pick 3 got you $23.30 and the Pick 4 was worth $169.50.
If you followed my picks yesterday, you experienced the rarity of hitting the Pick 4 and actually losing money. As we've said here beffore, though, I can pick winners, but I can't pick what they pay. At least they were winners.
Today concludes the Fall Churchill meet and there are mandatory payouts for all the multi-race options. Due to commitments at my other site (CARDINAL COUPLE) I won't be providing any picks for the clsoing card.
WE'LL SEE YOU IN 2021. Stay safe and best of luck to you!
A great card for Saturday racing, highlighted by two stakes races in the final four. It's "two-year old" day today at Churchill, with the Golden Rod Stakes and Ky Jockey Club Stakes to be run in Races 9 &11..
The two-year olds can be quite unpredictable. If you're going to do the "multi race" wagers, be sure and protect yourself and give yourself enough coverage. To be honest with you, Race 9 looks like (at least on paper) Simply Ravishing's to lose. After that, it's throw a dart at a board, pretty much. Bot, I've put some time into it and got the best I can come up with here for you in the final four races of the day.
RACE 9 -- GOLDEN ROD STAKES -- GII - $200K -- 1-1/16TH MILE
8 -- SIMPLY RAVISHING
5 -- TRAVEL COLUM
6 -- CLAIRIERE
3 -- COACH
( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER):
9 -- PRINCESS THEOREM
10 -- ALEXANDRIA
RACE 10 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- 75K -- SEVEN FURLONGS
4 -- PICO D' ORO
10 -- MANDALOUN
11 -- ULTIMATE
3 -- TWILIGHT BLUE
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER):
1 -- KING'S OVATION
6 -- FOUNDER
RACE 11 -- KY JOCKEY CLUB STAKES -- GII -- $200K -- 1-1/16TH MILE
1 -- SITTIN ON GO
4 -- KEEPMEINMIND
2 -- SWILL
3 -- ARABIAN PRINCE
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER):
5 -- INSPECTOR FROST
7 -- KING FURY
RACE 12 -- MAIDEN -- 85K -- SEVEN FURLONGS
10 -- RUNWAY MAGIC
11 -- GROUP HUG
6 -- LAUGHING BOY
7 -- OUTASITE
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER):
4 -- REPO ROCKS
9 -- SABUDA
I'll probably go with the trifecta boxes again today, they really paid off Friday. A couple of Pick 3's aren't out of the question as well. As for a Pick 4, I'll offer one here -- but haven't decided if I want to play it yet or not. (These last three races are VERY challenging)
Pick 4 possibility:
Race 9 -- 5,6,8
Race 10 -- 1,3,4,6,10,11
Race 11 -- 1,2,3,4
Race 12 -- 4,6,7,9,10,11
COST: $216 on the .50 bet
If that's a bit pricey for you, you could try a "single" in Race 9 with SIMPLY RAVISHING, but I rarely "single" and -- based on what the Pick 4 paid yesterday -- with NO favorites winning in the final five races and a $7000+ payday in the sequence, the old adage "spend a little more to make a bunch" seems like it could be a wise one to follow.
In any event, play 'em anyway you like. I'll probably go deep on things, I'm way ahead for the meet and the year and can do it.
This will be the final Paulie Picks edition until mid January, when Pegasus World Cup goes at Gulfstream and, soon after. important Derby Preps start to come together. See ya then!
I outlined five races for Friday's card at Churchill and had some successes with the picks. I looked at the final five on the Friday card (Races 7-11) and came up with four winners, four places and four shows. I offered 29 "horses to consider" after scratches, so the "in the money percentage was 41%. When you consider there were 15 "money spots"(win, place and show) to fill, and I filled 12 of them, that percentage is 73%
We hit two Pick Threes in the sequence and also three trifectas. Let's look at the results.
Race 7 gave us the top three finishers out of my picks. Funnybet took the race at 4-1 odds and this one was my top pick. That trifecta returned $48.50 on the .50 cent box.
Race 8 belonged to Villanelle. She went off at 4-1 odds. I also had the trifecta in this race and it paid $119.50 on the .50 cent box.
Race 9 ended with Hog Creek Hustle holding off the rest in the stretch and it was my top pick in the race. "The Hog" went off at 3-1 odds. That also gave me the first Pick 3 I attempted and it paid $57.80 on the ,50 cent attempt.
Race 10, the Clark Handicap delivered a bit of a price upset when Bodexpress crossed the line first at 11-1 odds. I loved the runner, though, it was my top pick and set up a nice trifectas that returned $196.50. The finish also gave me my second Pick 3 of the five race sequence that paid $318 on the ,50 attempt.
Race 11 was the only surprise (for me) in the sequence. I was a just a couple of strides away from getting Shell Shock home first (at 12-1 odds), when Atlanta his nose in front to take the win, I didn't have this first time starter in my picks...but got a belated second and third in the race. I can't blame the jock on Shell Shock (Albin Jimenez) for the narrow loss, but I do have to wonder if a more experienced...well, never mind. My favorite in the race (My Mane Girl) never fired and there was a key scratch when (Silverbella) backed out of the affair.
The Pick Four (2-4-8-3) paid $7889 on the .50 cent wager. I didn't try it, if you did, I hope you figured Atlanta in that final leg somehow.
Saturday's card looks challenging, indeed. I'll have a new post later this morning with my picks for it.
The Clark Handicap is the feature for Friday Churchill racing and the Grade I event looks like a good one with plenty of talent on hand. There's also TWO great allowance races, a maiden affair and a optional claiming event in the final five races, so let's go get that money!
RACE 7 -- ALLOWANCE -- 5OK -- 1-1/16TH MILE
2 -- FUNNYBET
7 -- GRAYSONSMACHOGAL
4 -- MALIBU MARLEE
8 -- STRIPPING
(IF SCRACTHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER 9 -- TONAL VISION, 1 -- HASHTAG WINNER)
RACE 8 -- ALLOWANCE -- 87K -- 1-1/16TH MILE
7 -- LONGPANTS REQUIRED
6 -- TEMPERS RISING
1 - O SERAPHINA
2 -- VILLANELLE
( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ OTHERS TO CONSIDER -- 5 -- QUIET DIGNITY, 9 -- MYLASTFIRSTKISS)
RACE 9 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- 80K -- 1 MILE
4 -- HOG CREEK HUSTLE
8 -- LOOKING AT BIKINIS
2 -- SIGNALMAN
5 -- DABO
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER -- 9 -- HOME BASE, 1 -- THIRSTFORLIFE)
RACE 10 -- CLARK HANDICAP -- GI -- 500K -- 1-1/8TH MILE
8 -- BODEXPRESS
12 -- BY MY STANDARDS
9 -- OWENDALE
3 -- CODE OF HONOR
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER) -- 7 -- MR FREEZE, 5 -- AURELIUS MAXIMUS)
RACE 11 -- MAIDEN -- 85K -- SIX FURLONGS
1 -- MY MANE GIRL
7 -- SILVERBELLA
4 -- SPEIGHTLY SHIRL
9 -- FAVORITE SIN
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ OTHER TO CONSIDER) -- 5 -- SHELL SHOCK, 8 -- KISS THEORY)
I had success with a couple of Pick 3's last Saturday, so I'll go back there again with a Race 7,8,9 try and a Race 9,10,11 wager. There's a Pick 5 here, it could get pricey so buyer beware. The Pick 4 starts on Race 8, I'm passing on it but don't let my hesitance stop you. Trifectas look promising today also, I'll probably do some "boxing" on those.
A bit of a cloudy, drizzly day at the Twin Spires yesterday but some very good racing and I did pretty well. I gave you my picks for the final four races on the card (races 7-10) and ended up hitting the Pick 4 and both Pick 3's I tried.
After scratches, I had 21 runners compete in the four races, out of those -- I had four winners, four places and two shows. That's a 48% "in the money percentage. I filled 10 of the 12 "payable" spots available -- for a 83% success rate there.
The two Pic 3's I tried (Races 6-8 and 8-10) paid $235.60 and $20.55 on the .50 variety. That's $256.15 total and I invested $144.00 -- so I ended up with a $112 profit. On the Pick 4, .50 variety - the return was $311.95 and the investment was $144 -- so the profit was $167.
The trifectas weren't quite as profitable. I did (4) tri boxes of five horses -- which cost $30 each on the .50 wager. I hit to of them -- paying $89.76 in Race 7 and $59 in Race 9....so a return of $148 on an investment of $120 and a $28 profit.
It was my "if scratches occur -- others to consider" selections that bailed me out. In Race 7 RADIANTRHYTHM got the win at 10-1 odds and this one wasn't one of my top 4. Race 8 brought THREE TIPSY CHIX home first at 5/2 and this one was in my top four. FINITE was "all that" in Race 9 and was a popular pick (and my top pick) at 6/5 odds. In Race 10, the scratch of BLANKET OF ROSES made handicappers scramble and NEW EAGLE ended up a 2-1 price and won. I has this one on my "alternate" list.
Sometimes you have to go deep. It may cost you a bit more, but, it'll usually provide a winning ticket. If it's maybe a "chalky" day -- like the final three races were -- with 5/2, 6/5 and 2-1 winners -- remember that a winning ticket is just that and that's why we play them.
It beats throwing a loser on the ground, tight?
I hear horseplayers talk about not wanting to invest a bunch of money in a particular sequence or type of bet...but that is a "scared" philosophy and usually ends up in a losing ticket. Sometimes, you have to include the favorites with your long shot picks.
Like anything else in financial realms, you have to spend a little money to make a little money. I wagered a total of $408 in my bets yesterday. I got back $717. I'll take a profit of $300+ any day at the track, and if I have to spend a little extra to get the reward, the ultimate success justifies the initial investment. If the profit exceeds the investment...guess what? YOU MADE MONEY!
As my late friend Gold Room Scotty used to say, "We can pick the winners, we just can't pick what we'll get paid."
With Thanksgiving just around the corner, I'll have "day after Turkey Day" selections here Friday and then my usual Saturday selections.
Since I won't see you until after Thanksgiving, I hope yours is a good one. I know the travelling aspects are risky now and your crowd may be smaller than most years in a lot of cases...but, remember, the sacrifices we make today will pay off down the road, so attribute it to planning for the future, watch a lot of sports over the Thursday-Sunday stretch and stay healthy.
It looks to be a good day for racing this Saturday at Churchill -- the rain maybe coming in later, but, a wide variety of types of races. We have a optional claimer, maiden special weight, Grade III Chilukki Stakes and we end up with a lower level claimer.
It's been decided that Churchill won't run on the turf for the remainder of the meet, the surface isn't responding well to this wacky fall weather, so to the dirt we go and stay. Let's look at the late Pick 4.
RACE 7 --OPTIONAL CLAIMING 20K -- SIX FURLONGS
7 -- KIFFLE
5 -- TAKE CHARGE ERICA
6 -- IT'S COLD IN DEHERE
8 -- JUST FLY
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- OTHER TO CONSIDER: 4-- RADIANTRHYTHM -- 9 -- PARKING TICKET)
RACE 8 -- MAIDEN SPECUAL WEIGHT -- 85K -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS
5 -- WILD COMBO
12 -- TROUBLE MAKING
10 -- FOOLERY
1 -- THREE TIPSY CHIX
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR- OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 13- EUPHONIC -- 6 -- MARION FRANCIS)
RACE 9 -- CHILUKKI STAKES -- G III - 100K -- ONE MILE
2 -- FINITE
3 -- GRAND CRU CLASSIC
6 -- RISKY MANDATE
9 -- SANENUS
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR- OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 1 -- NEW ROO -- 4 -- WHOA NELLIE)
RACE 10 -- CLAIMING -- 10K -- 1-1/16TH MILE
1 -- BAHAMA CHANNEL
8 -- BLANKET OF ROSES
11 -- SMIRK
7 -- MARTIAL EAGLE
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 2 -- GAMBLERS FANTASY -- 4 - NEW EAGLE)
So many ways to go after these final four today, depending on how much you want to "put down" to invest. I'll probably go with a couple of .50 cent Pick 3's and I'm going to back track here in doing so with a VERY competitive 6th race where (4) horses stand out and above the rest.
So, I'll try:
Race 6 -- 1,2,3,6
Race 7 -- 4,5,6,7,8.9
Race 8 -- 1.5,6,10,12,13
Race 8 -- 18.104.22.168.12.13
Race 9 -- 2,3,6,9
Race 10 -- 1,2,4,7,8,11
Just to keep things interesting, I'll toss in a small Pick 5 as well, starting in Race 6:
You can devise a Pick 4 out of this, of course -- and I'd suggest
Play 'em anyway you like...trifectas could get pricey if you "box" so maybe do some wheeling with the picks. ..
A good day yesterday handicapping the final four races at Churchill Downs. I had three scratches face me, so I had to do a bit of late scrambling with the bets and the feature race-- the 9th and Grade III Ms. Revere was moved to the dirt from the turf, but I still managed to hit that one.
In the final analysis, I had 20 runners go forth...when you look at my top picks and my "if scratches occur" selections. Out of those, I had 4 winners, 4 seconds and 1 show. So, it wasn't a grand day for trifectas, but, I did give you four exactas and the Pick 4. The "in the money" percentage was 45% and I filled nine of the 12 "payable" slots for a 75% success rate there.
Race 8 brought BIG BEAUTIFUL WALL to the wire first and he rewarded us at 14-1 with Julian Leparoux on board for one of my favorite Churchill trainers -- Paul McGee. MAKE NOISE scratched, which necessitated putting Big Beautiful Wall into the mix and he got it done That exacta paid $131 on the $1 investment.
Race 9 saw PATIO FLAG draw a lot of money after VILLANELLE scratched and she edged out the favorite OCEAN BREEZE at 7-5 odds to get to the wire first. The combination of Santana riding and Asmussen training scores again and the $1 exacta paid a small $4.80
Race 10, the feature racce -- the Ms. Revere Grade III, drew a lot of money on winner PRINCESS GRACE after favorite HENDY WOODS scratched and she fulfilled the backers belief at 5-2 odds. PASS THE PLATE, trained by Paul McGee, could not catch her in the stretch. Meet leading rider Florent Geroux was the winning jockey and the $1 exacta got you $16.60. That race was the only trifecta I hit, receiving $68.70. If you decided to "roll your Pick 3's" in the final four races this one rewarded you with a $89.50 payout on the .50 cent attempt.
The final race of the day Race 11 is where I thought there might be a longshot winner. It ran pretty true to form, though, with 5-2 HONORIFIQUE nosing out ROOKERY for the final win on the day. $.9.90 on the $1 exacta, that rolling Pick 3 got you $27.40 on the .50 cent wager and the late Pick Four, with the numbers 9-2-4-12 rewarded you with $370.35 on the ,50 cent try. Tyler Gaffalione rode the winner.
If you played the Paulie Picks for the final Pick 4 verbatim, you laid out $135 for a $370 return, so that gave you a +$235 profit. The trifectas, though cost $30 a race for $120, and just got me back $68, so I lost $52 there. But, that still had me up $183 on the day. I'll take it.
If you had gone the five-horse, $1 exacta box route for the four races, you would have turned your $80 investment into $162, a $82 profit...so congratulations if that's how you played the day.
We'll give it a go again next Saturday for closing weekend at Churchill. A longstanding tradition of mine of hitting the track on the Friday after Thanksgiving probably isn't going to happen, with this Covid shit getting worse each day, but, I may look at the final four races there as well and offer you FRIDAY and SATURDAY selections next week.
Fall racing today at Churchill and dry, if a bit breezy, temps face the runners. In other words, typical fall conditions at the Twin Spires. A variety of races on tap for the final four on the card today -- a mis-level claiming, allowance, Stakes race and maiden affair -- all at distances of a mile or better. Three on the dirt, one goes on the turf.
A very competitive card awaits us, let's get into it with the picks!
RACE 8 -- CLAIMING 50K -- I MILE
5 -- MO'S MOJO
7 -- ESKENFORIT
2 -- MO ZONE
10 -- LONELY PRIVATE (SCRATCHED)
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 3 -- MAKE NOISE 9-- BIG BEAUTIFUL WALL
RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE 87K -- 1 MILE
4 -- OCEAN BREEZE
7 -- LOADED
1 -- VILLANELLE (SCRATCHED)
2 -- PALIO FLAG
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- CHAMPAGNE HORIZON)
RACE 10 -- MS. REVERE STAKES -- GIII -- 200K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF)
3 -- STUNNING SKY
1 -- HENDY WOODS (SCRATCHED )
4 -- PRINCESS GRACE
6 -- PASS THE PLATE
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- HOW IRONIC)
RACE 11 -- MAIDEN 85K -- 1 MILE
2 -- GRACE'S SECRET
11 -- ROOKERY
9 -- EMPRESS CATHERINE
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 1 -- HIGH FASHION)
After the successes of Breeders Cup last week, we've got a little money to toss around today. I'll look at trifecta boxes in the four races and probably try a Pick 4 that gives me plenty of coverage in Races 8 and 11 and 2-3 horses in Race 9 and 10.
You might look at:
RACE 8 -- 2,3,5,7,9
RACE 9 -- 1,4,7
RACE 10 -- 1.3.4
RACE 11 -- 1,2,3,9.11,12
There is quite a battle going on for top jockey at Churchill for the fall meet, and Florent Geroux currently sits a top the standings with 16 wins. You'll notice that he also has mounts in all four of these races I've looked at today and he's in my selections in Races 9-11. Tyler Gaffalione has 15 wins at the meet and he has three mounts in the final four races. Ricardo Santana also has 15 wins and I always keep an eye out for him when he's teamed up with trainer Steve Asmussen. They hook up in RACE 9 AND 11,
An old race track adage goes "A horse can't be set aside if on board is a great ride."
Play 'em anyway you like and GOOD LUCK!
An exciting day of Breeders Cup action yesterday! If I was reminded of one thing (and I kinda, sorta knew this going into the day's racing) is that you pay special attention to Irish and European horses running in turf races.
There were four turf races yesterday, and "shippers from overseas" won all four of them. Irish trainer Aiden O'Brien, in fact...swept Race 9 -- The Breeders Cup Turf Mile -- and his entry Order of Australia, the also-eligible #15 horse shocked the racing world at 73-1 odds. I only hit one turf race, in Race 11, when Irish bred Tarwana took the 1-1/2 mile affair at 9/2 odds.
On the day, I gave you 48 horses to consider over the nine Breeders Cup races. Out of those, I had six winners, six places and six shows. That's a lower percentage than I usually come up with at 37.5%. When you consider there were 27 "money spots" available, I filed 67% of them.
I did give you three trifectas (races 4, 8, and 12) and that was a day-saver. They paid (on the .50 box) $13.00, $546.00 and $71.10. Those his more than covered me for the day, I only hit one of the Pick Threes I tried -- it paid $47.20, with Monomoy Girl, Tarwana and Authentic getting to the wire firsr.. I On the trifectas, I did a five-horse, .50 tri box which cost $30. So, I wagered $270 over the nine races on them. I got back $630. That had me up $360. The three Pick threes cost $62.50 each ($187.50 total) and returned just $47...so that was a $140 loss, but the day was still a profit of $220.
I'll take it...and THANK YOU Whitmore!!! ...who hit at 18-1 and created that huge Race 8 trifecta.
I didn't play any, but I also lined out six exactas.
Winners for me ( and hopefully you too) were:
Race 4: Gamine 2-1) -- Race 6: Knicks Go (9/5) -- Race 8: Whitmore (18-1) -- Race 10: Monomoy Girl (1-1) -- Race 11: Tarwana (9/2) and Race 12: Improbable (4-1).
Although I did a lor better Friday...giving you five winners in five races and the three Pick 3's, the late Pick 4 and the Pick 5....the Saturday card was a profit maker for me, so I'll take it.
There are three weeks of racing left at Churchill in the November meet, so I'll be back for those Saturday Races...may throw in Thanksgiving and day after Thanksgiving cards as well and see if we can build a little more profit before we take a break here until the early spring.
Nine big races today in the Breeders Cup at Keeneland and the early undercard is pretty competitive as well. I've provided my picks here for the nine Breeders Cup races, starting in Race 4, but let's review Friday before we get into that.
I gave you five winners in the five Breeders Cup races Friday! Highlighted by 30-1 Fire At Will in the Juvenile Turf, I provided you the winners in all Pick 3's in the sequence, the late Pick 4 and the Pick 5. I hope that lick continues today. Listed below are my top four picks for each race and one or two alternates, in case of scratches or you want to go "deep" in a particular race.
RACE 4 -- BC FILLY AND MARE SPRINT -- 7 FURLONGS
7 -- SERENGETI EMPRESS
2 - GAMINE
9 -- BELL'S THE ONE
5 -- SCONSIN
( 3 -- COME DANCING)
RACE 5 -- BC TURF SPRINT -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF)
12 -- GOT STORMY
7 -- LEINSTAR
8 -- OLEKSANDRA
9 -- INTO MYSTIC
(2 -- JUST MIGHT) (3 - IMPRIMUS)
RACE 6 -- BC DIRT MILE -- 1 MILE
5 -- KNICKS GO
4 -- WAR OF WILL
10 -- COMPLEXITY
1 -- ART COLLECTOR
(12 -- OWENDALE)
RACE 7 -- BC FILLY AND MARE TURF -- 1-3/16TH MILE (TURF)
4 -- MEAN MARY
1 -- STARSHIP JUBILEE
6 -- RUSHING FALL
2 -- SISTER CHARLIE
(14 -- CAYENNE PEPPER) (9 -- HARVEY'S LIL GOIL)
RACE 8 -- BC SPRINT -- 6 FURL
2 -- CZ ROCKET
8 -- FIRENZA FIRE
7 -- WHITMORE
3 -- COLLUSION ILLUSION
(11 -- DIAMOND OOPS) (10 -- YAUPON)
RACE 9 -- BC TURF MILE -- 1 MILE (TURF)
13 -- FACTOR THIS
5 -- DIGITAL AGE
8 -- MARCH TO THE ARCH
12 -- UNI
(2 -- KAMEKO) (9 -- ONE MASTER)
RACE 10 -- BC DISTAFF -- 1-1/8TH MILE
5 -- SWISS SKYDIVER
10 -- MONOMOY GIRL
8 -- VALIANCE
9 -- OLLIE'S CANDY
(7 -- POINT OF HONOR) (2 -- HARVEST MOON)
RACE 11 -- BC TURF -- 1-1/2 MILE (TURF)
1 -- ARKLOW
9 -- CHANNEL MAKER
2 -- MAGICAL
10 -- MOGUL
( 3 -- TARWANA) (7 -- UNITED)
RACE 12 -- BC CLASSIC -- 1-1/4TH MILE
2 -- TIZ THE LAW
8 -- IMPROBABLE
9 -- AUTHENTIC
10 -- MAXIMUM SECURITY
(4 -- TOM D'ETAT) (1 -- TACITUS)
With nine races, there are a ton of betting options available. I'm probably going to bet three Pick 3's (Races 4-6, 7-9 and 10-12) and maybe a late Pick 4 (Races 9 -12). There's money to be made today on exactas and tris, though, if you prefer.
The Europeans on the turf are always a hard entity to figure out. With four turf races, there is a chance there will be a couple of European wins -- be mindful of this and if yousee a dramatic "odds drop" on a European runner -- it might be "wise guy" money and consider.
Good luck today. It's a beautiful day for racing and it starts early (10:15 a.m.)
Five juvenile races in the Friday edition of Breeders Cup and some very tough ones to call in these. We'll give it a shot and see...
RACE 6 -- JUVENILE TURF SPRINT -- $1 MILLION -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF)
14 -- GOLDEN PAL (EASY WINNER)
10 -- BODENHEIMER
5 -- COWAN (GOT UP FOR SECOND)
3 -- LIPIZZANER
RACE 7 -- JUVENILE TURF -- $ 1 MILLION -- 1 MILE (TURF)
5 -- CADILLAC
11 -- GRETZKEY THE GREAT
12 -- GO ATHLETICO
7 -- FIRE AT WILL (BOOM! 30-1 WINNER !)
RACE 8 -- JUVENILE FILLIES -- $2 MILLION -- 1-1/16TH MILE
3 -- DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE (HELD ON FOR SECOND)
2 -- VEQUIST (WON FOR FUN)
1 -- SIMPLY RAVISHING
7 -- PRINCESS NOOR
RACE 9 -- JUVENILE FILLIES TURF -- $2 MILLION -- 1-1/16TH (TURF)
5 -- AUNT PEARL (WIRE-TO-WIRE CONVINCING WINNER)
4 -- PLUM ALI
10 -- CAMPANELLE
12 -- SPANISH LOVE AFFAIR
RACE 10 -- JUVENILE -- $2 MILLION -- 1-1/16TH
7 -- JACKIE'S WARRIOR
5 -- ESSENTIAL QUALITY ( GOT 'EM IN THE STRETCH!)
13 -- RAMBAUER
8 -- CLASSIER
Good luck today with the card! There is a Pick 5 available for these five races, if you don't want to go too deeep in the pocket, maybe try two Pick 3's? Or the Pick 4 starting in Race 7
If there are any scratches, I'll try and jump in here with them as they develop.
An interesting ans a bit weird day out at Churchill yesterday. The officials decided to take the 7th and 10th races off the turf, which kinda messed up my handicapping efforts. Despite this, I still managed to give you the winner in each "off the gtass" races. Then, the races on the dirt didn't turn out as I planned.
After scratches, I had 15 of the horses I selected break from the gate.in the final four races of day. Out of those, I had two winners, one place and two shows. A rather low 33% "in the money" percentage. I filled five of the 12 "payable spots" -- for a 42% success race.
Race 7 featured Phantom Currency hitting the wire first at 7-1 odds. This one was my "if scratches occur" picks.
Race 8 hurt me, out of my five picks, all I got was a third place finish with Amusing Antics. 4-1 Modern Waltz got the win.
Race 9 shut me out mostly as well, with just my "if scratches occur" pick Bourbon Calling hitting the board for second. 8-1 Crafty Daddy got the win
Race 10 had Better With Age going to the winners circle and I had this one at 5-2 odds.
The Pick Four paid a whopping $1794 on the .50 cent wager.
The action moves to Keeneland for my handicapping pursuits and the Breeders Cup next week. I'll post Friday and Saturday picks on ALL the Breeders Cup races and we'll see how me do.
Happy Halloween to all you ghouls and goblins out there. It should be a spooky and frightening card out at Churchill today -- no stakes races -- but Race 9 has a lot of occasional stakes runners and is a high level optional claiming affair. There's also two challenging maiden affairs to handicap on the late card and another optional claiming -- so we do have a lot of treats in store for us. I'm not going under any ladders and I'm avoiding the black cats, but I did hit the Thursday and Friday Late Pick 4's -- so...I ain't afraid of no horses and look to bust the track up again today! Where's that rabbit foot?
RACE 7 -- OPT. CLM 89K -- 1-3/8TH MILES (TURF)
1 -- BOURBON IN MAY
8 -- VALUE ENGINEERING
2 -- KINENOS
9 -- COUNTER OFFER
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 6 - PHANTON CURRENCY)
RACE 8 -- MAIDEN 85K -- SIX FURLONGS
4 -- EASY TO BLESS
8 -- AMUSING ANTICS
10 -- MILANA
7 -- TAGSEEMAAT
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 6 - HAPPY SUNRISE)
RACE 9 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- 100K -- 1-1/16TH MILE
9 -- ENDORSED
8 -- CAPTIVATING MOON
2 -- FACT FINDING
8 -- RATED R SUPERSTAR
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 10 -- BOURBON CALLING)
RACE 10 -- MAIDEN CLAIMING -- 50K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF)
3 -- TELLER TO SING
8 -- KISS MO
10 -- BETTER WITH AGE
4 -- A KITTEN FOR KATIE
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 11 - LACROIX VALMER)
Next week is Breeders Cup and I'll be back with FRIDAY and SATURDAY picks for you at Keeneland.
Closing day at Keeneland, or at least until Breeders Cup in a couple of weeks there. I gave you 16 horses to consider yesterday and out of those I had two winners, two places and two show runners. 38% "in the money: -- one of the lowest percentages I've had in a while. I did cover six of the 12 payable spots
Admittedly, my handicapping was a bit off and I attribute a lot of that to playing "big name" jockeys yesterday. That plan went awry when Samy Camacho got the win in Race 7 and James Graham took first in Race 9.
My Pick 4, therefore, did not hit. If you nailed it, you got a nice $588.80 on the .50 cent wager.
That's the way it goes sometimes, you study, plan and the horses prove you wrong.
Have a Super Sunday and we'll see you at Churchill next week.
It's the final day of the meet at Keeneland, so let's get ready for Churchill by building up a little bankroll ! The rain should be gone, but the turf could be a mess, so be forewarned...
RACE 7 -- ALLOWANCE 71K -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF)
2 -- FOOCH
8 -- AMERICAN MANDATE
9 -- MUNN PASSAGE
8 -- SHARED LEGACY
(IF SCRATCHES OCCCUR: 6 -- PHAST PHAROAH, 7 -- NETTLETON)
RACE 8 -- MAIDEN 70K -- 1-1/16TH MILE
8 -- ANTIGRAVITY
4 -- MUNQAD
5 -- HIDDEN STA5H
9 -- JOE MAN JOE
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 2 -- CALL PAPA, 7 -- MCDOWELL)
RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE 75K -- 1 MILE (TURF)
2 -- IN GOOD SPIRITS
7 -- LUCKY JINGLE
8 -- FACCIO IO
9 -- KOURVOISIER
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 12 --MIZZEN BEAU, 3 -- ASK BAILEY)
RACE 10 -- MAIDEN 70K -- SIX FURLONGS
7 -- MANDALOUN
9 -- MIDNIGHT WARSHIP
10 -- ROCKSTAR RO
1 -- PLUCKY STRIKE
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 6 -- DEVIL'S FIRE, 2 -- NAME REJECTED)
Not a bad day handicapping the horses at Keeneland yesterday. I gave you 16 horses to consider yesterday in the final four races (7-10) and an additional eight in case of scratches. There were scratches, including one I really loved a lot in DON'T BLAMEROCKET in the 8th Race, but...20 of my picks ran and I had three out of the four winners in the final sequence of races.
Three winners, four seconds and two thirds for a 45% "in the money" percentage. I filled nine of the 12 payable lots for 66%.
Add in three exactas and two trifectas I hit, including the final two trifectas that paid $104.75 and $177.75 on the .50 cent venture.
It always seems that one race "blows up" at Keeneland in the final sequence and that happened in the eighth race yesterday
SUGOI was spoiler of the day in my selections, taking Race 8 at 23-1 odds with Joe Rocco getting the win. In the others, I gave you THINKING in Race 7 at 4-1, odds-on favorite VENETIAN HARBOR, at 3-5 odds in Race 8 and MONEY FOR MISCHIEF in Race 10 who went off at 12-1.
I didn't attempt the Pick 4 wager, wouldn't have hit it if I had... but it did pay $4991.25 on the .50 cent wager. When I looked at the possibilities of betting it, and with my top pick gone in Race 8, I did the numbers on a 6x(all) x 4 x6 wager and it would have cost $648 !! Nope, no thank you..but it did pay much more than that.
As we get closer to Breeders Cup, the racing continues at Keeneland and we'll try again next week.
Fall racing at Keeneland today and it looks like a beautiful day for it. The final four races of the day offer a wide variety of classifications -- a maiden special weight, allowance, Grade II and claimer. Let's get to it!
RACE 7 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- 70K -- SEVEN FURLONGS
11 -- THINKING
7 -- BEL FIORE
10 -- WICKED BISOU
3 -- THREE TIPSY CHIX
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)
2 -- HIPPIE COWGIRL
12 -- MINER'S QUEEN
RACE 8 -- ALLOWANCE 75 K -- 1-1/8TH MILE -- (TURF)
2 -- DONTBLAMEROCKET
7 -- CORELLI
9 -- HIERARCHY
1 -- RITZY AP
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)
4 -- MIDNIGHT TEA TIME
10 -- TEMPLE
RACE 9 -- RAVEN RUN STAKES -- GRADE II -- 200K -- SEVEN FURLONGS
5 -- VENETIAN HARBOR
2 - -FOUR GRACES
8 -- FAIR MAIDEN
9 -- GRAND CRU CLASSIC
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)
6 -- REAGAN'S EDGE
4 -- FINITE
RACE 10 -- CLAIMING 20K -- 1-1/16TH MILE
2 -- QUARTERBACK DAK
8 -- DRINK
9 -- EL SUPREMO
3 -- MONEY FOR MISCHIEF
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)
4 -- TIZ MCNAMARA
1 -- WHY WHY PAUL WHY
Good luck today on the card! As a bonus, in Race 3 -- KIFFLE returns to the track today after her impressive romp at Gulfstream back in April. New trainer but Gaffalione back in the saddle. I put her in my "horses to watch" stable back then and she should romp this rather weak optional claiming field. You may not get much of a price on her, but the works up to today's race look outstanding and if she returns to her last race form, look out.
An interesting day of racing yesterday at Keeneland. The rain never showed up that I had handicapped for , but....out of the 20 horses I gave you, I had three winners, three seconds and two thirds. That's a 40% "in the money" percentage, which is a little lower that I normally hit for. I filled eight of the 12 possible "payout" sports available.
I've always handicapped races differently when I expect the track to go "sloppy" and the turf wet. That's what I did yesterday, but, mother nature had different ideas....keeping it dry.
In RACE 7, we saw one of my picks ROC'S PRINCESS take them from gate to wire to win at a very nice 19-1 odds. That was a nice start to the Pick 3 and Pick 4.
RACE 8 was the Fayette and MR FREEZE get the win. He wsn't one of my original top four picks, but I moved him up and used him when scratches occured in the race. The winner went off at 3/2 odds.
The Queen Elizabeth Cup in RACE 10 went to HARVEY'S LIL GOIL who pulled away in the turf stretch and won at 7/2 odds. She helped me hit the Pick 3 for Races 7,8,9 that paid a nice $141.60 on the .50 cent wager.
RACE 11 was a major upset with a 29-1 shot (CRITICAL THREAT) getting a perfectly timed ride from Martin Garcia to come storming down the stretch and nosing out my picks, who ran second and third.
If you played the Pick 4 and managed to hit it, you were rewarded with $4681 on a .50 attempt.
I'll give it a go next Saturday. .
On what looks to be a rainy day later this afternoon at Keeneland, I'll try the final four races at the historic Lexington track. A nice assortment of races -- with two stakes races, a challenging maiden special weight to kic k it off and a maiden claimer to end the card.
With rain comes scratches, as we all know, so I've listed some "if scratches occur" under my top picks:
RACE 7 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- 70K -- 6-1/S FURLONGS
9 -- ONE FAST ORB
8 -- TABOR HALL
1 -- ROC'S PRINCESS
11 -- MAKING PROGRESS
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR: 6--SPITZ, 4-- BINGE WORTHY)
RACE 8 -- FAYETTE STAKES -- GRADE II -- 200K -- 1-1/8TH MILE
5 -- TITLE READY
8 -- TAX
2 -- CAPTIVATING MOON
1 -- COASTAL DEFENSE
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR: 3--CRAFTY DADDY, 6 -- MR FREEZE)
RACE 9 -- QE CUP -- GRADE I -- 500K -- 1-1/8TH MILE (TURF)
1 -- HARVEY'S LIL GOIL
9 -- RED LARK
7 -- MICHELINE
2 -- SWEET MELANIA
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR: 4 -- MAGIC ATTITUDE, 6 -- HENDY WOODS)
RACE 10 -- MAIDEN CLAIMING -- 40K -- SIX FURLONGS
3 -- CAPLEY
8 -- KICK SOME TALE
2 -- LOVE MY JIMMY
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR: 1-- HILLBILLY, 7 -- ESCAPE ROUTE)
GOOD LUCK TODAY AND BET 'EM ANYWAY YOU LIKE...
A pretty successful day of handicapping selections at Pimlico yesterday for Preakness Stakes Day. I took on nine of the races on the card (races 3-11) and offered 36 horses for you to consider. Out of those, I had seven winners, seven places and seven shows. That's a 58% "in the money" success rate. When you consider there were 27 "money" spots available, I cashed in on 78% of the win, place and show payouts.
I also had six exactas and four trifectas hit for me in the nine races. I tried three Pick 3's in the nine race sequence and hit the final one...which rewarded me nicely with a $369.20 payout for races 9,10 and 11.
I had two readers contact me with their results. One of them did a simple four-horse trifecta box on all 11 races that cost her $216. She got back $244, so that a profitable afternoon. The other reader played just the Preakness Stakes, He took my top four picks in the win and place slots and hit the "all" button for show. It was a .50 cent wager that cost him $60. He got back a huge $602.85 payout...no doubt boosted by 40-1 shot Jesus' Team finishing third and 11-1 Swiss Skydiver nosing out the heavy favorite Authentic for the win. The funny thing is, he didn't even watch the race...having to work...and didn't realize how much he made until hours later.
We'll migrate back to Keeneland next week. I was looking at today's Sunday card just briefly this morning and it looks very competitive. At first glance, I like #1 Love Struck and #7 Batyah in the Miss Grillo Stakes and #4 Into The Sunrise and #11 Barrister Tom in the Bourbon Stakes.
And so we head to the third leg of the upside down Triple Crown of Horse Racing. Pimlico has a great card of stakes racing and I've decided to go there with the picks today. Nine races handicapped for you, starting with Race 3 and ending with the Preakness Stakes.
If scratches occur, I'll try to update the picks as needed...
RACE 3 -- SKIPAT STAKES -- $100K -- SIX FURLONGS
4 -- LIZA STAR
6 -- BROWN BEAAUTY
3 -- NEVER ENOUGH TIME
5 -- BYE BYE J
RACE 4 -- HILLTOP STAKES -- $100K -- 1 MILE (TURF)
7 -- VIGILANTES WAY
4 -- CARAVEL
2 -- CHART
5 -- EVIL LYN
RACE 5 -- MISS PREAKNESS -- GRADE III -- $150K -- SIX FURLONGS
1 -- AIN'T NO ELMERS
5 -- MUNDAYE CALL
3 -- FLY ON ANGEL
4 -- SOUND MACHINE
RACE 6 -- DINNERR PARTY STAKES -- GRADE II -- $250K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF)
7 -- FACTOR THIS
3 -- HEMBREE
2 -- SOME LIKE IT HOT BROWN
6 -- DOCTOR MOUNTY
RACE 7 -- DEFRANCIS MEMORIAL DASH -- GRADE III -- $200K -- SIX FURLONGS
5 -- LANDESKOG
4 -- LAKI
1 -- ADMIRAL LYNCH
8 -- NITROUS
RACE 8 -- LAUREL FUTURITY STAKES -- $150K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF)
8 -- HIDDEN ENEMY
1 -- PIVOTAL MISSION
4 -- KIDNAPPED
10 -- NAUTILUS
RACE 9 -- MURPHY STAKES -- $100K -- ONE MILE (TURF)
7 -- VANZZY
10 -- DON JUAN KITTEN
12 -- ANDESITE
13 -- BYE BYE MELVIN
RACE 10 -- BLACK EYED SUSAN -- GRADE III -- $250K -- 1-1/8TH MILE
5 -- BONNY SOUTH
7 -- MIZEN BEAU
9 -- MISS MARISSA
8 -- HOPEFUL GROWTH
RACE 11 -- THE PREAKNESS STAKES -- GRADE I -- $1 MILLION -- 1-3/16TH MILE
9 -- AUTHENTIC
3 -- ART COLLECTOR
4 -- SWISS SKYDIVER
8 -- MAX PLAYER
Good luck today and play 'em anyway you like!
A beautiful day for racing at Churchill Downs yesterday, but the results didn't turn out very well for my selections yesterday.
Out of the final four races (7-10) on the Saturday cards, I had 16 horses for you to consider. Out of those, I had one winner, two seconds and one third. That's a 25% "in the money' percentage and way below what I normally get. Filling four out of the 12 "payable" spots wasn't much better -- producing a 33% number.
I did hit the 7th. race -- an even money shot in Idol. After that, I did not have the 25-1 shot in Race 8, 6-1 horse in Race 9 nor the 9-2 runner in Race 10.
I guess a lot of "players" were in the same boat with me, the late Pick 4 paid $4686 on the .50 cent wager.
Next week, the Preakness. We'll give it the old college try then.
A very challenging card on this final Saturday in September for Churchill Downs. Two challenging (in terms of handicapping) maiden races, a deep optional claiming affair and the Grade III Ack Ack
RACE 7 -- MAIDEN 75K -- SEVEN FURLONGS
9 -- IDOL 2 -- LUCKY ASSET 4 -- TURNAGAIN TIDE 7 -- EMPERADOR
RACE 8 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMNG 80K -- 1 MILE
1-1A -- GOLD STANDARD/TALK VEUVE TO ME 4 -- TAKE CHARGE ANGEL 6 -- NEW ROO 9 -- GOODBYE EARL
RACE 9 -- ACK ACK STAKES -- GIII -- 100K -- 1 MILE
8 -- EBBEN 1 -- WARRIOR'S CHARGE 9 -- BANKIT 4 -- AMERICAN ANTHEM
RACE 10 -- MAIDEN 75K -- 1-1/8TH MILE (TURF)
4 -- LONGPANTS REQUIRED 5 -- FASHION MO 8 -- SAIL ON ELLEN 9 -- LEAAH CHASE
Good luck today and play 'em anyway you like!
A beautiful day for racing yesterday at Churchill Downs and, although I had some successes -- I failed to take down the Late Pick Four. I provided 16 horses for yo to consider, had a couple of scratches -- so 14 actually went to post.
Out of those, I had eight finish in the money....three winners, three seconds and two thirds. That was good for a 50% "in the money" percentage. When you consider there were 12 money spots available, and I filled eight of those, the percentage goes up to 66%
Race 7 featured my top pick, Lonely Private, getting the win. He was a 2-1 favorite. I also had the exacta (3-5) for $27.40 and the trifecta (3-5-7) for $165.60.
Race 8 was the low-light of the sequence for me. #1 Rockpaperscissors got out front and the rest couldn't run him down in the stretch .He was backed at 7-1 odds...I didn't have him. My second pick Rookery ran second....closing at the end but falling just short.
Race 9 belonged to my top pick Golden Curl and she won for fun on the turf at 5-2 odds. I also scored an exacta win here. I got $56.00 for the (2-7) running order. I nearly had the trifecta as well...#4 Siamese, who was sent out as the favorite lost a photo for show. That trifecta would have been sweet, it paid $481 for the (2-7-8).
Race 10 gave us another win, when my top pick It's A Wrap hit the wire first. A even-money winner. I also got a show in Rye Humor, but couldn't come up with the second place finisher (War Detonater).
The Late Pick 4 paid $207 for the ,50 wager.
We'll give it a go again next week.
It looks to be a great day for racing at Churchill today, with a fast track, firm turf and temperatures in the 70's.
No major stakes races in the late Pick 4, but a very challenging card. The types of races all vary -- a claiming, maiden special weight, allowance and maiden claimer.
RACE 7 -- CLAIMING -- 40K -- SEVEN FURLONGS
3 -- LONELY PRIVATE 7 -- HOMBRAZO 5 -- VICTORY BOULEVARD 4 -- HOP CAT
RACE 8 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- 75K -- ONE MILE
4 -- PATTY H 7 -- ROOKERY 3 -- GOOD PENNY 8 -- DOTTIE
RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE -- 77K -- ONE MILE (TURF)
2 -- GOLDEN CURL 7 -- TIPSY GAL 6 -- SAINT STATION 4 -- SIAMESE
RACE 10 -- MAIDEN CLAIMING -- 50K -- SIX AND ONE HALF FURLONGS
5 -- IT'S A WRAP 6 -- ON YOUR MARK 3 -- OAK ROOM 9 -- RYE HUMOR
If scratches occur, I'll try to get back in here and update.
Good luck and bet 'em however you like.
I had a good day on the turf yesterday at Kentucky Downs. I handicapped the final five races of the day, all stakes races, then didn't watch a single one of them until Sunday morning. (Football, you know.)
I hit the .50 cent Pick 5 and, in one of those pleasant rarities, I got paid twice on in. Since I wasn't watching, I didn't realize that one of my picks in Race 11 got scratched (Bound For Nowhere) so, I got the post time favorite, who won! I'll accept the $516 with no hesitation. The humor in it is that, if I had been watching, I'd substituted one of my alternate horses, who ran third, and got paid only once.
On the day, with scratches and such, I gave you 21 horses to consider in the five races. Out of those, I had five winners, three places and four shows. That's a not too shabby 57% " in the money" percentage. When you consider there were 15 "payable" spots to fill, I filled 12 of them for an impressive 80% success rate.
Race 7 ended with Regal Glory hitting the wire first. He was the favorite, favorites were hitting a lot in the final five races, and paid $4.80 to win with Jose Ortiz on board.
Race 8 was easily taken by Got Stormy. One of the best filly and mare turf sprinters running, she paid $5.80 to win and Tyler Gaffalione was on board. That 6-1/2 furlong time of 1:15:41 is very impressive.
Race 9 was a two-horse battle between Outadore and Fauci down the turf stretch and Outadore prevailed. You got $5.60 on the win here (as the second favorite) and Irad Ortiz, Jr. got the win in the saddle.
Race 10 featured a battle between Arklow and Zulu Alpha most of the stretch and Arklow pulled away for the win. You got a $13.60 payout for the win in Race 10 and Florent Geroux picked up the "W".
Race 11 was a battle, but, favorite Imprimis, nosed ahead in the final yards and got to the wire first. At 2-1, you got $8.00 for the win and Irad Ortiz, Jr got his second stakes win of the day and fourth win for the card.
The Pick 5 paid $258. If you went for the Pick 4, you were rewarded with $158 on the .50 venture.
We'll see ya next week!
The horses don't run there often, and everything is on the turf, but the money/purses are great, the jockey colony actually stronger than what was in for Derby Week at Churchill and the races, so very challenging.
I speak, of course, of Kentucky Downs. A track you look at, scratch your head and say..."is this really in Kentucky ?" (And, actually it's not too far from Tennessee but we wont get into that here...) European racing style.
There are five huge stakes races closing out the card today there (four of them Grade III) and almost $2 million dollars at stake, so let's look at them. There is rain predicted for that part of the state later today and the turf could go from firm to yielding or slow, so keep that in mind
RACE 7 -- KY.DOWNS LADIES TURF STAKES - G III - $200K -1 MILE
8 -- SECRET MESSAGE 6 -- REGAL GLORY 4 -- ENGLISH AFFAIR 3 -- TAP IT TODAY
if scratches occur: 7-- LADY APPLE, 1 -- MITCHELL ROAD
RACE 8 -- KY.DOWNS LADIES SPRINT - GIII-$200K - 6-1/2 F
8 -- GOT STORMY 9 -- INTO MYSTIC 7 -- CARIBA 11 -- KIMARI
if scratches occur: 5-- CHANGE OF CONTROL, 10-- JAKARTA
RACE 9 -- KY.DOWNS JUVENILE TURF -- $500K -- 6-1/2 F
10 -- FAUCI 9 -- OUTADORE 4 -- COUNTRY FINAL 6 -- BODENHEIMER
if scratches occur: 2-- PERFECT MISTAKE, 8 -- COWAN
RACE 10 -- KY TURF CUP -- GIII -- $450k -- 1-1/2 MILE
10 -- ZULU ALPHA 5 -- ARKLOW 2 -- RED KNIGHT 6 -- POSTULATION
if scratches occur: 7 -- HE'S NO LEMON, 12 -- HIERARCHY
RACE 11 -- RUNHAPPY TURF SPRINT - GIII- $700K -- 6 F
6 -- KANTHAKA 12 -- BOUND FOR NOWHERE 9 -- IMPRIMIS 2 -- STUBBINS
if scratches occur:10 -- RICHIESINTHEHOUSE, 14 -- FAST BOAT
Full fields, there is a .50 cent Pick 5 for the stakes races listed, so jump if you feel froggy, but -- as always, play 'em anyway you like.
A day of some successes at Churchill on a day where only one favorite won in 14 races. Derby Day, despite the lower attendance, sone excellent racing on the dirt and turf.
I handicapped all 14 races (yes, I'm still brain dead from that) and gave you 56 horses to consider. Out of those, I had nine winners, eleven places and eleven shows. That was good for a 55% "in the money" percentage. When you cpnsider there were 42 "payable" sports available...I filled 74% of them.
Seven exactas, and three trifectas -- plus three Pick 3's. So, I'll settle for that.
On the winners -- I got rewarded with a few nice payoffs. $18.60, $10, $11.60, $10.40 and $18.80.
On the exactas, playing a four-horse box for $1 ($12.00) x 14 times would have cost you $168. You would have gotten back $253.
To take the statistics to an even further level, let's say you put $2 across the board on all 56 horses. That would have cost you $336. You would have got back $303. A -$36 effort for the day.
I went the "rolling" Pick 3 route. At the .50 level, I had 12 wagers at $32 a wager for a total cost of $384. My return was $629. I'll take the $245 profit for the day.
I hope you had a good Derby. It seemed so different, not going to the annual party I've attended for the last 30+ years, at four different locations over the years-- (way too many people...traditionally... and no need to risk it with COVID out there) and just watched it with a few friends, grilled out and had a couple of "beverages". It was OK, but I missed seeing a lot of the "regulars". Hopefully, next year.
1 -- HOME BASE
5 -- HOG CREEK HUSTLE
2 -- SEVEN TRUMPETS
4 -- MIDNIGHT SANDS
1 -- THRILL RIDE
7 -- KADRI
4 -- PROUD VETERAN
5 -- IDOL
6 -- PIT BOSS
1 -- STORM KING
7 -- DYNACHARGE
2 -- FASTLY
11 -- RYE SENSE OF HUMOR
8 -- T MONEY
12 -- KING'S MISCHIEF
5 -- ESSENTIAL QUALITY
5 -- SPANISH KINGDOM
10 -- PARKLAND
8 -- ON A SPREE
1 -- MAJESTIC RO
6 -- COOL BOBBY
12 -- ALEX JOON
11 -- COWBOY'S REVENGE
2 -- SIR ALFRED JAMES
9 -- AURELIUS MAXIMUS
4 -- SIGNALMAN
10 -- BODEXPRESS
12 -- LOCALLY OWNED
5 -- SMOOTH LIKE STTRAIT
4 -- FIELD PASS
8 -- FANCY LIQUOR
1 -- TAISHAN
2 -- ECHOTOWN
6 -- TAP IT TO WIN
9 -- RUSHIE
4 -- VERTICAL THREAT
3 -- SUPER SHOT
8 -- MIDNIGHT BOURBON
7 -- PICO D'ORO
10 -- THERIDEOFALIFETIME
4 -- NEWSPAPEROFRECORD
7 -- LA SIGNARE
2 -- DADDY IS A LEGEND
3 -- JULIET FOXTROT
8 -- SERENGETI EMPRESS
10 -- CECE
9 -- BELLAFINA
4 -- BELL'S THE ONE
1 -- FACTOR THIS
9 -- SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN
3 -- ROCK EMPEROR
6 -- MR DUMAS
RACE 14 -- THE KENTUCKY DERBY
17 -- TIZTHELAW
18 -- AUTHENTIC
16 -- HONOR AP
8 -- SOUTH BEND
Note: If further scratches occur, I'll be back in to update and change the selections.
Bet 'em any way you like!
It was a great day of handicapping yesterday on the Oaks Day selections!
Out of the 13 races, I had 12 winners. Only the second race messed me up, when a 12-1 shot slipped by my choices to get the win
I handicapped all 13 races and gave you 52 horses to consider. Out of those I had 12 winners, 11 places and 10 shows. That's a 64% "in the money" percentage. Out of the 39 possible payout spots (win, place or show) I filled 33 of them for a sparkling 85% success rate. I had nine Pick 3's, three Pick 4's and hit the final 11 races. I also gave you 10 exactas and eight trifectas.
If you didn't make money yesterday on Paulie Picks, you have no one to blame but yourself.
BE sure to check back later today for my Derby picks!
1 -- SOVEREIGN APPEAL
4 -- SAINT STATION
7 -- NORMA JEAN B
5 -- FINANCIAL ONE
7 -- QUICK MUNNY
2 -- MALIBU BIRD
4 -- SIANARA
9 -- AMUSING ANTICS
2 -- JEWELED PRINCESS
3 -- SARA SEA
1 -- HIGH REGARD
4 -- POSITIVE SPIRIT
6 -- OCEAN BREEZE
3 -- MISS T TOO
1 -- SHE CAN'T SING
8 -- PALOMITA
11 -- HONORIFIQUE
1 -- FRONT STREET
8 -- TRAVEL COLUMN
6 -- PRINCESS LEA
5 -- HONEST MISCHIEF
8 -- STRIKE THAT
3 -- MUCHO
7 -- LASTING LEGACY
6 -- FLABBERGASTED
7 -- I HEAR YOU
9 -- ELLA BRILLA
8 -- SICILIA
1 -- MUNDAYE CALL
7 -- FOUR GRACES
5 -- SCONSIN
2 -- NEVER FORGET
3 -- SHARING
2 -- HENDY WOODS
1 -- IN GOOD SPIRITS
8 -- WALK IN MARRAKESH
2 -- MCKINZIE
8 -- BY MY STANDARDS
5 -- MR. FREEZE
1 -- SILVER DUST
8 -- MONOMOY GIRL
7 -- LADY KATE
1 -- HOROLOGIST
6 -- SHE'S A JULIE
RACE 12 == KENTUCKY OAKS
5 -- GAMINE
1 -- SWISS SKYDIVER
4 -- SPEECH
7 -- SHEDARESTHEDEVIL
4 -- BOUND FOR NOWHERE (SCR)
1 -- DIAMOND OOPS
13 -- TIGER BLOOD(SCR)
2 -- WELLABLED
10 -- CAROTARI
8 -- JUST MIGHT
14 -- CHIF CICATRIZ
Good luck today and play'em however you like!
It was a good day yesterday figuring out the final four races at Churchill Downs.
I gave you 20 horses to consider in Races 8-11, after adjustments for scratches. Out of those, I had fpur winners, four seconds and four thirds. That's a 60% "in the money" percentage and, more importantly, I fill all 12 of the "payable" spots in the four race sequence. I had the Pick 4, which returned a nice $648.55 on the .50 cent wager.
Race 8 had Crafty Lady surviving an objection to get the win, She beat the favorite and paid $9.80.
Race 9 had part of the entry, Rubus, hitting the wire first and we were handsomely rewarded with a $13.40 payout. Another favorite goes by the wayside...
Race 10, the Pocahontas Stakes, featured a stellar bunch of two-year-olds and it was Girl Daddy knocking off huge favoeite Crazy Beautiful to take the race. I got $8.60 on this one to win.
Race 11 brought another downing of a favorite when Iadanza turned back big favorite The Angry Man to close the card. $13.00 to win was the reward.
It's nice to go into Oaks on a hot streak. I'll have the full card for Oaks Day handicapped and here at the site later today.