She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"
Saturday, February 29, 2020
Today, the horse racing eyes turn again to Gulfstream and the road to the Kentucky Derby. On Fountain of Youth Day, the south Florida track offers some very good racing, culminating with the early test of three-year old hopefuls trying the Fountain of Youth.
The late Pick 4 is a challenging one, two on the turf, two on the dirt, and all at a mile or better. The top jockeys and trainers are in town and let's take a look at my picks, the selections are in numerical order.
RACE 11 -- 1 Mile (Turf) $150,000
1 - Hay Dakota
2 - Caribou Club
4 - Hembree
5 - Somebeyay
Thoughts. Although these four look to be the main contenders for the race, I'm going to go a little deeper here and also include #7 Mr. Dumas. I like the way that he's been training for this one. Hembree is better suited for this mile distance, he got his 2020 debut out of the way in the tampa Bay Stakes, where it was a little longer than he likes to run
RACE 12 -- 1 Mile (Dirt) $300,000
1 - Bodexpress
3 - Phat Man
4 - Forever Mo
9 - Mr. Freeze
Thoughts. I tossed in Forever Mo, as a longshot possibility, in a race that looks set up for a duel between Bodexpress and Phat Man. I still think "Bode" could have had a better Ky. Derby earlier this year, but he got checked on the turn. then, the Preakness, where he tossed Johnny V. at the gate. Today, I hope for clear sailing.
RACE 13 -- 1-3/8th Miles (Turf) $200,000
4 - Sadler's Joy
6 - Zulu Alpha
Thoughts. I see a two horse race here, maybe giving the nod to Zulu Alpha. His raill-skimming stretch run in the Pegasus World Cup was impressive, the thing is, can he win back-to-back races? He hasn't since last March, but those two were aat Gulfstream and he's there, aat the same distance, today. Sadler's Joy lost all chance with his break in the Pegasus World Cup. Although I'm not using him, #5 Channel Maker prefers a bit longer but has defeated these other two in the past and rarely runs poorly at Gulfstream. Your call on him, I'll pass.
RACE 14 -- THE FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH -- 1-1/16th Miles (Dirt) $400,000
5 - Dennis's Moment
6 - As Seen on TV
7 - Country Grammer
12 -Chance It
Thoughts. Is Dennis's Moment ready for this race? Many wonder if he's fit enough for it. I say he is. I'll also toss in #11 Ete Indian, who ran second last time out in the Holy Bull behind Tiz The Law, who isn't here today and is the current Derby favorite. I also like Country Grammer's chances...he broke his maiden at 1-1/8th miles at Aqueduct and looked to be ready to advance to stakes company. A lot of questions in this one...
.50 cent Pick 4
Good luck today on your wagering, play 'em anyway you like, and remember what I say...never put the mortgage on a mudder.
Saturday, February 22, 2020
A challenging, late Pick 4 sequence to consider in South Florida, so let's give it a whirl. A good jockey colony on hand, top trainers and two stakes races and two allowance races make up the four-race slate.
RACE 8 -- ALLOWANCE -- 7 FURLONGS -- DIRT
7 - SILVER RATIO
8 - VIOLENT CITY
2 - BAD LITTLE BEAST
3 - COST BASIS
(Note: These four look like the main contenders and I couldn't make an argument for any others, so we'll go with these.)
RACE 9 -- STAKES 100k -- 6 FURLONGS -- DIRT
2 - LASTING LEGACY
5 - JACKSON
4 - ADMIRAL LYNCH
1 - EPIC DREAMER
( Note: I do like longshot Jackson in here, the connections arre "right" but Lasting Legacy will be tough to beat, I tossed in the other two in case it "falls apart" in the stretch.)
RACE 10 -- ALLOWANCE -- 1 MILE -- TURF
10 - LARGENT
1 - AWARD WINNER
11- UNCLE MOJO
3 - PROLIFERATE
(Note: Toughest race of the sequence for me to handicap. A challenging turf mile. In addition to the four about, I do think Bourbon Winner has to merit some consideration, so I'll toss him in the fray as well)
RACE 11 -- STAKES -- 6 FURLONGS -- 6 FURLONGS -- DIRT
2 - SOUND MACHINE
5 - FRANK'S ROCKETTE
6 - STILL ALIVE
(Note: It's a two-hose race between Sound Machine and Frank's Rockette the way I see it. I did toss Still Alive in because of rider Lopez and his fondness of "getting out and going")
Good luck today an bet 'em however you want! Remember, never put the mortgage on a mudder!
Sunday, February 16, 2020
RISEN STAR RAISES BANKROLL
I've had a saying here at Paulie's Picks over the years, Sometimes you need to spend a little money to make a little money. That proved to be the case yesterday when I outlined a comprehensive but a bit expensive Pick 4. The $128 investment returned $1840.30 on a fifty cent Pick Four wheel. If you played it as a $2 wager, the cost would have been $512, but your return was $7,361.20.
On the day, I offered a total of 19 horses to consider for the sequence. I ended up playing 17 of them. Seven runners in race 10, three runners in race 11, four horses in race 12 and three horses in race 13. Out of the 17, I had four winners, three seconds and three thirds. That's a 59% "in the money number, and we filled 75% of the win, place and show pool for the sequence. No matter how you played the picks, you had success. I hit three exactas, two triectas, both Pick 3's and the Pick 4.
The winners paid $18.00, $7.40, $17.00 and $27.80. Exactas returned $18.80, $15.00 and $83.20. The trifectas awarded $73.20 and $287.00. The two Pick 3's in the four race sequence were worth $450.00 and $914.80.
It was a good day at Fairgrounds, no matter how you bet the picks.
Knocking off the favorites in each race boosted the pot. Off our "watch" list in the 10th, Factor Time wired the field at 8-1 odds. My top pick in the 11th, Finite, upset heavily favored British Idiom at 5-2 odds. Mr. Monomoy, another top pick for me, ran past Enforcable to win at 8-1 odds.in Race 12. In the 13th. race, Modernist, rode the rail like I surmised he would, and upset Anneau D'or at 13-1 odds.
I love days like this.
Obviously, I'm not going to guarantee you these kind of results each Saturday here. But, it's a nice start to the "Derby trail" handicapping. A friend, Curtis F., called me after the 13th. race ecstatic. He tried the two Pick 3's in the sequence, spent $112 on the first Pick 3 and $64 on the second pick 3...$1 wheels each, and cashed out for $682. He also dabbled in a few win wagers and cleared about $150 on those.
He highly recommends The Winners Circle off-track wagering facility, off Eastern Blvd., in Clarksville, IN. I haven't made the excursion there yet, but, others have told me it's a nice facility.
Wake up, Kentucky legislatures. You could do the same.
Saturday, February 15, 2020
Welcome back to Paulie Picks!
Fair Grounds is the place to be today, with the Risen Star for three-year olds split into two divisions, the Rachel Alexandra for 3 yr. old fillies taking place and a very challenging Grade III in Race 10 for four year olds and up.
Let's take a look at who Paulie picks in these four. There is a late Pick 4 available here, beginning in Race 10, so we'll try to hit it, as we shake off the dust on our handicapping skills and look at the racing in New Orleans today.
RACE 10 -- FAIRGROUNDS STAKES -- GRADE III -- (TURF) -- 1-1/8TH MILES
2 - SYNCHRONY
5 - DONTBLAMEROCKET
9 - CAPTIVATING
12 -MIDNIGHT TEA TIME
(Note: these are my top four picks, but it is a race I might go deeper in for the Pick 4. I'm also considering #4 - Factor This, #10 Space Mountain and #1 Wound Tight. The key here is to advance out of the first race, right? There are a couple of races upcoming where I feel we can "shorten up" the ticket.)
RACE 11 -- RACHEL ALEXANDRA -- GRADE II -- (DIRT) -- 1-1/16TH MILES
6 - BRITISH IDIOM
7 - FINITE
5 - TEMPERS RISING
3 - SWISS SKYDIVER
(Note: I will probably shorten the ticket here and go with my top three picks. #6 will get the money, #7 won the Silverbulletday and #5 was flying at the end from far back).
RACE 12 -- RISEN STAR -- GRADE II -- (DIRT) -- 1-1/8TH MILES
9 - MR MONOMOY
8 - ENFORCEABLE
2 -- SILVER STATE
11 - SCABBARD
(Note: I like these four, they ran 1,2,3 in the Lecomte at Fairgrounds and Mr. Monomoy may have been the best horse in the Lecomte, He finished third due to traffic trouble on the turn for home but still gained the lead and led until the final jumps. Enforceable won and looked good doing it. Silver State closed on the outside to nip Mr. Monomoy for place. Scabbard ran evenly for fourth. I'm not seeing any invaders coming in and knocking off any of these.)
RACE 13 -- RISEN STAR -- GRADE II -- (DIRT) -- 1-1/8TH MILES
8 - ANNEAU D 'OR
5 - LIAM'S LUCKY CHARM
1 - MODERNIST
12 - NY TRAFFIC
(Note: Anneau D 'Or barely missed in the Breeders Cup and in the Los Al Grade II Futurity. Here's an West Coast invader who makes sense here. Liam's Lucky Charm has developed a "bounce" pattern, winning 3 of his 5 races. He won last out at Tampa Bay, so, will he bounce here? I'll include him anyway. Modernist likes the tail, likes to run on the lead and play "come catch me". He has the rail but hasn't faced this level of competition yet. NY Traffic destroyed the field at Gulfstream last time out. He moves up in class but must be considered.)
Good luck today, play 'em anyway you want and don't spend the mortgage money on mudders.