She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"
Sunday, July 31, 2016
The Handicappers took on four very challenging races at Saratoga Saturday and had varied results. SCOTT HARRIS fared the best in the picking over ARCHIE KAREL...here's his totals:
SCOTT had nine of his 16 horses hit the board. The best possible would have been twelve....so his 75% success rate and 56% overall is pretty impressive for such a tough card. He had three winners, three come in second and also three third place horses. For good measure, he also gave us three exactas and a trifecta in his picks. We score him out with 26 points on the day.
Putting $2 across the board on all sixteen of his picks would have cost $96. You would have been paid $85.60. His exactas and trifecta returned a total of $155.45...based on a one dollar wagering format. You would have spent $144...so that's a profitable venture.
ARCHIE had a rough go of it Saturday. Only five of his sixteen horses brought back money. 31%. One winner, two places and two shows for Archie. No exactas or trifectas. We score him out with 9 points on the day.
Archie's $96 investments in the win, place and show bets would have returned $37.30. Betting exactas and trifectas would have been a bad idea with Archie's selections. He didn't hit any.
PAULIE was having success with Scott's selections but going for the" deep sea fish" in chasing a couple of pick threes, pick fours and a pick six, he only hit a pick three and it barely covered the cost to bet it. Not a stellar day. Pretty much the same for the rest of the I'll Have Another gang.
I've been asked to update the overall points standing for the guys. Scott has 226 points after nine weeks. Archie has 180 points over those same nine weeks.
In all fairness, the 10th race at Saratoga Saturday was a unforeseen longshot fest. The winner paid $56. Our guys could do no better than third in their picks for that race.
We'll see how they do in the Haskell today.
You can hear the replay of the Saturday broadcast at the link below:
Saturday, July 30, 2016
The Handicappers head back to Saratoga to dissect and offer their selections for four races on a Saturday card that looks really challenging. They've also looked at Sunday's Haskell Invitational at Monmouth.
RACE 4 -- 6 1/2 Furlongs. AMSTERDAM G2 $200,000
(7) KING KRANZ is Scott's top pick here. He's looked good the last two times out on a wet surface and the value goes up here if Saratoga is sloppy. (2) MANIACAL could provide a challenge in the stretch (8) MIND YOUR BISCUITS was impressive in destroying allowance company last time out. (6) UNCLE VINNY scratched yesterday to run in this one, sheds the blinkers and gets hot jock Irad Ortiz, Jr. on his back.
SELECTIONS -- 7-2-8-6
RACE 8 -- 1 3/16 Mile. Allowance $85,000 TURF
(5) RAY'S THE BAR has had some tough luck in the past but looks solid today against these. (1) CAPTAIN MOSS will have a big price under him and jockey Manual Franco excels in situations like this. (3) IDIOSYNCRATIC should be flying down the lane. (4) MUHAAWER broke his maiden in impressive fashion and rates a chance.
SELECTIONS -- 5-1-3-4
RACE 9 -- 6 Furlongs. AG VANDERBILT HANDICAP G1 $350,000
(3) DELTA BLUESMAN has won four in a row, including a Grade 2. Come catch him if you can. (7) REQUITE will try and gets top jock Javier Castellano. (4) A.P. INDIAN will offer an attractive price and track the pace hoping to fire late. (5) HOLY BOSS could turn the table if the speed burns out.
SELECTIONS -- 3-7-4-5
RACE 10 -- 1 1/8 Mile. JIM DANDY G2 $600,000
(4) DESTIN returns to the track after a rest since the Belmont Stakes and will try to keep his nose ahead of Creator this time. (1) CREATOR was so impressive in the Belmont Stakes, Irad Ortiz, Jr. returns to ride. Is the distance too short for his magical kick? (5) GOVERNOR MALIBU faces his biggest test, will a clean trip give him the win at what's sure to be a nice price? (3) MOHAYMEN could pick up a minor share.
SELECTIONS -- 4-1-5-3
SUNDAY'S HASKELL. SCOTT LIKES GUN RUNNER, NYQUIST, AMERICAN FREEDOM and SUNNY RIDGE
ARCHIE KAREL has been busy crunching the numbers and the stats as well. His picks.
RACE 4 -- (2) MANIACAL (4) READY DANCER (5) ITS ALL RELEVANT (7) KING KRANZ
RACE 8 -- (4) MUHAAWER (5) RAY'S THE BAR (6) CIRCUS PERFORMER (9) BINGO KITTEN
RACE 9 -- (1) ANCHOR DOWN (3) DELTA BLUESMAN (5) HOLY BOSS (7) REQUITE
RACE 10 -- (1) CREATOR (4) DESTIN (3) MOHAYMEN (5) GOVERNOR MALIBU
SUNDAY'S HASKELL: AMERICAN FREEDOM, NYQUIST, EXAGGERATOR, GUN RUNNER
YOU CAN HEAR the broadcast today at noon on WCHQ 100.9 FM in Louisville and also on-line at Crescent Hill Radio. LINK below:
Sunday, July 24, 2016
The Handicappers gave it a great effort yesterday trying to predict four very challenging Saratoga races. Let's see how they did!
SCOTT gave us 16 horses that he thought had a chance to hit the board. Out of those, there was a scratch...so with 15 chances, he had six pay out. 40% for him. Three of his picks won, two got second and one finished third. He also hit an exacta. He nearly had a second (and potentially huge) exacta that went through a injury/objection review in race 10...where a horse that should have been taken down wasn't. He finished with 16 points based on our grading scale. Putting $2 on each of the fifteen horses across the board would have cost $90. The return was $82.50.
ARCHIE has stats that are almost identical to Scott's. He, too, gave us 15 horses to consider. Six of them paid off. Three winners, two seconds and a third. 40% for him. He also had an exacta in his picks. Give Archie 16 points also. Putting $2 across the board on his picks would have cost $90. Your return would have been $87.60.
Archie also gave us a race at DelMar. The SAN CLEMENTE Handicap. He gave us a winner that went off at 7-1 odds! Out of his four horses to watch...he had a winner, third place and fourth place.
(I'll point out that I was also big on this 7-1 winner MOKAT at DelMar in the SAN CLEMENTE. It was my favorite and top pick. Ol' Paulie can pick 'em too...)
Here's a link to hear the rebroadcast:
Saturday, July 23, 2016
The Handicapping Heroes take us to Saratoga and DelMar today for their selections.
SCOTT HARRIS starts us off with the selections at Saratoga.
RACE 2 --1 1/16th. MSW. 2 year olds
Scott has (1) MASTER MERION has his top pick. He sees (8) KEYNESIAN getting on the board and (7) OUR STORMIN NORMAN in contention for the trifecta. (6) ONE OF A KIND could pick up the pieces for his superfecta
RACE 6 -- 5 1/2 furlongs. MSW. 2 year olds
Top choice here is (8) ONE LINER who is a first timer for Todd Pletcher and gets Johnny V on board. (7) ROYAL COPY could upset at a price. (1) CONQUEST REFORMO will be in the thick of it and (6) FORGE is an impressive first timer with solid works. Chad Brown and Javier Castellano team up.
RACE 7 -- 1 1/16th. Opt. Claiming (Turf) 3 year olds and up
A definite longshot in (5) HOTHERSAL is the choice here. (2) INORDINATE will be in the thick of it. (8) ASCEND is just as good as any of these. (9) ADIRONDACK DANCER rates a shot
RACE 10 -- 1 1/8th. THE DIANA GRADE 1 (Turf)
(2) MISS TEMPLE CITY is still on the rise and shows no signs of slowing fown. The pick. (6) DACITA can't be ignored with Irad Ortiz, Jr in the stirrups. (9) RAINHA DA BATERIA could surprise all ten runners at a huge price. (4) WEKEELA should be flying at the end.
ARCHIE KAREL GIVES YOU THESE
Race 2 1-2-6-7
Race 6 6-1-8
Race 7 2-8-9
Race 10 2-7-1-10-4
His bonus race in the San Clemente at Del Mar. He likes (10) STAYS IN VEGAS (9) MOKAT (1) BELVOIR BAY (3) BE MINE
Good luck to our handicappers today!
LINK TO TODAY'S REBROADCAST:
HANDICAPPING HEROES July 23rd
Saturday, July 16, 2016
The Handicappers had a great deal of success in the Indiana Derby races they handicapped. Unfortunately, they couldn't pick the prices they wanted to get paid...but the effort was very good!
Let's see how they did.
SCOTT gave us 16 horses to consider and 10 hit the board for payoffs. He had four winners, four places and two shows. That's a sizzling 62%. He also had four exactas and a trifecta in his picks.
Based on our point system ( 3 for a win, 2 for a second, 1 for a third, 3 for a trifecta and 2 for an exacta) he ended up with 38 points. Not bad work at all. If you had bet each of his selections with a $2 across the board, you would have spent $96 dollars. Your return would have been $80.50. Once again, we can pick the winners but we can't control the odds.
His $1 exactas and $1 trifectas paid back a total of $112.60 and would have cost $144. He also had the late pick 4...which paid $41.05 on a 50 cent wager.
ARCHIE gave out 14 horses he liked and out of those 6 finished in the money. He had four winner also and a place and show. One exacta for him also. He ended up with 17 points. He also predicted the late pick four. Of an interesting note...he ran first, third and fourth in the final race...narrowly missing a superfecta.
PAULIE also had success in his picks...hitting the late PK 4 as well and a couple of exactas and a trifecta. His big success came very early on the day of racing at Indiana...spending a mere $20 on the early pick three resulted in a payout of $176 !!
On a day where the favorites or "chalks" filled the blackboard of results, the guys had some greats picks but the payoffs just were not there. Hey, it's better than losing it all and just goes to show that these guys know their horses!
We'll see you next week and make sure to catch the rebroadcast of HANDICAPPING HEROES at this link... handicapping heroes 7/16/16
Today our Handicapping Heroes head over the I-65 bridge and set a course to Shelbyville, IN to dissect the INDIANA DERBY card at Indiana Grand Racetrack. Four very good stakes races await them tonight, a tough challenge for SCOTT HARRIS and ARCHIE KAREL.
(Today's rebroadcast can be heard at):
SCOTT sees them like this:
RACE 6 - THE MARY HULMAN GEORGE. A MILE AND SIXTEENTH. $100,000
(7) BROOKLYNSWAY is his top choice. She's been consistant for Robbie Albarado and Bernie Flint when the two team up and they're together again this evening.. (1) LADY FOG HORN has won five out of her last six at Indiana Grand under Albin Jiminez and gets him on board tonight. (2) CONQUEST CURLGIRL won two out of three at the Churchill meet and Julian Leparoux returns for Mark Casse as the rider. (5) PANGBURN has a clsoing styl that fits this track and Luis Saez comes in to ride for new trainer William Van Meter.
SCOTT'S SELECTIONS -- 7-1-2-5
RACE 7 - MICHAEL G. SCHAEFER MEMORIAL. A MILE AND SEVENTY. $100,000
(5) ROCKET TIME has had success at several different tracks this spring and hot jock Corey Lanerie gets the assignment from Al Stall. (8) GEOTHERMAL has been kncking at the door...could tonight be the night? Robby Albarado stays in the saddle for Steve Margolis. (9) BIG CHANGES has won his last three at Churchill and Oaklawn...out of the hot Brad Cox barn. (1) GENERAL A ROD won in closing fashion at Churchill last time out and is a recent transfer to Michael Maker's stable.
SCOTT'S SELECTIONS -- 5-8-9-1
RACE 8 - THE INDIANA OAKS. A MILE AND SIXTEENTH. $200,000
(7) FAMILY TREE will draw the bettor's interest and Julian Leparoux climbs on for Wayne Catalano. No worse than third in her last six attempts. (3) MINES AND MAGIC could surprise at a big price...she was 2 for 2 at Churchill and Robby Albarado returns as rider. (1) DREAM DANCE is the class of these fillies Brian Hernandez Jr. rides and knows her well. (6) EMMZY invades from California for this race. Won her last two at Santa Anita and Rafael Bejarano rides for Bob Baffert.
SCOTT'S SELECTIONS -- 7-3-1-6
RACE 9 - THE INDIANA DERBY. A MILE AND SIXTEENTH. $500,000
(5) THE PLAYER looked good winning his last two at Churchill and will pay his backers well if he continues the streak. (11) CUPID is another Baffert shipper with Bejarano...this hard-knocker will try to take them wire to wire? (7) SEEKING BLAME broke his maiden in impressive fashion at Churchill...is he ready for this big a jump in competition? (2) CHERRY WINE chased Exaggerator in the Preakness and Creator in the Belmont. He should enjoy today's slightly easier competition and distance.
SCOTT'S SELECTONS -- 5-11-7-2
ARCHIE gives us the same four races...he counters with
(1) LADY FOG HORN on top...(2) CONQUEST CURLGIRL a definite contender and he's seeing prohibitive favorite (7) BROOKLYNSWAY to round out the trifecta.
ARCHIE'S PICKS -- 1-2-7
(1) GENERAL A ROD should love the stretch at Indiana Grand and is his top pick. (3) DEPARTING gets Brian Hernandez, Jr. and is at his best around two turns. (9) BIG CHANGES could shock these at a very generous price and has won his last three. (8) GEOTHERMAL has been knocking at the door for Steve Margolis and deserves a close look today. (4) ACES HIGH is another Steve Margolis horse that should benefit from the short stretch...how he handles two turns remains to be seen?
ARCHIE'S PICKS -- 1-3-9-8-4
Archie narrows it down to three horses again in this race...(6) EMMZY invades from Santa Anita and is here for a reason. Bob Baffert and Rafael Bejarano add to the appeal. (7) FAMILY TREE is consistantly in the top two when she runs and should be again today. She won the Iowa Oaks. (2) DOTHRAKI QUEEN could produce a huge payout if she can regain last summer's form. A return to the dirt from the turf is a positive indicator.
ARCHIE'S PICKS -- 6-7-2
(11) CUPID also ships in from California for Baffert and gets Archie's checkmark as the top one here. (2) CHERRY WINE has been facing better than these and should be battling for the win at the wire. (8) WHATEVERYBODYWANTS comes in after an impressive Prairie Mile win and the added two furlongs should not be a problem for this closer, Robbie Albarado and Kellyn Gorder. (12) STAR HILL likes to come from just off the pace and close strongly...the outside post improves his chances to do that today.
ARCHIE'S PICKS 11-2-8-12
DID YOU MISS TODAY'S BROADCAST? WELL, WORRY NOT! IT'S AVAILABLE AT THE LINK BELOW!
handicapping heroes 7/16/16
Sunday, July 10, 2016
The Handicappers tried a couple of different tracks yesterday...ARCHIE heading to New York and Belmont and SCOTT taking on Chicago's Arlington Park. Let's see how they did.
ARCHIE played the last four stakes races and gave us a total of 14 horses that he thought were contenders to "hit the board'. Out of those, seven did so...he had two winners, two second places and three third place finishers. That's 50%...not bad for such competitive races he tackled. He also gave us one exacta. He finished with 19 points...based on our scale of (3) points for a win, (2) points for a place, (1) point for a show and (2) points for an exacta and (3) for a trifecta.
If you had put $2 to win, place and show on each of his selections...you would have spent $90 dollars. Your return would have been $60.20...a bit of a slide from his recent successes.
SCOTT selected four stakes races at the Arlington oval and offered 16 horses to consider. Out of those, eight hit the board...he had three winners, two seconds and three third place finishers. He scored 50%...nice work for such a tough card! He finished with 25 points and also gave out three exactas and a trifecta.
If one had wagered $2 to win, place and show on all 16 picks...the cost would have been $96. Your return added up to $92...almost breaking even for the selections.
|ARCH, ME and our consortium stumbled but got a thrill|
PAULIE took the Pick 3 and Pick 4 route on the handicappers selections. Although he did not hit any of these at either track...he also opted to play the Kentucky track currently offering horse-racing (ELLIS PARK) and had a big day there...concentrating on hot jockeys Didiel Osorio and "Jersey" Joe Rocco. Rocco had three wins and two seconds and Osorio came in second six times...they also combined for three exactas...paying over $120 on those exotics.
REPLAY FOR SATURDAY'S SHOW LINK:
Saturday, July 9, 2016
STAKES RACES AT BELMONT AND ARLINGTON TODAY!
Although the live racing at Churchill Downs is taking a two-month break, fear not...Scott Harris and Archie Karel haven't put away their pens and racing forms. Today they break down the Saturday stakes races in Chicago (Arlington) and New York (Belmont) Eight great races...what do the guys say?
SCOTT is in Chicago watching the stakes races at Arlington. Here's his analysis:
RACE 4 -- The Modesty Handicap
Scott likes (3) Faufiler on top here...leading rider Jose Valvidia gets the ride for Graham Motion's turf monster. He also likes (2) Al's Gal, (6) Marypop and (1) Sequiota to contend for the money.
RACE 6 -- The Stars and Stripes
(6) The Pizza Man will attract most of the win wagering and Scott puts him on top. (9) Bullards Alley features Churchill owner Faron McCubbins and can't be ignored. (4) O'Prado Ole comes in off two successes at Churchill and (10) Roman Approval is out of the Michael Maker barn with Corey Lanerie on board.
RACE 7 -- The Arlington Handicap
A very challenging run on the turf! Scott sees (6) Go AROUND leading the way with (12) MESSI having a chance to surprise at a price. (9) Kasaqui loves this distance and (1) Pyjama Party will be flying late.
RACE 8 -- The American Derby
(11) JR's Holiday has a closing style that Scott sees as the winning tactic today. (1) Oscar Nominated ran in the Kentucky Derby and Michael Maker puts Corey Lanerie in the saddle today. (5) Tequila Joe is another that will be flying at the end and could surprise.
ARCHIE has put time in handicapping the extraordinary late Pick 4 at Belmont and offers these:
RACE 8 -- Belmont Derby
(7) Long Island Sound is Archie's top pick...excellent Irish runner who could blow these away. (11) AQUAPHOBIA is his "price" horse in here (9) Beach Patrol is another that could produce big money and gets Javier Castellano's services. Veteran (8) AIROFORCE can't be ruled out with Julian Leparoux in the saddle.
RACE 9 -- The Suburban
(2) Mubtaahij or (5) Effinex....Archie loves both of these and is also going back with hard-luck (4) Eagle to get a piece of the pool. (1) Noble Bird could get out on top and play "come catch me" today.
RACE 10 -- Belmont Oaks Invitational
Archie goes outside with the stellar (12) Catch A Glimpse on top....undefeated on the turf. (4) Time and Motion will stalk the leaders and try to swoop in the stretch. (6) Harmonize adds blinkers today and that might move her up. (8) Auntie Joy is due for a big run and supreme turf rider Brian Hernandez, Jr. gets the ride. Respect.
RACE 11 -- Belmont Sprint
They go to the dirt for the final...(2) Private Zone wins easily if he he gets a good trip...Martin Pedroza rides and knows this one quite well. (1) Anchor Down will challenge with Jose Ortiz on board. (9) Marking will vye for a piece of the pie and (8) Ready for Rye has a stalking style that could make him dangerous if the pace is too swift.
GOOD LUCK TODAY!
HEAR THE ARCHIVED REBROADCAST AT:
LINK: HANDICAPPING HEROES 7/9/16 BROADCAST
Monday, July 4, 2016
Sunday, July 3, 2016
The Handicappers gave it their best try Saturday night on four races at Churchill Downs but fell just a little short of profitability on the final evening of the Spring meet.
Both Scott Harris and Archie Karel handicapped races 8-11 on the card. Let's see how they did!
SCOTT HARRIS offered us 16 horses over the four race sequence and got seven of those "on the board". He had one winner, three seconds and three shows...plus an exacta pick. In our point scale (3 pts. for a win, 2 for a place, 1 for a show and 2 for an exacta) he finished with 14 points.
Putting $2 across the board on all sixteen of his picks would have cost $96 and returned you $58.60.
He and I were also involved in the mandatory payout sequence of the Pick Six at Churchill along with a few members of the "I'll Have Another Gang". I'd like to tell you we took down the $39,000 plus payout for 6 of 6...but we took a tough beat in the second leg, where we ran second, third and fourth. We thought the winner might get disqualified...hoping so, since we didn't have him...but a lengthy steward's review kept him on top.
ARCHIE KAREL handicapped the same four races and offered 16 horses to consider. He also had seven of them provide a payout...Arch had two winners, four seconds and one third. He also gave us two exactas...he ends up with 19 points for the evening.
The $96 invested in his picks returned $79.80...so he didn't return a profit either...but did a little better financially than Scott.
Archie also handicapped the seventh race. We're not including it in his totals...he provided three horses and they ran second and third and "also ran".
Archie made up ground in the overall points battle...narrowing the gap to 119-121...Scott with the two point lead.
Although the meet has ended at Churchill, HANDICAPPING HEROES is far from finished. We'll be looking at the best races in the country each week for the Saturday cards...and we'll be looking at the featured Saturday race at ELLIS PARK each week as well.
PAULIE doesn't participate in the points battle with the boys...just adding a horse or two on their picks. Saturday night turned out well for him, though...hitting the middle pick 4 for $497 on a $48 ticket. That and a couple of early exactas made it a good day for the third day in a row. Hating to see the meet end after catching on fire at the end.
We are working on a few things...creating a header for the site is one of them. Another is getting your input on the site and radio show. How are you doing at the tracks if you are playing the races? Are you a new handicapper and have we helped you?
Feel free to send your comments to me at firstname.lastname@example.org
THE REBROADCAST CAN BE HEARD AT:
HANDICAPPING HEROES 7/2/16
Friday, July 1, 2016
ANOTHER SCORE FOR THE" I'LL HAVE ANOTHER GANG"!
After Thursday Pick 4 triumph at Gulfstream, we figured we had no chance at taking down the Pick 4 at Churchill on Friday. But ,we gave it a try, anyway...and SPANKY, BILLY, SCOTT and PAULIE hit again!
We started it out with four horses in the 1st leg (5th race) and INCOMING (#5) got it done for us a 5-1 morning line odds. Up next was the 6th race...we were four "deep" here and #1 CONRAD found the wire for us at 5-1 odds.
We figured the luck couldn't last...but we had four horses that we thought rated a chance in the seventh and HUNDRED YEARS (#6) gave us a big stretch run and beat the favorite. WE were halfway through the Pick 6 and had three horses in the 8th race. SPANKY insisted on the #5 WEST VILLAGE and he got to the wire first...a 4-1 morning selection.
We were solidly aligned on two horses in the ninth race...DEAR ELAINE and CONQUEST CURLGIRL. Dear Elaine led for six furlongs but got tired after a wicked pace and Conquest Cowgirl passed her easily to get the win at 2-1 odds. Spanky and the gang couldn't believe it. We were 5 for 5 and had three horses in the final race.
We argued a bit on this race when we handicapped it...I fought to keep the #10 PLACE DES VOGUES in and it paid off...this hard knocker winning the race by five furlongs.
$4467 back on a ticket that cost us $128.
Incredible. I'm still in shock.
* * * *
SCOTT'S PICK FOR CHURCHILL
RACE 8 -- THE DEBUTANTE ($100,000) 6 Furlongs
Scott likes (10) CHINA GROVE on top and the filly should handle the track well after coming in second in the Astoria. He sees (9) LIKE A HURRICANE for second...followed by (4) COUNTRY CANDY and (5) TRICKY ONE. Also keep an eye on (2) ANNA'S BANDIT, who might run well at a good price.
RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE ( $55,000) 1-1/16th mile
A tough race, indeed. Scott sees (7) WALKING THE KITTEN getting the score for Florent Geroux and Michael Maker. (6) SMART SHOPPING could be a price with Robby Albarado on board. (2) READY FOR CHIANTI gets Julian Leparoux and must be respected. (4) HAVANA DREAM could round out a nice superfecta. A couple others of merit (3) NALINS KITTY and (12) DORODANSA could climb into the money...a very challenging race!
RACE 10 -- KELLY's LANDING STAKES ($67,000) 7 Furlongs
(7) ALSVID has 14 career wins and three of them at Churchill. He's the one to beat. (3) HELOOKSTHEPART is Scott's price horse and (6) WABEL and (4) SCHIVARELLI round out his selections
RACE 11 -- STARTER ALLOWANCE ($22,000) 7 furlongs
The final race of the Spring meet is a good test for these 4 year olds and Scott sees (7) PADEN hitting the wire first. (3) BOB'S GONE WILD gets Ricardo Santana back on board for hot trainer Chris Hartman and shouldn't be ignored. (4) BAD STUDENT rates a chance with Julian Leparoux despite the move up in class and (8) CONDESTABLE has been first, second and third in his three starts at Churchill this spring -- a contender.
We have ARCHIE'S PICKS also!
(TAKE A LOOK AT WHERE HE HAD TO HANDICAP FROM...POOR CHILD! )
RACE 7 -- BASHFORD MANOR STAKES ($100,000) 6 furlongs
This 2 year-old spring is quite competitive. Archie gives us (3) TIP TAP TAPIZAR on top, with (5) RIV in there with a shot and (9) RECRUITING READY and the legendary Edgar Prado on board as his top three.
It's "bombs away" time for the Arch...putting (2) ANNA'S BANDIT in the winner's circle over (10) CHINA GROVE. (6) PRETTY CITY GROVE is getting a long, hard look from Arch also and (5) TRICKY ONE can't be ruled out.
Archie agrees with Scott. Gotta beat (6) WALKING THE KITTEN. He sees (5) SMART SHOPPING, (11) MOONLIGHT SKY and (3) HAVANA DREAM as the main contenders to do so,
(6) WABEL is his pick to beat this small but talented field. He wouldn't be surprised by (7) ALSVID going to the winner's circle. (3) HELOOKSTHE PART and (4) SCHIVARELLI round out his top four.
Both he and Scott think (7) PADEN will capture the final race of the evening. (4) BAD STUDENT is a contender, (3) BOB'S GONE WILD just might...and (8) CONDESTABLE could be in the money.
Did you miss the broadcast? Well,no worries! Listen to the rebroadcast at the link below!
LINK: HANDICAPPING HEROES 7-2-2016
WE features handicappers Archie Karel and Scott Harris on our weekly radio show HANDICAPPING HEROES but the "I'll Have Another" gang...a loosely associated group of 3-4 other Churchill regulars often combines with me, Arch and Scott to do wagers at Churchill. Yesterday, the boys came through in fine fashion...taking down the Gulfstream Pick 6 and its mandatory payout.
Involved in the triumph were Charlie, Spanky and yours truly...Paulie. We convened about a half-hour before the start of the Pick 6...which was race 5. Our handicapping in place, we were disappointed to find out that two of our "single" picks...in races 6 and 10 had been scratched. So, it was back to the drawing board for those two races.
Anytime you construct a ticket like a Pick 6...or even a Pick 4 or 3...there is a little "give and take" on the selections before the final ticket is bet. Our first attempt at building the ticket ended up in a selection roster that would have cost us a little over $80 each. Feeling that was a bit too high...we went into the elimination process, race by race, to pare that total down a bit. Finally, with just a few minutes before post, we had reduced the ticket to where we were at a total wager amount of $38 each and I headed to the window to bet it.
Below is a picture of what we were working off of. Yeah, first class all the way for this bunch...
With napkin in hand, I took the $115 dollars to the teller and got the bet down. When I returned to the table, Spanky looked at me and wryly commented...
"This may be one of the most moronic things we've done lately." I chuckled and repeated our creed:
"Morons R Us."
The fifth race got underway and we had four horses in the leg, We got a break when the odds-on favor got caught in the stretch and the #1 horse, CALLING ME HOME zipped by to win. A nice price, at 5-1. We were one race in. The sixth race was a scramble for us, since the one we all figured would win...CARIBOU CAT, had scratched. Still, we had three horses in the sprint...and #2 PIONEER PETE came home for us at 6-1. We were 1/3 of the way there...and had two pretty good prices in each of our wins.
In the seventh race, we had a hard paring the selections down and ended up with four horses. We almost tossed Charlie's selection, the #4 horse HEARTBREAKER GIRL out...but decided to take a chance with her on the "drop" and it was a wise choice...she held on in the stretch and won at 6-1 odds. Going to the eighth race, we were a bit nervous thaat we have left the betting favorite out of our three horse selection...but a strong ride by Lionel Reyes on 3-1 ANA'S PRIDE magically got us to the winner's circle again.
Two races to go and we were getting a bit nervous. We only had two horses in each of the final two races...but felt very confident that either the odds-on favorite in the ninth FLASH JAK or second choice Jill's Comprise could get it done. What a nail-biter! TWINKLING TIME jumped out to the early lead and looked unbeatable as they set down for the stretch. But the #2...FLASH JAK...took after him, caught him with a few yards to go and won by a long neck.
We were 5-5 and the final race loomed. Once again, by post time, we had the two favorites when they broke from the gate. Both #6 DREAMING OF EVA and #10 FIRST SALUTE laid off the pace in the early fractions of the five furlong race. It looked like Dreaming of Eva was poised to make a big move in the stretch but got checked sharply and fell back. We looked desperately for the #10 FIRST SALUTE and Jesus Rios had him coming on the outside. He charged to the lead and held on for the win!
We had just hit the Pick 6 and were going nuts in Churchill's GOLD ROOM.
A couple of exciting minutes went by before we saw the payout. We had guessed maybe $1500, possibly $2000. When the board flashed $3234.24 we were stunned.
Goes to show that even a group of blind squirrels can find a nut at times and our "moronic effort" had pocketed each of us a little over $1000.