KEENELAND RESULTS -- 10/30/21

 A wet, sloppy day to end the Keeneland Fall meet, and a day where favorites reigned supreme in the final four races of the day. I gave you 16 horses to consider, after scratches, and 11 of them hit the board for a 68% "in the money" percentage. Out of the 12 "payable" spots available in Races 7-10, I filled 11 for a 92% success rate. 

Let's look at it:

RACE 7 -- NAKATOMI (2-1) roared down the stretch to pass tiring horses and took the win as the co-favorite. .Meet leading rider Tyler Gaffalione got the win for trainer Wesley Ward. I also had MY PRANKSTER for second and CHATTALOT for third. 

RACE 8 -- CAMP HOPE proved best in the Bryan Station at 5-2 and got a rousing ride from Brian Herandez Jr. for trainer Kelly McPeek. LIKE THE KING ended up second and YES THIS TIME managed third. I gave you all three in my selections. 

RACE 9 -- INDEPENDENCE HALL surprised a few in knocking off CODE OF HONOR in the Fayette Stakes att 7/2 odds. Javier Castellano did the piloting for Michael McCarthy. I had both of them, as well as third place finisher KING FURY/

RACE 10 -- FAMED (2/5) toyed with them until the stretch in the seven furlong final and then blew them away. Florent Geroux on the ride for meet training leader Brad Cox. Sired by Uncle Mo, this two year old filly is one you want to watch next year! Impressive. I also had CATWINGS, who barely got up for third. 

The Pick 4 paid a very low $41 on a .50 wager. I spent $64 on it. I'll say it again, I'm glad the ponies are leaving Keeneland and headed back to Churchill, in terms of my handicapping success. By my figuring, I lost about $150 up there during the meet. I'm still "up" on the year, but, Keeneland was tricky to figure out, until yesterday  

Next Friday and Saturday bring in Breeders Cup Weekend. I don't normally play west coast tracks, but with the wealth of excellent horse that always show up for this big weekend, I'll give it a "go" on Friday and Saturday and try Santa Anita with my selections. 

Be sure to check back. 

paulie 

KEENELAND PICKS -- 10/30/21

 A rainy Saturday on tap for closing weekend at Keeneland for the Fall Meet.  With three stakes, three on the dirt and a turf race that I'll be surprised if it stays on the grass -- a good card to close it out up in Lexington. 

Scratches today? Yeah, I expect there will be. I'll try to jump in and update here as best I can later today. I've also gone a little deeper in my "if scratches occur" horse selections. 

It has not been a great Keeneland  Fall Meet for me, in terms of handicapping and picking winners. And, Keeneland is a tough track to "get a handle on".  They're bringing in the best trainers, best horses and best jockeys -- but, as we know, the best looking on paper and form don't always get their photo taken in the winners' circle. 

Nevertheless, we'll give it a go today and see if we can end our Keeneland pursuits on a positive note. Fingers crossed, rabbit's foot and lucky horseshoe by my side...

( SCRATCHES UPDATED AT 12:17 TODAY)

RACE 7 -- BOWMAN MILLS STAKES -- $150K -- SIX FURLONGS

7 -- MY PRANKSTER

6 -- FREELANCER

4 -- NAKATOMI 

2 -- CHATTALOT 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  1-- ROGER MCQUEEN (scratched) , 5 -- LUCKY SHOT)

RACE 8 -- BRYAN STATION STAKES -- $150K --  ONE MILE (TURF) 

10 -- YES THIS TIME

12 -- DREAMER'S DISEASE

11 -- CAMP HOPE

4 -- PERFECT SILENT CAT  (scratched) 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  6 -- LIKE THE KING, 7 -- POINT ME BY) 

RACE 9 -- FAYETTE STAKES -- GII -- $200K -- 1-18TH MILE

7 -- CODE OF HONOR

1 -- SLEEPY EYED TODD  (scratched) 

4 -- NIGHT OPS

5 -- INDEPENDENCE HALL 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  6 -- KING FURY, 9 -- MAJOR FED) 

RACE 10 -- MAIDEN -- 84K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

1 -- FAMED

8 -- GUN SLINGER

9 -- HALO OF FIRE

11 -- CATWINGS

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  6 -- BUNDUKI, 13 -- VALENTINO DAY) 

THE PLAY

I'll go after a Late Pick 4, but how I structure it depends on what the scratches look like as Race 7 approaches. 

I do like my top four picks in Races 7,8,9 -- I love Famed and Gun Slinger in Race 10 and I do think LIKE THE KING has a legitimate shot in Race 8. 

So, we'll wait and see what the weather brings and if scratches occur. 

Good luck today!! 

paulie  

KEENELAND RESULTS -- 10/23/21

 

Ugh. 

What a day at Keeneland yesterday. Let's just pretend they DIDN'T run up there. I handicapped the final four races and gave you sixteen horses I thought might....aw, never mind...only five of my 16 hit the board -- NO WINNERS, two seconds and three thirds. A dismal 31% "in the money" percentage. Filling five of the 12 "payable sports wasn't much better -- 42% is pretty bad, too. 

RACE 7 -- HE'S MYHONEYBADGER (6-1) got the win for Brad Cox and Florent Geroux. I did have PIPELINE, who ran third in the Perryville Stakes. Perryville was the site of a Civil War battle here in Kentucky. Count me among the casualties.

RACE 8 -- MEGACITY (24-1) surprised the field with Joe Rocco on board. The Michael Tomlinson trainee beat out BIG DREAMING, who I had. 

RACE 9 -- CARMEL SWIRL (3-1) drew a lot more money than I thought she would and won the Raven Run Stakes. Junior Alvarado rode for Billy Mott. I had CILLA who ended up third. 

RACE 10 -- SANTIN (4-1) was best in the allowance closer for Adam Beschizza and Brendan Walsh. I came up with PINE KNOLL who ran second and RICOCHET who got third. 

The .50 Pick 4 -- (4/10/8/6) paid $4931 to those lucky enough to have it . 

Yesterday was like the quarterback who keeps getting sacked. All you can do is get back up, go to the huddle and try again. We'll do that Saturday. Hopefully, with much better results. 

paulie

KEENELAND PICKS -- 10/23/21

 A nice start to today's weather for racing at Keeneland, with the chance of some late day showers possible. Two stakes races and two allowance races make up the final four races of the day.

(Due to other afternoon obligations, I probably won't be able to update and scratches or changes. Let's hope there aren't any -- but I've listed an alternate for each race -- in case they happen).

Let's get to it. 

RACE 7 -- PERRYVILLE STAKES -- $150K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

8 -- COOL QUEST

5 -- PICKIN' TIME

9 -- RUNWAY MAGIC

6 -- PIPELINE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- #3 RAM) 

RACE 8 -- ALLOWANCE -- $83K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF) 

4 -- BIG AGENDA

11 -- BIZZEE CHANNEL

12 -- BIG DREAMING

7 -- ARGENTELLO

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- #9 -- SPECTULAR GEM) 

RACE 9 -- RAVEN RUN STAKES -- GII -- $350K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

3 -- SOUPER SENSATIONAL 

7 -- CILLA

5 -- STRONG SILENT

11 -- MISS SPEEDY

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- #13 OBLIGATORY) 

RACE 10 -- ALLOWANCE -- $86K -- ONE MILE (TURF) 

10 -- PINE KNOLL

4 -- HEALING

8 -- RICOCHET

11 - CLEARING WAIVERS

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- #5 GINSBURNED) 

The  Play: 

Let's chase a late Pick 4 and go with my top four picks in races 7-10. That'll get you out for $128 and, with no clear, odds-on favorites in the morning line, we should clear a nice profit if the handicapping hits. 

5,6,8,9/4,7,11,12/ 3,5,7,11/4,8,10,11

Best of luck! 

paulie

 

KEENELAND RESULTS -- 10/16/21

 It was a "true to form" kind of day at Keenelland yesterday. I handicapped the final four races on the card and my top selection won two of the races -- my second selection won the other two. 

I gave you 16 horses to consider. Out of those, I had four winners, four seconds and one third. That's a 56% "in the money" percentage. I fill nine of the 12 "payable spots for a 75% success rate. 

Let's break it down: 

RACE 7 -- BIG CITY MOMMA (3-1) used a nice stretch move under Tyler Gaffalione to win for trainer Shug McGaughey in the maiden race. I had that one and second place finisher STREET MISERY. 

RACE 8 -- SHANTISARA (5/2) prevailed in the stretch in the QEII Stakes -- a nice ride from west coast import Flavien Prat for Chad Brown. I also gave you TECHNICAL ADVISOR, who ran a strong second. 

RACE 9 -- DUCALE (4/5) took them wire-to-wire -- holding off WINTER POOL and MALIBU STAR in the stretch. I gave you all three. Florent Geroux on board for the Brad Cox runner. 

RACE 10 -- SOCIAL CHATTER (7/2) came flying from far back to squeak out the win for Rafael Bejarano and Victoria Oliver. I had that one and GHOSTING KIM, who narrowly lost.

When you have four winners, and none of them are over 3-1 in the final odds, chances are the Pick 4 isn't going to be a huge one, and that was the case yesterday -- paying $85.95 on the .50 cent wager . It may have been tempered a bit by the inclusion of the #7 in Race 9 in the payout-- a late scratch. 

So, it was the scenario of hitting the late Pick 4 but losing money on the wager.  That'll happen sometimes -- when you play a ticket that includes the possibility of some "shots" coming in for you -- when ...and "they" don't...and favorites prevail. At least I didn't have to toss the ticket on the ground as a complete loser. 

We'll give it a "go" next Saturday.

paulie

KEENELAND PICKS -- 10/16/21

 

It looks to be a beautiful. fall type day for racing at Keeneland today, no rain in the forecast and temperatures in the 60's. A good card, with two challenging allowance races, a maiden race that looks pretty tough and the Qoeen Elizabeth II, Grade I Cup Stakes. Two turf, two dirt. 

Let's get to it: 

RACE 7 -- MAIDEN -- 84K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

1 -- BIG CITY MOMMA

2 -- SOVEREIGN APPROVAL

5 -- STREET MISSION

3 -- SOUTH GEORGIA

RACE 8  -- QE II CUP -- 500K -- 1-18TH MILE (TURF) 

4 -- EMPRESS JOSEPH

3 -- SHANTISARA

2 -- TECHNICAL ADVISOR

8 -- FLIPPANT

RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE -- 86K -- 1 MILE

1 -- MALIBU STAR

5 -- DUCATE

4 -- WINTER POOL

2 -- OTTOTHELEGEND

RACE 10 -- ALLOWNCE -- 88K -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) 

1 -- SOCIAL CHATTER

4 -- CHILI PETIN

3 -- GHOSTING KIM

6 -- SIGNIFY

THE PLAY: 

Let's chase a late Pick 4 here (races 7-10) and take my first three picks in Race 7. I'll follow that up with my top four picks in Race 8 -- and include #10 CLOSING ROMANCE in the OE II -- this one has been a West Coaster -- has been in the money seven out of nine times and run in eight stakes races out there. In Race 9, I'll take my top four and might consider #9 Mr. Tip -- he goes from turf to dirt and has faced tougher in his career. I'll end with my top four picks in the Race 10 closer -- this one is wide open, honestly, and -- keep an eye open -- if #13 or #15 get "in" off the AE list -- they should be respected. Add them, if needed, and replace the 6 and/or the 4. 

1,2,5/2,3,4,8,10/1,2,4,5,9/1,3,4,6  =  Cost $150

Good luck today! 

paulie

KEENELAND RESULTS -- 10/9/21

 Some great stakes racing yesterday at Keeneland -- not the best results for my handicapping efforts though. 

I gave you 20 horses total in the five races (Race 6-10) and out of those, I had three winners, two seconds and four thirds. That 45% "in the money" is nothing to stop the presses over. Out of the 15 possible "payout" spots -- I had nine of them -- I won't boast about a 60% success rate. 

RACE 6 -- It went according to form and my handicapping. GOLDEN PAL (1/2) took the Woodford and got a great ride from John Velasquez. I also had EXTRAVAGENT KID for second and COUNTY FINAL, who got third. At least it was a good start to my handicapping.

RACE 7 -- Even money BELL'S THE ONE was the one in the TCA stakes. Popular Kentucky circuit rider Corey Lanerie had the ride I had him, as well as third place runner ESTILO TALENTOSO

RACE 8 -- BLOWOUT blew by the field to capture the First Lady Stakes at 5-1 with popular west coast jockey Flavian Prat riding for Chad Brown. I had that one, but couldn't come up with a place or show in the race. 

RACE 9 -- Here's where it "blew up" for me. I did not have 9-1 winner Rattle N Roll. Brian Hernandez Jr took this one on an outside path as the entered the start of the final tuen and just demolished the field for the Kenny McPeek horse. I had DOUBLE THUNDER who followed for second and CLASSIC CAUSEWAY who faded to third. Didn't see that one coming.

RACE 10 -- A longshot -- IN LOVE (12-1) moved well in the stretch to take the Turf Mile Stales for Alex Achard and Paula Lobo. I didn't have that one, just SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN for third. 

The Pick 4 paid $1689 on a .50 cent venture. I went a different way -- putting $2 to win on each of my 20 runners. I got back $19.80 on the $40 wager. I didn't get to see any of the races "live" -- I was watching Louisville lose a heartbreaking football game yesterday -- so I didn't know about my beat-down until Sunday morning. 

We'll give it a go next Saturday

paulie

KEENELAND PICKS -- 10/9/21

 Some great stAkes racing on the opening weekend at Keeneland for the fall, and today's card has five stakes -- three on the turf and a combination of sprints and distances. Let's get to it! 

RACE 6 -- WOODFORD STAKES -- GII -- $200K -- 5-1.2 FURLONGS (TURF) 

2 -- GOLDEN PAL

4 -- FIRECROW

6 -- EXTRAVAGENT KID

7 -- COUNTY FINAL

RACE 7 -- TCA -- GII -- $250K -- SIX FURLONGS

4 -- ESTILO TALENTOSO

6 -- BELL'S THE ONE

1 -- FRANK'S ROCKETTE

3 -- INTHEMIDSTOFBIZ

RACE 8 -- FIRST LADY STAKES -- GI -- $400K -- ONE MILE (TURF) 

3 -- ALTHIQA

5 -- HENDY WOODS

9 -- BLOWOUT

7 -- DADDY IS A LEGEND

RACE 9 -- BREEDERS CUP FUTURITY -- GI -- $500K -- 1-1/16TH MILES

5 -- DON'T WAIT UP 

3 -- STELLAR TAP 

13 -- CLASSIC CAUSEWAY

1 -- DOUBLE THUNDER

RACE 10 -- TURF MILE STAKES -- GI -- $750K -- ONE MILE (TURF) 

10 -- ORDER OF AUSTRIALIA

13 -- SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN

11 -- DIAMOND OOPS

7  -- PIXELATE 

THE PLAY

Race 6 starts a Pick 5, so let's go for it. Speed seemed to be holding up pretty well yesteday on opening day -- but it is way too early to say if that's going to be a track trend.  

We'll start with 2,4,6 in Race 6, go with 1,4,6 in Race 7 and then 3,9 in Race 8. Let's use 3.5.13 in Race 9 and then all four picks in Race 10 -- 7,10,11,13.  

Playing the .50 version of the Pick 5 gets us "in the game" for $108 and gives us good coverage. 

Keeping up on scratches today will be tough -- warning you in advance --  I've got another commitment this afternoon....but with the forecast dry, sunny and in the mid 80's -- I can't see too many bailing out today

Good luck!

paulie

CHURCHILL RESULTS -- 10/2/21

A interesting, if a bit strange, final four races at Churchill yesterday.

I gave you 16 horses to consider, and had to jump back in to take care of a couple of scratches in the two stakes races of the four I handicapped. Out of the picks I had just two winners, three seconds and two thirds.  A 43% "in the money" isn't up to my usual standards. 58% success in hitting the "payable" spots isn't great either. 

KNICKS GO (2/5) played with the field in the Lukas Classic Stakes before going on to win. INDEPENDENCE HALL followed him home for second and I did have those two picks. It was a nice Breeders Cup tune up for Brad Cox's horse and Joel Rosario did enough to make sure he won and didn't get into any trouble

Race 9 was a disaster. I didn't get any of my four picks in the money. 6-1 SHE CAN"T SING, with Javier Castellano in saddle probably should have been one of my four picks for the racce, butI liked others better. Shows what I know, right? 

In the ACK ACK Stakes, PLAINSMAN (5-1) got it done for Brad Cox and Joel Rosario again. I did lke that one as well as the heavy favorite BEAU LIAM who ran second. 

In the nightcap it was bombs away with 20-1 HAPPY AMERICAN upsetting the rest. I had the second, third and fourth place finishers but could not come up with the Neal Pessin trained, James Graham ridden winner. (You know that James Graham -- he's a cracker) 

The Pick 4 payout (2-11-7-7) was good, not great paying $648.20 on the .50 cent wager. I didn't have it, and congrats if you did, 

The horses move to Keeneland next week. We'll try our luck there.

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS PICKS -- 10/2/21

 A huge card at Churchill today with two stakes and a very competitive allowance race mixed in the final four race of the day . Let's jump into it! 

RACE 8 -- LUKAS CLASSIC -- GIII -- $400K -- 1-1/8TH MILE

2 -- KNICKS GO

3 -- TACITUS

5 --INDEPENDENCE HALL

6 -- SPRAWL 

RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- $141K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

9 -- PORTAL CREEK 

8 - HIMIKO 

6 -- VELVET CRUSH

1 -- GRAND CRU CLASSIC

RACE 10 -- THE ACK ACK STAKES -- GII -- $300k -- ONE MILE

10 -- BEAU LIAM

7 -- PLAINSMAN

9 -- SOUTH BEND

6 -- ALOHA WEST SCRATCH

8 -- ATOKA

RACE 11 -- ALLOWANCE -- $127K -- 1-1/8TH MILE

4 -- LAUGHING BOY

10 -- RUNNIN RAY

9 -- CALIBRATE

13 -- FIRST  LINE SCRATCH

12 -- CHEFFY

I'll try to jump in later in the day with any scratches and changes in my picks, if they occur. 

THE PLAY

I'll chase a late Pick 4, going two deep in Race 8 (2,3), and then taking all four of my picks in Race 9 - 11. 

Cost: $64

2,3/1,6,8,9/6,7,9,10/4.9.10,13

Good luck today! 

paulie