CHURCHILL DOWNS RESULTS -- 5/29/21

 

I handicapped the seven stakes races at Churchill Downs yesterday and had a bit of success. All told, I gave out 35 horses who I thought might have a shot at winning those seven races. I ended up with six or seven winners (we'll get into that in a minute), six places and six shows. The win discrepancy came in Race 6, when one of my picks (SILVER DUST) became fractious at the gate and was scratched. The decided to unload all the horses when that happened and it gave me a couple of minutes to find a fifth horse to put in my selections. I came up with the eventual winner (MIGHTY HEART). 

It was too late to change him out for Pick 4 purposes, but, I was able to add/subtract the runners in Pick 3 and trifecta pursuits. So, Il  figure the percentages on having a winner in Race 6. "In the money"  turned out to be a 54% percentage (19 out of 35).  When you consider there were 21 payout sports available, and I filled 19 of those -- that's a pretty decent 90% cashable number. 

Let's look at the races: 

RACE 5 -- CELLIST (5-2) got the job done and PALAZZI ran second, with ROYAL PRINCE getting show. I had all three in my picks. The trifecta of 6-1-8 paid $43.25 on the .50 cent box. Julian Leparoux had the ride for George Arnold. The horse was an early line 8-1 but the bettors flocked to him. . 

RACE 6 -- My late addition MIGHTY HEART (9-1) crossed the wire first. I also had NIGHT OPS , who placed, and SPRAWL to complete the trifecta -- it paid $33.90 on the .50, five horse trifecta box. James Graham did the piloting out odf Josie Carroll's barn. 

RACE 7 -- ENVOUTANTE (2-5) was awesome in hitting the wire first, followed by MISS BIGLY and PARIS LIGHTS followed them home for third. It was a poor paying trifecta ($10.45) and the Pick 3 was $57.10 for 6-1-7 and $2.70 if you had 6-7-7. Brian Hernandez, Jr. got it done for Kenny McPeek. 

RACE 8 -- GAM'S MISSION (6-1) was a bit of a surprise but I had her in the Regret Stakes. I also had SPANISH LOVE AFFAIR for place and FLOWN who ended up third. The trifecta brought back $31.55, the Pick 3 was cashable at $82.10 and the Pick 4 a nice score if you had it at $455.35. Adam Beschizza got the stakes win for trainer Cherie deVaux. A key scratch was SARANYA. I substituted LINE DANCING, who beat just one horse. 

RACE 9 -- I saw the MATT WINN STAKES as a three horse race and it turned out to be that way FULSOME (8-5) outran O BESOS and HELIUM in the stretch and Florent Geroux gave a very serviceable ride for Brad Cox. The trifecta was disappointing at $8.45 and the Pick 3 not much better at $18.45. 

RACE 10 -- This race was probably my worst handicapping effort of the day. I did come up with BANGO (4-1) but couldn't get anything else to finish in the money with him. Marcelino Pedroza held the reins for this Greg Foley runner. The trifecta would have been nice at $430.05, I did call the Pick 3 though, it returned $81.80.

RACE 11 -- SET PIECE (6-5) looked the best of these, I had him with RAMSEY'S SOLUTION in second and ANOTHER MYSTERY in third. Florent Geroux and Brad Cox teamed up again for a win for Juddmonte Farms. The trifecta cashed for $20.15, the Pick 3 paid $23.60 and the late Pick 4 returned $157.80.

--  It was surprising that meet leading rider Tyler Gaffalione had no wins in the final seven races and just one win on the 11 race card. If you had put $2 across the board on his 10 mounts of the day, that $60 bet would have returned $53.20....his winner was a 8-1 shot, and he did finished second or third in several races. 

--  I was VERY IMPRESSED with the win by BEAU LIAM in the third race. This Steve Asmussen  runner broke his maiden very easily in his first race ever and beat a good field at 6-1 odds for six furlongs Look out for this one down the road -- he's out of Stonestreet Stables and looked like he could go much further than 3/4th of a mile. 

--  Next Saturday bring the Belmont Stakes, so I'll shift my attention to New York and look at some of the stakes races that go along with that always-full stakes card. Churchill will have some pretty fine races also next Saturday.

(For years, I used to head to Churchill on Belmont Stakes Day and play both tracks. A friend would invite me to the Turf Club and it was a great experience.  I won't be doing that next week -- personal choice -- but it can be a fun day if you decide to try it). 

We'll give it a go next week! 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTIONS -- 5/29/21

 

A great day of Saturday racing at Churchill Downs this Memorial Day weekend, with seven stakes races at the Twin Spires (races 5-11). Mostly distance races, both turf and dirt and two Grade III's in the mix. 

Let's "give it a go" and get to it !!  

RACE 5 -- AUDUBON STAKES -- $150K -- 1-1/8TH MILE (TURF) 

8 --ROYAL PRINCE

2 -- LIKE THE KING

1 -- PALAZZI

4 -- HIDDEN ENEMY 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 6 -- CELLIST) 

RACE 6 -- BLAME STAKES -- $150K -- 1-1/8TH MILE

2 -- SPRAWL

5 -- AMERICAN DERBY

7 -- SILVER DUST (Scratched)

4 -- NIGHT OPS 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR /ALSO CONSIDER -- 6 -- SOUTH BEND)

****LATE ADD DUE TO LATE SCRATCH -- 1 -- MIGHTY HEART)****  

RACE 7 -- SHAWNEE STAKES -- 1-1/16TH MILE

7 -- ENVOUTANTE

8 -- PARIS LIGHTS 

6 -- GOODBYE EAARL 

1 -- MICROCAP

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 4 -- MISS BIGLY) 

RACE 8 -- REGRET STAKES -- GRADE III -- $150K -- 1-1/8TH MILE (TURF) 

5 -- BARISTA

8 -- FLOWN

4 -- SPANISH LOVE AFFAIR

7 -- GAM'S MISSION 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 3 -- LINE DANCING) 

RACE 9 -- MATT WINN STAKES -- GIII -- 1-1/16TH MILE

3 -- O BESOS

2 -- HELIUM

5 -- FULSOME

8 -- GAME DAY PLAN 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 1 -- READY TO POUNCE) 

RACE 10 -- ARISTIDES STAKES -- $150K -- SIX FURLONGS 

5 -- EMPIRE OF GOLD

10 -- TAP IT TO WIN 

1 -- HAUNT 

2 -- TOUGH LOVE 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 3 -- BANGO) 

RACE 11 -- DOUGLAS PARK STAKES -- $110K -- 1-1/6TH MILE (TURF) 

8 -- SET PIECE

4 -- RAMSEY'S SOLUTION 

9 -- GRAY'S FABLE

2 -- ANOTHER MYSTERY 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 3 -- PARLOR) 

(I'LL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SCRATCHES AND COME IN & UPDATE AS BEST I CAN.)

THE PLAY

There are two Pick 4 's in this sequence (races 5-8 and races 8-11) so you might want to look at those. You could also look at rolling Pick 3's -- there are five of those available. 

On the Pick 4's,...in the first one, a suggestion is go five deep in races 5 -6, then shorten up to two horses (7,8) in race 7, and go back to five deep in race 8. It's a $125 Pick 4. (Prices based on a .50 cent Pick 4)

In the second Pick 4...start race 8 five deep, then drop to three horses (2.3.5) in race 9, and then go five deep in races 10 and 11. That'll run you $187.50. (Prices based on a .50 Pick 4).

If you go the pick 3 route, you can do a five-horse, .50 cent Pick 3 for $62.50. You've got five chances here...

Trifecta boxes are always popular. A .50 cent tri-box in each each with my top five picks will cost you $30 per race and you have seven chances of success there. 

Keep in mind that TYLER GAFFALIONE is leading the jockeys at Churchill with wins, he's hitting at a 22% win rate. He has 26 wins, 19 places and 26 shows in 118 mounts. That's a 61% "in the money" percentage !  He's got rides in six of the seven stakes races (not in race 9) -- and in 10 of the 11 races on today's card. Playing him "across the board" in all ten races would cost you $60 for the day -- based on a $2 wager) -- it'd be interesting to see if you can make a profit this way...

However you decide to go...good luck to you today and enjoy this excellent card @ Churchill

Bet 'em anyway you like and get some wins ! 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS RESULTS -- 5/22/21

 An interesting evening at Churchill Downs last night, on a cleat evening with a huge capaccity at the Twin Spires for night racing. 

We looked at Races 5-11 yesterday in my selections, and I gave you 28 runners I thought might contend forr "the money". With a couple of scratches, a bit of last minute adaptation was needed, but...overall...I had four winners out of the seven races, five places and four shows. That is a 46% "in the money" percentage. Out of the 21 payable spors up for grabs, I filled 14 of them, or 66% of them.  It isn't the best work I've ever done, but, in a seven race sequence where there was nothing over 5-1 that won, it wasn't bad.

Here the race-by-race recap: 

RACE 5 -- SCONSIN (1-1), my top pick, got the win over FRANK'S ROCKETTE, the favorite,, who finished third, and  RISING SEAS ran second.  I had all three in my selections -- not hard to do in a five-horse race in the Winning Colors Stakes. So far, so good. Hot Tyler Gaffalione was the pilot. BAYERNESS got scratched, I substituted HEADLAND, who never fired. 

RACE 6 --  DUPLICITOUS (5-1) was the best, with VINTAGE READY running second and MY GIRL LEXI getting up for third. I had VINTAGE ReadY in my picks. Miguel Mena had the winning ride in this lower level claiming affair. 

RACE 7 -- SEASIDE RETREAT (5/2) hit the line first, he was my top pick in the race. Longshot PRINCESS LEA held on for second and BOLD TACTICS completed the trifecta. The Pick 3 paid $32.20 on the .50 cent attempt. Corey Lanerie was on the winner. 

RACE 8 -- (5-1) EMPTY TOMB got his picture taken for Tyler Gaffalione and was one of my picks. MAILMAN MONEY delivered second and favorite BIG DREAMING collected show money. GUEST SUITE was scratched, so I substituted FINNICK THE FIERCE, who ran huge for fourth at 29-1 odds. The Pick 3 paid $85.20 and the Pick 4 got you $243.70.

RACE 9 --  TEMPLE CITY TERROR (5-1) caught up with front-running DALIKA just in time to take the Keertana Stakes. Adam Beschizza was on board. TWEETY SHAW was a huge price for third. The Pick 3 got you $89.00. I was disappointed in Pass The Plate and Delta Kingdom's performances, they were my top two picks and are "still running" I guess. 

RACE 10  -- ALOHA WEST was my top pick and dominated the field in this one, at 3/5 odds with Florent Geroux getting the ride. SCHMOOZIN was a surprise for second and INCORRIGIBLE hit the wire third. The Pick 3 returned $48.15.

RACE 11 -- I didn't like CASANOVA KITTEN in the final, but Ricardo Santana gave her a good ride to win at 9/2 odds. I did like CHANTRY FALLS who ran second and SUMMER PALACE, who got third. The Pick 3 was worth $35.50 and the Pick 4 $256.95.

So, a sequence where there were no major upsets last night. The difficulty lies, sometimes, in wondering how deep to go in a race -- compared to what the payout might be. I experimented with a few "price" longshots and neglected a couple of 5-1 shots in the five-race sequence that ultimately made me a non-winner overall on the card.

Tyler Gaffalione is really taking the meet by storm so far and is a rider you don't want to "go to sleep" on. Florent Geroux has ridden considerably less mounts than Tyler, but is nipping at his heels for the title of leading jockey. 

We'll give it a go next Saturday . 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTIONS -- 5/22/21

 

We get racing under the lights tonight at Churchill Downs, a nice card that includes two stakes races, a couple of tough allowance races and 11 total affairs that'll take us to past Paulie's bedtime. 

I've handicapped races 5-11 for tonight, on a night that is themed as a country bar setting, that should be interesting, with a lotta boots, hats, two live bands and line dancing. 

Post time is 6 p.m. and the event will go past 11 p.m., so, if you're going or going to watch on cable or on-line, an afternoon nap might be a good bet...  

Here we go: 

(Note: if scratches occur in any of these, I'll do my best to update the picks...) 

RACE 5 -- WINNING COLORS STAKES -- GIII -- $150K -- SIX FURLONGS

4 -- SCONSIN

2 -- FRANK'S ROCKETTE

5 -- BAYERNESS  (scratched)

1 -- RISING SEAS

6 -- HEADLAND

RACE 6 -- CLAIMING -- $30K -- SIX FURLONGS

7 -- FIELD DAISEY 

6 -- NIGHTLIFE

8 -- VINTAGE ROAD

2 -- UNTIL NOW

RACE 7 -- MAIDEN -- $100K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

5 -- SEASIDE RETREAT

6 -- BOLD TACTICS

4 -- CLOSET SHOPPER

7 -- KIZZY B

RACE 8 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- $80K -- I MILE 

6 -- THIRSTFORLIFE

3 -- MY SIXTH SENSE

4 -- EMPTY TOMB

8 -- GUEST SUITE  (scratched)

2 -- FINNICK THE FIERCE

RACE 9 -- KEERTANA STAKES -- $110K -- 1-1/2 MILE  (TURF) 

5 -- PASS THE PLATE

8 -- DELTA KINGDOM 

10 -- DALIKA

2 -- FIRST COURSE

RACE 10 -- ALLOWANCE -- $100K -- 7 FURLONGS

2 -- ALOHA WEST

1 --CALIBRATTE

4 -- INCORRIGIBLE

3 -- TRASHTALKINGYANKEE

RACE 11 -- ALLOWANCE -- $50K -- 1-1/16TH MILE  (TURF) 

10 -- EXULT

8 -- CHANTRY FALLS

4 -- BEACHWALKER

3 -- SUMMER PALACE

THE PLAYS

I'm looking at a couple of Pick 4's here...one for races 5-8 and one for races 8-11. I'll just go with my top four picks in each race, and ignore the tote board. When you get what is expected to be a big crowd tonight and a party atmosphere that Downs After Dark usually turns out to be, the odds can be altered by the inexperienced bettor whose just out to have a good time and doesn't take the time to study the runners. That's all well and fine, it can sometimes be beneficial to the serious handicapper.

If you want to go a little less expensive, you might try Pick 3's. A rolling Pick 3 sequence, beginning in Race 5, gives you five bets of $32 each if you do the .50 cent variety with my picks. 

Going the trifecta route will run you $12 a race for the four horse box at .50 cents and $30 a race for a five horse box at .50 cents. 

Churchill has been favoring speed this week, especially on the dirt,  and you might keep an eye on the earlier races and see if that's holding form. 

.50 cent Pick 4 -- Races 5-8:   1,2,4,5/2,6,7,8/4,5,6,7/3,4,6,8 -- Cost $128

.50 cent Pick 4 -- Races 8-11:  3,4,6,8/2,5,8,10/1,2,3,4/3,4,8,10 -- Cost $128

As always, play 'en anyway you like and good luck to you! .

paulie  

PREAKNESS RESULTS -- 5/15/21

 The old phrase "I didn't see that coming" would be perfectly applicable for the running of the Preakness Stakes yesterday at Pimlico. 

With all the discussion of Baffert's horses, bourbon at Midnight and .such, it was a nice move by ROMBAUER,  who went unnoticed for the most part at 11-1 and came roaring down the stretch to run by MEDINA SPIRIT and MIDNIGHT BOURBON to take the middle jewel of the Triple Crown. I looked at using him and decided against it....putting Crowded Trade and Risk Taking in front of him in my analysis of the race.

He showed my thinking and handicapping to be in error. 

On the day I looked at Pimlico Races 10-13 for my Paulie Picks. I gave out 20 horses I thought might hit the board. Out of those, 10 of them "hit the board" for a 50% "in the money" percentage.  I filled 10 of the 12 available "money spots" in those races -- for a 83% success rate. I played a Pick 4, and two Pick 3's in the sequence and lost just a little overall -- we'll look at that in a little bit. 

It wasn't a "local jockey makes good" day at Pimlico. Imports in to ride for the Preakness Card won the final ten races at Pimlico. 

RACE 10 -- My "also use" pick in the race, FIRECROW (9-1) outran them all in the Turf Sprint. I also had THE CRITICAL WAY for second and COMPLETED PASS for third. If you a trifecta player, you could have boxed the five in a .50 trifecta box for $30 and got $83.55 in the payout. 

RACE 11 -- It was SPECIAAL RESERVE (7/2), another of my "also use" picks that got to the wire first. That kept me alive in the first Pick Three and the Pick 4. I also gave you STRIKE POWER, who ran second.

RACE 12 -- SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN (5/2) finished in front of TALK OR LISTEN and  MISNIGHT TEA TIME and i gave all all three of those in my picks. That resulted in a Pick 3 that paid $257.10 (on the .50 cent wager) and a .50 trifecta that was worth $196.70. 

RACE 13 -- ROMBAUER (11-1) was the best in the Preakness, and my picks MEDINA SPIRIT and MIDNIGHT BOURBON ran second and third.  

If you included "the moderately priced California White Zinfadel" (which is what the horse was named for) in what you wagered, you got a Pick 3 that paid $179.80, a Pick 4 that was worth $2797.60 and a trifecta returning $81.35. 

                                                        *************************

So, on the day's wagering at Pimlico, I waged a total of $275 on the sequence and got back $257.10,,,for a loss of about $17-18 dollars.

 It would have been a good day to "tri box" --- an investment of $120 would have returned $360. Congratulations to my "pal" who does that with my picks. 

The controversy will continue to swirl about whether the "beta potata" Baffert has to juggle cot Medina Spirit the Preakness. As for me, I'll just accept the run in Baltimore for what it was -- two speed horse went out, led most of the way, but got caught by a closer. it happens all the time in horse racing. 

We'll see ya next week. 

paulie

 

PREAKNESS DAY PICKS -- 5/15/21

 So, we'll leave Kentucky racing today to try our skills at Pimlico and the Preakness card.  A good quality sequence of races today up in Maryland -- I'll concentrate on the Pick 4 today that runs from Race 10 - Race 13. Two turf, a challenging six furlong dirt sprint and the Preakness race. 

To be honest, I am not really familiar with the Maryland jockey colony or riders -- Charlie Marquez and Carol Cedeno seem to be doing pretty good up there -- do they match up with the Ortiz brothers, Rosario, Saez and Castellano? 

RACE 10 -- JIM MCKAY TURF SPRINT -- $100K -- 5 FURLONGS (TURF) 

4 -- THE CRITICAL WAY

13 -- COMPLETED PASS

1 -- BOLDOR

5 -- HOLLIS 

(ALSO/ OR IF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  11 -- FIRECROW)

RACE 11 -- MARYLAND SPRINT -- GIII -- $150K -- 6 FURLONGS

5 -- STRIKE POWER

2 -- YODEL E.A. WHO

1 -- LAKI 

7 -- BREEZY GUST

(ALSO/ OR IF SCRATCHES OCCUR: 8 -- SPECIAL RESERVE) 

RACE 12 -- DINNER PARTY STAKES -- GII -- $250K -- 1-1/16TH (TURF) 

5 -- SACRED LIFE

1 -- SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN

6 -- TALK OR LISTEN 

3 -- KORMATA

(ALSO/IF SCRATCHES OCCUR: 4 -- MIDNIGHT TEA TIME)

RACE 13 -- PREAKNESS -- GI -- $1 MILLION -- 1-3/16TH MILE 

3 -- MEDINA SPIRIT

5 -- MIDNIGHT BOURBON 

10 -- CONCERT TOUR 

5 -- CROWDED TRADE 

(ALSO/IF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  9 --RISK TAKING) 

The Play 

I'll try the .50 Pick 4 that goes from Races 10-13 and I'll also toss in a couple of Pick 3's in that sequence.  In the Pick 4, I'm going to play my five picks in Races 10-12 and then hope either Medina Spirit or Midnight Bourbon can get the win in the Preakness. 

In the Pick 3's (Races 10-12 and Race 11-13)  a simple .50 bet of my five Picks in all four races. 

PICK 4:  1,4,5,11,13/1,2,5,7,8/1,3,4,5,6/3,5   -- COST: $125

PICK 3:  (RACES 10-12):  1,4,5,11,13,/1,2,5,7,8/1,3,4,5,6  -- COST:  $62.50  

PICK 3:  (RACES 11-13):  1,2,5,7,8/1,3,4,5,6/3,4,5,9,10  -- COST:  $62.50

As far as any other races on the card today:  

RACE 1 -- You might start a Pick 3 here with 4,5 -- go 3,5,10,12 in Race 2 -- and finish it with 2,4,6.   It's only a $12 cent Pick 3 and will give you an idea of how speed and closers arre doing on the track, while maybe making a little bank...

RACE 4 -- Maybe look at the .50 cent Pick 3 with 4,6,12,13/2,4,5,6,7/3,4,5.  A $24 wager that has possibilities. 

RACE 7 -- I like  2,3,5,9,10/1,2,8/2,5,8 in a .50 cent Pick 3 -- that's only $18, hopefully I'm "using their money" to bet these

GOOD LUCK TODAY !!

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS RESULTS -- 5/8/21

 I chsed the late Pick 5 at Churchill yesterday and did fairly good overall but only hit four of the five races , so...I DID NOT WIN THE $2237 IT PAID ON THE .50 CENT WAGER.

On the day, I gave you 20 horses to consider over the final five races. Out of those, I had four winners, three places and three shows,  for a 50% "in the money" rate.  I filled 10 of the 15 possible "payable" slots for 66.6%. 

Here's how it went, race by race. 

RACE 7 -- I hit the win, place and show spots with HIMIKO (1-1), RISING SEAS and AVIE's SAMURI. It was a good way to start the sequence and the trifecta paid $18.40 on the $1 wager. That made a little profit on the $12 wager. 

RACE 8 -- Once again, I had the win, place and show with GAM'S MISSION (8-1), FLOWN, AND MUNNYFOR RO. That was a considerably better tri, paying $355.80 on the $1 box wager of four horses for $12 bucks

RACE 9 -- I gave out the first and seccond place finishers with CRYSTAL BALL (3/5) and MARKET RUNNER. I "singled" CRYSTAL BALL in the PICK 5 and got a run for my money, barely winning after a long stretch duel. That was more anxiety than I needed out of a 3/5 odds-on favorrite...

RACE 10 -- The bomb dropped herre, with 25-1 LADY EDITH getting to the wire first. I didn't have her. I did get NAVRATILOVA up for third, but, GOIN GOOD stumbling out of the gate and running dead last for most of the race didn't help me one bit. I wouldn't expect such out of Brad Cox and Florent Geroux usually. It crashed the Pick 5.

RACE 11 -- MUCHACHA (2-1) was the best out of these optional claimer in the finale, and I gave you that one. I couldn't get anything else home in the top three, though. 

So, I dropped $96 on the failed Pick 5, but put $60 total in trifecta boxes and that brought back a profit of $314.20 on those. I'll gladly accept a $218 profit on the day.  Sometimes, the trifecta box can be your best buddy at the track and it proved to be Saturday. 

I had mentioned watching Luis Saez yesterday in New York. He went 2-9 in his rides yesterday at Belmont, but did win the Peter Pan on (3/2) Promise Keeper -- this prep race for the Belmont Stakes gave Todd Pletcher a winner and definitely one to consider for the final leg of the Triple Crown .

 He was still full of run after winning the one turn, 1-1/8th mile race and ran away from Nova Rags in the stretch to win by two lengths. That means Saez may need to think a bit about whether he wants to remain on Essential Quality (who is skipping the Preakness) for Brad Cox or stay on Promise Keeper in the Belmont.  

We'll give it a go next Saturday. 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTIONS -- 5/8/21

 

They're running at the Downs today and a nice card should make the handicapping a great challenge . I'm looking at the Late Pick 5, with two on the turf, including a Stakes sprint and a very tough final for Race 11 with maiden claimers. 

RACE 7 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- $80K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

4 -- RISING SEAS

2 -- HIMIKO

3 -- AVIE'S SAMURI 

5 -- ON THE TOWN 

RACE 8 -- ALLOWANCE-- $102K  -- 1-1/16TH MILE -- (TURF) 

12 -- FLWON

7 -- MONEYFOR RO

10 -- GAM'S TOUR

5 -- VIBURNUM

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 4 -- MARBOROUGH ROAD) 

RACE 9 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- $62.5k -- 1-1/16TH MILE

1  -- CRSYTAL BALL

10 -- MARKET RUMOR 

7 -- FIGURE IT OUT

3 -- FUNNY BET

RACE 10 --  MAMZELLE STAKES -- $110K -- FIVE FURLONGS -- (TURF) 

2 -- GOIN' GOOD

4 -- WINK 

3 -- ILLEGAL SMILE 

12 -- NAVRATILOVA

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR  -- 7 -- AMANZI YIMPILO)

RACE 11 -- MAIDEN CLAIMING -- $50K -- SEVEN FURLONGS 

4 -- LOVE ENOUGH

7 -- MOCHACHA

3 -- MENDING 

9 -- VILLAGE QUEEN

In a Pick 5, I think it's wise to try to find a race where I can use a single confidently, to lower the overall cost. That looks to be Race 9 today, where CRYSTAL BALL should handle these optional claimers pretty easily.  It's tough to put it all out there in a muliti-race sequence, with one leg down to one horse -- but Baffert is going with Florent Geroux on the horse, he's tied for second in the jockey standings and the top jockey (Luis Saez) is up in New York riding for Pletcher today. If you play multiple tracks, you might keep an eye on Saez and Pletcher today in New York. 

So, I'll chase it like this: 

Race 7 -- 2,3,4,5

Race 8 -- 5,7,10,12 

Race 9 -- 1 

Race 10 -- 2,3,4

Race 11 -- 3.4.7.9

COST $96

As always, play 'em however you like and best of luck today !!

paulie

DERBY DAY RESULTS -- 5/1/21

 

Well, ol' Bob Baffert laid low all week and, Medina Spirit proved to be the best in the Kentucky Derby. I didn't see it happening and, at 12-1, not many others did either. Congrats to him and Johnny V. 

On the day, I handicapped the seven stakes races and gave out 30 horses total that I liked. I had six winners, five seconds and six thirds. That's a 56% "in the money" percentage. I filled 17 of the 21 "money sports" available -- for a 81% success rate. Let's break it down by race: 

RACE 6 -- BLOWOUT (9/5) was my top pick and got it done in the Turf Mile. I also had second with NEW YORK GIRL and third with ZOFELLE. Exacta and trifecta here. 

RACE 7 -- GAMINE (1/5) was spectacular in her win in the Derby City Distaff, despite not seeming to like the surface at Churchill. I also had SCONSIN for second and ESTILO TALENTO for third. Exacta and trifecta again. 

RACE 8 -- JACKIE'S WARRIOR (2-1) took the Pat Day Mile. I gave you him, second place DREAM SHAKE and third place WHISKEY DOUBLE. Another exacta, trifecta and the Pick 3. 

RACE 9 -- DUJOUR (5/1) gave Baffert a stakes win in the Turf Stakes. I did not have him....just third place finisher WINFROMWITHIN in my picks. 

RACE 10 -- FLAGSTAFF (9/2) was one of my picks in the Churchill Downs Stakes, along with WHITMORE for show. 

RACE 11 -- The Turf Classic ended up a dead heat between two of my picks -- COLONEL LIAM (3-1) and DOMESTIC SPENDING (9/2) . I also had SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT, who got third. Exacta (twice) and trifecta (twice). 

RACE 12 -- Credit to Medina Spirit who took the Derby in front-running fashion. I ran second with my pick MANDALOUN and third with HOT ROD CHARLIE. ESSENTIAL QUALITY ran fourth and O BESOS fifth, two more of my picks. The running time of 2:01:02 wasn't particularly impressive, but it was good enough to win. The Pick 4 (5/4/3,5/8) paid $708 on the .50 cent wager.  

So, it goes.

I had one stroke of good fortune in the exotics by hitting the Oaks/Forester Turf Stakes/Derby Pick 3. Quite by luck...a $150 wager got me back $436...that helped a bit, but, I went six deep in the Derby leg of that bet and just tossed Medina Spirit in "for fun, for Baffert and Johnny V."  

I ended up losing money on the day, despite the early luck I had in my picks. That early confidence and success in my picks caused me to think I was invincible, and, the horses showed me I was not. I wonder how that mattress guy from Houstton feels this morning -- after tossing millions at Essential Quality. 

Still, six winners in seven races isn't exactly "el-stinko" I figured that a $2 WPS wager on all 30 of my picks would have cost $180. You would have got back $171.30...The seven trifectas I tried cost $210 in all. They returned $159. 

I have a buddy who puts $2 to win on all the horses in the Derby every year. Of course, he loved it when Country House got the "W" in 2019, but this year he lost $12. 

We can pick winners all day, we just can't pick what we will get paid for them. 

We'll give it a go next Saturday.

paulie

DERBY DAY PICKS -- CHURCHILL DOWNS -- 5/1/21

 HAPPY DERBY TO ALL !!!!

It's a great card this Kentucky Derby Day and there are seven GREAT stakes races ahead, on a full card today at Churchill. So, get your Mint Julep, a comfy chair and get ready for eight plus hours of running at the Twin Spires. 

RACE 6 -- TURF MILE -- GII -- $500K -- ONE MILE (TURF) 

6 -- BLOWOUT

5 -- GOT STORMY

3 -- NEW YORK GIRL 

4 -- ZOFELLE

(If scratches occur:  2 -- She's Got You) 

RACE 7 -- DERBY CITY DISTAFF -- GI -- $500K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

4 -- GAMINE

3 -- BELL'S THE ONE

2 -- SCONSIN

1 -- ESTILO TALENTO

(If scratches occur:  5 -- Hibiscus Punch)

RACE 8 -- PAT DAY MILE -- GII -- $500K -- ONE MILE

8 -- DREAM SHAKE

3 -- JACKIE'S WARRIOR

7 -- WHISKEY DOUBLE

12 -- JOE FRAZIER

(If scratches occur:  6 -- Starrinmydreams) 

RACE 9 -- AMERICAN TURF -- GII -- $500K -- 1-/16TH MILE (TURF) 

4 -- ANNEX

13 -- SCARLETT SKY

2 -- WINFROMWITHIN

1 -- EXCELLENT TIMING

(If scratches occur:  14 -- Palazzi)

RACE 10 -- CHURCHILL DOWNS STAKES -- GI -- $500K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

9 -- WHITMORE

1 -- PHAT MAN

2 -- MIND CONTROL

5 -- TAP IT TO WIN 

(If scratches occur:  4 -- Flagstaff) 

RACE 11 -- TURF CLASSIC -- GI -- $500K -- 1-1/8TH MILE (TURF) 

3 -- COLONEL LIAM

8 -- CROSS BORDER

5 -- DOMESTIC SPENDING

7 -- SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT

(If scratches occur:   4 -- Ivar) 

RACE 12 -- KENTUCKY DERBY -- GI --$3 MILLION -- 1-1/4TH MILES

14 -- ESSENTIAL QUALITY

17 -- HIGHLY MOTIVATED

9 -- HOT ROD CHARLIE

6 -- O BESOS

7 -- MANDALOUN 

THE PLAY

I'll stick with my usual, with a bit of a twist...I'll start with a .50 Pick 3 today (Races 6-8) and then go to a .50 Pick 4 (Races 9-12). If you're looking to "shorten up"" your ticket a bit, everyone seems to love GAMINE (#4) in Race 7. You could try a "single" there . Race 10 was, by far, the toughest for me to handicap on this card and I ended up leaving out #4 Flagstaff...I hope I don't regret it. 

A reader suggested that today's card was a great way to make money on trifecta boxes today, taking your top five picks, and doing a .50 trifecta box (cost: $30 per race). That's an option, and it'd cost $210 total today... for these seven races. Since a couple of these have seven or less runners, you might want to hold off on a five-horse tri box in them. This reader also likes Rock Your World in the Derby -- for what it's worth. 

As always, play 'em anyway you like and let's have a bountiful day! 

Pick 3 -- Races 6-8

3,4,5,6/1,2,3,4/3,7,8,12   Cost: $32

Pick 4  -- Race 9-12

1,2,4,13/ 1,2,5,9/3,5,7,8/ 6,7,9,14,17    Cost $160

Best of luck to you today !!! 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS RESULTS 4/30/21

 Yesterday was Oaks Day of Derby Week and the six stakes races on the card were my focus.

Not a bad day, overall.  I had five of the six winners, three places and a show out of my 24 picks.  That's a 37.5% "in the money" number.  I filled nine of th 18 possible "payout" spots for a 50% success rate. We'll try to do better than that today, and I'll have those Derby Day Picks up later this morning. Let's review the Friday. 

RACE 6 -- I had the top two finishers in the Alysheba, MAXFIELD, AT 1/2 , and VISITANT for second. That exacta got you $22.60. 

RACE 7 -- GIFT LIST pulled the upset of AUNT PEARL and I had him in my picks. A nice 4-1 payout on the winner of the Edgewood. 

RACE 8 -- In the LaTroienne, it was the favorite SHEDARESTHE DEVIL getting to the finish line first at 8-5 odds. I had that one and the third-place finisher FINITE in my selections. That Pick 3 paid $21.55 on the .50 cent wager. 

RACE 9 -- Longshot OBILGATORY hit the line first at 16-1 odds. I didn't have that one, just the second place finisher, DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE in the Eight Belles. 

RACE 10 -- FIRST BOAT got it done in the Turf Sprint at 4-1 odds with a exciting stretch run. I had that one in my picks. 

RACE 11 -- The Kentucky Oaks went to favorite MALATHAAT (5/2) and I had her and second place finisher SEARCH RESULTS as well.  My picks ran first, second, fourth and fifth in the OAKS -- just barely (by a nose) missing the superfecta.    The Pick 4 (Races 8-11) returned $384.50 on the .50 cent wager. 

                                    **********************************************

I'LL BE BACK LATER THIS MORNING WITH MY DERBY SELECTIONS. SEVEN STAKES RACES ON TAP FOR DERBY DAY, WE'LL LOOK AT THEM ALL !!

paulie