DERBY DAY PICKS -- CHURCHILL DOWNS -- 5/1/21

 HAPPY DERBY TO ALL !!!!

It's a great card this Kentucky Derby Day and there are seven GREAT stakes races ahead, on a full card today at Churchill. So, get your Mint Julep, a comfy chair and get ready for eight plus hours of running at the Twin Spires. 

RACE 6 -- TURF MILE -- GII -- $500K -- ONE MILE (TURF) 

6 -- BLOWOUT

5 -- GOT STORMY

3 -- NEW YORK GIRL 

4 -- ZOFELLE

(If scratches occur:  2 -- She's Got You) 

RACE 7 -- DERBY CITY DISTAFF -- GI -- $500K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

4 -- GAMINE

3 -- BELL'S THE ONE

2 -- SCONSIN

1 -- ESTILO TALENTO

(If scratches occur:  5 -- Hibiscus Punch)

RACE 8 -- PAT DAY MILE -- GII -- $500K -- ONE MILE

8 -- DREAM SHAKE

3 -- JACKIE'S WARRIOR

7 -- WHISKEY DOUBLE

12 -- JOE FRAZIER

(If scratches occur:  6 -- Starrinmydreams) 

RACE 9 -- AMERICAN TURF -- GII -- $500K -- 1-/16TH MILE (TURF) 

4 -- ANNEX

13 -- SCARLETT SKY

2 -- WINFROMWITHIN

1 -- EXCELLENT TIMING

(If scratches occur:  14 -- Palazzi)

RACE 10 -- CHURCHILL DOWNS STAKES -- GI -- $500K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

9 -- WHITMORE

1 -- PHAT MAN

2 -- MIND CONTROL

5 -- TAP IT TO WIN 

(If scratches occur:  4 -- Flagstaff) 

RACE 11 -- TURF CLASSIC -- GI -- $500K -- 1-1/8TH MILE (TURF) 

3 -- COLONEL LIAM

8 -- CROSS BORDER

5 -- DOMESTIC SPENDING

7 -- SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT

(If scratches occur:   4 -- Ivar) 

RACE 12 -- KENTUCKY DERBY -- GI --$3 MILLION -- 1-1/4TH MILES

14 -- ESSENTIAL QUALITY

17 -- HIGHLY MOTIVATED

9 -- HOT ROD CHARLIE

6 -- O BESOS

7 -- MANDALOUN 

THE PLAY

I'll stick with my usual, with a bit of a twist...I'll start with a .50 Pick 3 today (Races 6-8) and then go to a .50 Pick 4 (Races 9-12). If you're looking to "shorten up"" your ticket a bit, everyone seems to love GAMINE (#4) in Race 7. You could try a "single" there . Race 10 was, by far, the toughest for me to handicap on this card and I ended up leaving out #4 Flagstaff...I hope I don't regret it. 

A reader suggested that today's card was a great way to make money on trifecta boxes today, taking your top five picks, and doing a .50 trifecta box (cost: $30 per race). That's an option, and it'd cost $210 total today... for these seven races. Since a couple of these have seven or less runners, you might want to hold off on a five-horse tri box in them. This reader also likes Rock Your World in the Derby -- for what it's worth. 

As always, play 'em anyway you like and let's have a bountiful day! 

Pick 3 -- Races 6-8

3,4,5,6/1,2,3,4/3,7,8,12   Cost: $32

Pick 4  -- Race 9-12

1,2,4,13/ 1,2,5,9/3,5,7,8/ 6,7,9,14,17    Cost $160

Best of luck to you today !!! 

paulie