Well, ol' Bob Baffert laid low all week and, Medina Spirit proved to be the best in the Kentucky Derby. I didn't see it happening and, at 12-1, not many others did either. Congrats to him and Johnny V.
On the day, I handicapped the seven stakes races and gave out 30 horses total that I liked. I had six winners, five seconds and six thirds. That's a 56% "in the money" percentage. I filled 17 of the 21 "money sports" available -- for a 81% success rate. Let's break it down by race:
RACE 6 -- BLOWOUT (9/5) was my top pick and got it done in the Turf Mile. I also had second with NEW YORK GIRL and third with ZOFELLE. Exacta and trifecta here.
RACE 7 -- GAMINE (1/5) was spectacular in her win in the Derby City Distaff, despite not seeming to like the surface at Churchill. I also had SCONSIN for second and ESTILO TALENTO for third. Exacta and trifecta again.
RACE 8 -- JACKIE'S WARRIOR (2-1) took the Pat Day Mile. I gave you him, second place DREAM SHAKE and third place WHISKEY DOUBLE. Another exacta, trifecta and the Pick 3.
RACE 9 -- DUJOUR (5/1) gave Baffert a stakes win in the Turf Stakes. I did not have him....just third place finisher WINFROMWITHIN in my picks.
RACE 10 -- FLAGSTAFF (9/2) was one of my picks in the Churchill Downs Stakes, along with WHITMORE for show.
RACE 11 -- The Turf Classic ended up a dead heat between two of my picks -- COLONEL LIAM (3-1) and DOMESTIC SPENDING (9/2) . I also had SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT, who got third. Exacta (twice) and trifecta (twice).
RACE 12 -- Credit to Medina Spirit who took the Derby in front-running fashion. I ran second with my pick MANDALOUN and third with HOT ROD CHARLIE. ESSENTIAL QUALITY ran fourth and O BESOS fifth, two more of my picks. The running time of 2:01:02 wasn't particularly impressive, but it was good enough to win. The Pick 4 (5/4/3,5/8) paid $708 on the .50 cent wager.
So, it goes.
I had one stroke of good fortune in the exotics by hitting the Oaks/Forester Turf Stakes/Derby Pick 3. Quite by luck...a $150 wager got me back $436...that helped a bit, but, I went six deep in the Derby leg of that bet and just tossed Medina Spirit in "for fun, for Baffert and Johnny V."
I ended up losing money on the day, despite the early luck I had in my picks. That early confidence and success in my picks caused me to think I was invincible, and, the horses showed me I was not. I wonder how that mattress guy from Houstton feels this morning -- after tossing millions at Essential Quality.
Still, six winners in seven races isn't exactly "el-stinko" I figured that a $2 WPS wager on all 30 of my picks would have cost $180. You would have got back $171.30...The seven trifectas I tried cost $210 in all. They returned $159.
I have a buddy who puts $2 to win on all the horses in the Derby every year. Of course, he loved it when Country House got the "W" in 2019, but this year he lost $12.
We can pick winners all day, we just can't pick what we will get paid for them.
We'll give it a go next Saturday.
paulie
As I mentioned yesterday I was highly invested in Essential Quality and Highly Motivated. At the last minute I decided to take a shot at Mandaloun solely because his odds seemed way out of line. Bet him to win and used him top and bottom in exactas with six others, including the winner. Those last-minute decisions never seem to work out for me but this one did.
ReplyDelete