CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTIONS -- 5/29/21

 

A great day of Saturday racing at Churchill Downs this Memorial Day weekend, with seven stakes races at the Twin Spires (races 5-11). Mostly distance races, both turf and dirt and two Grade III's in the mix. 

Let's "give it a go" and get to it !!  

RACE 5 -- AUDUBON STAKES -- $150K -- 1-1/8TH MILE (TURF) 

8 --ROYAL PRINCE

2 -- LIKE THE KING

1 -- PALAZZI

4 -- HIDDEN ENEMY 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 6 -- CELLIST) 

RACE 6 -- BLAME STAKES -- $150K -- 1-1/8TH MILE

2 -- SPRAWL

5 -- AMERICAN DERBY

7 -- SILVER DUST (Scratched)

4 -- NIGHT OPS 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR /ALSO CONSIDER -- 6 -- SOUTH BEND)

****LATE ADD DUE TO LATE SCRATCH -- 1 -- MIGHTY HEART)****  

RACE 7 -- SHAWNEE STAKES -- 1-1/16TH MILE

7 -- ENVOUTANTE

8 -- PARIS LIGHTS 

6 -- GOODBYE EAARL 

1 -- MICROCAP

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 4 -- MISS BIGLY) 

RACE 8 -- REGRET STAKES -- GRADE III -- $150K -- 1-1/8TH MILE (TURF) 

5 -- BARISTA

8 -- FLOWN

4 -- SPANISH LOVE AFFAIR

7 -- GAM'S MISSION 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 3 -- LINE DANCING) 

RACE 9 -- MATT WINN STAKES -- GIII -- 1-1/16TH MILE

3 -- O BESOS

2 -- HELIUM

5 -- FULSOME

8 -- GAME DAY PLAN 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 1 -- READY TO POUNCE) 

RACE 10 -- ARISTIDES STAKES -- $150K -- SIX FURLONGS 

5 -- EMPIRE OF GOLD

10 -- TAP IT TO WIN 

1 -- HAUNT 

2 -- TOUGH LOVE 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 3 -- BANGO) 

RACE 11 -- DOUGLAS PARK STAKES -- $110K -- 1-1/6TH MILE (TURF) 

8 -- SET PIECE

4 -- RAMSEY'S SOLUTION 

9 -- GRAY'S FABLE

2 -- ANOTHER MYSTERY 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 3 -- PARLOR) 

(I'LL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SCRATCHES AND COME IN & UPDATE AS BEST I CAN.)

THE PLAY

There are two Pick 4 's in this sequence (races 5-8 and races 8-11) so you might want to look at those. You could also look at rolling Pick 3's -- there are five of those available. 

On the Pick 4's,...in the first one, a suggestion is go five deep in races 5 -6, then shorten up to two horses (7,8) in race 7, and go back to five deep in race 8. It's a $125 Pick 4. (Prices based on a .50 cent Pick 4)

In the second Pick 4...start race 8 five deep, then drop to three horses (2.3.5) in race 9, and then go five deep in races 10 and 11. That'll run you $187.50. (Prices based on a .50 Pick 4).

If you go the pick 3 route, you can do a five-horse, .50 cent Pick 3 for $62.50. You've got five chances here...

Trifecta boxes are always popular. A .50 cent tri-box in each each with my top five picks will cost you $30 per race and you have seven chances of success there. 

Keep in mind that TYLER GAFFALIONE is leading the jockeys at Churchill with wins, he's hitting at a 22% win rate. He has 26 wins, 19 places and 26 shows in 118 mounts. That's a 61% "in the money" percentage !  He's got rides in six of the seven stakes races (not in race 9) -- and in 10 of the 11 races on today's card. Playing him "across the board" in all ten races would cost you $60 for the day -- based on a $2 wager) -- it'd be interesting to see if you can make a profit this way...

However you decide to go...good luck to you today and enjoy this excellent card @ Churchill

Bet 'em anyway you like and get some wins ! 

paulie