CHURCHILL PICKS -- 6/18/22

Night racing tonight at the Twin Spires, which is probably a good thing, given the excessive heat we've had lately that cancelled Wednesday and Thursday Racing.  

Average fields tonight in the final four races --  but pretty evenly matched == so it could be a "big price" night. 

Here's what I got in Races 8-11. 

RACE 8

6 -- CONSPIRACY FACT 

3 -- WARRIOR JOHNY

1 -- CURLIN'S MALIBU

5 -- ACTIVE DUTY

RACE 9 

5 -- LORD DRAGON

9 -- PALACE COUP

1 -- CHANTRY FLATS

4 -- FROSTED GRACE

RACE 10 

9 -- TARABI

7 -- FAMED

2 -- ONTHEONESAND TWOS

4 -- CANCEL THIS

RACE 11 

10 -- LADY PELE

6 -- REPEALING

7 -- CLASSIC COYNE

6 -- ROYAL FLOWER

I'll keep an "eye out" for scratches and update as a can, 

JUST A NOTE FOR NEXT WEEK (6/25/22):

There will be no Paulie Picks next Saturday. My schedule has me busy all day. I hope to return to posting Paulie's Picks on July 2nd (7/2/22)

Good luck today,

paulie

PROFIT/LOSS -- CHURCHILL PICKS 6/12/22

 

I didn't do as well on the Belmont wagering and picks as I hoped. Out of the 16 horses I put out there to consider, I had three winners, three seconds and two thirds. That's a 50% "in the money" percentage. The big downfall was Race 10, where Tribhuvan (at 19-1) won . I had him as my "if scratches occur" pick -- which mens, basically, I thought he was the fifth best horse in the race. No one scratched in the race, though, so I didn't use him in any exotics or vertical wagers. I figured he's try to set the pace, but didn't think he could maintain it the entire race. Channel Maker, who I expected to go with him, stumbled out of the gate and didn't. 

Such is the life of wagering. 

I looked at my last 30 days of wagering, and found these results:

-- 45 wagers

-- 42.5 win % on wagers

--  $1516 wagered 

--  $3077 payoff

-- $1561 profit

Onward, and upward.

Here's what I like at Churchill today: 

--   Race 2:   I'll play #2 WICKED HALO to beat #5 PRETTY BIRDIE.  Straight out $50 win bet

-    Let's also try an early Pick 5 --- it's a .50 cent wager. 

RACE 1 -- 1.3.4.7

RACE 2 -- 2,5

RACE 3 -- 1,2,3,6

RACE 4 -- 5,6,7,9

RACE 5 -- 1.3.5.6

Cost  $128

Good luck!

paulie

BELMONT PICKS -- 6/11/22

 Let's take our Saturday handicapping and wagering to New York today -- to the site of the third jewel of the Triple Crown...Belmont Park and the Belmont Stakes. 

Nine stakes races on the card today up there, I took interest in the four leading to and including the Belmont Stakes. (races 8-11). All four are Grade I races, so, needless to say, these are very good runners at the track today. 

RACE 8 -- JAIPUR STAKES

5 -- ARREST ME RED

4 -- CASA CREED

8 -- SCUTTLEBUZZ

13 -- GREGORIAN CHANT

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 12 -- GEAR JOCKEY)

RACE 9 --   METROPOLITAN HANDICAP 

1 -- FLIGHTLINE

2 -- SPEAKER'S CORNER

4 -- HAPPY SAVER

3 -- ALOHA WEST

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- INFORMATIVE )

RACE 10 -- MANHATTAN STAKES

9 -- SANTIN

10 -- CHANNEL MAKER

2 -- GUFO

8 -- HIGHLAND CHIEF

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 7 -- TRIBHUVAN )

RACE 11 -- BELMONT STAKES

6 -- MO DONEGAL

1 -- WE THE PROPLE

4 -- RICH STRIKE

3 -- NEST

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- CREATIVE MINISTER )

OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 

RACE 3 -- (4) MATAREYA AND (5) EDHO ZULU THE TWO TO BEAT.

RACE 4 -- I'LL TAKE (3) SPEAK OF THE DEVIL OVER (2) REGAL GLORY

RACE 5 -- (5) FIRST CONSTITUTION ALWAYS RUNS WELL AT BELMONT

RACE 6 -- WHO BEATS (1) JACK CHRISTOPHER? 

RACE 7 -- TOUGH... BUT (1) LETRUSKA IS MY PICK. JOSE ORTIZ 7 FOR 8 ON HER

Good luck today!  

paulie

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 6/4/22

 A nice day of racing lined up at Churchill today with (6) stakes races on the 11-race card. 

We'll look at all (6) stakes races, that start on Race 5 (The Regret) and then roll through Races 7-11.  My availability to jump in and update scratches today will be limited....so...

Like last week, I'm listing my top four picks and then an alternative pick, in case there is a scratch. Weather today is rain-free, though, and mid-80's temperatures. Central Avenue will be busy today -- with NCA Regional baseball going on at Jim Patterson Stadium. The Louisville game (vs. Michigan) is at 4 p.m. 

RACE 5 -- REGRET STAKES

3 -- MCKULICK

2 -- BESIDE HERSELF

1 -- WALKATHON

6 -- CANDY RAID

(4 -- KNEESANDHIPS -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

RACE 7 --  SHAWNEE STAKES 

5 -- PAULINE'S PEARL

3 -- AVA'S GRACE

6 -- CRAZY BEAUTIFUL  {scratched)

4  -- ARMY WIFE

(2 -- SHE'S ALL WOLFE -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

RACE 8 -- ARLINGTON STAKES

5 -- FIELD PASS

1 -- ADMISSIONS OFFICE

4 -- GET SMOKIN

6 -- GRAY'S FABLE

(2 -- FLORIFORM -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

RACE 9 -- ARISTIDES STAKES

5 -- BOB'S EDGE

6 -- TOP GUNNER

8 -- LONG RANGE TODDY

2 -- MILES AHEAD

( 4 -- NECKER ISLAND -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR) 

RACE 10 -- BLAME STAKES

6 -- SCALDING

8 -- AMERICAN REVOLUTION

3 -- TITLE READY (scratched)

1 -- PROXY

5 -- DYNAMIC ONE -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

RACE 11 -- AUDUBON STAKES

8 -- SUMMER ANTHEM

2  -- GRAND SONATA

7 -- SMOKIN T

11 -- MAJOR GENERAL

( 6 -- RED RUN -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR) 

Bet 'em any way you like and GOOD LUCK today !!

paulie