PROFIT/LOSS -- CHURCHILL PICKS 6/12/22

 

I didn't do as well on the Belmont wagering and picks as I hoped. Out of the 16 horses I put out there to consider, I had three winners, three seconds and two thirds. That's a 50% "in the money" percentage. The big downfall was Race 10, where Tribhuvan (at 19-1) won . I had him as my "if scratches occur" pick -- which mens, basically, I thought he was the fifth best horse in the race. No one scratched in the race, though, so I didn't use him in any exotics or vertical wagers. I figured he's try to set the pace, but didn't think he could maintain it the entire race. Channel Maker, who I expected to go with him, stumbled out of the gate and didn't. 

Such is the life of wagering. 

I looked at my last 30 days of wagering, and found these results:

-- 45 wagers

-- 42.5 win % on wagers

--  $1516 wagered 

--  $3077 payoff

-- $1561 profit

Onward, and upward.

Here's what I like at Churchill today: 

--   Race 2:   I'll play #2 WICKED HALO to beat #5 PRETTY BIRDIE.  Straight out $50 win bet

-    Let's also try an early Pick 5 --- it's a .50 cent wager. 

RACE 1 -- 1.3.4.7

RACE 2 -- 2,5

RACE 3 -- 1,2,3,6

RACE 4 -- 5,6,7,9

RACE 5 -- 1.3.5.6

Cost  $128

Good luck!

paulie

BELMONT PICKS -- 6/11/22

 Let's take our Saturday handicapping and wagering to New York today -- to the site of the third jewel of the Triple Crown...Belmont Park and the Belmont Stakes. 

Nine stakes races on the card today up there, I took interest in the four leading to and including the Belmont Stakes. (races 8-11). All four are Grade I races, so, needless to say, these are very good runners at the track today. 

RACE 8 -- JAIPUR STAKES

5 -- ARREST ME RED

4 -- CASA CREED

8 -- SCUTTLEBUZZ

13 -- GREGORIAN CHANT

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 12 -- GEAR JOCKEY)

RACE 9 --   METROPOLITAN HANDICAP 

1 -- FLIGHTLINE

2 -- SPEAKER'S CORNER

4 -- HAPPY SAVER

3 -- ALOHA WEST

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- INFORMATIVE )

RACE 10 -- MANHATTAN STAKES

9 -- SANTIN

10 -- CHANNEL MAKER

2 -- GUFO

8 -- HIGHLAND CHIEF

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 7 -- TRIBHUVAN )

RACE 11 -- BELMONT STAKES

6 -- MO DONEGAL

1 -- WE THE PROPLE

4 -- RICH STRIKE

3 -- NEST

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- CREATIVE MINISTER )

OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 

RACE 3 -- (4) MATAREYA AND (5) EDHO ZULU THE TWO TO BEAT.

RACE 4 -- I'LL TAKE (3) SPEAK OF THE DEVIL OVER (2) REGAL GLORY

RACE 5 -- (5) FIRST CONSTITUTION ALWAYS RUNS WELL AT BELMONT

RACE 6 -- WHO BEATS (1) JACK CHRISTOPHER? 

RACE 7 -- TOUGH... BUT (1) LETRUSKA IS MY PICK. JOSE ORTIZ 7 FOR 8 ON HER

Good luck today!  

paulie

BELMONT RESULTS -- 6/5/21

 A tough assignment yesterday, taking on the Pick 5 on Belmont Stakes Day that ran from Races 7-11. But I came through it pretty well. Despite a few key scratches, I ended up with 22 horses for you to consider in the five races. Out of those, I had four winners, four seconds, and three thirds. That's a 50% "in the money" percentage. When you consider there were 15 "payable spots" available and I filled 11 of them, that's a 74% success rate

 Let's take a look:  

RACE 7 -- Losing my top two pick (Valiance and Swiss Skydiver) to scratches was a bit of a blow, but my remaining three horses ended up running 1-2 3. LETRUSKA (6/5) hit the wire first, followed by  BONNY SOUTH and SHEDARESTHEDEVIL got up for show. 

RACE 8 -- This race was the only blemish on the day for me. I didn't have 7-1 winner ALTHIQA, who nudged out my pick SUMMER ROMANCE, who finished second. The scratch of probable favorite BLOWOUT was disappointing, but it was a good race to watch.

RACE 9 -- Everyone figured this was KNICKS GO as a single, but he finished out of the money. I had winner SILVER STATE (5-1), selected BY MY STANDARDS, who got second and also had MISCHEVIOUS ALEX, who rounded out the trifecta. 

RACE 10 -- DOMESTIC SPENDING was the 3/2 favorite and looked like it in the Manhattan Stakes. I had that one, plus GUFO for third. At least the Pick 3 I started in Race 9 was still alive. 

THE BELMONT STAKES -- RACE 11 -- I spent a lot of time trying to make a case for someone beating ESSENTIAL QUALITY in my handicapping studies yesterday, but it all came back to him winning. And he did at 6/5 odds. It was a thrilling stretch duel with HOT ROD CHARLIE down the stretch, I had him for second and thaat's where he ended up. ROMBAUER just couldn't catch the top two in that long, long Belmont Park stretch but held on for third, as I predicted. I even had KNOWN AGENDA correctly selected for fourth. 

That final race in my sequence gave me a double worth (on the $1 dollar wager) $32.80, a trifecta that paid $132 and a superfecta that returned $1871. I also hit the Pick 3 (Race 9-11) -- worth $114 on the .50 cent box.  That $122.50 total that I wagered in the final three races ended up being worth $2062, and that more than covered any earlier expenses.

 What's even more amazing is I did it with my top four picks in Races 9-11, not digging in to my "also consider or if scratches occur" selections. 

Sometimes, the odds-on favorite just doesn't fire, nothing is guaranteed in horse racing.... (except that someone's horse will eventually win the race).. 

I did not hit the Pick 5 in races 7-11 -- it paid $660.50 on the .50 cent wager.. Even if I had played all 22 horses I gave you and spend the $750 to wager it, I still would have lost because of Race 8. 

I don't normally do well with the New York tracks as I do in Kentucky or Florida. Especially at Belmont, and that jockey colony up there. I feel bad for Irad Ortiz, Jr not being able to ride, but it just may have helped me yesterday. That close colony of jockeys up there didn't sweep the day -- Jose Ortiz did took the 7th Race, but Mike Smith was on the winner of the 8th Race.  Ricardo Santana captured Race 9, it was Flavian Prat taking Race 10. Luis Saez was on Essential Quality in Race 11.

We'll "give it a go" next Saturday with a return to Churchill. 

paulie

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