CHURCHILL SELECTIONS -- 10/31/20

 Happy Halloween to all you ghouls and goblins out there. It should be a spooky and frightening card out at Churchill today -- no stakes races -- but Race 9 has a lot of occasional stakes runners and is a high level optional claiming affair. There's also two challenging  maiden affairs to handicap on the late card and another optional claiming -- so we do have a lot of treats in store for us. I'm not going under any ladders and I'm avoiding the black cats, but I did hit the Thursday and Friday Late Pick 4's -- so...I ain't afraid of no horses and look to bust the track up again today! Where's that rabbit foot?

RACE 7 -- OPT. CLM 89K -- 1-3/8TH MILES (TURF)

1 -- BOURBON IN MAY

8 -- VALUE ENGINEERING

2 -- KINENOS

9 -- COUNTER OFFER

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 6 - PHANTON CURRENCY)

RACE 8 -- MAIDEN 85K -- SIX FURLONGS

4 -- EASY TO BLESS

8 -- AMUSING ANTICS

10 -- MILANA

7 -- TAGSEEMAAT

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 6 - HAPPY SUNRISE) 

RACE 9 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- 100K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

9 -- ENDORSED

8 -- CAPTIVATING MOON

2 -- FACT FINDING

8 -- RATED R SUPERSTAR

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 10 -- BOURBON CALLING)

RACE 10 -- MAIDEN CLAIMING -- 50K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF) 

3 -- TELLER TO SING

8 -- KISS MO

10 -- BETTER WITH AGE

4 -- A KITTEN FOR KATIE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 11 - LACROIX VALMER) 

Next week is Breeders Cup and I'll be back with FRIDAY and SATURDAY picks for you at Keeneland.

paulie

  

KEENELAND RESULTS 10/24/20

 Closing day at Keeneland, or at least until Breeders Cup in a couple of weeks there. I gave you 16 horses to consider yesterday and out of those I had two winners, two places and two show runners. 38% "in the money: -- one of the lowest percentages I've had in a while.  I did cover six of the 12 payable spots

Admittedly, my handicapping was a bit off and I attribute a lot of that to playing "big name" jockeys yesterday. That plan went awry when Samy Camacho got the win in Race 7 and James Graham took first in Race 9. 

My Pick 4, therefore, did not hit. If you nailed it, you got a nice $588.80 on the .50 cent wager. 

That's the way it goes sometimes, you study, plan and the horses prove you wrong. 

Have a Super Sunday and we'll see you at Churchill next week.

paulie

KEENELAND SELECTIONS -- 10/24

 It's the final day of the meet at Keeneland, so let's get ready for Churchill by building up a little bankroll ! The rain should be gone, but the turf could be a mess, so be forewarned...

RACE 7 -- ALLOWANCE 71K -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF)

2 -- FOOCH

8 -- AMERICAN MANDATE

9 -- MUNN PASSAGE

8 -- SHARED LEGACY

(IF SCRATCHES OCCCUR: 6 -- PHAST PHAROAH, 7 -- NETTLETON)

RACE 8 -- MAIDEN 70K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

8 -- ANTIGRAVITY

4 -- MUNQAD

5 -- HIDDEN STA5H

9 -- JOE MAN JOE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 2 -- CALL PAPA,  7 -- MCDOWELL)

RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE 75K -- 1 MILE (TURF)

2 -- IN GOOD SPIRITS

7 -- LUCKY JINGLE

8 -- FACCIO IO

9  -- KOURVOISIER

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 12 --MIZZEN BEAU, 3 -- ASK BAILEY)

RACE 10 -- MAIDEN 70K -- SIX FURLONGS

7 -- MANDALOUN

9 -- MIDNIGHT WARSHIP

10 -- ROCKSTAR RO

1 -- PLUCKY STRIKE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 6 -- DEVIL'S FIRE, 2 -- NAME REJECTED)

Good luck! 

paulie 

KEENELAND RESULTS -- 10-17-20

 Not a bad day handicapping the horses at Keeneland yesterday. I gave you 16 horses to consider yesterday in the final four races (7-10) and an additional eight in case of scratches. There were scratches, including one I really loved a lot in DON'T BLAMEROCKET in the 8th Race, but...20 of my picks ran and I had three out of the four winners in the final sequence of races. 

Three winners, four seconds and two thirds for a 45% "in the money" percentage. I filled nine of the 12 payable lots for 66%.

Add in three exactas and two trifectas I hit, including the final two trifectas that paid $104.75 and $177.75 on the .50 cent venture. 

It always seems that one race "blows up" at Keeneland in the final sequence and that happened in the eighth race yesterday 

SUGOI was spoiler of the day in my selections, taking Race 8 at 23-1 odds with Joe Rocco getting the win. In the others, I gave you THINKING in Race 7 at 4-1, odds-on favorite VENETIAN HARBOR, at 3-5 odds in Race 8 and MONEY FOR MISCHIEF in Race 10 who went off at 12-1. 

I didn't attempt the Pick 4 wager, wouldn't have hit it if I had... but it did pay $4991.25 on the .50 cent wager. When I looked at the possibilities of betting it, and with my top pick gone in Race 8, I did the numbers on a 6x(all) x 4 x6 wager and it would have cost $648 !! Nope, no thank you..but it did pay much more than that.  

As we get closer to Breeders Cup, the racing continues at Keeneland and we'll try again next week. 

paulie

KEENELAND SELECTIONS -- 10/17/20

 Fall racing at Keeneland today and it looks like a beautiful day for it. The final four races of the day offer a wide variety of classifications -- a maiden special weight, allowance, Grade II and claimer. Let's get to it!

RACE 7 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- 70K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

11 -- THINKING

7 -- BEL FIORE

10 -- WICKED BISOU

3 -- THREE TIPSY CHIX

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

2 -- HIPPIE COWGIRL

12 -- MINER'S QUEEN

RACE 8 -- ALLOWANCE 75 K -- 1-1/8TH MILE -- (TURF) 

2 -- DONTBLAMEROCKET

7 -- CORELLI

9 -- HIERARCHY

1 -- RITZY AP 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR) 

4 -- MIDNIGHT TEA TIME

10 -- TEMPLE

RACE 9 -- RAVEN RUN STAKES -- GRADE II -- 200K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

5 -- VENETIAN HARBOR

2 - -FOUR GRACES

8 -- FAIR MAIDEN

9 -- GRAND CRU CLASSIC

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR) 

6 -- REAGAN'S EDGE

4 -- FINITE

RACE 10 -- CLAIMING 20K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

2 -- QUARTERBACK DAK 

8 -- DRINK 

9 -- EL SUPREMO 

3 -- MONEY FOR MISCHIEF

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR) 

4 -- TIZ MCNAMARA

1 -- WHY WHY PAUL WHY 

Good luck today on the card! As a bonus, in Race 3 -- KIFFLE returns to the track today after her impressive romp at Gulfstream back in April. New trainer but Gaffalione back in the saddle. I put her in my "horses to watch" stable back then and she should romp this rather weak optional claiming field. You may not get much of a price on her, but the works up to today's race look outstanding and if she returns to her last race form, look out. 

paulie

KEENELAND RESULTS -- 10-10-20

 An interesting day of racing yesterday at Keeneland. The rain never showed up that I had handicapped for , but....out of the 20 horses I gave you, I had three winners, three seconds and two thirds. That's a 40% "in the money" percentage, which is a little lower that I normally hit for. I filled eight of the 12 possible "payout" sports available. 

I've always handicapped races differently when I expect the track to go "sloppy" and the turf wet. That's what I did yesterday, but, mother nature had different ideas....keeping it dry.

In RACE 7, we saw one of my picks ROC'S PRINCESS take them from gate to wire to win at a very nice 19-1 odds. That was a nice start to the Pick 3 and Pick 4.

RACE 8 was the Fayette and MR FREEZE get the win. He wsn't one of my original top four picks, but I moved him up and used him when scratches occured in the race. The winner went off at 3/2 odds. 

The Queen Elizabeth Cup in RACE 10 went to HARVEY'S LIL GOIL who pulled away in the turf stretch and won at 7/2 odds. She helped me hit the Pick 3 for Races 7,8,9 that paid a nice $141.60 on the .50 cent wager. 

RACE 11 was a major upset with a 29-1 shot (CRITICAL THREAT) getting a perfectly timed ride from Martin Garcia to come storming down the stretch and nosing out my picks, who ran second and third.

If you played the Pick 4 and managed to hit it, you were rewarded with $4681 on a .50 attempt. 

I'll give it a go next Saturday. .  

KEENELAND SELECTIONS -- 10-10-20

On what looks to be a rainy day later this afternoon at Keeneland, I'll try the final four races at the historic Lexington track. A nice assortment of races -- with two stakes races, a challenging maiden special weight to kic k it off and a maiden claimer to end the card. 

With rain comes scratches, as we all know, so I've listed some "if scratches occur" under my top picks: 

RACE 7 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- 70K -- 6-1/S FURLONGS

9 -- ONE FAST ORB

8 -- TABOR HALL 

1 -- ROC'S PRINCESS

11 -- MAKING PROGRESS

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR: 6--SPITZ, 4-- BINGE WORTHY)

RACE 8 -- FAYETTE STAKES -- GRADE II -- 200K -- 1-1/8TH MILE

5 -- TITLE READY

8 -- TAX

2 -- CAPTIVATING MOON 

1 -- COASTAL DEFENSE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR: 3--CRAFTY DADDY, 6 -- MR FREEZE)

RACE 9 -- QE CUP -- GRADE I -- 500K -- 1-1/8TH MILE (TURF) 

1 -- HARVEY'S LIL GOIL

9 -- RED LARK

7 -- MICHELINE

2 -- SWEET MELANIA

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR: 4 -- MAGIC ATTITUDE, 6 -- HENDY WOODS)

RACE 10 -- MAIDEN CLAIMING -- 40K -- SIX FURLONGS

3 -- CAPLEY

5 --OUTLIER

8 -- KICK SOME TALE

2 -- LOVE MY JIMMY

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR: 1-- HILLBILLY, 7 -- ESCAPE ROUTE) 

GOOD LUCK TODAY AND BET 'EM ANYWAY YOU LIKE...

paulie

PREAKNESS RESULTS

 A pretty successful day of handicapping selections at Pimlico yesterday for Preakness Stakes Day. I took on nine of the races on the card (races 3-11) and offered 36 horses for you to consider. Out of those, I had seven winners, seven places and seven shows. That's a 58% "in the money" success rate. When you consider there were 27 "money" spots available, I cashed in on 78% of the win, place and show payouts. 

I also had six exactas and four trifectas hit for me in the nine races. I tried three Pick 3's in the nine race sequence and hit the final one...which rewarded me nicely with a $369.20 payout for races 9,10 and 11.  

I had two readers contact me with their results. One of them did a simple four-horse trifecta box on all 11 races that cost her $216. She got back $244, so that a profitable afternoon. The other reader played just the Preakness Stakes, He took my top four picks in the win and place slots and hit the "all" button for show. It was a .50 cent wager that cost him $60. He got back a huge $602.85 payout...no doubt boosted by 40-1 shot Jesus' Team finishing third and 11-1 Swiss Skydiver nosing out the heavy favorite Authentic for the win. The funny thing is, he didn't even watch the race...having to work...and didn't realize how much he made until hours later. 

We'll migrate back to Keeneland next week. I was looking at today's Sunday card just briefly this morning and it looks very competitive. At first glance, I like #1 Love Struck and #7 Batyah in the Miss Grillo Stakes and #4 Into The Sunrise and #11 Barrister Tom in the Bourbon Stakes. 

paulie

PREAKNESS DAY

 And so we head to the third leg of the upside down Triple Crown of Horse Racing. Pimlico has a great card of stakes racing and I've decided to go there with the picks today. Nine races handicapped for you, starting with Race 3 and ending with the Preakness Stakes. 

If scratches occur, I'll try to update the picks as needed...

RACE 3 -- SKIPAT STAKES -- $100K -- SIX FURLONGS

4 -- LIZA STAR

6 -- BROWN BEAAUTY

3 -- NEVER ENOUGH TIME

5 -- BYE BYE J

RACE 4 -- HILLTOP STAKES -- $100K -- 1 MILE (TURF) 

7 -- VIGILANTES WAY

4 -- CARAVEL

2 -- CHART

5 -- EVIL LYN

RACE 5 -- MISS PREAKNESS -- GRADE III -- $150K -- SIX FURLONGS

1 -- AIN'T NO ELMERS

5 -- MUNDAYE CALL

3 -- FLY ON ANGEL

4 -- SOUND MACHINE

RACE 6 -- DINNERR PARTY STAKES -- GRADE II -- $250K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF) 

7 -- FACTOR THIS

3 -- HEMBREE

2 -- SOME LIKE IT HOT BROWN

6 -- DOCTOR MOUNTY

RACE 7 -- DEFRANCIS MEMORIAL DASH -- GRADE III -- $200K -- SIX FURLONGS

5 -- LANDESKOG

4 -- LAKI 

1 -- ADMIRAL LYNCH

8 -- NITROUS

RACE 8 -- LAUREL FUTURITY STAKES -- $150K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF) 

8 -- HIDDEN ENEMY 

1 -- PIVOTAL MISSION

4 -- KIDNAPPED

10 -- NAUTILUS

RACE 9 -- MURPHY STAKES -- $100K -- ONE MILE (TURF) 

7 -- VANZZY

10 -- DON JUAN KITTEN

12 -- ANDESITE

13 -- BYE BYE MELVIN 

RACE 10 -- BLACK EYED SUSAN -- GRADE III -- $250K -- 1-1/8TH MILE

5 -- BONNY SOUTH

7 -- MIZEN BEAU 

9 -- MISS MARISSA

8 -- HOPEFUL GROWTH

RACE 11 -- THE PREAKNESS STAKES -- GRADE I -- $1 MILLION -- 1-3/16TH MILE

9 -- AUTHENTIC

3 -- ART COLLECTOR

4 -- SWISS SKYDIVER

8 -- MAX PLAYER

Good luck today and play 'em anyway you like! 

paulie