She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

Friday, May 20, 2022

PREAKNESS PICKS -- 5/21/22

Today we get the second leg of the triple crown -- The Preakness at Pimlico. 

With Rich Strike opting out, Epicenter deservedly gets the morning line favorite tag, but I do think he'll get a challenge from a few in here. The filly Secret Oath could challenge, Early Voting is getting a lot of backing and support and Creative Minister and Simplification wouldn't surprise too much, in my eyes, if they get the Black Eyed Susan garland. 

There is a nice Pick 4 that starts up there in Race 10 that ends with the Preakness and that's what I've handicapped for you today.

Good luck and I'll try to jump in if there are scratches or changes in my picks, 


RACE 10  JAMES W MURPHY STAKES -- 1 MILE (TURF)


10 -- JOE

5 -- READY TO PURRFORM

7 -- RIOT HOUSE  (scratched)

8 -- SHAKE EM LOOSE

2 -- LOCAL MOTIVE


RACE 11  SIR BARTON STAKES -- 1-1/16TH MILE (DIRT)


1 --ETHEREAL ROAD

5 -- B DAWG

8 -- UNIKEE

6 -- MR JEFFERSON


RACE 12 -- JIM MCKAY TURF SPRINT -- FIVE FURLONGS (TURF)


2 -- CAROTARI

7 -- GRATEFUL BRED

9 -- HOLLIS

3 -- SEVEN SECRETS


RACE 13 -- THE PREAKNESS -- 1-3/16TH MILES


8 -- EPICENTER

4 -- SECRET OATH

5 -- EARLY VOTING

6 -- CREATIVE MINISTER


As I always say, bet 'em however you like.  I fooled around with a few bets yesterday and favorites were getting routinely slaughtered in the final four on the card. 


paulie

Saturday, May 14, 2022

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 5/14/22

 Tonight is Downs After Dark at Churchill with a post time of 6 p.m.

We'll look at the late Pick 4, which starts in Race 8 


RACE 8 

6 -- QUICK TO BLAME

7 -- UNCLE BERLEY

2 -- MARVELOUSMOONDANCE

3 -- GRAPNEL


RACE 9 

5 -- TWILIGHT GLEAMING

2 -- MYSTIC EYES

3 -- MARGE'S KITCHEN

11 -- DEVINE CHARGER


RACE 10 

4 -- REMAIN ANONYMOUS

3 -- LIBERTY MD

5 -- GERRI B 

7 -- ALLWORTHY


RACE 11 

3 -- BEACHFRONT BID

2 -- SHE'S GONE

5 -- MY LILY MAE

8 -- PORONUI


Ill try to get back in with scratches tonight, 

GOOD LUCK abd olay 'em however you like


paulie

Friday, May 6, 2022

DERBY -- 5/7/22 -- SATURDAY CHURCHILL DOWNS


HAPPY DERBY DAY !!!


 Friday recap. On the 13 race card, I had 10 winners, 10 places and five shows. That's a 46% "in the money' number out of the total horses selected and 25 for 39 was a 64% filling of the payable spots. I'll take it !.

Betting wise, you know how I roll if you've followed the site. I play .50 Pick 4's with four horses in each leg. $128 per wager. I played four of them yesterday. Cost me $512. I got back a total of $1106. 

I'M NOT TRYING TO INFLUENCE YOU ON HOW TO BET, OF COURSE...but I get people ask me how I bet my picks, so...there it is. As I say, play 'em however you like. It's important to note that Friday's success doesn't mean I'll clean up on Saturday -- but, I had a profitable Keeneland meet and (so far) Churchill meet, and I'm "ahead for the year"  playing the Florida tracks and Oaklawn before they arrived in Kentucky...so why go changing? 


SATURDAY 


********UPDATED 8:15 AM*********

 

RACE 1

7 -- WARRIOR JONNY

10 - LOGICO

9 -- CONGRESSMAN

13 --  MONTOUK POINT 

NOTE: 14 -- GASOLINE DID GET IN THE RACE. I DID NOT FIGURE HE WOULD, BUT HE'LL FIGURE IN ANY WAGERING I MIGHT DO. NO PICK 4 HERE, THOUGH...FIRST ONE IS RACE 2. 


RACE 2 

4 -- SURFER DUDE

8 -- OSBOURNE

6 -- GREAT ESCAPE

2 -- STAYED IN FOR HALF


RACE 3

8 -- TALKING BOOK

7 -- FINAL BELLE

9 -- QUEEN BOURBON

3 -- LADY ROCKSTAR


RACE 4 

6 -- CREATIVE MINISTER

2 -- BYE BYE BOBBY

12 -- EMIRATES ROAD

1a -- VARATTI  (scratched) 

1 --  MCLAREN VALE


RACE 5

8 -- SPEAK OF THE DEVIL

5 -- WAKANAKA

6 -- LADY SPEIGHTSTOWN

7 -- IN ITALIAN


RACE 6 

2 -- SHARED SENSE

7 -- SOUTH BEND

4 -- DREAM SHAKE

10 -- MAJOR FED (scratched)

11 -- NECKER ISLAND


RACE 7

5 -- JACK CHRISTOPHER

11 -- MY PRANKSTER

1 -- MAJOR GENERAL

3 -- PAPPACAP


RACE 8 

2 -- JUST ONE TIME

4 -- KIMARI

6 -- BELL'S THE ONE

7 -- EDGEWAY


RACE 9

5 -- BAINIKHEV

7 -- SY DOG

2 -- MAIN EVENT

11 -- DOWAGIAC CHIEF

* I'll also add 9 -- STOLEN BASE -- into the mix. For all wagers. Got a tip on him*


RACE 10

1 -- ALPHA WEST

3 -- JACKIE'S WARRIOR

6 -- PREVALENCE

5 -- REINVESTMENT RISK


RACE 11

6 -- SHIRL'S SPEIGHT

8 -- ADHAMO

1 -- IVAR  (scratched)

4 -- TRIBHUVAN

5 -- MIRA MISSION


RACE 12  (DERBY)

3 -- EPICENTER

1 -- MO DONEGAL

10 -- ZANDON

5 -- SMILE HAPPY


RACE 13

9 -- MILITARIST

3 -- LIFE IS GOOD

11 -- LAUGHING BOY

7 -- STORM THE COURT


RACE 14

11 -- STROBE

12 -- BOURBON HEIST

6 -- MASTER OF ARMS

3 -- LUDWIG


I'll update Saturday morning with any scratches and/or changes. 

Play 'em however you like and Good Luck ! 


paulie




 






Thursday, May 5, 2022

OAKS -- 5/6/22 -- FRIDAY CHURCHILL DOWNS

 

( Thursday Recap -- Out of the 11 races I handicapped Thursday, I had six winners, seven places and seven shown.. That was a 20-44 (45%) "in the money" and I filled 20 out the 33 possible payout slots for 61% )


FRIDAY PICKS


RACE 1

3 -- IDIOMATIC

8 -- FANNY AND FREDDY

4 -- SEQUIST

2  -- IMOGENE MALVINA


RACE 2

11 -- INVENTING

8 -- BLAME THE CHAMPAGNE

10 -- MISREAD

3 -- SHE'S KEEN


RACE 3 

1 -- Q.F. SEVENTY FIVE

3 -- RED HORNET

4 -- MYOPIC

7 -- GRAEL


RACE 4 

7 -- JUJU'S MAP

5 -- SEMBLE JUSTE

8 -- ILLIOGAMI

3 -- POWDER RIVER


RACE 5 

8 -- BLEECKER STREET

7 -- CURLY RUTH

1 -- FLUFFY SOCKS

2 -- STAND TALL


RACE 6 

8 -- PAULINE'S PEARL

2 -- SHEDARESTHEDEVIL

4 -- BATTLE BLING

1 -- JILTED BRIDE


RACE 7 

1 -- MAX SAVER

3 -- OLYMPIAD

7 -- HAPPY SAVER

6 -- FULSOME


RACE 8 

5 -- DOLCE ZEL

10 -- DREAM LITH

8 -- SPICER

9 -- NEW YEAR'S EVE


RACE 9 

8 -- MATAREYA

3 -- MARISSA'S LADY

2 -- PRETTY BIRDIE

4 -- AIN'T EASY


RACE 10

11 -- JUST MIGHT

7 -- DIAMOND OOPS

10 -- ARREST ME RED

8 -- GEAR JOCKEY


RACE 11 (OAKS)

7 -- ECHO ZULU

10 -- KATHLEEN O

4 -- NEXT

1 -- SECRET OATH


RACE 12

9 -- WISH YOU WELL

4 -- SOCIETY

1 -- ONTHEONESANDTWOS

2 -- REAGAN'S DECISION


RACE 13

6 -- LITTLE BLAZE

7 -- FABULOUS FANNY

9 -- RATHER BE LUCKY

8 -- COLORFUL MISCHIEF


* It's supposed to be a wet Oaks Day, so I kept that in mind when handicapping.

* I'll try to keep up with scratches as best I can...and update the picks

* Play 'em anyway you like!


paulie


 

Thurby -- 5/5/22 -- Thursday Picks at Churchill

 

Welcome to Thurby !  

The Thursday races at Churchill Downs are commonly referred to "Louisville's Day at the Track" and an 11 race card is being offered today. 

If you go, you might want to consider a poncho. Rain is expected in the afternoon. 

I've handicapped the race and have all 11 races below. I'll jump back in later this morning with any scratches or chances, so be sure to check back


****************************************UPDATED 12:20 P.M.************************************* 


RACE 1

5 -- THE BOSS FACTOR

7 --  HIGH SPIRITS

8 -- YOUVESAIDITALL

3 -- HIGHER AUTHORITY


RACE 2 

1 -- EMPIRE OF MY OWN

6  -- DIVINE GRACE

4 -- DEVIOUS DAME

7 -- YOU CHOSE WISELY


RACE 3 

5 -- COVE BLUE

1 --RYE HUMOR    scratched

6 -- MUY CARO

9 -- DAVID'S GEM

2 -- ABUELO NUNO


RACE 4

6 -- BABY YODA

7 -- DIVINE LEADER

5 -- THE QUEENS JULES

3 -- WINDY CITY'RED


RACE 5 

4 -- ADVANCED PLACEMENT (scratched)

9 -- ENOUGH ALREADY

12 -- STICKY ISSUE

5 -- TWIRLING BLUES

8 -- FIELD MARSHALL



RACE 6 

4 -- BRONZE HALO

1 -- BIG BLUE LINE

7 -- DUAL THREAT

6 -- GUT FEELING  (scratched)

3 -- GROUP EIGHTEEN

RACE 7 

 4 -- DOWNTOWN ABBY

7 -- BELLE RUBELLE

2 -- SOCIAL DILEMNA

8 -- FLASHY CHARGE


RACE 8 

2 -- BEATBOX  (scratched)

5 -- MR DUMAS

9 -- GRAY'S FABLE

6 -- SET PIECE (scratched)

4 -- KENTUCKY GHOST    (scratched)

11 -- MAX K.O.

1 -- MONARCHS GLEN


RACE 9

1 -- TOM'S REGRET

11 -- HURRICANE DEBBIE

9 -- SIMPLY SUPER

3 -- KING ADCOCK


RACE 10

2 -- BROOKE MARIE

6 -- CATCH A BID

5 -- CHANGE OF CONTROL

7 -- GOIN GOOD


RACE 11 


5 -- SOMEBODY LOVES ME

10 -- TACHLIS

6 -- SWEET TRUFFLES

2 -- SHE'S GREEKANDSLEEK


Best of luck to you today !


paulie

Tuesday, May 3, 2022

Early Oaks and Derby Thoughts --Tuesday 5/3

 Now that the post positions have been assigned, let's take a look at the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby/

In the Oaks, I've liked three horses for awhile now, and that didn't change with the post assignment:


OAKS


10 -- Kathleen O  -- The Gulfstream Oaks win was impressive

7 -- Echo Zulu -- She showed she does no like to be passed in the Fair Grounds Oaks

4 -- Nest -- Her four-wide move on the turn and dominating stretch run in Ashland?  WOW !!

A longshot to consider:

1 -- Sacred Oath --Tried the boys, held her own and got third in Ark, Derby

:

In the Derby, I've wrestled with my top three for awhile now Here's what I got;


3 -- Epicenter -- I think his win in the Louisiana Derby was impressive. Rated, waited, pounced and pulled away.

1 -- Mo Donegal -- The win in the Wood was a closing nail biter but he flew that last furlong!

10 -- Zandon -- What a run in the Blue Grass ! From last to first and negotiated the traffic.  

A longshot to consider:

5 -- Smile Happy. -- 2nd in the Blue Grass and led in the stretch. That bump he got from Emmanual in the stretch probably cost him the win, in my opinion. 


paulie