Well, ol' Bob Baffert laid low all week and, Medina Spirit proved to be the best in the Kentucky Derby. I didn't see it happening and, at 12-1, not many others did either. Congrats to him and Johnny V.
On the day, I handicapped the seven stakes races and gave out 30 horses total that I liked. I had six winners, five seconds and six thirds. That's a 56% "in the money" percentage. I filled 17 of the 21 "money sports" available -- for a 81% success rate. Let's break it down by race:
RACE 6 -- BLOWOUT (9/5) was my top pick and got it done in the Turf Mile. I also had second with NEW YORK GIRL and third with ZOFELLE. Exacta and trifecta here.
RACE 7 -- GAMINE (1/5) was spectacular in her win in the Derby City Distaff, despite not seeming to like the surface at Churchill. I also had SCONSIN for second and ESTILO TALENTO for third. Exacta and trifecta again.
RACE 8 -- JACKIE'S WARRIOR (2-1) took the Pat Day Mile. I gave you him, second place DREAM SHAKE and third place WHISKEY DOUBLE. Another exacta, trifecta and the Pick 3.
RACE 9 -- DUJOUR (5/1) gave Baffert a stakes win in the Turf Stakes. I did not have him....just third place finisher WINFROMWITHIN in my picks.
RACE 10 -- FLAGSTAFF (9/2) was one of my picks in the Churchill Downs Stakes, along with WHITMORE for show.
RACE 11 -- The Turf Classic ended up a dead heat between two of my picks -- COLONEL LIAM (3-1) and DOMESTIC SPENDING (9/2) . I also had SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT, who got third. Exacta (twice) and trifecta (twice).
RACE 12 -- Credit to Medina Spirit who took the Derby in front-running fashion. I ran second with my pick MANDALOUN and third with HOT ROD CHARLIE. ESSENTIAL QUALITY ran fourth and O BESOS fifth, two more of my picks. The running time of 2:01:02 wasn't particularly impressive, but it was good enough to win. The Pick 4 (5/4/3,5/8) paid $708 on the .50 cent wager.
So, it goes.
I had one stroke of good fortune in the exotics by hitting the Oaks/Forester Turf Stakes/Derby Pick 3. Quite by luck...a $150 wager got me back $436...that helped a bit, but, I went six deep in the Derby leg of that bet and just tossed Medina Spirit in "for fun, for Baffert and Johnny V."
I ended up losing money on the day, despite the early luck I had in my picks. That early confidence and success in my picks caused me to think I was invincible, and, the horses showed me I was not. I wonder how that mattress guy from Houstton feels this morning -- after tossing millions at Essential Quality.
Still, six winners in seven races isn't exactly "el-stinko" I figured that a $2 WPS wager on all 30 of my picks would have cost $180. You would have got back $171.30...The seven trifectas I tried cost $210 in all. They returned $159.
I have a buddy who puts $2 to win on all the horses in the Derby every year. Of course, he loved it when Country House got the "W" in 2019, but this year he lost $12.
We can pick winners all day, we just can't pick what we will get paid for them.
We'll give it a go next Saturday.
paulie
