So far, this week, I've had a great two days at Keeneland -- taking down a couple of Pick 4's and Pick 3's over THURSDAY and FRIDAY at the historic Lexington track.
You know what that means...it's -- ODDS WISE -- time to stumble and fall, but, I'm going to try and make it three successful days in a row. The Saturday card at Keeneland is tough, tough, tough, and I could probably go six deep in each of the final four races (Races 7-10) in trying to handicap the Late Pick 4. But, $648 is way more than I want to spend on a wager, so...I've tried to narrow it down to four picks per race. There are no big, prohibitive favorites today. I'll hope for the best, hope that what I've been doing lately in handicapping carries over for today, and hope for some racing luck.
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR, I'LL TRY TO JUMP BACK IN AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY CHANGES)
RACE 7 -- ALLOWANCE -- 83K -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS -- (TURF)
5 -- READY FOR CHANGE
8 -- VIOLENZA
6 -- NOTORIOUS RBG
4 -- CHILI PETIN
RACE 8 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- 80K -- 1-1/16TH MILE
3 -- SOUTH BEND
7 -- TOP SEED
6 -- MIGHTY HEART
2 -- ROYAL MESA
RACE 9 -- ELKHORN STAKES -- GII -- 200K -- 1-1/2 MILE (TURF)
1 -- CROSS BORDER (scratched)
6 -- TIDE OF THE SEA
2 -- SAY THE WORD
10 -- RED KNIGHT
7 -- NORTH DAKOTA
RACE 10 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMNG -- 20K -- SIX FURLONGS
3 -- LOOPALLU
12 -- CAN'T SAY NO
8 -- HIGH FIVE COTTON
6 -- FINNEGAN
THE PLAY
I'll keep it real simple today and just play my top four picks in Races 7-10 for a .50 cent late Pick 4.
Total cost: $128
4,5,6,8/2,3,6,7/1,2,6,10/3,6,8,12
******************************
(If you're looking for a bigger play, for example -- the Pick 5 (Races 6-10) -- I do like my old pal Paul McGee's runner #5 PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE in Race 6. He's got speed, is coming off a 5 month layoff, shortening up and may needs this one -- but could be ready to start 2021 in fine fashion. Buyer beware on him -- but he had a smoking, bullet work over five furlongs at Churchill back on April 6th and might be ready to graduate out of the maiden ranks today.
Once again, this is another VERY competitive race and regular jock Joe Talamo is NOT riding (Bejarano gets the nod). I'll probably try him in some sort of fashion, maybe not in a Pick 5, but I'll watch the board and see how he's bet. Half the field in Race 6 are first time starters, and that always raises a few caution flags for me. I usually don't like to "single" in races, so...do what you will with him.
I'll watch the odds.
Good luck today!
paulie
No comments:
Post a Comment
We recently opened up the site to comments. You know the rules...keep it clean, no bots or spam and don't trash anyone. It's provisional...if it gets stupid, I'll shut down the comments again.