Welcome to Wednesday of Derby Week ! I'll be keeping an eye-on-the-skies later today, as rain is expected in the Louisville area. If scratches occur, I'll do my best to update the site.
I'm tackling the Late Pick 4 at Churchill (Race 7-10). A very challenging card, with two maiden races, an allowance that would probably be the feature race at a Lot of other tracks and the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes...with the very impressive AVERLY JANE entered.
Let's hope the rains hold off until the completion of the card!
CHURCHILL DOWNS
RACE 7 -- MAIDEN $115k -- 1-1/8TH MILES -- (TURF)
9 --PERHAPS TONIGHT
8 -- MINT EDITION
4 -- LAYNLOMAKNDOUGH
10 -- TRANSIENT
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 11 -- MUISANNE, 12 -- SCARABOA)
RACE 8 -- ALLOWANCE -- $118K -- SIX FURLONGS
2 -- MY MAN FLINSTONE
7 -- QUIXOTIC
3 -- HE'S IN CHARGE
5 -- THE BIG KAHUNA
(IF CRATCHES OCCUR -- 8 -- READY TO ANSWER)
RACE 9 -- KENTUCKY JUVENILE STAKES -- $15OK -- SIX FURLONGS
4 -- AVERLY TIME
3 -- KAUFYMAKER (scratched)
7 -- BOHEMIAN FROST
8 -- AMERICAN BOUND
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 6 -- VODKA AND WATER)
RACE 10 -- MAIDEN $56K -- 1-1/16TH MILES
2 -- COOL RAGS
3 -- BEAR ALLEY
5 -- ORNERY (scratched)
7 -- SOMETHING ALWAYS
(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 4 -- BOLD MANOR)
THE PLAY
I'll try the .50 cent Late Pick 4 and build in a little security in Races 7 and 10 -- maiden affairs.
Depending on what the weather brings and the track conditions, I'll try to go for or five deep in Races 7 and 10, four deep in Race 8 and three to four deep in Race 9. Once again, that'll depend on who stays in, who scratches and who get in off the also eligible list. Check back for changes before the sequence starts.
A possible play is:
Race 7 -- 4,8,9,10,
Race 8 -- 2,3,5,7
Race 9 -- 4,6,7,8
Race 10 -- 2,3,4,7
Cost: $128
In the 2nd race, #5 BIG NICK comes in from the Fairgrounds and drops back to a shorter distance (where he belongs) and gets Adam Beschizza back on board, who guided him to his lone win. He lost all chances when he stumbled out a the gate last time-- if he gets a clean break today, he might be "all that". I'll take a chance on him...he had a great 4F work here recently...
Good luck today!
paulie
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