She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

Sunday, April 18, 2021

Keeneland Results 4/17/21

 A good day overall with the Keeneland Picks but fell just short of hitting the late Pick 4. 

Overall, I gave out 17 picks (counting the sixth race) and had three wins, three places and two shows. that's a 47% in the money percentage. Out of the 13 possible payout slots, I filled eight of them for a 61.5% success rate.

I spoke at length about  PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE in Race 6. Luis Saez ended up riding and he lost in a photo by a nose to Derby Date. I didn't play a pick 5, instead I went $30-$30-$30 across the board on the Paul McGee runner. He paid $4 to place and $2.80 to I still made a small profit of $12. 

The Late Pick 4 crashed early, with BROOKE MARIE winning Race 7. A horse I had circled to consider but did not list as one of my top four. She won at 7/2 odds. I did have second with Chili Petin and third with Violenza, 

So, I turned to a late Pick 3, for races 8-10. And, South Bend came through with the win for me at 7/2 odds. Mighty Heart ran third in a very competitive optional claiming race. 

In the Elkhoen Stakes (Race 9) I was disappointed to see Cross Border scratch, he was my top pick, but still won with Say The Word at 7/2 odds. 

In Race 10, I hit with High Five Cotton at 7/2 odds and nearly got Can't Say No there, who was 26-1 and lost the photo. 

The Late Pick Three returned $50.65 on the .50 cent wager, and I spent $32 to hit it. A nice bonus in race 10, where my $1 exacta box returned $84.30 on the $12 dollar bet.  

The late Pick 4 was worth $200.75 with 2/3/2/8 as the winning numbers. 

We'll "give it a go" again next week (to quote Louisville Field Hockey coach Justine Sowry). We'll have the opening night at Churchill Downs to consider and the start of Derby Week (the Derby is May 1st) and try to get a look at how the horses are running at "the world's most legendary race track." I doubt I get to Churchill at all during Derby Week, unlike past years, a sprained MCL in my right knee has me "on the shelf" with limited walking...that and the arthritis in that knee make it a chore just to walk and driving is definitely out.  



Keep an eye on jockey Luis Saez. He  recently switched jockey agents and is now represented by former trainer Kieran McLaughlin. It's a good move!  Saez won four races on the Saturday card, had three seconds and a show. If you had put $2 across the board on Saez every time he rode yesterday, you would have spent $54 and gotten back $118.20. I'll let you figure out the winnings with a $30-$30-$30 across the board...

McLaughlin was a successful trainer for many years and now that he's switched to being an agent, that knowledge and the contacts he's made nationwide are most beneficial on getting Saez on "alive" and winning horses. 

And it's been a great situation for Saez!  Consider he's rode 76 mounts at Keeneland this spring: 

He's had 26 wins, 13 places, 16 shows.

Yesterday, in the final five Keeneland races, Saez had three wins and two seconds.

Saez is, by far, the leading rider at Keeneland, with a 34% win percentage and a 72% "in the money" percentage. Can this continue at Churchill? I'll be watching, and I won't bet against him. . As one horse player I know mentioned to me:  "You'd be nuts not to include Saez in any multiple horse wagers (Pick 3, Pick 4, etc) that you make."  

Wise advice.

paulie . 


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