Keeneland & Oaklawn Results -- 4/10/21

 A good day for picking winners yesterday at both Oaklawn and Keeneland for me. Out of the eight races I handicapped, I had seven winners -- including a 18-1 shot in Keeneland's Stonestreet and 12-1 in the Arkansas Derby. 

I gave you 32 horses in all to consider and had those seven winners, plus seven seconds and five thirds. That's a 60% "in the money" percentage. Out of the 24 "payable slots" up for grabs, I filled 19 of them for a 79% success rate. 

I hit the two Pick 3's I offered at Oaklawn, but fell short on the Pick 4 at Keeneland, running second and third in the Giant's Causeway Stakes. The Pick 3's , though, returned a total of $179 on $128 wagered, and a nice side bet on 18-1 KING FURY in the Stonestreet made it a profitable day. 

KEENELAND

Race 7 -- the Ben Ali Stakes -- brought SILVER DUST home first at 9/2 odds. I had the trifecta in that race, also giving you Night Ops and Beau Luminaire. 

Race 8 -- A Pick 4 wrecker, with 8-1 CHANGE OF CONTROL besting Into Mystic and Jakarta in the stretch. 

Race 9 -- The battle was supposed to be between Proxy, Swiftsure and Hockey Dad, but my fourth pick KING FURY passed them in the stretch and won easily at 18-1. "The King" probably won't make the Derby field, but keep him in mind for the Preakness. A "hunch" side bet on King Fury was a day-saver. 

Race 10 -- JULIET FOXTROT, (8/5), proved to be the best, over Tamahere, to win the Jenny Wiley, and I gave you both of those. 

The Pick 4 paid a handsome $2941.10 on a .50 cent wager -- maybe a deeper dive in Race 8 would have brought it to me, I had circled CHANGE OF CONTROL in my earlier handicapping, but set him aside to include In Good Spirits in my top four picks, who obviously did not like the yielding turf.  Study long, study wrong -- in this case. 

OAKLAWN 

Race 9 -- The Oaklawn Mile saw second betting choice BY MY STANDARDS (2-1) handle Rushie and Wells Bayou. I had the trifecta in this race.  

Race 10 -- This competitive optional claiming went to MIGHTY MISCHIEF (8/5), who outran Name Rejected and Game Day Plan. Another trifecta in my picks. 

Race 11 -- Everyone saw the Count Fleet Stakes as a battle between Whitmore and CZ Rocket. I thought highly of both, and it was CZ ROCKET'S day, winning convincingly in the six furlong sprint at 2-1 odds. Not much on this Pick 3 -- $26.90 on the $1 wager

Race 12 -- The Arkansas Derby set up, allegedly to be a battle between Concert Tour and Caddo River. I also liked SUPER STOCK, though, and he got it done for me at 12-1 odds, flying by Concert Tour (3rd) and Caddo River (2nd) in the stretch. It concluded a Pick 3 that was worth $152.10.

I was disappointed there was not a Pick 4 for this sequence. I toyed with the idea of playing my top four picks in races 10-12 and hitting the (ALL) button in Race 13. The cost ($320) scared me off, and the return ($260.80) on a .50 variety proved my decision to be a wise one.  

On the day, I wagered a total of $296. The Keeneland Pick Four, two Pick Threes at Oaklawn and two $20 to win side bets to win on King Fury and Night Ops.  I got back $560, so, I showed a profit, largely due to my "hunch bet, let's play the odds" wager on King Fury. 

So, Super Stock, trained by Steve Asmussen, gets the Derby spot out of the Arkansas Derby. Concert Tour and Caddo River have enough "points" to get in the Derby, but, whether Bob Baffert (Concert Tour) and Brad Cox (Caddo River) send them remains to be seen. Watching a replay of the race, Super Stock laid off the hot early fractions and moved near the top of the stretch, swung four wide and zoomed past Caddo River and Concert Tour. He was still full of run. Remember, Churchill has a long stretch for the Derby, and if Super Saver can do that in Louisville, he's one I have to consider. 

MY TOP FIVE DERBY CONTENDERS: 

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY

2) HOT ROD CHARLIE

3) LIKE THE KING

4) SUPER STOCK

5) ROCK YOUR WORLD

paulie