Oaklawn Results 4/25/20

ANOTHER FINAL RACE BLOWUP AT OAKLAWN

In what has become almost a normal occurrence at Oaklawn on Saturday racing, a long-shot (26-1 Violent Pass) outran the entries and won race 11. In his third race ever as a maiden special race, he gained the lead in the stretch and held off strong closing Copper King, (my top pick in the race)  to get the upset win. 

I warned about the final in the Pick 4 being wide open, and even gave you six horses to watch. Unfortunately, Violent Pass wasn't one of them. 

On the day, we gave you 15 horses to consider. Out of those, we came up with three winners (races 8-10), four seconds and two thirds. That's a 60% "in the money" percentage and we filled nine of the twelve "payout" spots in the four race sequence. Three of my four top picks were winners (Race 8 - Sneaking Out, Race 9 - Long Weekend and Race 10 - Mia Mischief.)  

The first Pick 3 (races 8-10) paid $17.10 on the .50 cent wager and the final Pick 3 (races 9-11) paid $106.80.  The Pick 4 returned $421.20.

A $2 "across the board" bet on all 15 horses I noted would have cost $90. The total return for you on these wagers was $74.20.

Race 8 winner Sneaking Out paid $5 to win. Race 9 winner Long Weekend paid $6.20 to win. Race 10 winner Mia Mischief paid $5 to win and Race 11 winner Violent Pass paid $53.80 to win. 

The three winning exactas I laid out paid $12, $7.70 and $8.90.

As I've said here before (to quote the late Scott Harris), we can pick winners, but we can't pick what we get paid. 

I hit the early Pick 3 in the sequence, lost the final Pick 3. I laid off the Pick 4. I've got those "final race fears" at Oaklawn anymore, it seems. I gave you 6 out of the 12 horses in Race 11 and still didn't hit it. I might just recommend the "all" button next week. 

I had a winning day -- not because of the four-race sequence -- but because of betting an old favorite of mine in Race 6. Wilbo held off the competition to win at 8-1 odds. I "unbuckled" on him across the board. On the $2 WPS bet, he paid $17.40,  $7,40,  $4.80. That's $29.40 back on $6 wagered. I went "heavier" than the $2 WPS.. That $23.40 profit on a $2 WPS wager helped "save the day".  

Next Saturday at Oaklawn is shaping up to be a huge day. The Arkansas Derby is trying to get enough entries (22 horses) to be run in two divisions. There are other great stakes races on that Saturday, May 2nd race as well. It is Oaklawn's final day of the current meet. As of now, the track will still be closed to racing fans. 

It's also the first Saturday of May. You know what that traditionally means at Churchill Downs. In normal times. 

Where racing goes after Oaklawn is finished with their spring meet is anyone's guess. The CoronaVirus will be the deciding factor, and, unfortunately, there is no racing form nor past performances to study and handicap for predicting the final outcome of COVID 19. 

We'll see ya next Saturday. 

Stay well, stay home if you can and keep believing.


paulie
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