Oaklawn Late Pick Four 4/25/20

CAROUSEL HEADS UP OAKLAWN SATURDAY CARD


I know it seems a bit like "Groundhog Day" returning to Oaklawn each week for the Paulie Picks, but, they do have the most challenging racing going on currently and the stakes races today remain the highest quality of horse racing going on at this time. So, back into the breech we go. 

Two Stakes races, the Carousel and Bachelor L, are in the late Pick 4 (races eight through eleven)...plus a challenging allowance race and another "wide open" maiden special weight to close out the day. 

Let's get into it. 


RACE 8 -- ALLOWANCE 62K -- SIX FURLONGS

4 -- SNEAKING OUT
8 -- READY TO RUNAWAY
5 -- NOMIZAR
9 -- BYE BYE J

Analysis: 

Sneaking Out comes into this allowance affair after a eight-month layoff. He'd been racing in California and drops in class and distance after not seeming to like a mile in a Grade III. This horse has tons of back class and success and has had two good, six furlong works at Oaklawn in preparation for today. He's my top pick.  Ready To Runaway just missed in his last one out at Oaklawn and had a third earlier at Oaklawn this spring. He gets a fast track today, for a change, and his early speed just might last today. Another with back class and speed. Nomizar won his last time out at Oaklawn. He's a closer and regular rider David Cohen returns. This one worries me a little -- he's been a "bounce" house (a win followed by a loss) for the five races, Will he "bounce" again today after winning last time out? Bye Bye J is another "bounce" horse, coming off a win. He's been running against much better, though, and won by eight lengths at Oaklawn the last time he ran for these conditions. 
On Deck should be considered, at a price. He's 3 for 4 lifetime and comes in from the Fairgrounds. A definite "move up" in class and conditions, though, so consider that. 


RACE 9 -- BACHELOR L STAKES -- 100K -- SIX FURLONGS

9 -- LONG WEEKEND
7 -- EIGHT RINGS
1 -- LITTLE MENACE
3 -- ECHO TOWN

Analysis: 

Long Weekend led from wire-to-wire and won for fun in his last at Oaklawn in similar conditions. He's 3 for 4 lifetime and Joe Talamo rides for Tom Amoss. He's the top pick for me. Eight Rings is in from California. He was last seen in the Breeders Cup Grade I Juvenile, where he set an early pace but faded. He did win another Grade I before that and his back class, Bob Baffert training and Joel Rosario riding make him a "can't ignore". Little Menace chased home Long Weekend last time out. Two wins before that one, though, established him as a deep closer -- and if the speed dies today, he could pick up the pieces from his rail spot. Echo Town used a blistering stretch run to destroy high level allowance s foes last time out at Oaklawn. He'll stay off the pace and go for a stretch run try again today, if  Ricardo Santana can follow Bob Baffert's probable instructions. 

RACE 10 -- CAROUSEL STAKES -- 125K -- SIX FURLONGS

8 -- MIA MISCHIEF
1 -- BELLAFINA
6 -- AMY'S CHALLENGE
2 -- MIDNIGHT FANTASY

Analysis: 

Mia Mischief has had a spectacular career. This five year old filly looked fantastic in her spring return to racing at Oaklawn and Steve Asmussen has her ready to roll. Grade I wins and Ricardo Santana on board give her the class edge. She likes to stalk and pounce in the stretch and could benefit from a speed dual. She's my top selection. Bellafina wouldn't surprise at all if she ends up in the winner's circle, though. She gets the rail,and has worked well at Oaklawn since shipping in from California. Another one who stalks and pounces at the end.  Amy's Challenge barely got nipped at the wire by Midnight Fantasy in her last at Oaklawn. She's also got a ton of back class and she'll maybe she'll contend for the early lead today and see who can catch her. An interesting horse for this race. Midnight Fantasy did beat Amy's Challenge at 8-1 odds last time out and is 8 for 12 lifetime. She's never far away from the leaders and Martin Garcia returns again to ride. She's got the highest speed figures of any in this race -- so she can't be left out. 

RACE 11 -- Maiden Special Weight -- 60K -- 1-1/16 MILE

1 -- COPPER KING
4 -- UNRIGHTEOUS
9 -- RONAMO
6 -- AZTEC EMPIRE

Analysis:

By far the toughest race in the sequence to handicap. I went with Copper King as my top choice. He finally gets a fast track after just falling short in two attempts at Oaklawn on off-track conditions. He comes off the pace, gets the rail and has five second-place finishes in his career of nine race, so...today, maybe he graduates. Unrighteous was improving in his first two starts before running into a much better field in the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby. He's back where he belongs today and Todd Pletcher puts Joel Rosario on board. Works have been good.  Ronamo is 0-12 lifetime, but has run second in his last four races. Wayne Catalano tries a new jockey today in Luis Quinonez, he stalks the pace. Who knows? Aztec Empire has chased Copper King home in two out of his last three races in "off" conditions. He might do better on today's expected fast track? Ron Moquett. 

Since the last race has been so unpredictable on Saturdays at Oaklawn, I'll throw out two more who could surprise: #11 On D' Oro and #7 AK Safari. Better safe and sorry here, if you can toss down the extra $$$ in a wide, wide open finale. 

I'LL PROBABLY TRY...A couple of Pick 3's here, with my top four picks in each race...but -- if I was going to fire at a Pick 4, (and I might) I'd go with: 

Race 8:  4.5.6,8.9
Race 9:  1.7.9
Race 10: 1,6,8
Race 11; 1,4,6,7,9,11 

This amounts to a $130 wager, pricey for some, but since I've been "playing on their money" for quite some time...I can do it and still be up for the spring. 


Good Luck today and bet 'em anyway you like, but wager responsibly

paulie
xxxxx.