Oaklawn Late Pick 4 4-11-20

Today we go to Oaklawn for a very challenging late Pick 4 sequence that starts in Race 9. You have the Oaklawn Mile, Oaklawn Stakes, a challenging maiden race and competitive optional claiming affair in the sequence.. Let's get to it! 


RACE 9 -- OAKLAWN MILE -- 150K -- 1 MILE -- (DIRT)

3 -- TOM'S D ETAT
2 -- MR. MONEY
7 -- SNAPPER SINCLAIR
14 -- IMPROBABLE


Analysis:  Tom's D Etat is the top pick here. He finished the fall winning three of his last four. Those included the Grade I Clark Handicap (Churchill) and Grade II Fayette (Keeneland). His spring works look great, Joel Rosario returns as rider and it's a class drop for him.  Mr. Money was on an impressive streak (4 for 5) before he was over-matched in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile to end his fall season. His spring works look great and it's a class drop today as well. Regular jockey Gabriel Saez returns.  Snapper Sinclair has run second twice and third once this year at Oaklawn and should be around to hit the board. The jockey change to Florent Geroux doesn't hurt, either. Improbable has a tough post to overcome, ships in from California but has been facing tougher in his last several. Remember, he was 4-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby last May and finished fourth. I can't leave him out. Works have been good for Bob Baffert. If you're looking to go "deep" here (I am not) maybe use Pioneer Spirit and Bankit. 


RACE 10 --  MAIDEN 60K -- 1-1/8TH MILE -- (DIRT) 

10 -- DEAN MARTINI
12 -- HUNT THE FRONT
7 --   OXIDE
4 --   WHAT A COUNTRY
(ALSO)  5 -- INSTIGATED
              8 --  URBANITE

Analysis:  What a challenging affair here! I  went with Dean Martini as my top pick. Brad Cox barn, Joe Talamo returns as rider. 2nd at Oaklawn against similar last time out and the works are good. Hunt The Front certainly rates a chance. Two second place finishes in his last two at Oaklawn, gets Joel Rosario today and has lost both his races by less than two lengths. Third time charm? Oxide had the lead and faded in his two starts, one on the turf and one on a sloppy track. If he shows that speed today on a fast track, he just might last. Brian Hernandez, Jr. -- one of my favorite jocks rides -- for sneaky Eddie Kenneally..What A Country was second against similar in his only start. Joe Johnson and "Red Dog" Hartlage can be dangerous as a jockey/trainer combo.  I can't dismiss Instigated -- despite his 0-9 lifetime performance. He'll run early with speed and who knows? Urbanite also jumps back on the dirt after a tough turf race. You got Ricardo Sanata Jr. here with Steve Asmussen teamed up and they can be dangerous. Even Eddy Forever could figure, horse likes to play "come catch me and Orlando Mojica can get them out early Tough race, tough race. 


RACE 11 --  OAKLAWN STAKES -- 200K -- 1-1/8TH MILE  (DIRT) 

4 -- THOUSAND WORDS
1 -- BASIN
9 -- DIGITAL
8 -- TAISHAN 
5 -- SIR RICK

Analysis:  Thousand Words won three in a row in California with late stretch closes before getting over-matched in the San Felipe . He won't see competition that tough today, so I make him my tepid top pick, Basin will certainly test him. Two great wins at Saratoga, then he ran third in the Grade II Rebel (against NADAL). Asmussen chooses Florent Geroux to ride and, you know we love "Flo-Geo" in the saddle.  Digital had no chance against MR. MONOMOY last time out in the Risen Star, could rebound today for Bret Calhoun and Brian Hernandez, Jr. Taishan blew the field away in his last, an optional claimer at Oaklawn. Can he repeat that feat?  LOOKING FOR A PRICE? Maybe consider #5 Sir Rick.  This one has won four of his last five, at lesser tracks, but likes to stay near the pace and draws away in the stretch, Today is a huge class test for him. I'll use him. 


RACE 12 -- Optional Claiming -- 50K -- 1-1/16th MILE -- DIRT

4 -- LIMONITE
5 -- POPULAR KID
6 -- EXULTING
10 -- SONNY SMACK
1 -- JUNGLE WARFARE

Analysis:  Limonite drops to his lowest level in a year in his return to the track. I love the spot for him and the combo of Riicardo Santana and Steve Asmussen. This one comes back to the dirt, too, a surface he definitely loves. Back class all over his past performances. He's my top pick. Popular Kid has two VERY convincing wins at Oaklawn in his last two. He destroyed lesser in the stretch in each. Can he do that today against tougher? Exulting didn't fire in the Grade III Razorback in his last, but he had been on turf in the five races before that and should benefit from a huge class drop. Martin Garcia in the saddle doesn't hurt either. Sonny Smack has ran well at Oaklawn against similar in his last three -- two wins and a second. He has a impressive stretch move and I can't toss him out.  Jungle Warfare hasn't fared well in two shorter dirt distances at Oaklawn. He was a previous turf specialist before that and seems to like a longer race like today's. Buyer beware but the last race at Oaklawn always seems to provide an upset, it seems. He could be a challenger. 


Full fields. Challenging fields. It's a horse-players dream and the payouts might be big today. Play 'em anyway you like. I haven't fully decided how I'll attack these four in betting strategy yet, but -- I'll remind you not to put the mortgage on a mudder and don't be afraid to go deep in the optional claiming and maiden affairs. 

Good luck. Stay well and practice social distancing. 

paulie
xxxxx