Oaklawn Results 4/18/20

We gave it a good try yesterday in the late Pick 4 at Oaklawn (races 8-11). Providing you the winners in races 8-10 and barely losing Race 11 by a nose. 

Race 11 was a heaartbreaker.

Arrival ran a great race and came from off the pace to challenge the eventual winner Curlin Rules. Arrival stuck his head in front of Curlin Rules with about a furlong to go. It looked like we were going to win the race, but Curlin Rules fought back on the rail and got his head in front of Arrival at the wire to win by a nose. The rail was the place to be yesterday at Oaklawn. It was surprising to me that Curlin Rules was able to fight back after leading most of the way and win. I credit Tyler Baze for a great ride and wonder why Terry Thompson couldn't get more of of Arrival after he took the lead? the winner went off at 17-1 and Arrival was higher odds than that...paying $19.60 to place and $10.20 to show. 

There is a common theory among trainers that some horses, one they have taken the lead in a race, tend to relax a bit, even with jockey urging. Maybe that's what happened. 

On the day, I gave out 20 horses to consider. One got scratched (Take Charge Angel) in the ninth race, so 19 went to post. We had three winners, two seconds and one show. That 31.5% "in the money" percentage isn't great, but out of 12 possible payouts in the win, place and show slots for the four races, we had six of them for 50%. 

Whitmore won race eight and paid $8.20 on the $2 wager. Break Even dominated race nine and rewarded backers with $5.20 on $2 wagered. Ce Ce made a great stretch run to take race 10 and returned $9.20 for each $2 put down. 

The first Pick 3 was worth $40.35 on the .50 cent wager. If you had played the picks from yesterday, you would have spent $50, after the scratch, so you would have lost about ten dollars. The late Pick 3 returned $108.20. The Late Pick 4 was worth $562.40. 

We were a nose away from both of the latter wagers. . 

My wagering for the day consisted ofI putting a $2 WPS wager on the 19 horses I picked -- which cost $114. I got back $86, so I took a $28 loss on the day. 

The old adage "second is second, whether it's a nose or a mile" came true unfortunately yesterday. Another final race at Oaklawn that "blew up" with high prices and no favorites in the money --  just like last Saturday. We'll keep that precedent in mind when we handicap and meet again on Saturday the 25th. 

--paulie--