Oaklawn Results -- 4-11-20

Let's take a minute to talk about how changing track and weather conditions can change one's handicapping picks and strategy. Here at Paulie's Picks, I always handicap the card early in the morning of the day of the races and I handicap for a fast track. When those conditions change during the day's races, like they did yeserday, the results can be catastrophic. 

Through eight races yesterday, Oaklawn was a fast track. During the ninth race, the rains came. By the time the tenth race came around, the track was sloppy. 

And that's when the bombs began to explode. Race 10 -- a 20-1 morning line wins and pays $19.60 on a $2 win bet. Race 11.-- a 30-1 morning line wins and pays $95.60 on a $2 win bet... and in Race 12 -- another 30-1 shot wins and returns $77.80 on a $2 win bet. The .50 cent Pick 4 pays $26,935.70.   Needless to say, I didn't have it or give it out. 

On the day, I did list 20 horses in the four race sequence I though had "board-hitting" capabilities . Out of them, I had (1) winner, (3) places and (3) shows.  The "in the money" percentage of 35% isn't great, but out of the 12 "payout" possibilities in the four race sequence, I did have seven -- or 58%. 

In Race 9, on a fast track that was picking up rain, my top pick Tom's D Etat made a huge stretch move to eliminate the contenders and won for fun.

In Race 10, my top pick Dean Martini gave a good account of himself and was close, barely getting nosed out for second by another one of my picks and finishing third.

In Race 11, my top pick Thousand Words just never seemed comfortable in the slop and faded to 11th. 

In Race 12, my top pick, Limonite, closed willingly down the stretch and fell just short of catching the winner -- getting nosed-out by my second pick for second place at the wire and finishing third.   

The wager was a bit different for me yesterday. I bet my top pick in each race "across the board" On a $2 scale (I went a little higher than that) I risked $24 dollars in the four races. My return was $18.40. 

Mother nature dealt handicapping a blow yesterday, but...there will be other days.


paulie
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