Oaklawn Late Pick 4 -- 4/18/20

We return to Oaklawn for today's Paulie Picks. A nice late Pick 4 sequence awaits us, including the Grade I Apple Blossom for older fillies, the Grade III Count Fleet Sprint Stakes, a challenging optional claiming race and competitive claimer affair to end the sequence. 

We hope to have a better day than last Saturday, when long-shots ruled the sloppy track. A fast track for today, no rain in sight and temperatures in the high 50's. 

Let's get at it! 

RACE 8 -- COUNT FLEET SPRINT STAKES (GRADE III) --  350K -- SIX FURLONGS

7 -- HIDDEN SCROLL
9 -- WHITMORE
2 -- FLAGSTAFF 
4 -- BOBBY'S WICKED ONE 
6 -- MR JAGERMEISTER

Analysis: 

Hidden Scroll looked quite the best in his 2020 opener at Gulfstream, getting the eaarly lead and never looking back. He moves up a bit today, but, let's not forget this four year old was the favorite in last year's Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. He ran into Maximum Security and Code of Honor and he won't see as tough today. Hidden is my top pick.  Whitmore has a first and second at Oaklawn in his 2020 return and is a definite closer. Hot jock Joe Talamo returns for the mount. Flagstaff took the Grade II San Carlos at Santa Anita last time out. He's one who follows the pace and closes well. Getting Joel Rosario on board doesn't hurt either and he had a bullet work on April 12th. Bobby's Wicked One comes off two straight wins in 100K races at the Fairgrounds and Miguel Mena stays on board. Dangerous. Mr Jagermeister showed great speed and barely faded to second at Oaklawn in his 2020 opener in a 150K race. If he gets clear, he just might hold on this time? 

RACE 9 -- Optional Claiming -- 62K -- SIX FURLONGS

5 -- MEADOW DANCE
6 -- BREAK EVEN
8 -- HEAVEN'S WHISPER
10 -- TAKE CHARGE ANGEL
1 -- SHANGHAI TARIFF

Analysis:

Meadow Dance has been first or second in her last six races. She drops down in class today and gets Florent Geroux on top. She's had two great works at Oaklawn and trainer Brad Cox knows how to get them ready. Meadow is my top pick. Break Even was on fire in 2019, with six straight wins, including a 100K at Saratoga. She debuted 2020 with her typical early speed but faded at Oaklawn, That probably won't happen today with Joel Rosaario aboard. She's been the favorite in all eight lifetime starts. Heaven's Whisper has won two straight allowance races at Oaklawn this spring and gets Joe Talamo again to ride. She likes to stalk the pace and swoop by them in the stretch. Take Charge Angel won her final 2019 race at Turfway, and was second by a nose in a 100K at Keeneland. Core Lanerie gets the return ride. Shanghai Tariff likes to get on top and play come catch me. She's got the rail today, has a bullet workout from April 10th and Fernando De La Cruz returns as the rider. 

RACE 10 -- APPLE BLOSSOM -- GRADE I -- 600K -- 1-1/16th Miles

14 -- CE CE
11 -- SERENGETI EMPRESS
4 -- COME DANCING 
5 -- POINT OF HONOR
12 -- GO GOOGLE YOURSELF

Analysis: 

Ce Ce breaks from the outside of this field and likes the leads, so will getting there wear her out? I' saying "no". She's won her last two, including the Grade I Beholder Stakes mile at Santa Anita and Victor Espinoza return as the rider. She's my top pick in a tough field.  Serengeti Empress destryed the competition in the slop in the Grade II Azeri at Oaklawn last time out and she'd be no surprise if she won. Come Dancing was last seen the the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, where she faded, but was four for five in the winners circle before that. She rates a chance. Point of Honor has been either first of second in six of her seven lifetime starts, including a couple of Grade I and Grade II races. A dangerous contender with Drayden Van Dye in the saddle. Go Google Yourself won a Grade III at Oaklawn this spring, is 2 for 2 at the track and  one of my favorite jockeys Brian Hernandez, Jr is the regular rider for my buddy Paul McGee. 


RACE 11 -- CLAIMING -- 50K -- 1-1/16th MILE

10 -- MATROOH
2 -- KURILOV
1 -- TIME LINE
11 -- ARRIVAL
12 -- HAWAAKOM 

Analysis: 

Matrooh won by six lengths against similar two starts back at Oaklawn and David Cohen returns as the rider today. My top pick in the final. Kurilov has two wins and a fourth, against tougher competition at Oaklawn this spring and is a proven closer with Joe Talamo in the saddle. Time Line drops to his lowest level in quite some time for Steve Asmussen and ran well in the mud last out at Oaklawn. Could be the speed here?  Arrival has two wins at Oaklawn in his last three starts, could fir the bill here today. Hawaakom ran third to Arrival last time out, This ten-year-old has been in the money six time in ten attempts at Oaklawn, will enjoy the class drop. 


Good luck today and remember what I say, "Never bet the mortgage on a mudder". 


paulie
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