Oaklawn -- Arkansas Derby Day -- Late Pick 4 Picks -- 5/2/20

Ah...the first Saturday in May. We know what it means, and, even in today's world -- where the Kentucky Derby won't run today, I'll still pour a bourbon, sing "My Old Kentucky Home" and watch racing.

Oaklawn has a wonderful card today. We'll look at the Late Pick Four (races 11-14) which offers both of the Arkansas Derby split division handicap races, the Oaklawn Handicap and the traditional closing race for the Oaklawn meet, a 1-3/4th Mile 50K stakes race. 


RACE 11 -- ARKANSAS DERBY -- $500K -- GRADE I -- 1-1/8TH MILE

1 -- CHARLATAN
11 -BASIN 
4 -- GOUVERNOR MORRIS
8 -- ANNEAU D' ORO

Analysis: 

#1 Charlatan comes into this race with two impressive wins at Santa Anita. It's Bob Baffert and Martin Garcia remaining together. He's my top pick, despite never going over a mile and never running in anything higher than a optional claiming race. How will he like Oaklawn? How will he handle the longer distance? Works have been good and those two 100 + Beyers figures indicate he'll go for the lead and play "come catch me". #11 Basin finally gets a fast track after three good showings in the slop. Nadal and Farmington, who have beat him, are in the other division and Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana are dangerous . #4 Gouvernor Morris faltered last time out in the Florida Derby, but, has shown he runs well at longer distances in the past and the combo of John Velasquez and Todd Pletcher look tough, #8 Anneau D' Oro wass second in the Breeders Cup and lost all chance in his last start when he got bumped badly at the Fairgrounds in the Risen Star. He could bounce back at a price today. 

RACE 12 -- THE OAKLAWN HANDICAP -- $600K -- GRADE I -- 1-1/8TH MILE

4 -- MR. FREEZE
6 -- WARRIOR'S CHARGE
7 -- COMBATANT
9 -- TACITUS
(also consider -- #12 BY MY STANDARDS AND #14 IMPROBABLE)

Analysis: 

No shortage of quality competition here and I'll definitely go "deep" in any wagering pursuits. #4 Mr. Freeze was much the best in the Gulfstream Park Mile, he like to stalk and pounce in the stretch and he's my top pick today. #6 Warrior's Charge loves Oaklawn with three wins here, looked very good in the Grade III Razorback Handicap here and gets Florent Geroux again on board. The question is, he likes the lead...can he sustain it here at the longer distance? #7 Combatant closed with a rush to win the Grade I Santa Anita Handicap, he shoild love the extra distance today and Joel Rosario returns on board for Brad Cox. #9 Tacitus was all the rage on the Derby Trail last year, comes back to the states after the Saudi Cup, where he ran into Maximum Security and Midnight Bisou. Can he return to that 2019 form? Works have been OK. I'm also look at #12 By My Standards and #14 Improbable as runners who have a chance here. By My Standards owned Fair Grounds this spring and Improbable closed well in the Oaklawn Mile and just missed, behind Tom's D'Etat. Tough race here. 

RACE 13 -- ARKANSAS DERBY -- $500K -- GRADE 1 -- 1-1/8TH MILE

5 -- NADAL
4 -- KING GUILLERMO
10 -- FARMINGTON ROAD
11 -- WELLS BAYOU
(also consider #7 Silver Prospector) 

Analysis: 

#5 Nadal is 3-3 lifetime, won the Rebel at Oaklawn last time out and will try to take today's division wire-to-wire. I like his chances and he's my top pick. #4 King Guillermo won the Tampa Bay Derby pulling away in the stretch and should like today's extra distance. #10 Farmington  Road is a closer and the added distance today suits his running style. Adding Javier Castellano in the saddle doesn't hurt for Todd Pletcher. #11 Wells Bayou owned the Louisiana Derby at Fairgrounds, Florent Geroux knows how to ride him and could contest for the early pace. #7 Silver Prospector isa classic "bounce" horse and could be the winner today if you suscribe to that theory. I'll use him. Asmussen and Santana. 

RACE 14 -- STAKES ALLOWANCE -- 50K -- 1-3/4TH MILE

1 -- DANGERFIELD
5 -- CARLOS SIXES
11 -- THE ROGUE DIESEL 
14 -- RIVER ECHO 
(also consider #12 She Might Fell and #7 Wickets Way) 

#1 Dangerfield is a stalker and closer and could relish this unusually long distance. He's my top pick. #5 Carlos Sixes is 3 for 4 at Oaklawn, another stalker and closer and has beat Dangerfield twice recently. Don't ignore him. #11 The Rogue Diesel is one who has been this distance, did well at it and deserves a look, despite his 15-1 morning line.  #14 River Echo won at Oaklawn last time out, the distance could be a challenge and the outside post hurts. #12 She Might Fell deserves a look. She's won at Oaklawn, and hasn't been more than a length off the winner in her last three. #7 Wickets Way is a deep closer, that might work at today's distance and was gaining on Dangerfield in his last in the stretch to finish third. A very challenging final race ! 


Good luck today!

I haven't decided how I'll play the card. I could try a couple of Pick 3's or just settle on some exactas...tough to say. A  Pick 4 is also a possibility with: 

Race 11:  1-4-8-11
Race 12:  4-6-9-12
Race 13:  4-5-10-11
Race 14:  1-5 11-12

Cost: $144


paulie
xxxxx