Oaklawn Results -- 5/3/20

The meet at Oaklawn ends for the spring and we jumped headlong into races 11-14 (the Late Pick 4). Oops, there wasn't any water in the pool. It was a typical final race on Saturday at the Arkansas track, but we found a way around it, as I'll explain later. 

On the day, we gave you 20 horses to consider. One of them scratched (Improbable in Race 12). 

Out of the 19 that remained, we had (3) winners, (4) seconds and (3) thirds. That's a very good 53% "in the money" percentage. When you look at the 12 possible "payout" positions for four races, we filled 10 of them for an outstanding 83.3%. Not bad at all.

I watched most of the Saturday card on television and pondered how I would attack the last four races. Yesterday, I outlined a possible late Pick 4, but -- as the day drew on, and I investigated the final race more and more -- it became clear to me that there were actually more than the six potential horses I gave out yesterday that could legitimately win. 

So, I did this:...for my only wager of the day:  

Charlatan and Gouvernor Morris looked like the two "to beat" in Race 11, so I started the late Pick 4 with them. And, they finished first and second, which was a good way to start. 
Charlatan looked so very impressive and Baffert has a monster on his hands with that one.

Race 12 presented a bit of a challenge, so I used the six horses I outlined in yesterday's picks. We "swept the board" there...By My Standards getting the win, Warrior's Charge took second and Mr Freeze, who was my top pick in the race, faded to third. We were still alive, though. 

Race 13, the second division of the Arkansas Derby, look like a three horse race. I put Nadal, King Guillermo and Wells Bayou in the ticket. Nadal looked as good as advertised and "the King" followed him home for second, so -- we were alive going into the final leg.

I gave you six horses, originally,  for Race 14. Upon further reflection, I added three more. So, I had nine entries in that leg. I'm glad I did, because one of the late additions, Take Charge D'Oro, ended up winning. He's out of Take Charge Indy, a horse I loved back in his running days, and was usable at 19-1 odds. Two of my original picks, River Echo and Dangerfield tried to get to him down the stretch in the 1-3/4 mile affair, but, he hung on. 

So, the investment was a hefty $162 for the late Pick 4, based on a 50 cent bet, but it returned $232.25 -- so I made $70 on the wager. 

I followed my thinking that the last race is always a mess at Oaklawn on Saturday -- so go deep into tthe pool --  and, for once, it paid off. I had originally laid out a $144 investment on Saturday article, so it was just an $18 addition. 

I guess the adage here is "never be afraid to spend a little more, if the return has big possibilities". 

When will I post another Paulie's Picks column? 

That depends on when Churchill starts running. I've head that they could start as early as May 14th. It will be, of course, racing with no spectators/fans allowed in -- but, at least it's something. 

Some payouts from the sequence yesterday: 

Race 11 -- Charlatan paid $2.80 to win, as a prohibitive "odds on" favorite. 
Race 12 -- By My Standards went off at 9/2 and got you $11 on a $2 dollar win wager.
Race 13 -- Nadal won at 4/5 odds -  a $3.80 win payout. The Pick 3 was worth $9.30.
Race 14 -- Take Charge D'Oro returned $39.60 to win. The Pick 3 got you $159.40. 

It was a good day, mostly.

After a morning of handicapping, I mixed the first of several "bourbon 'n rocks" and decided to enjoy the racing. Little did I know that my laptop would crash shortly before I was scheduled to join our weekly CARDINAL COUPLE RADIO HOUR PODCAST. I had to troubleshoot it, shut it down and go through a restart. I joined the show late. I still don't know what happened. I have trouble, at times, connecting with Skype -- which is where we emanate from. Maybe that caused it.  

The Jim Beam Black tasted just fine and I treated the wife and I to a little grilled barbecued chicken and roasted corn from the "Green Egg" later in the day. It was a beautiful day outside here in Louisville. The last couple of Derby Days have involved rain, so ...it figures yesterdday would be great, right? 

I reflected on how I spent previous Derby Days. A fun-filled day that involves going to a long-standing, traditional Derby Day party, sipping "beverages" and "accepting attendee prognostications" on the Derby Day card. Watching and flirting with all the pretty women in attendance (under the surveillance of my wife, naturally)  and "shooting the bull" with old and new friends. 

I hope Derby Day returns to May next year. We'll see how the "first Saturday in Sept." turns out and if the annual party I attend takes place. We'll see what society and the Coronavirus restrictions are then. Until then, remember....we ARE all in this together. Do the right thing. 

We'll see you down the road. 

paulie
xxxxx