Churchill Downs Results for 5/16/20

Opening day at Churchill. A sloppy mess early, but, track conditions did improve to "good" as the day wore on.. Scratches were huge in yesterday's success/failures, so let's look at them first. 

I gave you 20 horses to consider yesterday. Out of those, a total of eight were scratched -- so 12 of my runners actually broke from the gate in races 8-11. The two turf races were moved to the dirt, which changed the handicapping angles and thoughts. But, I stayed with my picks, mostly done by considering all the changes in the surfaces and nature of the races. In race eight, three of my six picks were scratched. In race nine, three of my four picks "bit the dust". All four of my picks actually survived in race 10 and two of my six got removed in race 11. 

Out of the 12 runners I had still "alive" -- I had (2) winners, a place and a show. That 25% "in the money" isn't great, but, given the circumstances...it was the result. I missed winning the final race by a "head bob", Race nine was the killer on the day, with just one horse surviving the scratches -- he didn't "hit the board" and effectively killed my pick four wager. 

That wager was just a $24 attempt at a .50 cent bet. I used three horse in race eight, one in race nine, four in race 10 and four in race 11. 

The Pick Four paid a whopping $2127.85 on a .50 cent wager.  The numbers were: 

1,4,6,7,8,11,15,16,17
6
8
2 

The huge number of runners in race eight listd in the Pick 4 payout was because of the scratches in the race. I had the winner.  #17 DINAR,  a horse I mentioned you should consider if the race moved to dirt from the turf. Tyler Gaffalione guided the winner. 

Race nine was a 9/2 shot winner in #6 SACRED OATH. My lone selection (#12 Admire) ran fourth. David Cohen was the jockey

Race 10 was a win for #8 FOUR GRACES. I had him and he won at 7/2 odds and paid $9.40. A nice ride by Julian Leparoux

Race 11 "blew up" -- so it seems the syndrome has followed the horses from Oaklawn to Churchill in the final race on Saturday. A 13-1 shot in #2 REAGAN'S EDGE won and paid $27.00. I chased him home with the second and third place finishers (#3 Call on Mischief and #4 Karek). And, as mentioned earlier, it was a "head bob" between Reagan's Edge and Call on Mischief.  Call on Mischief made a strong stretch move, took the lead and looked like he was going to win, but, Reagan's Edge kept gaining from mid-pack, passed the others and basically caught the leader at the wire to win. 

That's a bad beat. I can't blame Brian Hernandez, Jr for his ride on Call on Mischief. He just got beat by a slightly better horse at the wire and it was a perfectly timed ride on Reagan's Edge by Jose Lezcano. 

We'll try again tomorrow. I don't normally do this, but, I'll post some picks for Sunday's card later today.

And, of course, I'll be back next Saturday, which looks lke it's going to be a HUGE day with multiple stakes races on the Churchill card. 


paulie
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