Ellis Park Results -- 7/4/20

I took on the late Pick 4 at Ellis Park yesterday an had a wonderful day of results!

I outlined 16 horses for you i the four races, had one "scratch" on me -- so 15 went to the gate. I had four winners, two seconds and two thirds, for a 53% "in the money" percentage. When you look at the 12 possible "payout" spots in those four races, I had eight of the 12 -- for 66%.

The play was simple.   3x4x4x4  for a  $96 --.50 cent Pick 4 wager. 

Race 6 got me off to a good start when Laddie Boy hit the wire first. At 6-1 odds, he brought back $13.60 with journeyman Mitchell Murrill in the saddle. 

Race 7 continued the luck when Healing won, at 3/2 odds. That was good for $5.40 on a win bet and I also had Rock On Kitten finish second and Perfect Beam hit the wire third. 

Race 8 brought favorite Sky Ride home first and the $4.80 payout to win kept the Pick 4 going as well. I also had Hillbilly Deluxe in the picks and he got third. 

Race 9 proved to be the big bomb. At 45-1, Benelux came charging down the turf stretch and passed them all to win. I had him in the picks, as well as the second place finisher Elite Class. A $93.40 payout to win for #5. 

How did I come up with this long-shot? Two reasons. First, he had under-rated Adam Beschizza in the saddle. A great Fair Grounds jockey who I thought had a chance. 

Secondly, outside posts don't do very well in longer grass races at Ellis, so I covered the bet with the #4 and the #5 post positions. The final running order was 5-4-6, so that's something to keep in mind for down the road. Honestly, I had considered a sweeping bet of 1-6 in the final leg, keeping in the tradition of going deep in the final. 

I got back $947 on the late Pick 4.  I was surprised how high the payout was and I figured a lot of the final race plays had to go on the two Michael Maker and the one Brad Cox trained runners in the race. Those posts were #9, #10 and #12 though...and I wondered about their chances, even though I did use the #9 and #10 in my picks -- with the #4 and #5. 

It looks like Ellis has adopted the "bombs away in the final" philosophy that we saw at Oaklawn. Another thing to maybe watch and consider, when Ellis returns after Keeneland's abbreviated meet.  . 

Both the first and second place finishers in Race 9 were out of sire Will Take Charge, also. I'm not sure how significant that is, but it is interesting. 

We'll take the win gladly.

Next week, Keeneland drops in a small, one week meet and we'll look at it. 


paulie
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