Saratoga Results 7-25-20

An O.K. day yesterday in my Saratoga prognostications. I fell short of the intended objective -- hitting the late Pick 4 -- but had a few winners and exactas. 

I had all 16 horses that I had in my picks from yesterday go to post. Out of them, I had three winners, three seconds and a third. That's a 44% "in the money" percentage. We captured seven of the 12 possible "payout" spots in the four race sequence...good for a 58% percentage. A little lower than it the past weeks. 

The 9th Race really stymied me. None of my four picks hit the board and the winner (Turbo Drive) paid $36.60 to win. 

I started out the Pick 4 well, with my top pick Prioritize hitting the wire first and my second choice Money Moves finishing second. That exacta paid $26.60 and if you tossed my fifth pick in...Locally Owned -- you got rewarded with a $113 trifecta. 

Race 10 -- The Vanderbilt Handicap -- was just a four house race and my top picks finished one, two, three and fourth. Volatile handled the others easily and paid $2.60 to win. The exacta returned $8.90

In Race 11, I had the exacta of Timeless Journey ($8.00) to win, and Micromillion. That combo paid $30.60. 


The Pick 4 returned $893.  It would have been nice to have, but we can't win them all, I guess. 

I'll give it a go again next Saturday. Wither Saratoga or maybe Ellis Park, I'll look at the respective cards and make the call then. 



paulie
xxxxx

Saratoga Selections 7/25/20

A challenging late Pick 4 at Saratoga today, so let's get to it! 

As usual, if any scratches occur, I'll jump in with the changes on selections -- 
so be sure to check back! 


RACE 8 -- Optional Claiming -- 62K -- 1-1/8th mile

6 -- PRIORITIZE
1 -- MONEY MOVES
2 -- DYNAMAX PRIME
3 -- PARSIMONY


RACE 9 -- ALW -- 64K -- 1-1/16th mile  (TURF) 

4 -- BARLEEWON
7 -- MO READY
3 -- SIMPLY
12 -- STANHOPE


RACE 10 -- VANDERBILT HANDICAP -- 250K -- Six Furlongs

2 -- WHITMORE
3 -- FIRENZE FIRE
4 -- VOLATILE
5 -- MIND CONTROL


RACE 11 -- MAIDEN CLAIMING -- 40K -- 1-1/16TH mile  (TURF) 

10 -- BABY GIRL
11 -- FRENCHIE FROU FROU
6 -- MICROMILLION
5 -- TIMELESS JOURNEY 


Betting strategy: 

I'll stick with just trying to hit the Late Pick 4 today, I'm "up" on the Saratoga meet and can afford to go a little deep today.

In Race 8, I'll take my top four picks and add #8 Locally Owned.

In Race 9, I'm going with my top three picks

In Race 10, once again, my top three picks

In Race 11, I'll go deep and take my top four picks, plus add #2 Eighty Seven North, #8 Go Zappem and #7 Brouia. I'm following my theory to "not weep and go deep" in the final leg with this bunch of maiden claimers.

The Play: 

Race 8:      1,2,3,6,8
Race 9:      3,4,7
Race 10:    2,3,4
Race 11:    2,5,6,7,8,10,11

Cost:  $157.50


Good luck today and bet 'em however you like!


paulie
xxxxx

Saratoga and Haskell Results 7/18/20

An interesting day of racing on Saratoga's opening Saturday yesterday and success. We also saw a thrilling 2020 version of the Haskell that had Authentic barely hold on against a hard-charging NY Traffic to win as the odds-on favorite. 

I gave you five races that I handicapped. The Late Pick 4 at Saratoga and the Haskell. A total of 19 horses (there was one late scratch in the 11th race at Saratoga. Out of those, I had five winners, three seconds and two thirds. That's a 53% "in the money percentage. Out of the 15 possible "payout" slots, I had 10 of them, for a 67% success rate. 

I outlined a late Pick 4 strategy that cost $144 and hit for $346.75, so that went well at Saratoga. I also suggested a trifecta play at Monmouth for the Haskell and it hit for me but it paid less than I bet on it, so, I will go back to the old saying "We can pick winners but we can't pick what we'll get paid". A key scratch in the Haskell shortened the field, so that hurt our payout possibilities. 

So, at Saratoga: 

Race 8:  Shalako came flying down the middle of the stretch late to get the win and rewarded us handsomely with a $27.80 payout. He was my fourth pick in the race, and I'm glad I went four-deep there, none of my other three picks hit the board. 

Race 9:  Digital Age tracked the early pace, went four wide on the final turn and steadily progressed down the stretch to get a one-length win over a 25-1 shot. He was the 6-5 favorite in the race and the only one of my four picks that hit the board. 

Race 10:  Paris Lights got the perfect ride from Tyler Gafflione, He ran behind second place finisher Crystal Ball to the top of the stretch, pulled even and then engaged him in a long stretch duel to win by a head. That was one, exciting race. Paris Lights went off at 2-1 and I had the won, place and show finishers in the race. The favorite, Tonalist's Shape, appeared to have equipment problems during the running and finished out of the money. 

Race 11:  I went "deep" here, as I like to do in the final leg of Pick 4's, but there was no need to do so yesterday. My top pick Midnight Whiskey broke alertly, went to the rail and led every step of the way. Favorite Papa Luke engaged him on the turn, ran with him but never got his nose in front of him. Another exciting stretch duel. 

A good, profitable day. We'll "give it a go" next week and probably head back to Saratoga, but will check the card to see what offers the best racing. 


paulie
xxxxx

Saratoga and Haskell Selections -- 7/18/20

A very challenging late Pick 4 at Saratoga today and the Haskell Invitational today at Monmouth highlight today's selections. WE'll "do" Saratoga first, and then list the Haskell.

If there are any scratches, I'll jump back in here to reflect those, so be sure to check back before post time of the 8th. race. 


RACE 8 -- CLAIMING 25K -- 1-1/8TH MILES

3 -- CREATIVE STYLE
9 -- HAMMERIN AIMER
1 -- HOFFENHEIM
7 -- SHLAKO 



RACE 9 -- OPT. CLAIMING 80K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (INNER TURF) 

6 -- SET PIECE
7 -- DIGITAL AGE
2 -- RAMSEY SOLUTION
3 -- IT'S ALL RELEVANT(scratched)
4 -- NOBLE INDY


RACE 10 -- CCA OAKS 350K -- GI -- 1-1/8TH MILES

1 -- TONALIST'S SHAPE
5 -- CRYSTAL BALL
6 -- PARIS LIGHTS
2 -- ANTOINETTE



RACE 11 -- MAIDEN 62K -- SIX FURLONGS

4 -- MIDNIGHT WHISKEY
3 -- QUICK RETURN(scratched)
5 -- MAKE MOTIME
7 -- PAPA LUKE
2 -- AMERICAN PIPER



THE HASKELL (MONMOUTH) 

2 -- AUTHENTIC
1 -- DR. POST
7 --  NY TRAFFIC
3 -- JESUS' TEAM


Today's suggested plays

SARATOGA

I'll chase the late Pick 4 at Saratoga, and cover myself by going deep in the last leg. Trifecta's could be a good way to make a little profit today, so you might consider those: 

PICK 4: 

Race 8:--   1,3,7,9
Race 9 --   2,4 6,7
Race 10 -- 1,5,6
Race 11 -- 2,4,5,7,9,10

.50 cent variety will cost $144. 


HASKELL

I'll do  $1 TRI BOX WITH 1,2,3,7  and hope for a "price" on top in a race that looks like it's Authentic's to lose. 

Good luck and stay cool today!  

paulie
xxxxx

Keeneland Results -- 7/11/20

An exciting day of stakes racing at Keeneland yesterday, with six stakes races on the card. 

I handicapped each of the six for you and had some successes. 

No scratches in the 24 horses I suggested. (Six races and four horses per race). Out of the picks, I had five winners, six seconds and five thirds. That's a 66% "in the money" percentage. When you consider there were 18 "payouts" available, we filled 16 of them for a sparkling 88% accuracy. 

Let's review: 

Race 4 -- In the Appalachian Stakes, we swept the board with my fourth pick (Enola Gay) knocking off my third pick (Walk In Marrakesh) who finished second, and my top pick (Alms) coming in third. The winner paid $12.60 to win and we gave you the exacta ($55.60) and the trifecta ($85.00). 

Race 5 -- Favorite Gurana, my top pick in the Madison Stakes, held off the stubborn Mia Mischief (my second pick) and Bell's the One (my third pick) and paid $3.00 to win. The exacta was worth $15.00 and the trifecta $39.80 and I had them both. 

Race 6 -- The Shakertown Stakes was the only real surprise of the stakes races, as 10-1 Leinster, bested my fourth pick (Totally Boss) and my second pick (Bound For Nowhere).
A $22.40 win payout, if you were lucky enough to have it. The exacta returned $145 and the trifecta a whopping $1415.20. The sad news here is that I've used Leinster here at Paulie Picks plenty of times in the past, but had him rated fifth in this field and put in Extravagent Kid instead..., who did absolutely nothing...along with my top pick Wildman Jack, who must have stopped for a dog and beer somewhere in the backstretch. . I could kick myself....

Race 7 -- In the Ashland Stakes, Speech, (my second pick) got the best of my top pick Venetian Harbor, for the win. I also gave you the third place finisher (Envoutante). A $10.00 win ticket for you. The exacta brought back $20.00 and the trifecta paid $42.00 

Race 8 -- Rushing Fall blew them away in the Jenny Wiley Stakes and she was my top pick. My second pick Jolie Olimpica ran second. $3.80 to win on Rushing Fall. An exacta payout of $20.20 and the trifecta paid $62.40.

Race 9 -- The main event, the Bluegrass Stakes, gave you Art Collector (my second pick) knocking off my first pick Swiss Skydiver pretty easily in the stretch. My third pick Rushie far. far back in third. $6.60 to win on Art Collector, the exacta got you $24.20 and the trifecta was worth $122.40. 

So, my suggestion on a possible Pick 6 didn't hit. I did hit one of the two Pick 3's I tried. 

The play yesterday was probably playing trifectas. If you had spent $48 per race, your layout would have been $288. You would have gotten back $352. I kept it simple and just did six $2 exactas, so I paid out $144 and got back $134. 

Keeneland ends today (Sunday) and the horses return to Ellis. Saratoga starts next week also and I'll probably opt out and handicap the caards in New York instead of the Ellis card. 

See you then!

paulie
xxxxx 

Keeneland Selections -- 7/11/20

What a day of racing in store for us today at Keeneland!  Six Stakes races (three Grade II and three Grade I) on the card.

Let's look at these stakes, beginning with the fourth race (which also starts a $1 Pick Six). 


RACE 4 -- APPALACHIAN STAKES -- GRADE II -- 150K -- ONE MILE (TURF)

4 -- ALMS
5 -- PASSION FACTOR
6 -- WALK IN MARRAKESH
2 -- ENOLA GAY


RACE 5 -- MADISON STAKES -- GRADE I -- 250K -- 7 FURLONGS

5 -- GURANA
8 -- BELL'S THE ONE
7 -- MIA MISCHIEF
3 -- SALLY'S CURLIN


RACE 6 -- SHAKERTOWN STAKES -- GRADE II -- 150K -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) 

2 -- WILDMAN JACK
8 -- BOUND FOR NOWHERE
1 - -EXTRAVAGANT KID
10 -- TOTALLY BOSS


RACE 7 -- ASHLAND STAKES -- GRADE I -- 400K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

2 -- VENETIAN HARBOR
6 -- SPEECH
3 -- BONNY SOUTH
4 -- ENVOUTANTE


RACE 8 -- JENNY WILEY STAKES -- GRADE I -- 250K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF)

4 -- RUSHING FALL
6 -- JOLIE OLIMPICA
7 -- ALTEA
8 - -TOINETTE


RACE 9 -- BLUE GRASS STAKES -- GRADE II -- 600K -- 1-1/8TH MILE

7 -- SWISS SKYDIVER
3 -- ART COLLECTOR
10 -- RUSHIE
1 -- SHIVAREE



So, how do we play today's card?  I'm looking at (2) Pick 3's  (Races 4-6 and  Races 7-9) 

If you want a Pick 6 play, I might suggest

Race 4 -- 4.5
Race 5 -- 5,7,8
Race 6 -- 2,8
Race 7 -- 2,6
Race 8 -- 4
Race 9 -- 3,7 

It's a $72 play and a bit "chalky" but I like it and may toss it in. 

(If scratches occur today that affect the picks, I'll jump back in to update, so be sure to check back for any updated picks.

Win some money, honey! 


paulie
xxxxx


RACE 8 --   

Ellis Park Results -- 7/4/20

I took on the late Pick 4 at Ellis Park yesterday an had a wonderful day of results!

I outlined 16 horses for you i the four races, had one "scratch" on me -- so 15 went to the gate. I had four winners, two seconds and two thirds, for a 53% "in the money" percentage. When you look at the 12 possible "payout" spots in those four races, I had eight of the 12 -- for 66%.

The play was simple.   3x4x4x4  for a  $96 --.50 cent Pick 4 wager. 

Race 6 got me off to a good start when Laddie Boy hit the wire first. At 6-1 odds, he brought back $13.60 with journeyman Mitchell Murrill in the saddle. 

Race 7 continued the luck when Healing won, at 3/2 odds. That was good for $5.40 on a win bet and I also had Rock On Kitten finish second and Perfect Beam hit the wire third. 

Race 8 brought favorite Sky Ride home first and the $4.80 payout to win kept the Pick 4 going as well. I also had Hillbilly Deluxe in the picks and he got third. 

Race 9 proved to be the big bomb. At 45-1, Benelux came charging down the turf stretch and passed them all to win. I had him in the picks, as well as the second place finisher Elite Class. A $93.40 payout to win for #5. 

How did I come up with this long-shot? Two reasons. First, he had under-rated Adam Beschizza in the saddle. A great Fair Grounds jockey who I thought had a chance. 

Secondly, outside posts don't do very well in longer grass races at Ellis, so I covered the bet with the #4 and the #5 post positions. The final running order was 5-4-6, so that's something to keep in mind for down the road. Honestly, I had considered a sweeping bet of 1-6 in the final leg, keeping in the tradition of going deep in the final. 

I got back $947 on the late Pick 4.  I was surprised how high the payout was and I figured a lot of the final race plays had to go on the two Michael Maker and the one Brad Cox trained runners in the race. Those posts were #9, #10 and #12 though...and I wondered about their chances, even though I did use the #9 and #10 in my picks -- with the #4 and #5. 

It looks like Ellis has adopted the "bombs away in the final" philosophy that we saw at Oaklawn. Another thing to maybe watch and consider, when Ellis returns after Keeneland's abbreviated meet.  . 

Both the first and second place finishers in Race 9 were out of sire Will Take Charge, also. I'm not sure how significant that is, but it is interesting. 

We'll take the win gladly.

Next week, Keeneland drops in a small, one week meet and we'll look at it. 


paulie
xxxxx

Ellis Park Entries --7/4/20

We'll stay in Kentucky and take on the late Pick 4 at Ellis Park today.


Happy 4th, everyone!


RACE 6 -- OPT. CLAIMING -- 10K -- 1 MILE (TURF)

9 -- GLADTOBEHERE
2 -- LADDIE BOY
6 -- BLUE STEEL
5 -- MESSIAH



RACE 7 -- CLAIMING -  10K -- 1 MILE (DIRT) 

2 -- ROCK ON KITTEN
3 -- PERFECT BEAM
7 -- HEALING
1 -- ZU SOON



RACE 8 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT  -- 37K -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS -- (TURF)

1 -- SKY RIDE
6 -- HILLBILLY DANCE
3 -- PER DIEM
5 -- TWELVE ROCKS


RACE 9 -- MAIDEN CLAIMING -- 3OK -- 1-1/16TH MILE -- (TURF) 

10 - SUNRISE KITTEN
9 -- CARMEL BAY
4 -- ELITE CLASS
5 -- BENELUX


paulie
xxxxx