CHURCHILL RESULTS -- 6/26/21

 It was a so-so day in my selections for Churchill Downs on the final day of their spring meet. I took on the final four races of the days -- all stakes races -- have had two winners, three places and four shows. That's a 45% "in the money" percentage, lower than I normally achieve. When you consider I had nine of the twelve horses that hit the board in the four races...that 75% success raate looks a little better, but I did not take down the Pick 4.  Let's recap it: 

RACE 9 -- DOUBLE THUNDER (4-1) used a big stretch move late in the race to skip by two of my picks GLACIAL and VODKA N WATER. It was a well-timed ride by Johnny V for Todd Pletcher. .

RACE 10 -- I was high on SET PIECE (8-5) in the Wise Dan Stakes and he delivered. I also had SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN and RIDE A COMET to complete the trifecta, Florent Geroux did the piloting for Brad Cox, a Churchill favorite. 

RACE 11 -- MAXFIELD (2-5) is a monster and had no trouble in the Stephen Foster Stakes. Now that he's healthy, all Jose Ortiz had to do is not fall off for Brendan Walsh.  That move on the final turn was awesome. I also had SPRAWL for show. I've found my Breeders Cup Classic horse, if all goes well for him this summer.  

RACE 12 -- NAVRATILOVA (9-1) took them wire to wire in the final and I overlooked her. I did have TOBY'S HEART, who lost by a heartbreaking nose at the wire, for place and NEW BOSS got third

The Pick 4 returned $134 on the .50 cent attempt. 

It wasn't a Churchill meet where I had as much success as I have in prior meets. WHere do we go from here? I expect Saratoga and Ellis Park will help bide the time until they end up back at the Twin Spires in mid-September. We'll give it a go. 

paulie

  

CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTIONS -- 6/26/21

 

A huge day of racing at Churchill this Saturday, with seven stakes races on tap ! 

I'm handicapping the final four (Races 9-12) which include a nice mix of two on the turf and two on the dirt -- and -- two Grade II and one Grade III contests. 

RACE 9 -- BASHFORD MANOR STAKES -- GIII -- $150K -- SIX FURLONGS 

4 -- GLACIAL

1 -- VODKA AND WATER

2 -- LANSDOWN

9 -- RED RUN 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALS0 -- 3-- TAPPED OFF) 

RACE 10 -- WISE DAN STAKES -- GII -- $300K -- 1-1/16TH MILE  (TURF)

1 -- SET PIECE

3 -- SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN

7 -- RIDE A COMET

8 -- FIELD PASS

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO -- 5 -- HIERACHY) 

RACE 11 -- STEPHEN FOSTER STAKES -- GII -- $600K -- 1-1/8TH MILE

8 -- MAXFIELD

5 -- SILVER DUST

9 -- VISITANT

4 -- SPRAWL 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO -- 7 -- SOUTH BEND) 

RACE 12 -- TEPIN STAKES -- $`150K -- 1 MILE (TURF) 

8 -- TOBY'S HEART

13 -- ARM CANDY 

1 -- INVINCABLE GIRL 

10 -- NEW BOSS 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO -- 7 -- ADVENTURING) 

THE PLAY 

I'll chase a late Pick 4 with my picks, but there could be money to be made with trifectas today. If you are looking to "shorten up" your cost, you might look at just going two deep in thee the Stephen Foster Race 11) , with 8- Maxfield and 5-- Silver Dust , but, this is a wide open card today and there competition is top notch. 

As of this morning, the track is fast and the turf is firm. I'll try to update scratches as best I can here, temps will be extremely warm and humid, so there might be a couple or so.

Bet 'em anyway you like and good luck today !   

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS RESULTS -- 6/19/21

 Not the best of days at Churchill yesterday in terms of hitting the late Pick 4, but, I had three winners out of the final four races  Race 9 was the fly in the ointment, 13-1 WITEZ skipping down the stretch and knocking off my choice Take Charge Ro, 

All in all, I had three winners, three places and a show out of the 18 horses I selected yesterday I did have two scratches.. That 38% is a bit lower than I usually score.  Filling seven of the 12 "payable" spots available in the four races is 58..3%, aalso a bit down from previous weeks. 

Here 's how it went: 

RACE 7 did bring my top pick AASR home first at 2-1 and TOP GUNNER, another of my picks, got there in time for third, 

RACE 8 --This was where WITEZ ruined the plans, the Ian Wilkes/Chris Landeros duo won at 13-1. I did get TAKE CHARGE RO for second, but that was it. EMPRESS ELEANOR scratched and maybe affected the way the race was run.

RACE 9 -- I saw it as a three horses race, and one of the , in BELL'S THE ONE (2-1) did get the win over another one I really liked in SCONSIN. No excuses for Sconsin, he dueled in the stretch but was second best.  

RACE 10 -- MINER'S QUEEN (5-1) was a nice pick of mine and took the final race.

The Pick 4 returned $755 on the .50 Pick 4 wager.  A $210 Pick 4 wager  (5x7x3x4) would have captured the prize.  With the scratches, I spent $120 and was done after Race 9.  

The key yesterday would have been just to go very deep in Race 9. I had WITEZ ranked as the seventh best horse in the race, but he proved me wrong. Sometimes, the horses just don't run the way you expect and handicap them to. I guess that's why they call it gambling. 

We'll give it a go next Saturday.

Happy Father's day to all you Dads out there ! 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTIONS -- 6/19/21

 A HOT DAY FOR RACING AT CHURCHILL DOWNS TODAY...temperatures expected to be in the mid nineties and the chance of rain mostly gone by post time. A good close to today's card, with a claiming, optional claiming, stakes and maiden race to handicap. Two on the dirt and two on the grass. Let's see what we got: 

RACE 8 -- CLAIMING -- 50K -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS

5 --AASR

8 -- PIRATE RICK 

9 -- MISTER K

4 -- TOP GUNNER

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER: 2 -- EXTREME FORCE) 

RACE 9 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- 62K -- 1-1/8TH mile (TURF)  

5 -- LAKE LUCERNE

7 -- ENJOYITWHILEWECAN

11 -- EMPRESS ELEANOR  scratched

4 -- TAKE CHARGE RO

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER: 12 - GUILTY) 

RACE 10 -- ROXELANA STAKES -- $110K -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS

5 --SCONSIN

4 --  BELL'S THE ONE

3 -- FOUR GRACES

6 -- JUNGLE JUICE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER:  1- SHESOMAJESTIC) 

RACE 11 -- MAIDEN -- 100K -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) 

7 -- HONORABLY

8 -- MO TEMPTATION

1 -- MINER'S QUEEN

9 -- QUALITY OF MERCY  scratched

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER:  4 -- LIAM'S NESSY) 

THE PLAY

I'll chase a late Pick 4, using my top five picks in Races 8 & 9, my top three picks in Race 10 and my top four picks in Race 11. That'll get you "out" for $150 on the .50 version of the Pick 4. In the feature, SCONSIN has been a favorite of mine for a long time and I love Tyler Gaffalione on board for Greg Foley...one could "single" here in the 10th., but I'll respect BELL'S THE ONE closing kick and FOUR GRACES early speed.   

2,4,5 8,9/4,5,7.11.12/3,4,5/1,7,8,9

Play 'em any way you like, though, and let's "give it a go" at the Twin Spires today ! 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS RESULTS -- 6/12/21

 It was an interesting night of racing at Churchill Saturday Night. I played the final four races on the card and no favorites got the win in Races 8-11. My picks, though, didn't do too badly. I gave you 18 horses to consider and out of those, I had three winners, four places and four shows. That's a 61% "in the money" percentage. When you figure there were 12 "payable spots" available and I hit 11 of them, that's a not-too-shabby 92% success rate. 

Let's take a look: 

RACE 8 -- MALLOY surprised the field at 10-1 and got the win with Adam Beschizza on board. I gave you that one, as well as FABRICATE for show. This was a nice trifecta if you could come up with the place finisher (I couldn't) in Sianara. paying $1620.00 on the .50 cent attempt. I did lose ALTERED SHOT to a scratch as part of my original picks and CODE NAME KATE, who was my fill-in, never fired at all. 

RACE 9 -- The Mint Julep Stakes also went the way of a longshot with 12-1 MINTD surprising the rest in the turf stretch. My pick (and the huge favorite) JULIET FOXTROT faded to second and another  one I liked, in SHESONTHEWARPATH, gathered the show money. Another awesome trifecta payout in $77.65. It's interesting to note tht the two from overseas -- MINTD (Ireland) and JULIET FOXTROT (Great Britian) finished 1-2 on the Churchill grass. Seeing two of my picks scratch in CRYSTAL BALL and SISTER HANAN was disappointing. 

RACE 10 -- MR TIP (4-1) proved to be the best here, Tyler Gaffalione teaming up with trainer Michael Maker to get it done. I gave out that one, as well as place horse WINTER POLL and third place runner HANDY. Another big favorite, in SOTHERN PASSAGE, missed the board. The trifecta was $69.40 and the Pick 3 returned a very nice $504.25. 

RACE 11 -- A slight surprise in seeing my "also watch" pick SEMBLE JUSTE get the win at 9/2 for Brian Hernandez, Jr.. but I felt I had to include her. I also had second place (and favorite) with SMITH'S POINT and BOLD TACTICS in the show spot. A trifecta worth $31. a Pick 3 that returned $241.50 and a Pick 4 worth $2852.

I altered my original plans to chase the Pick 4 (I wouldn't have had it, unfortunately) and tried four "rolling" trifecta boxes. That $120 layout ($30 per race) returned me $100, so I ended up losing a "Jackson" on the sequence.

I did get lucky earlier in the card with a win/place bet in the first race on Brian Hernandez, Jr and CLIMB AND MAINTAIN at 6-1 odds, so I did end up slightly ahead on the evening.  A tip to remember -- trainer Kenny McPeek does pretty good with maiden sprinters and having BJ Jr in the saddle helps. 

We'll give it a "go" next week -- probably Churchill again, but you'll have to check back to see if I stay in Kentucky or go wandering with my handicapping. 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTIONS -- 6/12/21

 It's a return to Downs After Dark...night racing at Churchill Downs...and it can be a fun time with the music (rock tonight), crowds and such. 

I'm looking at the final four races on the card and it's a good mixture of turf and dirt, stakes and claiming and seven furlongs or better in the final four. 

RACE 8 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING 75K -- SEVEN FURLONGS 

10 -- JOYFUL CADENCE

9 -- LADY FROSTED

12 -- ALTERED SHOT (scratched) 

8 -- FABRICATE

(IF SCRACHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER: 4 -- CODE NAME KATE,  11 -- MALLOY) 

RACE 9 -- MINT JULEP STAKES -- GIII -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF) 

9 -- CRYSTAL BALL

2 -- JULIET FOXTROT

11 -- SHE'SONTHEWARPATH 

3 -- HENDY WOODS

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER:  8 -- TUNED)

RACE 10 -- ALLOWANCE -- 50K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

4 -- SOUTHERN PASSAGE

6 -- HANDY 

2 -- MR TIP 

7 -- KATZARELLI 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER:  3 -- WINTER POOL)

RACE 11 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- 100K -- 1 MILE

4  -- BOLD TACTICS

2 -- KIZZY B 

7 -- SECOND ROW CENTER

3 -- SMITH'S POINT 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER:  5 -- SEMBLE JUSTE) 

The Play 

Everyone loves Juliet Foxtrot in the featured ninth it seems, I'm also strong on Crystal Ball, who tries the turf for the first time and should LOVE it !  I'll play those two, in Race 9, in a pick 4 with my other selections in Races 8,10 and 11 and also include the "also eligible/if scratches occur" horses -- although you could probably shorten up Race 10 to my top three selections if you are looking to economize.  Your cost is $125 the first way and $75 the second option. 

With the full fields, there could also be a bit of money to be made with the old standby, the .50 cent, five horse trifecta box. 

I'll try to jump back in with scratches as, or if,  they occur. 

Play 'em anyway you like ! 

paulie

BELMONT RESULTS -- 6/5/21

 A tough assignment yesterday, taking on the Pick 5 on Belmont Stakes Day that ran from Races 7-11. But I came through it pretty well. Despite a few key scratches, I ended up with 22 horses for you to consider in the five races. Out of those, I had four winners, four seconds, and three thirds. That's a 50% "in the money" percentage. When you consider there were 15 "payable spots" available and I filled 11 of them, that's a 74% success rate

 Let's take a look:  

RACE 7 -- Losing my top two pick (Valiance and Swiss Skydiver) to scratches was a bit of a blow, but my remaining three horses ended up running 1-2 3. LETRUSKA (6/5) hit the wire first, followed by  BONNY SOUTH and SHEDARESTHEDEVIL got up for show. 

RACE 8 -- This race was the only blemish on the day for me. I didn't have 7-1 winner ALTHIQA, who nudged out my pick SUMMER ROMANCE, who finished second. The scratch of probable favorite BLOWOUT was disappointing, but it was a good race to watch.

RACE 9 -- Everyone figured this was KNICKS GO as a single, but he finished out of the money. I had winner SILVER STATE (5-1), selected BY MY STANDARDS, who got second and also had MISCHEVIOUS ALEX, who rounded out the trifecta. 

RACE 10 -- DOMESTIC SPENDING was the 3/2 favorite and looked like it in the Manhattan Stakes. I had that one, plus GUFO for third. At least the Pick 3 I started in Race 9 was still alive. 

THE BELMONT STAKES -- RACE 11 -- I spent a lot of time trying to make a case for someone beating ESSENTIAL QUALITY in my handicapping studies yesterday, but it all came back to him winning. And he did at 6/5 odds. It was a thrilling stretch duel with HOT ROD CHARLIE down the stretch, I had him for second and thaat's where he ended up. ROMBAUER just couldn't catch the top two in that long, long Belmont Park stretch but held on for third, as I predicted. I even had KNOWN AGENDA correctly selected for fourth. 

That final race in my sequence gave me a double worth (on the $1 dollar wager) $32.80, a trifecta that paid $132 and a superfecta that returned $1871. I also hit the Pick 3 (Race 9-11) -- worth $114 on the .50 cent box.  That $122.50 total that I wagered in the final three races ended up being worth $2062, and that more than covered any earlier expenses.

 What's even more amazing is I did it with my top four picks in Races 9-11, not digging in to my "also consider or if scratches occur" selections. 

Sometimes, the odds-on favorite just doesn't fire, nothing is guaranteed in horse racing.... (except that someone's horse will eventually win the race).. 

I did not hit the Pick 5 in races 7-11 -- it paid $660.50 on the .50 cent wager.. Even if I had played all 22 horses I gave you and spend the $750 to wager it, I still would have lost because of Race 8. 

I don't normally do well with the New York tracks as I do in Kentucky or Florida. Especially at Belmont, and that jockey colony up there. I feel bad for Irad Ortiz, Jr not being able to ride, but it just may have helped me yesterday. That close colony of jockeys up there didn't sweep the day -- Jose Ortiz did took the 7th Race, but Mike Smith was on the winner of the 8th Race.  Ricardo Santana captured Race 9, it was Flavian Prat taking Race 10. Luis Saez was on Essential Quality in Race 11.

We'll "give it a go" next Saturday with a return to Churchill. 

paulie

. 

BELMONT SELECTIONS -- 6/5/21

 

So, we go to the third leg of the Triple Crown today at New York's Belmont Park for the Belmont Stakes. A great card to handicap, I've concentrated on the Pick 5 sequence (Races 7-11) today with my picks, but there are seven Grade I races and one Grade II affairs on the card. 

Here we go! 

RACE 7 -- OGDEN PHIPPS STAKES -- GI -- $500K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

2 -- VALIANCE (scratched)

1 -- SWISS SKYDIVER (scratched) 

3 -- LETRUSKA

5 -- SHEDARESTHEDEVIL 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 7- BONNY SOUTH) , 

RACE 8 -- JUST A GAME STAKES -- GI -- $500K -- 1 MILE (TURF) 

11 -- BLOWOUT

9 -- SUMMER ROMANCE

1 -- ZOFELLE

4 -- REGAL GLORY 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 2 -- NEW YORK GIRL) 

RACE 9 -- METROPOLIATAN HANDICAP -- GI -- $1 MILLION -- 1 MILE 

6 -- KNICKS GO

1 -- MISCHEIVIOUS ALEX

2 -- DR POST

3 -- SILVER STATE 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- BY MY STANDARDS) 

RACE 10 -- MANHATTAN STAKES -- GI -- $750K -- 1-1/4TH MILE  (TURF) 

10 -- COLONEL LIAM

7 -- CHANNEL CAT

4 -- DOMESTIC SPENDING

9 -- GUFO

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- MASTER ROAD) 

RACE 11 -- THE BELMONT STAKES -- GI -- $1.5 MILLION -- 1-1/2 MILE 

2 -- ESSENTIAL QUALITY

4 -- HOT ROD CHARLIE

3 -- ROMBAUER

6 -- KNOWN AGENDA 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 7 -- ROCK YOUR WORLD) 

THE PLAY

I will try for the Pick 5 here -- the .50cent version -- I need to "shorten it up" in a couple of races, cost-wise, if I played all four of my picks in all five races, I'd be looking aat a $512 wager. It may pay more than that, but I'm a bit hestitant about spending that much on it, with a "syndicate" backing.  

I'll go four deep in the first two legs (Races 7-8) go with my top two picks in Race 9, my top three picks in Race 10 and then my top four picks in the Belmont Stakes (Race 11)  That gets me in the sequence for $192, which is a little more managable, and doesn't hurt my yearly profit margin too much. Barring any scratches, it'll look like this: 

1,2,3,5/ 1,4,9,11/ 1,6 / 4,7,10 / 2,3,4,6

In the BELMONT STAKES, ESSENTIAL QUALITY just makes the most sense to me. Who knows how he would have done if he hadn't been bumped at the start of the Kentucky Derby. In his previous five races, he's pulled away from the field in the sstretch. And, he beat Rombauer in the Blue Grass Stakes, Hot Rod Charlie is the main threat in my thinking, he's been right there with Essential Quality in the Derby and Breeders Cup. Flavien Prat is on him, he won with Rombauer in the Preakness but is getting off him to ride "Charlie".  Of course, you get "Johnny V" as a replacement rider on Rombauer.. not a bad pickup rider at all, right?  I do think Known Agenda can return to his previous form, but I'll look to see who Todd Pletcher puts on his back. 

Good luck today ! 

paulie