BELMONT SELECTIONS -- 6/5/21

 

So, we go to the third leg of the Triple Crown today at New York's Belmont Park for the Belmont Stakes. A great card to handicap, I've concentrated on the Pick 5 sequence (Races 7-11) today with my picks, but there are seven Grade I races and one Grade II affairs on the card. 

Here we go! 

RACE 7 -- OGDEN PHIPPS STAKES -- GI -- $500K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

2 -- VALIANCE (scratched)

1 -- SWISS SKYDIVER (scratched) 

3 -- LETRUSKA

5 -- SHEDARESTHEDEVIL 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 7- BONNY SOUTH) , 

RACE 8 -- JUST A GAME STAKES -- GI -- $500K -- 1 MILE (TURF) 

11 -- BLOWOUT

9 -- SUMMER ROMANCE

1 -- ZOFELLE

4 -- REGAL GLORY 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 2 -- NEW YORK GIRL) 

RACE 9 -- METROPOLIATAN HANDICAP -- GI -- $1 MILLION -- 1 MILE 

6 -- KNICKS GO

1 -- MISCHEIVIOUS ALEX

2 -- DR POST

3 -- SILVER STATE 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- BY MY STANDARDS) 

RACE 10 -- MANHATTAN STAKES -- GI -- $750K -- 1-1/4TH MILE  (TURF) 

10 -- COLONEL LIAM

7 -- CHANNEL CAT

4 -- DOMESTIC SPENDING

9 -- GUFO

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- MASTER ROAD) 

RACE 11 -- THE BELMONT STAKES -- GI -- $1.5 MILLION -- 1-1/2 MILE 

2 -- ESSENTIAL QUALITY

4 -- HOT ROD CHARLIE

3 -- ROMBAUER

6 -- KNOWN AGENDA 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 7 -- ROCK YOUR WORLD) 

THE PLAY

I will try for the Pick 5 here -- the .50cent version -- I need to "shorten it up" in a couple of races, cost-wise, if I played all four of my picks in all five races, I'd be looking aat a $512 wager. It may pay more than that, but I'm a bit hestitant about spending that much on it, with a "syndicate" backing.  

I'll go four deep in the first two legs (Races 7-8) go with my top two picks in Race 9, my top three picks in Race 10 and then my top four picks in the Belmont Stakes (Race 11)  That gets me in the sequence for $192, which is a little more managable, and doesn't hurt my yearly profit margin too much. Barring any scratches, it'll look like this: 

1,2,3,5/ 1,4,9,11/ 1,6 / 4,7,10 / 2,3,4,6

In the BELMONT STAKES, ESSENTIAL QUALITY just makes the most sense to me. Who knows how he would have done if he hadn't been bumped at the start of the Kentucky Derby. In his previous five races, he's pulled away from the field in the sstretch. And, he beat Rombauer in the Blue Grass Stakes, Hot Rod Charlie is the main threat in my thinking, he's been right there with Essential Quality in the Derby and Breeders Cup. Flavien Prat is on him, he won with Rombauer in the Preakness but is getting off him to ride "Charlie".  Of course, you get "Johnny V" as a replacement rider on Rombauer.. not a bad pickup rider at all, right?  I do think Known Agenda can return to his previous form, but I'll look to see who Todd Pletcher puts on his back. 

Good luck today ! 

paulie