Gulfstream and Turfway Results -- 3/27/21

 I took on two tracks yesterday that had two Road to the Roses races -- Gulfstream and Turfway. I outlined eight races (both Late Pick 4's) and had a total of 34 of the horses I selected rum. Out of those, I had six winners, four seconds and three thirds. That's a "so-so" 39% "in the moeny" percentage. Out of the 24 "payable" spots in the eight races, I filled 13 of them for 54% success rate. Quite frankly, that's below my usual average. 

I did take down the Late Pick Four at Gulfstream, but, in the age old story, I didn't think it paid enough. (Do we ever?) Only good for two out of the four stakes races at Turfway, it was a weird day up at the Northern Kentucky track. 

Gulfstream 

Race 11 had my top pick Annex hit the line first at even money. I had one scratch and none of my other three choice hit the board. 

Race 12 featured my second pick 2-1 Crazy beautiful finished first. I also had Millefeuille finish second for me. Conlima disappeared in the stretch and finished out of the money, 

Race 13 brought my pick War Like Goddess home at 5-1 odds.  I also had Always Shpooing and Sorrel finish in the money for me. 

Rsce 14, the Florida Derby, belonged to Known Agenda, who I strongly recommended you include yesterday. He went off at 5-1 odds and handled Greatest Honour, the favorite, easily in the stretch. 

The Pick 4 paid $213.40 on the .50 cent bet. 

IS KNOWN AGENDA A SERIOUS DERBY CONTENDER? It wasn't a particularly fast 1-1/8th mile and, although the sweeping three-wide stretch move Known Agenda made to overcome the early speed was impressive, I'd have to put him a step below some of the California horses right now and Essential Quality. The big question is...what happened to Greatest Honour?  Do they bother to bring him to Kentucky now after that disappointing Florida Derby finish?  

TURFWAY 

Race 8 featured Outadore besting the rest and doing it as the favorite. An impressive win, in my book. 

Race 9 saw my alternate pick Visitant prove to be the rest and I didn't use him. He outran the two I like in Set Piece and Crafty Daddy.  Bye-bye Pick 4. 

Race 10 belonged to my second pick Adventuring and she was the only one of my four here to hit the board. I'm still wondering what happened to Oliviaofthedesert. 

Race 11, The Jeff Ruby Stakes, had Like The King, at 7-1 odds, go way wide at the top of the stretch but run by them all for a pretty impressive score.  The odds on favorite, and my top pick, Tarantino stumbled out of the gate and was eventually eased -- never a factor. I didn't put an of my picks on the board in this one...Gretzky The Great led them into the stretch and apparently had had enough, finishing out of the money.

So, is Like The King a serious Derby threat?

I do like the way he went to the lead. He survived an inquiry because of bumping in the stretch. The question is, if he had that much trouble in a field of ten, how will be handle almost twice that number in the Derby?  He got a good ride from Drayden Van Dyke for Wesley Ward, but I'm going to say I think he's better on poly and grass that dirt and I won't consider him a top flight contender for the Derby. 

(In case you were curious...that late Pick 4 paid $557. I never would have had it, I just didn't see Like The King as one of the top four or five horses in the final race of the sequence. I got proved wrong -- but, after all, it was run on the "poly" and the Derby isn't.) 

We'll give it a go next week.

paulie

Gulfstream Picks -- Turfway Picks -- 3/27/21

 We have several major stakes races today with Derby implications -- I'll concentrate on Gulfstream's Florida Derby today and also look at the Jeff Ruby Stakes at Turfway. 

A good stakes card at Gulfstream today, I'm looking at the Late Pick 4 (Races 11-14) as one of my plays. Also, Turfway has the Jeff Ruby Stakes, another Road to the Roses race, and I'll build a late Pick 4 around the races leading up to that --  (Races 8-11) -- as another possible play. 

GULFSTREAM

RACE 11 -- CUTLER BAY STAKES -- $100K -- 1 MILE (TURF) 

6 -- ANNEX

8 -- STEP DANCER

1 -- HYPERFOCUS

3 -- WHATMAKESSAMMYRUN 

(CONSIDER #2 -- FIGHTING FORCE IF SCRATCHES OCCUR) 

RACE 12 -- GILFSTREAM OAKS -- GII -- $200K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

1 -- CONLIMA

3 -- CRAZT BEAUTIFUL

6 -- MILLEFEUILLE

2 -- BOW BOW GIRL 

( CONSIDER #5 LEN LO LADY IF SCRATCHES OCCUR) 

RACE 13 -- ORCHID -- GII -- $100K -- 1-3/8TH MILE (TURF) 

9 -- ALWAYS SHOPPING

5 -- SORREL

7 -- DELTA'S KINGDOM

1 -- WAR LIKE GODDESS

(CONSIDER #4 MORNING MOLLY IF SCRATCHES OCCUR) 

RACE 14 -- THE FLORIDA DERBY -- GI -- $750K -- 1-1/8TH MILE

7 -- GREATEST HONOUR

1 -- NOVA RAGS

9 -- COLLABORATE

10 -- SPIELBERG

(CONSIDER #5 KNOWN AGENDA IF SCRATCHES OCCUR) 

TURFWAY 

RACE 8 -- ANIMAL KINGDOM STAKES -- 65K -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS 

4 -- OUTADORE

1 -- PICO D ORO

7 -- CHASING ARTIE

8 -- GAGETOWN 

(CONSIDER #2 ARZAK IF SCRATCHES OCCUR) 

RACE 9 -- KENTUCKY CUP CLASSIC STAKES -- $150K -- 1-18TH MILE 

2 -- SET PIECE

4 -- EMPTY TOMB

3 -- CRAFTY DADDY

6 -- FINNICK THE FIERCE

(CONSIDER #9 VISITANT IF SCRATCHES OCCUR) 

RACE 10 -- BOURBONETTE OAKS -- $150K -- ONE MILE

7 -- OLIVIAOFTHEDESERT

2 -- ADVENTURING

6 -- CALIFORNIA LILY 

2 -- ROLLUPMOMONEY

(CONSIDER 7 -- INTO VANISHING IF SCRATCHES OCCUR) 

Race 11 -- Jeff Ruby -- $250K 

7 -- TAARANTINO

10 -- GRETZKY THE GREAT

3 -- KING OVATION 

9 -- HARD RYE GUY 

THE PLAY

At Gulfstream, I'll go with my top four picks in Races 11 and 12, I am going to include #4 Morning Molly in Race 13 and finish with my top four Picks in the Florida Derby plus #5 Known Agenda. I am hearing some chatter about #5 Known Agenda in the Florida Derby...buyer beware here, not convinced he's on par with the others, but a win might convince me, so I'll toss him in and see, he did get the mile and an eighth impressively last time out and,  it's Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr. 

1,3,6,8/1,2,3,6,/1,4,5,7,9/2,3,5,7,10  

Cost:  $200  

At Turfway, I'll go with my top four picks in all four Races (8-11). That's leaving out #7 Into Vanishing in Race 10, but I gotta make my stand on Oliviaofthedesert coming home at a nice price. 

1,4,7,8/2,3,4,6/2,3,6,8/2,7,9,10 

Cost:  $128

Good lick today!!

paulie

FairGrounds Results -- 3/20/21

 Another one of those "shoulda, coulda, wouda" days at the oval -- winning most of but not all of the Late Pick 4 (Races 11-14) sequence. 

I gave you 16 horses to consider in the four race and had three winners, three seconds and two thirds. That is right on a 50% "in the money" percentage and I filled 66% of the "payable" slots. 

The killer was Race 11. OWENDALE showed no closing kick and allowed CHESS CHIEF (5-1)  to ramble up on the outside and pass a bunch of them to win. Guess who didn't have CHESS CHIEF in his picks?  That's how it goes. I ran second and third with my picks OWENDALE and ENFORCEABLE. 

Race 12 was all COLONEL LIAM and he was my top pick. LOGICAL MYTH chased him home and I had him too. CAPTIVATING MOON, who I had high hopes for, must got lost...

Race 13 TRAVEL COLUMN was the best by a bunch and I had her. CLAIRERE managed second and I had her too 

Race 14 was my tout HOT ROD CHARLIE and he got it dome in front running fashion. MIDNIGHT BOURBON, who I like also, followed "CHARLIE" around the track in second and finished second. MANDALOUN became a ghost in the stretch and disappeared.

So, do I move Hot Rod Charlie to the top of my Derby Picks?  Not quite ready to do that yet, but, as I said, they brought him to the Fairgrounds for a reason and he delivered. 

A very cheap Pick 4 payout at $99 dollars.  That's what you get with 5-1, 3-5, 2-1 and 5-2 winners. . 

We'll give it a try next week.

paulie

paulie

FairGrounds Picks -- 3/20/21

 What a card at the Fairgrounds in New Orleans today!  They end the card with seven stakes races from Race 8 to Race 14. The big one, of course is the Louisiana Derby, a key Road to the Roses prep and Mandaloun goes for his fourth win in five starts. Interesting that Hot Rod Charlie ships in from Santa Anita for this one and bring Joel Rosario with him. He's a closer, consider...

Also, a bit of intrigue to see which affair Captivating Moon goes in, the 11th or 12th. He's entered in both, and that could change up the picks a bit, depending on where they place him. Keep an eye on the "scratches and changes" and I'll try to jump back in and update. 

I've studied the final four on the card (Races 11-14) and that late Pick 4, but, I'll also offer a few in the stakes races in Races 8-10)...as always, play 'em anyway you like and good luck today

RACE 11 -- NEW ORLEANS CLASSIC STAKES -- GII -- $400K -- 1-1/8TH MILE  

1 -- ROADSTER

2 -- OWENDALE

8 -- SONNEMAN

5 -- ENFORCEABLE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 3 -- OLLIEMYGUY, 4--- CAPTIVATING MOON  (scratched) 

RACE 12 -- MUNIZ MERORIAL CLASSIC STAKES -- GII -- $300K -- 1-1/16TH (TURF)

5 -- COLONEL LIAM

6 -- LOGICAL MYTH

8 -- SPOOKY CHANNEL

3 -- CAPTIVATING MOON 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 11-- OLYMPIC RUNNER, 1-- FACTOR THIS

RACE 13 -- FAIRGROUNDS OAKS -- GII -- $400K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

6 -- CLAIRERE

5 -- OBLIGITORY

1 -- ZAAJEL

8 -- TRAVEL COLUMN

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 4-- LIL TOOTSIE, 3 -- SOUPER SENSATIONAL

RACE 14 -- LOUISIANA DERBY -- GII -- $1 MILLION -- 1-3/16TH MILES

6 -- MANDALOUN

7 -- MIDNIGHT BOURBON

4 -- PROXY

5 -- HOT ROD CHARLIE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 3--RUN CLASSIC, 2-- RIGHTANDJUST

The Play

I mentioned the late Pick 4, and that's what I'll go after. In Race 11, I'll use my top four picks and iif Captivating Moon decides to try the dirt, I'll use him in this one also. In Race 12, I'll go with the top four picks as well, but if Captivating Moon backs out, I'll insert Olympic Runner. In the FairGrounds Oaks, I love my top four picks and will play them. In the Louisiana Derby, Mandaloun is defiantly the one to beat, but I'll use my top four picks here, we've seen upsets before and Hot Rod Charlie intrigues me, coming in from the West Coast and, remember, he nearly won the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Keeneland last fall. Joel Rosario makes the trip, too.   

1,2,5,8,(4)? / 3,5,6,8(11)? / 1,5,6,8 / 4,5,6,7

Cost $128

OTHER SUGGESTIONS

Race 8 -- (2) No Parole tries the grass for the first time and should adapt quite well. If he doesn't (6) Monte Man is perfectly capable of going wire-to-wire, and (13) A Song For Arch could surprise at a price. 

Race 9 -- This one looks lke a two horse race in (1) Highland Creek and (2) Whotookthemoney...but I'll toss in (3) Wise Verdict, who can close well. 

Race 10 -- I'll suggest the the top three finishers in the stakes race here back in Feburary -- (3) Dalika, (6) Temple City Terror and (8) Pass The Plate. If you need a fourth, (11) Dreamalildreamofu works for me...

Good luck today! 

paulie

Oaklawn Results -- 3/13/21

 The Oaklawn Picks yesterday were not bad, except for the shocker in Race 9 -- The Temperance Hill Stakes. Not too many (myself included) came up with 47-1 longshot CARLOS L in their selections, unless you maybe hit the "ALL" button for that race. But, win he did and destroyed the Pick4 suggestion here in the opening leg. Wire-to-wire for this improbable runner in the difficult 1-1/2 mile affair. 

On the day, let's take a look, I gave you 23 horses to consider, when you look at the Late Pick 4 and Races 5 and 7 .Out of those, I had five winners, four seconds and three thirds. A 53% "in the money" number. In the 18 "payable" spots available, I filled 12 of them for 66%. The numbers aren't that bad, and I had a coiple off Pick 3's in my pocks -- but the elusive prrizr, the Pick 4 got away from me. 

RACE 5 --FLAGSTAFF SHEDARESTHEDEVIL got the win here. I had her, plus LETRUSKA in second. I did also like Endvoulate, but that one is still running, I guess...

RACE 7 -- I was huge on TAX,  but that one got scratched. I did have SILVER STATE, who won, though, and NIGHT OPS, who managed third. 

RACE 9 -- This was where the bomb exploded, with 47-1 CARLOS L getting the win. The one I really loved, TENFOLD, showed nothing in the stretch and staggered home for third. Still, a head-scratcher. 

RACE 10 -- CZ ROCKET won a furious stretch duel over WHITMORE, and these two were my top two picks.  FLAGSTAFF got up for third, and I had him selected also. 

RACE 11 -- CONCERT TOUR looked quite impressive in the REBEL STAKES win and I had him. It'll be interesting how he does against other Derby hopefuls, CADDO RIVER, KEEPMEINMIND and GOT HER NUMBER failed to hit the board and you have to wonder if they'll still stay on the Derby trail. Bob Baffert has a serious runner in CONCERT TOUR. Along with LIFE IS GOOD, Baffert has two serious Derby contenders. 

RACE 12 -- TRUCULENT prevailed in the final race at Oaklawn and he was one of my picks, GENERAL TREV DREW IN FROM THE "ALSO ELIGIBLE" LIST, and he got up for second. SOLOMONIE completed my win, place and show sweep of the final race. 

It just goes to show that, sometimes, the unexpected, unexplained and unpredictable can happen in horse racing, and that's why it's called "gambling" The Late Pick 4 was worth $1534.00 for a .50 cent wager, and I still can't see having it, unless I had pushed the "all" button in Race 9.  A journeyman jockey, horse that had done little in his five-year-old career and going further than he'd ever been...

Sometimes, you just gotta shake your head, shrug your shoulders and move on. We'll give it a go next week. I probably spent more time handicapping the ninth race than any on the card yesterday at Oaklawn. I came up with five runners I thought were legit. I managed a third place. 

And so it goes...

paulie

Oaklawn Picks -- 3/13/21

Let's leave Florida today and head to Hot Springs, Arkansas for a nice card at Oaklawn that features five stakes races and another Road to The Derby affair in the Rebel Stakes. I'll see if I can hit the late Pick 4 here (Races 9-12) which includes three of the stakes races and a challenging allowance race to close the Saturday card. 

Everything is "on the dirt" today in the races I'm looking at and the Hot Springs track looks to be fast, based on the latest weather report I saw. I'll offer suggestions as well on the other two stakes races, not sure if I'll play them on not, but I do have a trio of horses in each that I like. HERE WE GO! 

RACE 9 -- TEMPERANCE HILL STAKES -- $150K -- 1-1/2 MILE

1 -- TENFOLD

10 -- CAMPAIGN

6 -- TREASURE TROVE

4 -- PLAINSMAN

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 2 -- YOU'RE TO BLAME one to watch and I'll probably use him) 

RACE 10 -- HOT SPRINGS STAKES -- $200K -- SIX FURLONGS

6 -- WHITMORE

7 -- CZ ROCKET

2 -- FLAGSTAFF

4 -- ENGAGE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- MR. JAGERMEISTER) 

RACE 11 -- REBEL STAKES -- G II -- $1 MILLION -- 1-1.16TH MILES

1 -- CADDO RIVER

7 -- CONCERT TOUR

6 -- KEEP ME IN MIND

4 -- GET HER NUMBER

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 8 -- SUPER STOCK)

RACE 12 -- ALLOWANCE -- 45K -- ONE MILE

10 -- OFF THE MEDS

4 -- OPTIMAL KAT

5 -- TRUCULENT

7 -- SOLOMONIE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 13 - GENERAL TREV, 14 -- GALLANT PLUNGER ) 

THE PLAY

I'm going five deep in race nine, including my "also consider" -- it's quite the competitive affair. I'll follow that up with my top three picks in Race 10 -- 2,6.7 -- Let's use my top four in the Race 11 Rebel Stakes and end it with my top four in the Race 12 final -- but KEEP IN MIND -- if #13 and/or #14 draw in off the "AE list" -- both are horses I'll use. 

1,2,4,6,10/ 2.6,7/1,4,6,7/4.5.7.10 ???(13,14)  

Cost: $ 120.  (This could go up a bit if the two "AE's" #13 and #14 draw in for Race 12)

In the other two stakes races: 

RACE 5 -- This is a toss up between #1 ENDVOUTANTE, # 3 LETRUSKA and #5 SHEDARESTHEDEVIL. I really liked the way ENDVOUTANTE romped in Churchill's Falls City Handicap and Brian Hernandez returns to ride for Kenny McPeek. 

RACE 7 -- I do love #4 TAX here, but can see where #5 SILVER STATE or #7 NIGHT OPS could make it interesting.   (LATE NOTE: TAX scratched) 

THE PLAY

 I may try a Pick 3 for Races 5-7 that would start with 1,3,5 in Race 5, I'll hope for a price and hit the "all" button in the wide open, highly competitive Race 6 and close it out with 5.7 in Race 7  

1.3.5/ ALL/ 5,7

Cost:  $30

Good luck to you today and check back, I'll try to update the scratches if they occur. 

paulie

Tampa Bay Results 3/6/21

A good day for handicapping yesterday at Tampa Bay for me. I tried the late Pick 4 , which included the Florida Oaks and Tampa Bay Derby and hit it.  

The Pick 4 paid $909.55 on the .50 cent wager.  I spent $128 to hit it. I had sixteen of my picks go to post and out of them, I had four winners, three seconds and no thirds. That worked out to a 44% "in the money" percentage. I filled seven out of the 12 payable sports for a 58% success rate there.  One scratch on the day, in Race 12, where Silky Warrior didn't go, so I used my alternate Ballacolla. 

In Race 9, MICHELINE proved to be the best and went off at 9/2. That was my only runner that hit the board in that race, but it was a winner, so I was still alive in the Pick 4. 

In Race 10, DOMAIN EXPERTISE (5-1) out ran heavy favorite JOUSTER to take the Florida Oaks. Those two were the only two to finish in the money for me in my four horses for that race, but I had a winner and she beat the favorite. 

In Race 11, HELIUM enjoyed the switch from synthetic tapeta at Woodbine to dirt and took the Tampa Bay Derby at 15-1 odds. He beat HIDDEN STASH and I had both of those in my picks. 

(That Pick 3 for Races 8.10.11 -- in case you went that way -- paid $192.15 on the .50 cent wager) 

In Race 12, my top pick REINA DEL SOL got little respect from the bettors at 5-1 but won over favorite BELLACOLLA. BELLACOLLA was one I had in my "if scratches occur" lineup. Those two were my "in the money" selections. 

(The Late Pick 3 paid $168.85 on the .50 cent wager) 

ROAD TO THE DERBY

So, is HELIUM a bona-fide Derby contender now? The horse wasn't a Triple Crown nomination going into the race. He came in from Woodbine to run yesterday and it was his first attempt on dirt in three races. Mark Casse is a sneaky trainer and journeyman jockey Jose Ferrer took the horse from last to first in the backstretch, and then held off Hidden Stash in the stretch.  

Based on how some others have run in 2021 and how Life Is Good ran yesterday I can't consider Helium much of a Derby threat. We'll see, though. Where will he go next? CANDY MAN ROCKET disappointed yesterday in the Tampa Bay Derby. Will Bill Mott pull Junior Alvarado out of the saddle and go elsewhere for the ride next time out? 

LIFE IS GOOD destroyed the competition, albeit a weak field, in the San Felipe prep yesterday at Santa Anita. Gate to wire, with Mike Smith riding for Bob Baffert...it was a right-length win and probably could have been larger.  I want to see how LIFE IS GOOD does against stiffer competition, like ESSENTIAL QUALITY, MANDALOUN and GREATEST HONOUR, but will Baffert ship him east to face these...and leave the west coast? 

Anyway, a nice addition to my profit margin for 2021 with yesterday's score and we'll give 'em another go next Saturday. 

paulie 

Tampa Bay Picks -- 3/6/21

 A nice four race sequence to close out the card at Tampa Bay today. WE get three stakes races, including the Road To The Derby's TAMPA BAY DERBY, and that's where I'm going today. 

RACE 9 -- HILLSBOROUGH STAKES -- GII -- $225K -- 1-1/8 MILE (TURF)

2 -- COUNTERPARTY RISK

4 -- LA SIGNARE

11 -- MICHELINE

1 -- MAGIC ATTITUDE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 8 - MISS TEHERAN) 

RACE 10 -- FLORIDA OAKS -- GIII -- $200K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF) 

2 -- JOUSTER

10 -- DOMAIN EXPERTISE

6 -- BE SNEAKY 

3 -- MIA MARTINA

(IF SCRATCHCES OCCUR -- 11 -- OYSTER BOX) 

RACE 11 -- TAMPA BAY DERBY -- GII -- $400K -- 1-1/8TH MILE

3 -- CANDY MAN ROCKET

8 -- HIDDEN STASH

11 -- PROMISE KEEPER

10 -- HELIUM 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 9 -- UNBRIDLED HONOR) 

RACE 12 -- MAIDEN -- $31K -- 1 MILE (TURF) 

6 -- REINA DEL SOL

7 -- LISHEEN

11 -- SILKY WARRIOR

4 -- TRANQUILLIANA

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 8 -- BALLACOLLA) 

THE PLAY

I'm going to keep it simple today and just play the Pick 4 with my top four picks in each leg. 

It's a $128 bet on the .50 cent Pick 4 variety and I like the coverage. If I were to go a bit "deeper" I might include Ballacolla in the final race. That bumps it up to $160, still manageable and gives me that added security in a race where you have at least five first time starters.. Antonio Gallardo gets on board this first time starter for Chad Brown...might be an angle? 

1,2,4,11/2.3.6.10/3.8,10,11/4.6.7.11 (8?) 

Good luck today !

paulie