Tampa Bay Picks -- 2/6/21

 We'll stay in Florida today for Paulie's Picks but move over to the west coast and go to Tampa Bay Downs for a challenging card that has four stakes races and a Derby Prep in the Sam F .Davis Stakes. Oh, yeah, the Super Bowl is down in Tampa tomorrow, too -- not that the event has any bearing on the racing card, but John Velazquez, Julien Leparoux, Junior Alvarado and Robbie Albarado  are in town to ride, so...the race card bears watching.

Daniel Centeno, Samy Camacho and Antonio Gallardo are the leading regular jocks at the track.  We'll look at the final five races -- four stakes and a wide open claimer to close the card.

RACE 8 -- TAMPA BAY STAKES -- GIII -- $175 K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF) 

2 -- ADMISSIONS OFFICE

4 -- TALK OR LISTEN

8 -- EONS

12 -- GREYES CREEK 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER --  10- FANCY LIQUOR)

RACE 9 -- SUNCOAST STAKES -- 150K -- 1 MILE, 40 YARDS

7 -- GULF COAST   (Scratched) 

2 -- FEELING MISCHIEF

6 -- SCENIC OVERLOOK

5 -- HONORIFIQUE  (Scratched) 

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 10- SPECIAL PRINCESS and 4 - CURLIN CATCH) ) 

RACE 10 -- ENDEAVOUR STAKES -- GIII -- $175K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF) 

5 -- CONTERPARTY RISK

6 -- NEW YORK GIRL 

8 -- IRONY OF REALITY

2 -- LOGIC N REASON  (SCRATCHED) 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER --  7 -- KELSEY'S CROSS) 

RACE 11 -- SAM F DAVIS STAKES -- GIII -- 250K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

3 -- KNOWN AGENDA

1 -- HIDDEN STASH

5 -- SMILEY SOBOTKA

9 -- CANDY MAN ROCKET

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 7 -- BOCA BOY

RACE 12 -- CLAIMING 8K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

10 -- FIRST DEGREE

8 -- AIN'T WASTING TIME

3 -- INDY RIDE

7 -- FREE FLAYME

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 2 -- BUDGET BUSTER,)

THE PLAY: 

I'll look to maybe try a few Pick 3's in the sequence. The Pick 5 starts in Race 8 and the Pick 4 starts in Race 9 -- these could be pretty substantial wagers and I guess it all comes down to how much you want to spend today? -- I'm probably going to "layer" three Pick 3's and see how they do: 

If I do it, I'll keep it simple:  I'll play all five picks each race, and go a sequence of Races 8.9.10 / Races 9,10,11 and then Races 10,11,12. It's a total outlay of $187.50. 

Of course, play 'em anyway you like.  A Pick 5 thought I had was:  2,4,8,12/ 2,5.6.7/5,6,8/1,3,5/3,7,8,10...it's a pretty hefty $288 outlay, but...the reward could be very profitable. Consider the risk vs. reward angle and factor in your balance (of course) and what you want to spend. 

Another way to go is the five horse, .50 cent trifecta box in each race. That'll run you $30 a race and is a total outlay of $150. You could cover the cost by hitting just one or two of these today, and maybe get a nice profit -- it just depends on how your fellow bettors play them 

Also, be advised that they do expect a little rain down there today around 3 p.m. That's right around the start of Race 7, so Race 8 (turf) and Race 10 (turf) could always be switched to the main track and the fast dirt track conditions could change.  

Good luck today! 

paulie