I chased the late Pick 4 at Gulfstream Saturday and caught it. It was an interesting day of racing in South Florida and the payout was a bit lower than I wanted (isn't that always the case?) but we'll go back to Paulie's Theory #2 which states that I pick winners here but I can't pick what they'll pay.
On the day I outlined 20 horses over the four races that I thought might be contenders. Out of those, I had four winners, three seconds and three thirds. That's a 50% Troubleing Moon "in the money percentage. I also "filled" 10 of the 12 payable spots, for a 83.4% success rate.
IN RACE 9, the odds-on favorite Zaajel lived up to the hype and the faith of the bettor, having no problem winning at 3/5 odds. I also got another one my picks in for second (Lady Traveler) but the exacta paid a paltry $8.70 on the $1 exacta bet.
IN RACE 10, it was White Frost making a big stretch run to zip by Con Lima and Domain Expertise to get the win at 9/2. I has all three my picks, the exacta returning $16.50 and the trifecta good for $59.25.
IN RACE 11, my top pick Greatest Honor easily handled the field at 5/2 odds and my second pick Prime Factor managed to stay up for third. That gave me the Pick 3, but it returned a disappointing $22.15 on the .50 wager. Greatest Honor probably has to be considered one of the favorites for the upcoming Florida Derby with that performance in the Holy Bull.
IN RACE 12, we had the most exciting race of the four race sequence. Blameless nosed-out Troubling Moon at the wire to get the win. I had both and also had the third place finisher Fig Jelly. The exacta returned $60.30, the trifecta $204.05, the Pick 3 $81.00 and the Pick 4 $184.10. It was a good way to end the day of wagering and handicapping.
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The play I suggested yesterday, both Pick 3's and the Pick 4 were worth $287.25. and cost $225 to get there, so the profit of $64 was better than taking a bath on the day but a little less than I expected.
We'll give it a go next week.
paulie xxxxx
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