Gulfstream Picks 2-13-21

 I had originally planned to go with Oaklawn's picks today, but winter conditions caused a cancellation in the card. The only Kentucky racing would have been - Turfway -- but (you guessed i)t -- cancellation up there also because of winter weather. 

So, let's go to our old standby -- Gulfstream-.  The final four on the Cards have three turf races at a mile and the Grade III Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes, so, the racing isn't all that back for Valentimne's Day weekend. 

RACE 9 -- CLAIMING  - 16K -- 1 MILE (TURF) 

2 -- HOPONTHEBUSGUS

8 -- SCATNAP

1 -- YES FACTOR

5 -- GENERIC MARK

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 9-- YAKO) 

RACE 10 -- OPT. CLAIMING -- 75 K -- 1 MILE  (TURF) 

5 -- STRUCTOR

7 -- EVER DANGEROUS

9 -- ARGENTELLO

1 -- PENALTY

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 8 -- CLEAR VISION) 

RACE 11 -- GULFSTREAM PARK SPRINT STAKES -- GIII -- 100K -- SIX FURLONGS

5 -- MISCHEVIOUS ALEX

6 -- WIND OF CHANGE

7 -- FROSTED GRACE

1 -- EDGEMONT ROAD

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 2 -- SHIVAREE) 

RACE 12 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- 50K -- 1 MILE (TURF) 

3 -- FLORIFORM

12 -- BRACKEN

7 -- EL SOCIO

10 -- PERFORMING ARTS 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 6 -- RASENQUIST) 

THE PLAY: 

I'll just go with a Pick 4 today in these four races. I've struggled getting a Pick 4  that pays much in the last couple of weeks, and the card at Gulfstream today looks a bit chalky in Race 10 and Race 11, but. let's see how it turns out I'll play the top four picks in each race, hope for a price or two along the way and keep an eye out for scratches. The weather forecast is 82 today down there and scattered thunderstorms, so if any of the races are moved from turf to dirt, I'll lose a bit of confidence in thse picks and maybe scramble to find some dirt runners. 

1,2,5,8

1.5.7.9.

1.5.6.7.

3,7,10,12

Good Luck !!

paulie

Tampa Bay Results 2-6-21

An interesting day of racing at Tampa Bay yesterday, with the running of the Sam F Davis Stakes and three other stakes races and a claiming event to close the card. I did pretty well with the Picks, winning four out of the five races -- it was a day where longshots didn't make much noise, though. 

After scratches, I had a total of 20 horses that I outlined break from the gate. Four winners, three seconds and two thirds. A 45% "in the money" number. I filled nine of the 15 "payout" spots for a 60% success rate there. 

Race 8 got me, where I ran second, third, fourth and fifth with my picks. #3 Get Smokin' did not make the lead, which I didn't expect he would, bit came from off the pace to win. 4-1 on this one, I couldn't include him, so any dreams of a Pick 5 died there. I loved Admissions Officer, he ended up third. 

Race 9 brought #4 Curlin's Catch tto the wire first in a race where two horses I really liked got scratched.. The crowd reacted by making him the favorite at 9/5 and I had him.

Race 10 belonged to top pick Counterparty Risk, she battled it out with my second pick New York Girl in the stretch and was best.  She went off at 4/5. That Pic k 3 paid a paltry $27.50

Race 11, the Sam F Davis, was won by Candy Man Rocket, in fine stretch running style. Maybe one to watch for future Derby prep races, he was a 3-1 pick of my. I was a bit disappointed in Known Agenda, who finished third. 

Race 12 had a disqualification of Ain't Wasting Time in stretch for bumping with the eventual winner Indy Ride. I had both in my picks, and the Pick 3 and Pick4 got a little, but not much, boost when the 4-1 was placed first over the 6/5. That Pick 3 brought $55.30 and the Pick 4, which I gave you, was a winner (4-5-9-3) but less than I excepted at $ 145.75 on the .50 cent wager. 

Of note, Junior Alvarado won two of the final five races...John Velazquez, Antonio Gallarado and Ronnie Allen Jr one each. 

Because I had five horses "scratch" on me, I decided I afford a late Pick 4 for the day (Races 9-12) and spent $128 on it, so a small profit of about $17 there. I pretty much gave that back to the other bettors, though, with a "foolhardy" .50 cent Pick 5 where I went with my top two picks, in each race, spent $16 on the bet, and went a dismal 3-5, I was "dead" in that venture after the first race. . 

So, a pleasurable afternoon of watching horsees and didn't get killed in the wagering. We'll give it a go next week. 

paulie

Tampa Bay Picks -- 2/6/21

 We'll stay in Florida today for Paulie's Picks but move over to the west coast and go to Tampa Bay Downs for a challenging card that has four stakes races and a Derby Prep in the Sam F .Davis Stakes. Oh, yeah, the Super Bowl is down in Tampa tomorrow, too -- not that the event has any bearing on the racing card, but John Velazquez, Julien Leparoux, Junior Alvarado and Robbie Albarado  are in town to ride, so...the race card bears watching.

Daniel Centeno, Samy Camacho and Antonio Gallardo are the leading regular jocks at the track.  We'll look at the final five races -- four stakes and a wide open claimer to close the card.

RACE 8 -- TAMPA BAY STAKES -- GIII -- $175 K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF) 

2 -- ADMISSIONS OFFICE

4 -- TALK OR LISTEN

8 -- EONS

12 -- GREYES CREEK 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER --  10- FANCY LIQUOR)

RACE 9 -- SUNCOAST STAKES -- 150K -- 1 MILE, 40 YARDS

7 -- GULF COAST   (Scratched) 

2 -- FEELING MISCHIEF

6 -- SCENIC OVERLOOK

5 -- HONORIFIQUE  (Scratched) 

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 10- SPECIAL PRINCESS and 4 - CURLIN CATCH) ) 

RACE 10 -- ENDEAVOUR STAKES -- GIII -- $175K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF) 

5 -- CONTERPARTY RISK

6 -- NEW YORK GIRL 

8 -- IRONY OF REALITY

2 -- LOGIC N REASON  (SCRATCHED) 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER --  7 -- KELSEY'S CROSS) 

RACE 11 -- SAM F DAVIS STAKES -- GIII -- 250K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

3 -- KNOWN AGENDA

1 -- HIDDEN STASH

5 -- SMILEY SOBOTKA

9 -- CANDY MAN ROCKET

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 7 -- BOCA BOY

RACE 12 -- CLAIMING 8K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

10 -- FIRST DEGREE

8 -- AIN'T WASTING TIME

3 -- INDY RIDE

7 -- FREE FLAYME

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 2 -- BUDGET BUSTER,)

THE PLAY: 

I'll look to maybe try a few Pick 3's in the sequence. The Pick 5 starts in Race 8 and the Pick 4 starts in Race 9 -- these could be pretty substantial wagers and I guess it all comes down to how much you want to spend today? -- I'm probably going to "layer" three Pick 3's and see how they do: 

If I do it, I'll keep it simple:  I'll play all five picks each race, and go a sequence of Races 8.9.10 / Races 9,10,11 and then Races 10,11,12. It's a total outlay of $187.50. 

Of course, play 'em anyway you like.  A Pick 5 thought I had was:  2,4,8,12/ 2,5.6.7/5,6,8/1,3,5/3,7,8,10...it's a pretty hefty $288 outlay, but...the reward could be very profitable. Consider the risk vs. reward angle and factor in your balance (of course) and what you want to spend. 

Another way to go is the five horse, .50 cent trifecta box in each race. That'll run you $30 a race and is a total outlay of $150. You could cover the cost by hitting just one or two of these today, and maybe get a nice profit -- it just depends on how your fellow bettors play them 

Also, be advised that they do expect a little rain down there today around 3 p.m. That's right around the start of Race 7, so Race 8 (turf) and Race 10 (turf) could always be switched to the main track and the fast dirt track conditions could change.  

Good luck today! 

paulie

Gulfstream Results 1-30-21

 I chased the late Pick 4 at Gulfstream Saturday and caught it. It was an interesting day of racing in South Florida and the payout was a bit lower than I wanted (isn't  that always the case?) but we'll go back to Paulie's Theory #2 which states that I pick winners here but I can't pick what they'll pay. 

On the day I outlined 20 horses over the four races that I thought might be contenders. Out of those, I had four winners, three seconds and three thirds. That's a 50% Troubleing Moon "in the money percentage. I also "filled" 10 of the 12 payable spots, for a 83.4% success rate. 

IN RACE 9, the odds-on favorite Zaajel lived up to the hype and the faith of the bettor, having no problem winning at 3/5 odds. I also got another one my picks in for second (Lady Traveler) but the exacta paid a paltry $8.70 on the $1 exacta bet. 

IN RACE 10, it was White Frost making a big stretch run to zip by Con Lima and Domain Expertise to get the win at 9/2. I has all three my picks, the exacta returning $16.50 and the trifecta good for $59.25.

IN RACE 11, my top pick Greatest Honor easily handled the field at 5/2 odds and my second pick Prime Factor managed to stay up for third. That gave me the Pick 3, but it returned a disappointing $22.15 on the .50 wager. Greatest Honor probably has to be considered one of the favorites for the upcoming Florida Derby with that performance in the Holy Bull. 

IN RACE 12, we had the most exciting race of the four race sequence. Blameless nosed-out Troubling Moon at the wire to get the win. I had both and also had the third place finisher Fig Jelly. The exacta returned $60.30, the trifecta $204.05, the Pick 3 $81.00 and the Pick 4 $184.10. It was a good way to end the day of wagering and handicapping. 

                                                           ***********************

The play I suggested yesterday, both Pick 3's and the Pick 4 were worth $287.25. and cost $225 to get there, so the profit of $64 was better than taking a bath on the day but a little less than I expected. 

We'll give it a go next week. 

paulie                                                                                                                                                            xxxxx

Gulfstream Picks -- 1/30/21

 A nice day of racing at Gulfstream today that features the three-year-olds in the late stakes races. Two fillies stakes, the Road to the Kentucky Derby Holy Bull Stakes and a wide open claiming affair make up the final four on the late four, final card today. Two turf and two on the dirt. 

In the Holy Bull, let's not forget Tiz the Law won the race last year and Audible did a couple of years back -- so the race can be a "one to watch" when assessing Kentucky Derby hopefuls. Here we go!  

RACE 9 -- FORWARD GAL STAKES -- GIII -- 100K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

7 -- ZAAJEL

2 -- THREE TIPSY  CHICKS

3 -- COMPETITIVE SPEED

6 -- LADY TRAVELER

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 8 -- JER'S JOY)

RACE 10 -- SWEETEST CHANT STAKES -- GIII -- 100K -- 1 MILE (TURF) 

6 -- DOMAIN EXPERTISE

4 -- CON LIMA

2 -- HONEY PANTS

8 -- DIRECTOR'S CUT

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- WHITE FOREST)

RACE 11 -- HOLY BULL -- GIII -- 200K -- 1-1/16TH MILE 

7 -- GREATEST HONOR

6 -- PRIME FACTOR

8 -- SITTING ON GO 

2 -- WILLIE BOI 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 1 -- JIRAFALES) 

RACE 12 -- CLAIMING -- 35K -- ONE MILE (TURF) 

5 -- TUSK

6 -- TROUBLING MOOM

10 -- FIG JELLY

11 -- BLAMELESS 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 4 -- FINANCIAL SYSTEM) 

THE PLAYS: 

I'm going to try a couple of Pick 3's today and a late Pick Four. 

In the Pick Threes: 

I'll start it out with all four picks in Race 9, followed by all four picks, plus my "scratch" pick in Race 10 and narrow it down to my top three in Race 11 -- Gretest Honor, Prime Factor and Sitting On Go. 

2,3,6,7/2,4 5,6.8/ 6,7,8

Cost for the .50 Pick 3:  $30 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'll try another Pick 3 starting in Race 10, with the five horses from my first Pick 3, go with the same three from Race 11 and go deep in Race 12 with my top four, plus adding in  4- Financial System and 8 - Harbor Master. 

2,4,5,6,8/ 6.7.8./4.5.6.8,10,11

Cost for this Pick3 :  $45

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'll also offer this Pick 4: 

2,3,6,7/2,4,5,6.8/ 6.7.8/ 4,5,6,10,11

Cost for the .50 cent Pick 4:  $150

That's puts me just a little over $200 for the day ($225) and gives me some nice options. I can afford to do it, since I'm still riding on my 2020 profits. Play 'em however you like,,,  Good luck today! 

paulie

Pegasus World Cup Results -- 1/23/21

 An "OK" day for handicapping yesterday at Gulfstream in the Pegasus World Cup Day Late Pick 4 picks 

I gave you a total of 16 picks in the final four races, had three winners and three seconds. Although we did not take down the Pick 4 -- Race Nine ruined our chances there when the longest shot on the board took the Inside Info States -- I did have the Late Pick 3 and two exactas.  The overall "in the money numbers" were lower than I like -- 37.5%, but six "payables out of 12 possible spots gave me a 50% number. 

Race 9 was the spoiler...my top pick Thistimemytime couldn't hold off stretch runner and 16-1 longshot Pacific Gate in the final furlong and came in second. 

Race 10 was a winner, Tide Of The Sea got a great eide from Tyler Gaffalione to get the win and rewarded me with a $10 payout at 4-1 odds. 

Race 11 had my top two picks, Largent and Colonel Liam crossing the wire first and second in the Pegasus World Cup Turf event. The "Colonel" went off at 5-2, and paid $7 to win, the 5-6 exactas was good for $28.20.

Race 12 was a fun one to watch Knicks Go destroy the field in the stretch as the favorite. I gave you Jesus' Team as a pick also and this one ran second to give me a 4-5 exacta worth $43. The Pick3 also hit for me and returned $51,50. 

I did not show a profit for the four-race sequence, though.  The killer was the loss of the Pick 4, which put me $96 in the hole. I came came with a late Pick three which cost $32 and paid $51.50. I also played exactas in Races 11 and 12 won just $4.20 on the winner in Race 11 and won $27 on the exacta  in Race 12. 

I really liked Colonel Liam and Knicks Go in the final two races, along with Largent and Code Of Honor, so I invested $25 win wager on each. That $100 outlay brought back $145, so a profit there. 

A total wagering outlay of  $276 on the day, a return of $223. That's the way it goes some days. As I said so many times here, we can pick winners, but we can't pick what we get paid.  A $53 "bath" on the day -- dipping a bit into the profits I made in 2020. 

A follower did hit the Pick 4 for $613 on the .50 cent wager and did it by going "all" in Race 9 and then using three horses each in the final three races. That cost $108, so a nice profit return there. Sometimes, that's the key in races you can't come up with a clear two or three horses to use.

 Just hit the "all" button. 

It can be costly if you lose further in the sequence, but, at least you've guaranteed you'll still be alive, especially if it's in the first race of the sequence. 

I'll strive to do better next week. I'm not a huge fan of Gulfstream, but will give a shout out to jockey Tyler Gaffalione down there. He had four wins and two thirds on the card. Anytime you can go for a "four-bagger" against the cream of New York Racing jockeys and more...that's quite the feat. 

--paulie-- 

PEGASUS WORLS CUP PICKS -- JAN 23rd

 Hey! It's time to get back into the Saturday Paulie Picks and I get started with the big day of stakes racing at Gulfstream today on Pegasus World Cup Day! 

Let's try to start 2021 off with a bang, I'm going after the Late Pick 4. Some really good racing today at Gulfstream, I've handicapped the runners, checked out the angles and made my picks,  so let's go !! 

RACE 9 -- INSIDE INFO STAKES -- GII -- SEVEN FURLONGS -- $200K 

4 -- THISTIMEMYTIME

2 -- CINNABUNNY

7 -- SALLY'S CROWN

3 -- BRONX BEAUTY

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  1 -- DREAM MARIE) 

RACE 10 -- WL MCKNIGHT STAKES -- GIII -- 1-1/2 MILE (TURF) -- $150K

8 -- SIR ANTHONY

5 -- SADLER'S JOY

7 -- TIDE OF THE SEA

11 -- CHANNEL CAT

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR: 1--DOSWELL) 

RACE 11 -- PEGASUS WORLD CUP TURF -- GI -- 1-3/16TH MILE (TURF) -- $1 MILLION

5 -- LARGENT

5 -- COLONEL LIAM

12 -- SOCIAL PARANOIA

11 -- SAY THE WORD

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR: 2-- BREAKING THE RULES) 

RACE 12 -- PEGASUS WORLD CUP -- GI -- 1-1/8TH MILE -- $3 MILLION 

4 -- KNICKS GO

10 -- CODE OF HONOR

7 -- TAX

5 -- JESUS' TEAM

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR: 8-- HARPER'S FIRST RIDE) 

**********   I'll try to get back in here and adjust the picks if needed if scratches occur, so be sure to check back as race time for Race 9 approaches -- around 3:40 p.m. EST **********

THE PLAY: 

I'll take all four picks in Race 9 and do the same in Race 10. One could try and shorten up in Race 11 with just Largent and Colonel Liam, but I'm going to respect the "outside" runners and add Socail Paranoia and Say The Word. In the final, Race 12, I see it as a three horse race: I'll play Knicks Go, Code of Honor and Tax.

PICK 4 --  COST $96

2,3,4,7 / 5,7,8,11 / 5,6,11,12 / 4,7,10

I'm cruising into this one with the ample profit I built in 2020, so let's hope the luck continues and we start 2021 off with a score! 

paulie