CHURCHILL DOWNS RESULTS -- 9/25/21

 So, it wasn't the best day for handicapping for me at Churchill Saturday. I gave out 16 horses that I thought might do well in the final four races, and had two winners, two seconds and a third. That 31% "in the money" number isn't very good at all. Filling five of the 12 "payable spots equates out to 42%, and that much lower than I usually hit. (Mama said there would be days like this). 

Race 8 -- CARRIBEAN CAPER (2/5) took a lot of money and Colby Hernandez got the job done for Al Stall. I also had SOMEONE SAID SO for second. My top pick Patty H was a disappointment. 

Race 9 -- KING FURY lived up to the 1/2 post time odds and secured a win for Brian Hernandez. Jr and Kenny McPeek in the Bourbon Trail. I also had DR.JACK for second. 

Race 10 -- In the Harrods Creek Stakes, I drew a goose egg. Everett's Song (13-1) was the longshot winner, with Pablo Morales along for the ride. 

Race 11. -- This was the "woulda, coulda,shouda" race. I debated long and hard about including Howling Time (5-1) in my top four picks but didn't. He took the final with Joe Talamo riding for Dale Romans.  My top pick, BACK TO NORMAL managed third. 

The Pick 4  (2-4-10-6) got you $139.80 on a .50 wager.  

We'll dust ourselves off, get up after the knockout pinch and get back on our feet for next week. 

paulie  

CHURCHILL DOWNS PICKS -- 9/25/21

 A nice card today at the twin spires on Central Avenue, and we'll look at the final four races at Churchill -- three stakes races and a high level maiden special weight. 

RACE8 -- DOGWOOD STAKES -- GIII-- $275K --  SEVEN FURLONGS

6 -- PATTY H

2 -- CARRIBEAN CAPER

3 -- LIL TOOTSIE (scratched) 

5 -- SHE'S A MYSTERY

7 -- SOMEONE SAID SO

RACE 9 -- BOURBON TRAIL STAKES -- $275K -- 1-3/16TH MILE

4 -- KING FURY

7 -- SERMONONTHEMOUNT

3 -- DR JACK

2 -- KING'S OVATION

RACE 10 -- HARRODS CREEK STAKES -- $275K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

1 -- DREAMER'S DISEASE

7 -- IRISH UNITY

5-- EMERALS FOREST

3 -- BOB'S EDGE

RACE 11 -- MAIDEN -- $120K -- SIX FURLONGS

4 --BACK TO NORMAL

9 -- CHASING TIME

7 -- BRAWNDO

2 -- LEDDY

(I'LL CHECK IN LATER WITH ANY SCRATCHES -- BE SURE TO CHECK BACK AS RACE 8 GETS CLOSE....AROUND 4:20 PM)

The play

Let's keep it simple today and return to one of my favorite Pick 4 wager tactics -- taking my top four picks. It's a $128 wager. 

2,5,6,7/2,3,4,7/1,3,5,7/2,4,7,9

GOOD LUCK! 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS RESULTS -- 9/18/21

 Downs After Dark at Churchill provided some great quality stakes racing, the UofL men and women's squads and a clean sweep of winners for Paulie and his picks. Let's take a look  I gave you 20 horses to consider over five races, out of those, I had five winners, two places and four shows for a 55% "in the money" percentage. I filled 11 of the 15 "payable" spots also -- for a 73% success rate

Race 3 -- SCONSIN (9/5) held off BELL'S THE ONE to win the Open Mind Stakes. I had those two, plus MUNDAYE CALL, who got third. Tyler Gaffalone had the winning ride and the trifecta paid $5.50. 

Race 7 -- JUST MIGHT took the LTS Stakes with Rafael Bejarano on board and went off at 3-1 odds. I had that one and BANGO who got third. $24.35 on the .50 trifecta. 

Race 8 -- HIDDEN CONNECTION (9/5) blew away the competition in the Pocahontas to win by a bus length. I had that one and GODDESS OF FIRE for third. It was jockey Reylu Gutierrez first win at Churchill.  A handsome trifecta paid $228 on the .50 wager. 

Race 9 -- MAJOR GENERAL (9/2) upset huge favorite Stellar Tap and the rest of the field in the Iroquois. I had him. Javier Castellano getting this one up just in time. Two longshots followed him home to make for an huge $1162,75 trifecta.

Race 10 -- SHEDARESTHEDEVIL was impressive in the Locust Grove at 8/5 odds for Florent Geroux. I had that one and CRYSTL BALL for second and ENVOUTANTE for third. The trifecta returned $4.60.

As I've said here many times before -- I can pick winners, I just can't pick what they pay. I did get an e-mail from a reader, who went after the Pick 5 with my top two picks in races 7-10 and then "bet them all" in Race 11. That cost him $80 on a .50 cent Pick 5 and he got back $749. Not a bad return at all. I opted to bet trifectas and actually lost money on my five bets, despite winning three of them. Sometimes it's not how much you bet but how you bet. 

It's good to see racing back at Churchill, even if it's all dirt. (They're reseeding the Turf Course). We'll give it a go next week.   

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS PICKS -- 9/18/21

 Racing returns to Churchill Downs for the September Meet and there are five stakes races on a Saturday night card -- Downs After Dark. 

RACE 3 -- OPEN MIND STAKES -- $300K -- SIX FURLONGS

2 -- SCONSIN

5 -- BELL'S THE ONE

1 -- MUNDAYE CALL 

3 -- AIN'T NO ELMERS

RACE 7 -- LOUISVILLE THOROUGHBRED SOCIETY STAKES -- $275k -- SIX FURLONGS

3 -- JUST MIGHT

5 -- BANGO 

6 -- MIGHTY MISCHIEF

1 -- DENNIS' MOMENT 

RACE 8 -- POCAHONTIS STAKES -- GII -- $200K -- 1-1/16TH MILES

10 -- LEMIEUX

9 -- HIDDEN CONNECTION

4 -- ONTHEONESANDTWOS

2 -- GODDESS OF FIRE

RACE 9 -- IROQUOIS STAKES -- GIII -- $300K -- 1-1/6TH MILES

6 -- STELLAR TAP

8 -- MAJOR GENERAL

9 -- GUNTOWN

11 -- BOURBON HEIST

RACE 10 -- LOCUST GROVE STAKES -- GIII -- $400K -- 1-1/16TH MILES

7 -- SHEDARESTHEDEVIL

6 -- OUR SUPER FREAK

1 -- CRYSTAL BALL 

5 -- ENVOUTANTE

THE PLAY:: 

It is opening week at Churchill, so I'm going to take a bit of a conservative approach on wagering until I can get a feel on how the track is playing. 

I'll probably do .50 trifectas on my top four picks in all five stakes races. There is a Pick 5 that starts in Race 7, but I'll pass -- no obvious "singles" that stand out to lessen that kind of wager. 

Good luck!

paulie

KENTUCKY DOWNS RESULTS -- 9/11/21

 It was a beautiful day forr racing at Kentucky Downs Saturday. That being said, my handicapping skills took a swift kick in the rump on the five stakes races I tried to predict. 

After scratches, I had 24 runners go forth. Out of those, a mere one winner, three places and one show. That 21% "in the money" didn't get me anything. Out of 15 "payable" sports, I filled five -- for 33%

. 

RACE 6 -- IN GOOD SPIRITS (14-1) got to the wire first in the spring. I did have CATCH A BID, who gathered place money. Letting a John Velasquez runner for Al Stall go off a 14-1 can burn you occasionally and it did here.

RACE 7 -- PRINCESS GRACE (1-1) broke dead last but started to rally halfway through the mile race and took the lead in the stretch. They couldn't catch her. A nice ride by Florent Geroux. DALIKA, another of my picks, was trying and finished second. 

RACE 8 -- GEAR JOCKEY (5-1) grabbed the lead at the top of the stretch in the mile race and steadily pulled away from the rest. Jose Lezcano on board. 

RACE 9 -- IMPERADOR (9-1) battled the unlucky ARKLOW down the stretch in the 1-1/2 mile Turf Cup. Joe Talamo with the prolonged stretch run 

RACE 10 -- THE LIR JET (8-1) took the Franklin-Simpson and used a nice stretch run with Tyler Gaffalione on to to do it. 

Europeans won the last two. I shoulda known better than to leave them out. They do love the turf. 

Somedays, you just get beat. 

paulie

KENTUCKY DOWNS ENTRIES -- 9/11/21

 

Let's go to the Kentucky/Tennessee border today for racing at Kentucky Downs. The all-turf track only runs a couple of weeks a year, but consistently brings in the best owners, trainers and jockeys. 

There are five stakes races there today -- two Grade II's and three Grade III's -- and full fields for all. Let's take a look. 

RACE 6 -- LADIES SPRINT -- GIII -- $600K -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) 

10 -- VENETIAN HARBOR

6 -- SUPERSTITION

4 -- YES IT'S GINGER

8 -- CATCH A BID

(If scratches occur: 8 -- JEANIE B ) 

RACE 7 -- LADIES TURF -- GIII -- $750K -- ONE MILE (TURF) 

2 -- PRINCESS GRACE

8 -- SUMMER IN SARATOGA

9 -- DALIKA

5 -- SHE'SONTHEWARPATH 

(If scratches occur: 3 -- ABSCOND) 

RACE 8 -- TURF SPRINT -- GIII -- $I MILLION -- 6 FURLONGS  (TURF) 

9 -- GOT STORMY

7 -- CASA CREED

5 -- BORN GREAT

2 -- FAST BOAT

(If scratches occur: 3 -- BOMBARD)

RACE 9 -- TURF CUP -- GII -- $1 MILLION -- 1-1/2 MILES (TURF)

3 -- CHANNEL CAT

5 --ARKLOW

9 -- GLYNN COUNTY

11 -- ZULU ALPHA (scratched)

(If scratches occur: 6 -- BLUEGRASS PARKWAY) (scratched)  4 -- TIDE OF THE SEA

RACE 10 -- FRANKLIN-SIMPSON STAKES -- GII -- $600K -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF)

6 -- NEXT

10 -- POINT ME BY 

11 -- BODENHEIMER

7 -- ANNEX

(If scratches occur: 3 -- COUNTY FINAL)

The Play: 

There is no Pick 5 that covers these five races (Races 6-10) and that's a shame...but there are Pick 3's available, so let's shift gears this week and try a few of those. Starting in Race 6, if we take my top four picks in Races 6,7 and 8, we can get a Pick 3 in for just $32. Doing the same in Races 7,8 and 9...and then again in Races 8,9,10 gets you out for less that $100. 

Although the weather looks warm and sunny and the turf should be firm, there's always the possibility of scratches, so keep your eye open for them. 

Best of luck! 

paulie

SARATOGA RESULTS -- 9/4/21

 A fine day of racing yesterday at the Spa and good results, as Saratoga looks to close out their summer meet. I handicapped Races 8-12 there and gave you 20 horses over these five races. I had one scratch, so 19 picks went to post for me. Out of those, I had five winners, five places and five shows. That's a very decent 74.5% "in the money" rate for my picks. When you consider there were 15 "payable" up for grabs in the five races and I grabbed 14 of them, that's a 93.3% success rate. 

RACE 8 -- PUBLIC SECTOR (6/5) took the Saranac Stakes convincingly and I had that one, plus second place finisher NEVER SURRENDER and show grabber LIKE THE KING. Irad Ortiz got the job done for Chad Brown. $23 on the $1 trifecta. 

RACE 9 -- CARA'S DREAMER (7/2) employed a huge stretch move to blow by the field and get this allowance win. JUSTOKISNOTOK battled the others for second and got it for me. Dylan Davis did the piloting for Mitchell Friedman. 

RACE 10 -- BABY YODA (6-1) looked really good with a lengthening stretch run to get first place. I had this one, plu OLYMPIAD in second and DUCATE in third. Jose Ortiz was the winning rider for Billy Mott and the $1 trifecta got you $121,74

RACE 11 -- In the Flower Bowl Stakes, there was no doubt who would get this one as they turned into the stretch and WAR LIKE GODDESS (2/5) won going away. I had GREAT ISALND for place and MYSISTERNAT for show. I got $106.20 back on the Grand Slam. Julian Leparoux did the work for Billy Mott. The $1 trifecta was a small $14. 

RACE 12 -- MAX PLAYER (7/2) proved to be still quite the horse and took the Jockey Club Stakes  HAPPY SAVER got second and FORZA DI ORO finished third. Ricardo Santana did the piloting for good ol' Steve Asmussen. The trifecta returned $27.50 and the Pick 5 paid $360 on the .50 cent wager. 

It was a good day. Let's hope they continue. 

paulie

SARATOGA ENTRIES -- 9/4/21

 

First off -- Happy Labor Day Weekend to you! However you decide to spend it, enjoy it. 

I had originally suggested I would handicap Kentucky Downs today. Well, guess what? They don't start until tomorrow (Sunday), so we'll go back to Saratoga for a strong card that had three stakes races and three on the grass. 

Here we go: 

RACE 8 -- SARANAC STAKES -- GIII -- $200K -- 1-1/16TH MILE -- (TURF) 

1 -- PUBLIC SECTOR

2 -- LIKE THE KING

4 -- NEVER SURRENDER

5 -- FOUNDER

RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE -- $90K -- 1-1/16TH MILE -- (TURF) 

2 -- ELECTRIC YOUTH

1A -- CARA'S DREAMER

6 -- JUST OK IS NOT OK

5 -- GOLDEN OLDIE

RACE 10 -- ALLOWANCE -- $103K -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS

3 -- DUCALE

6 -- OLYMPIAD

8 -- BABY YODA

10 -- HOMETOWN

RACE 11 -- FLOWER BOWL STAKES -- GI -- $600K -- 1-3/8TH MILE -- (TURF) 

3 -- WAR LIKE GODDESS

4 -- MY SISTER NAT

6 -- GREAT ISLAND

7 -- COASTANA

RACE 12 -- JOCKEY CLUB GOLD STAKES -- GI -- $1 MILLION -- 1-14TH MILE

2 -- MAX PLAYER

1 -- FORZA DI ORO

4 -- HAPPY SAVER

5 -- NIGHT OPS

THE PLAY: 

There are several ways to go after this five race sequence, including a .50 cent Pick 5. There is also a Grand Slam from races 8-11 and I used to love to play those. So, let's go with the Pick 5 first. I'll single War Like goddess in the Flower Bowl, go three deep in Races 8-10 and go four deep in the Jockey Club Gold Stakes.

1,2,4/1A,2,6/3,6,8/3/1,2,4,5 -- cost $54

In the Grand Slam, which costs a $1...I'll go four deep in Races 8-10 and single War Like Goddess in the final 

1,2,4,5/1A,2,5,6/3,6,8,10/3 -- cost $64

I'll try to get back in here with any scratches...Good luck ! 

paulie