SARATOGA RESULTS -- 8/28/21

 On the biggest day of racing at the Saratoga meet -- Travers Day -- the racing was excellent and the results pretty good too. 

I looked at the Pick 6 sequence (races 7-12) and gave you 24 selections (four per race). There were no scratches on any of my picks. Out of those selections, I had six winners, three seconds and three thirds. That's a 50% success rate. When you figure there were 18 "payable" spots available and I filled 12 of them, that's a 66% success rate. 

I wondered whether the track would be the "graveyard of favorites" or the "favorites to the winner's circle" yesterday, and, the favorites held sway in the Pick 6 races. 5/2 was the highest winning payout out of the Pick 6 sequence.  Here's how it went: 

Race 7 -- Ballerina Stakes -- GAMINE (2/5) was much the best and I had her and the third place finisher CeCe.  Johnny V and Bob Baffert may just have the best older filly and mare in racing this year in Gamine. An impressive 1:21:61  for the seven furlongs.

Race 8 -- Forego Stakes -- Favorite YAUPON (2-1) got to the wire first and I gave you that one. Ricardo Santana and Steve Asmussen teamed up for the win. The seen furlongs were contested in 1:21:74, just a tad slower than the Ballerina Stakes. This one will long be remembered for FIRENZE FIRE trying to bite YAUPON as the two battled down the stretch. Who did he think he was, Mike Tyson? 

Race 9 -- Allen Jerkins Memorial Stakes -- JACKIE'S WARRIOR (3/2) is a beast and had no trouble with the rest. I gave you that one, plus Life Is Good for second and Following Sea for third.  Asmussen again, with Joel Rosario riding.  The Pick 3 paid a paltry $17.40 on the $1 bet. The time of 1:21:39 for the seven furlongs beat the winning times for the Ballerina and Forego. 

Race 10 -- Personal Ensign Stakes -- LETRUSKA was the 3/5 favorite and ran like it. I had that one. Trained by Fausto Gutierrez  and ridden by Irad Ortiz, they held off Bonny South in the stretch. LETRUSKA was probably my "best bet" of the day, if I did such things, and paid $3.50 on a $2 win bet. 

Race 11 -- Sword Dancer Stakes -- GUFO went off at 5/2 and proven to be the best, holding off Japan. I had both of those, plus third place finisher Cross Border. Joel Rosario got his second win of the Pick 6 sequence, and Gufo is trained by Christophe Clement. 

Race 12 -- The Travers -- Most figured this to be a two horse race, but ESSENTIAL QUALITY (1/2) took control in the stretch and said "See Ya!" to the rest. I gave you him and the second place runner Midnight Bourbon. Brad Cox trained and ridden by Luis Saez, they covered the Derby distance of 1-1/4 miles in 2:01:96. This Pick 3 paid $29.80 on the $1 try and the Pick 6 returned $226.00 on a $1 wager. 

We can pick the winners, and we did yesterday, we just can't pick what we'll get paid. 

We'll give it go next week. They'll be running at Kentucky Downs over the Labor Day weekend and it's always fun to try and figure out the fields on that turf course. 

paulie 

SARATOGA SELECTIONS -- 8/28/21

 

What a day for racing today at Saratoga!  A total of six, Grade I Stakes races -- culminating with the Travers!  And, a rarity, all of them on the dirt. 

First off, though, an apology for not listing the results here at the site from last Saturday. I was disgusted, quite honestly. I successfully hit the late Pick4 and got a whopping $12 back for my (much larger than that) investment. The "graveyard of favorites" wasn't last Saturday. As we like to say here: "We can pick winners, we just can't pick what we'll get paid". That was oh, so, true last Saturday.  Plus, last Sunday was a crazy day -- my dear wife took a tumble Saturday afternoon that necessitated a trip to the emergency room Sunday and a diagnosis that she had broken her wrist . 

You never fully realize or appreciate what a spouse or partner does in a week until you basically have to do it for them. With her right wrist in a cast, I've been her assistant, driver, writer and much more. 

But, onto the card AND THE PICKS! I'll try to jump in and check the scratches closer to post time and list them. 

RACE 7 -- BALLERINA STAKES -- GI -- $500K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

1 -- GAMINE

5 -- SCONSIN

7 -- CECE

6 -- ESTILO TALENTOSO

RACE 8 -- FOREGO STAKES -- GI -- $600K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

1 -- MISCHEVIOUS ALEX

3 -- LEXITONIAN

2 -- WHITMORE

7 -- YAUPON

RACE 9 -- ALLEN JERKINS MEMORIAL -- GI -- $500K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

2 -- JACKIE'S WARRIOR

6 -- LIFE IS GOOD

4 -- FOLLOWING SEA

1 -- DRAIN THE CLOCK

RACE 10 -- PERSONAL ENSIGN STAKES -- GI -- $600K -- 1-1/8 MILE

6 -- LETRUSKA

9 -- GRACEFUL PRINCESS

4 -- SWISS SKYDIVER

 8 -- HARVEY'S LIL GOIL

RACE 11 -- SWORD DANCER STAKES -- GI -- $750K -- 1-1/2 MILE

1 -- TRIBHUVAN 

2 -- GUFO 

6 -- JAPAN

7 -- CROSS BORDER

RACE 12 -- THE TRAVERS -- GI --$1.25 MILLION -- 1-1/4 MILE

2 -- ESSENTIAL QUALITY

1 -- MIDNIGHT BOURBON

4 -- DYNAMIC ONE

3 -- KEEPMEINMIND

THE PLAY

A Pick 6 starts with Race 7 and the temptation is there to chase it. The question is, will it be "favorites rule" at the Spa like it was last Saturday, or "the graveyard of favorites" today? 

I put together a very playable $1 Pick ticket that cost a mere $36. It has two "singles" in it and I'll disclose it here: 

1/1,2,3/2/4.6/1,2,6/1,2

What I'll most likely do, though, is chase a couple of Pick 3's (races 7-9 and races 10-12) with my top four picks in each. The .50 cent wager would run you $32 each. 

Races 7-9:  1,5,6,7/1,2,3,7/1,2,4,6

Races 10-12:  4,6,8,9/1,2,6 7/1,2,3,4

You could play the entire outlay here for an even $100 if you choose. No matter how you chase it, good luck and enjoy this spectacular Saratoga card ! 

paulie

 

SARATOGA SELECTIONS -- 8/21/21

 I am returning to Saratoga Handicapping today despite my less that stellar results there over the past few weeks. If you want good racing in the summer months, it's the track to watch and I couldn't find another "card" as challenging, so. I'll try again. A nice mix of two turf and two dirt races and two stakes races, and a closing race that would be a stakes race if it wasn't a maiden afair, plus a challenging claimer to get the sequence started in Race 8 

~~~~~~~~UPDATED AT 12:15 PM WITH SCRATCHES/CHANGES~~~~~~~

RACE 8 -- CLAIMNG -- $75 K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

2 -- GOLANI BRIGADE

4 -- IDENTIFY POLITICS

8 -- THERISASTORMBREWIN

5 -- CHARLIE FIVE O

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO:  1 -- RESTORING HOPE) SCRATCHED

USE 3 -- VULCAN INSTEAD. 

RACE 9 -- LAKE PLACID STAKES -- GII -- $200K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF)

2 -- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

3 -- EGO TRIP 

6 -- SPANISH LOVE AFFAIR

1 -- ILLIOGAMI

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO:   4 -- RUNWAY RUMOR) 

RACE 10 -- ALABAMA STAKES -- GI -- $600K -- 1-1/TH MILES

6 -- MALATHATT

4 -- MARCUJA

2 -- WILL'S SECRET

3 -- CLAIRIERE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO:  7 -- ARMY WIFE

RACE 11 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- $100K -- 1 MILE (TURF)

12 -- PERFECT GRACE

4 -- SPLIT THEN DOUBLE  SCRATCHED

6 -- INGRESS

9 -- SO ENCHANTING

7 -- MISS BONNIE T  SCRATCHED

(IF SCATCHES OCCUR/ALSO:  1 -- GAUFF) SCRATCHED

The play: 

I'll try the late Pick 4 -- starting in Race 8 -- with my top four picks. Let's just ride those top fur picks through the two stakes races (Races 9 - 10) and end  by going five deep in the maiden final. Since only five horses (as of 12:30) were scheduled for the final, let's play them all except #2 Good Talk 

Good luck! 

Paulie

SARATOGA RESULTS -- 8/14/21

Not the day I had hoped for yesterday.

And -- another reason yesterday why Saratoga is known as the "graveyard of favorites". In the Late Pick 4 sequence yesterday, the odds of the winners were 4-1, 10-1, 13-1 and 8-1. 

I gave you 20 horses to consider and had one scratch. Out of those, I had two winners, three places and three shows. That is a 42% "in the money" rate andd not very good. I filled eight of the 12 "payable spots" for 66%, below my accustom success rate. 

The Pick 4 in Races 8-11 paid $4864.50 on the .50 cent wager. It's the third  straight week I have not hit it up there.

There comes a time when you realize your "system" isn't working at a particular track. You either adjust, wait to see if you system will eventually work or stop playing the track. 

We'll see which I choose when I give it a go next week. 

paulie

SARTOGA SELECTIONS -- 8/14/21

 

Another great day for racing at Saratoga!  The Late Pick 4 offers two stakes races (including the FourStarDave), two competitive allowance race -- two on the turf and two on the dirt. 

Let's have a look: 

RACE 8 -- ALLOWANCE -- $103K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

5 -- DUCALE

1 & 1A -- MAHAAMEL/ASHIHAM

6 -- DEFEATER

3 -- TEN FOR TEN

(ALSO/IF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  7 -- WILL SING FOR WINE)

RACE 9 -- SARATOGA SPECIAL STAKES -- GII -- $200K -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS

7 -- DOUBLE THUNDER

12 -- RED RUN 

2 -- GUNITE

8 -- DOCTOR JEFF

(ALSO/IF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  5 -- STOLEN BASE)

RACE 10 -- FOURSTARDAVE HANDICAP -- GI -- $500K -- ONE MILE (TURF) 

1 -- RAGING BULL 

5 -- SET PIECE

4 -- CASA CREED

6 -- GOT STORMY

(ALSO/IF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  8 -- FIELD PASS) 

RACE 11 -- ALLOWANCE -- $90K -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) 

3 -- FRAT

4 -- DR BLUTE

9 -- DR DUKE

7 -- LUNA'S IN CHARGE

(ALSO/IF SCRATCHES OCCUR: 2 -- NEURO)

The Play:

 I'll take my top four picks in Race 8 (1,3,5,6), then use all five picks in Race 9 (2,5,7,8,12) followed by my top two picks in Race 10 (1,5) and end with my top five picks in Race 11 (2,3,4,7,9) --- for a Late Pick 4 that gives me good coverage and only costs $100 on the .50 cent Pick 4 wager. I do see the FourStarDave as a two-horse affair -- can "FloGeo" and Brad Cox come in and steal one with Set Piece from "the Boss"- Irad Ortiz -  Chad Brown and Raging Bull? Should be exciting! 

Good luck today! I've had two losing Saturdays in a row, so -- I'm ready to nail one ! 

paulie

SARATOGA RESULTS -- 8/7/21

 THE OBJECTIVE WAS TO TAKE DOWN the Late Pick 5 at Saratoga yesterday. Unfortunately, it did not come to pass. I gave you 24 horses to consider, after scratches, and had three winners, four places and five shows. That's a 50% "in the money" number. There were 15 "payable spots" to fill and I filled 12 of them for 80% 

Race 6 saw two my my pick scratch but I still had FLAVUS (6/5) as a winner. I also had TELL YOUR DADDY for place and VALUE PROPOSITION ran third, but for purse money only. Seems he lost a shoe before the race. 

Race 7 got WAR LIKE GODDESS home first for me (4/5) and I also had MY SISTER NAT for second and TEMPLE CITY TERROR show. 

Race 8 was the downfall. BELLA SOFIA (4-1) got the win and I excluded that one. I ran second with SOOPER SENSATIONAL and SEARCH RESULT.

Race 9 was another disappointment.  STATE OF REST lit up the board at 21-1 and I didn't have him. I managed a show out of the race with DU JOUR. I was pretty disappointed in BOISHOI BALLET. 

Race 10 got my pick KNICKS GO to the line first. I also had MAXFIELD for place and SILVER STATE to show. 

The Pick 5 paid $438.25 on the .50 cent variety. I thought that was low...but since I didn't hit it, it really doesn't matter.

We'll give it a go next Saturday

pau;ie

SARATOGA SELECTIONS -- 8/7/21

A great day for racing at "the Spa" today -- six nice stakes races overall. I've chosen the sequence of Races 6-10, which includes three Grade I's and  Grade II. No Pick 4 in this sequence, so I'll look at a Pick 5. 

RACE 6 -- LURE STAKES -- $120K -- 1-1/16TH MILES (TURF) 

1 -- TACTITUS (SCRATCHED)

3 -- VALUE PROPOSITION 

5 -- FLAVIUS 

11 -- DREAMS OF TOMORROW

(IF SCRATHES OCCUR -- 7 -- TELL YOUR DADDY) 

RACE 7 -- GLEN FALLS STAKES -- GII -- $250K -- 1-1.2 MILES (TURF) 

3 -- WAR LIKE GODDESS

5 -- MY SISTER NAT

6 -- DALIKA

2 -- TEMPLE CITY TERROR

(IF SCRTCHES OCCUR -- 1 -- CALL ME LOVE)

RACE 8 -- LONGINES TEST -- GI -- $500K -- SEVEN FURLONGS 

7 -- SEARCH RESULTS 

2 -- SOUPER SENSATIONAL 

3 -- ZAAJEL 

4 -- OBILGATORY

(IF SSCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- ALWAYS CARINA) 

RACE 9 -- SARATOGA DERBY -- GI -- 1-3/16TH MILE -- $1 MIL 

6 -- BOISHOI BALLET

11 -- KING FURY

4 -- CADILLAC 

2 -- DU JOUR

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 8 -- CELLIST) 

RACE 10 -- WHITNEY STAKES -- GI -- 1-18TH MILES -- $1 MIL

4 -- KNICKS GO 

2 -- SILVER STATE 

5 -- MAXFIELD 

1 -- BY MY STANDARDS

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 3 -- SWISS SKYDIVER) 

I'll keep an eye out for scratches, be sure to check back for those....

How will I play the Pick 5? -- I'll take my top two picks in Race 6 (Tacitus and Value Proposition), then my top four picks the rest of the way out. It's a bit pricey at $256, nut should return way more. Good luck however you chase it!

paulie  

SARATOGA RESULTS -- 7/31/21

 Not the best of days handicapping the late Pick 4 at Saratoga yesterday. 

It started with a big thud in Race 8 when LEXITONIAN stayed on the rail and held off the rest of the field to win the Alfred Vanderbilt Grade I Stakes Race at 34-1. This wasn't one of my picks. Even though I rallied and had winners in Races 9 and 10 with ESSENTIAL QUALITY (1/5) and CROSS BORDER (6-1) --- I got thumped again in the final race when THE LAST ZIP zipped by my picks to win at 6-1. Again, not one of my picks. Credit Tyler Gaffilione for a good ride, though.

People call Saratoga "the graveyard of favorites" I call it "the problem for Paulie".after yesterday. 

We'll give it a go next week. Not sure if I'll be trying "the spa" again -- I'll look at the nation's card and see if anything else attracts my attention. 

paulie