Gulfstream Results -- 2/27/21

 What a day of racing at Gulfstream yesterday, with nine stakes races. I had a fairly good day with picks, I didn't take down the late Pick 4 (a 52-1 shot in thee second leg blew that up) but did pretty well on a couple of middle Pick 3's. I also had three trifectas in the nine races I handicapped. 

Out of the 36 picks I provided in the nine races, I had seven winners, seven places and five shows. That's a 53% "in the money" success rate. When you look at there being 27 "payable spots" in those none races, my 17 for 27 = 63%. Let's see how the nine went...

RACE 3 -- I had CON LIMA. who won at 2-1 odds, and I GET IT, who ran third. I also had SPANISH LOVE AFFAIR, who got disqualified and placed fourth. 

RACE 4 -- I couldn't come up with PHANTOM CURRENCY, who won at 7-1 odds, but had a second with TIDE OF THE SEA. 

RACE 6 -- I swept the trifecta here, with ANNEX (6/5) in first, SCARLETT SKY seond and CHESS DREAM third. The trifecta paid $62.80 and the Pick 3 $147.20

RACE 8 -- I connected with VENEZUELAN HUG at 9-2 and also got second with OLYMPIC RUNNER. 

RACE 9 -- I scored with FEARLESS at 5-2 and also ran third with PERFORMER. I really liked TAX in this race, but he was scratched. 

RACE 11 -- Another trifecta here, with GOT STORMY at even money, ZOFELLE in second and FEEL GLORIOUS in third. That returned $24.60. The Pick 3 was worth $118.80

RACE 12 -- This is where it "blew up", as 52-1 shot WHOLEBODEMEISTER shocked the field. I didn't have him. I did have CRAZY BEAUTIFUL for second. 

RACE 13 -- ANTOINETTE got the win for me at 7-2 odds, I also had BELLA LAURA for second and SISTER HANAN for third, That trifecta paid a nice $309.80 !! 

RACE 14 -- In the Fountain of Youth, GREATEST HONOR came roaring down the stretch and got up in time. I had him at even money. I also had second place finisher DRAIN THE CLOCK, who ran a huge race. 

The Late Pick 4 was worth $782.25 on the .50 cent wager. 

All told, I ventured $466 in wagers and got back $663.20. Yes, a lot of work, just to make $200...I could have "put it all" on GOT STORMY, who was the horse of the day for me, and got back $978.60 at even money. You live and learn...

I do think that GREATEST HONOR has a great chance to win the Derby. . I also think  ESSENTIAL QUALITY, who won the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn yesterday, is a bona-fide contender down the road, and showed he could run in the slop. MIDNIGHT BOURBON will be one to watch also. These are my top three Derby favorites as we roll into March. We'll see how they do...

paulie

Gulfstream Picks -- 2/27/21

 What a day of racing today at Gulfstream!  Nine, count 'em, nine stakes races on Fountain of Youth Day !! I've handicapped ALL NINE for you and let's hope for the best today! 

RACE 3 - HERECOMESTHEBRIDE STAKES - GII - 100K - 1-1/16 MILE (TURF) 

1 -- SPANISHLOVEAFFAIR

6 -- TOBY'S HEART

3 -- CON LIMA

4 -- I GET IT

RACE 4 -- MAC DIAMIDA STAKES -- GII -- 200K -- 1-3/8 MILE (TURF) 

8 -- ADMISSIONS OFFICE

1 -- TEMPLE

3 -- TIDE OF THE SEA

7 -- AQUAPHOBIA

RACE 6 -- PALM BEACH STAKES -- 100K -- 1-1/16TH (TURF) 

3 -- SCARLETT SKY

6 -- FIGHTING FORCE 

2 -- ANNEX

8 -- CHESS DREAM 

RACE 8 -- CANADIAN TURF STAKES -- GIII -- 125K -- 1-1/16TH (TURF)

5 -- EONS

2 -- OLYMPIC RUNNER

9 -- WINTERS BACK

6 -- VENEZUELAN HUG

RACE 9 -- GULFSTREAM PARK MILE STAKES -- GII -- 200K -- ONE MILE

5 -- FEARLESS

4 -- PERFORMER

2 -- TAX  scratch

3 -- EYE OF A JEDI

1 -- PHAT MAN

RACE 11 -- HONEY FOX STAKES -- GIII -- 125K -- ONE MILE (TURF)

2 -- GOT STORMY

6 -- ZOFELLE

7 -- FEEL GLORIOUS

5 -- BIENVILLE STREET

RACE 12 -- DAVONA DALE STAKES -- GII -- 200K -- ONE MILE

3 -- VEQUIST

5 -- MILLEFEUILLE

4 -- CURLIN'S CATCH

6 -- CRAZY BEAUTIFUL 

RACE 13 -- THE VERY ONE STAKES -- GIII -- 125K -- 1-3/16 (TURF)

2 -- BELLA LAURA

5 -- HEAVENLY CURLIN

10 -- SISTER HANAN

3 -- ANTOINETTE

RACE 14 -- FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES -- GII -- 300K -- 1-1/16 MILE

8 -- GREATEST HONOUR

4 -- FIRE AT WILL 

1 -- DRAIN THE CLOCK 

7 -- TARANTINO 

You probably noticed I have not included any "if scratches occur" today, but, I'll keep an eye on those and jump back in with additions should those happen. 

THE PLAY: 

I'll chase the Late Pick 4 (races 11-14) and use my top four picks in each sequence in races 11-13.  I do believe The Fountain of Youth (Race 14 is a three-horse race (Greatest Honour, Fire At Will and Drain The Clock) 

I'll try a .50 Pick 4 here: 

2,5,6,7/3,4,5,6/2,5,9,10/1.4.8 -- Cost $96

As for the rest of the stakes races, maybe a four-horse .50 trifecta box on my picks is the way to go. With so many stakes races, it just makes sense and will cut down on money spent.

I wish they ran the stakes races consecutively, so a group of rolling Pick 3's was an option. 

-- If you prefer the multi-race wagers, a suggestion would be a .50 Pick 3, starting in Race 8. 

2,5,6,9/2,4,5/ALL -- Cost $ 66. 

-- And, maybe another .50 Pick 3, starting in Race 3.

1,3,4,6/1,3,7,8/ALL -- Cost $88

A wager of $250 for the day isn't that bad...on such a high-profile day. 

However you decide to play today, good luck to you! 

paulie

Gulfstream Results -- 2/20/21

 An interesting day at Gulfstream with the Paulie Picks and results. I attempted the last four races on the card, had success in three of them, but -- like most handicappers -- fell short in the featured Race 11, when 29-1 longshot Queen Nekia upset the favorites under Corey Lanerie in the Royal Delta Stakes. 

On the day, I gave you 17 picks, if you include the "single" I offered in Race 8, who also got upset by 23-1 longshot Quantum Leap. Out of the picks, I had three winners, three places and three seconds, for a 53% "in the money" percentage. I filled nine of the 13 payable slots -- for a 69% success rate there. 

I didn't "hit" the Pick 5 I tried, nor either of the Pick 3's I offered. Some days, that's how the racing luck goes. 

Race 8 -- the single I offered to start the Pick 5 -- Ghazaaly -- lost by a nose to the longshot Quantum Leap. It was a head bob at the wire, Ghazaaly was 3/5 at post-time and, how can you say it...? -- just beat at the wire. 

Race 9 -- I gve you 8-1 Burly Boy in my picks and he used a stretch run to get there first. That was the only one of my four picks to hit the board, but for Pick 4 players, it kept you alive if you used him. A great ride by Luis Saez. 

Race 10 -- I swept the board here. I gave you Chocolate Bar, who won aat 2-1 odds, Dreams of Tomorrow, who narrowly lost in a photo, and Tulfarris who closed well to get third.  Local favorite Tyler Gaffalione was the pilot. 

Race 11 -- I was sold on three horses, Eres Tu (who ran second), Mrs Danvers ( who closed up shop in the stretch and finished out of the money and Dream Marie, who never fired. My fourth pick, Bajan Girl did get third. None of them would hold off "the Quuen" -- and that killed the Pick 3, which paid a whopping $808 on a .50 cent venture. "The Queen" also knocked me out of the late Pick 3.

Race 12 -- I swept the board here, All Good was "all good and won at 6/5 odds with Irad Ortiz Jr in the saddle. Spinning Kitten grabbed second and Juan Pablo completed the trifecta. That late Pick 3 was worth $237 dollars. 

Sit down for these prices...the late Pick 4 paid $2,412 and the Pick 5 WAS hit and worth $43,540. There was a consolation Pick 5 that paid $184 if you had four out of the five winners in the sequence. 

So, I took a bit of hit on the cash reserves I built up from 2020, but, $144 didn't drain me. I still have plenty of "ammo" left to "fire" with next week

Could I have played it differently yesterday? Well, sure...hitting the "all" button in Race 11 would have worked, but it was a race I didn't see anything besides the three I liked the most getting the win. Honestly, I still can't make a case for Queen Nekia, but maybe she just felt really good yesterday and Corey Lanerie is certainly no slouch as a rifer...I definitely didn't expect her stretch run. 

I remind myself today, that favorites do not win every race. 

Next Saturday brings a HUGE card to Gulfstream with the Road to the Roses stakes race -- the Fountain of Youth --  and NINE stakes races on the card. 

We'll see you then.

paulie

Gulfstream Picks -- 2/20/21

 For today's Paulie Picks, let's return to Gulfstream today --  it appears they have the best card available out of the tracks that are running today and a Grade III race. No derby preps on the docket today, but a good one tomorrow -- if they race at Oaklawn -- in the Southwest Stakes.  We'll see -- they arent' running at the Arkansas track today. 

RACE 9 -- CLAIMING 20K -- ONE MILE  (TURF) 

6 -- ZIPALONG

4 -- MR. AXEL

7 -- BURLY BOY

2 -- ALASTER

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 13 -- MISBEHAVING, 14 ACCESSIBLE) 

RACE 10 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- 25K -- ONE MILE (TURF) 

8 -- DREAMS OF TOMORROW

9 -- TULFARRIS

1 -- CHOCOLATE BAR 

5 -- LAKE NAKARU

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 7-- LOOKING AT ROSES, 2 -- SOUPER WATSON)

RACE 11 -- ROYAL DELTA -- GIII -- 100K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

3 - -ERES TU

7 -- MRE. DANVERS

4 -- DREAM MARIE

6 -- BAJAN GIRL 

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 2 -- GIBBERISH. 1 -- HIGH REWARD) 

RACE 12 -- CLAIMING -- 12K -- 1-1/16TH MILE  (TURF) 

5 -- ALL GOOD

4 -- SPINNING KITTEN

7 -- JUAN PABLO 

2 -- WISE TO LISTEN 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR  -- 13 -- POSITIVE PHIL, 14- CHURCHILL'S VICTORY 

The Plays: 

I really like three horses in the feature and will use them with whatever else I do -- those horses are Eres Tu, Mrs. Danvers and Dream Marie -- and I can't separate them. 

A Pick Four possibility would be to take the top four picks in Races 9 & 10, those three in Race 11, and the top four picks in Race 12.   

2,4,6,7/ 1,5.8.9/ 3,6,7/ 2,4,5,7 

That'll run you $96...on the .50 cent Pick 4. 

Another possibility is to do a couple of Pick 3's -- going with thee top four picks in Races 9 &10 and then those top three in Race 11. Then, going the top four horses in Race 10, top three in Race 11, and top four in Race 12.  Either wager would run you $24 -- on the .50 cent wager

A final option is the .50 Pick 5, that starts in Race 8. There is an 8/5 morning line runner named GHAZAALY  that is trained by Todd Pletcher, was a Triple Crown nominated filly, and ridden by Luis Saez -- that could be screaming out for more distance in the 1-1/8th Maiden Special Weight race. Her daddy was Curlin and it's her second lifetime race. You could play a Pick Five by singling her (#1 on the program) - and then follow the Pick 4 advice for $96 on the .50 Pick 5 wager. 

Good luck today and stay warm!  

paulie 

Gulfsttream Results -- 2/13/21

 A rough day at Gulfstream yesterday for the Paulie Picks. A number of scratches were, in part, responsible for that one could say, but that's how it goes sometimes.  

I started with 20 horses to consider for the final four races, but, that got narrowed down to 15 that actually ran. Out of those, I had two winners, three places and one show. That 40% "in the money" number is lower than I usually produce.  Filling six of the 12 "payable" slots equals 50%, and that's lower than I usually do. 

RACE NINE -- Sadly, the Pick 4 was over for me after the first race in the sequence. None of the four horses that I picked and that ended up running hit the board. A 5-1 ended up getting the win on the "good" turf.  Omnia, with Luiz Saez on board, proved the best  in the cheap claimer. 

RACE 10 -- A 15-1 "bomb" exploded in the mile turf affair. I had three of my pick break from the gate and I managed a second with Ever Dangerous. Corey Lanerie got a nice stretch run out of Flying Dutchman, who has done little in his career before yesterday, for the win. 

RACE 11 -- Mischevious Alex was my top pick and he proved to be the best in the feature race and 2/5 odds. Frosted Grace , also one of my three picks that ran, tried to stay with the Irad Ortiz, Jr ridden winner but fell a bit short. The $1 Pick three returned $311.50 for Races 9,10.11 -- so a lot of bettors other than myself were unsuccessful in their prognostications

RACE 12 -- Even money shot Floriform got the win and he was my top pick. I also had Bracken and El Socio, who ran second and third. A nice maiden special weight score for the Edgard Zayaz ridden runner. The $1 Pick Three returned $59.00 and the Pick Four was a $764.30 score. 

In retrospect, maybe I would have been better off playing the big card at FairGrounds yesterday, where Derby hopeful Mandaloun. with Florent Geroux on board, tracked the leaders and took the lead in the stretch to beat Proxy and Midnight Bourbon in the GII Risen Star. This Brad Cox runner look good in winning the 1-1/16th affair and went off at 2-1.  

We'll give it a go next week, 

paulie

 

Gulfstream Picks 2-13-21

 I had originally planned to go with Oaklawn's picks today, but winter conditions caused a cancellation in the card. The only Kentucky racing would have been - Turfway -- but (you guessed i)t -- cancellation up there also because of winter weather. 

So, let's go to our old standby -- Gulfstream-.  The final four on the Cards have three turf races at a mile and the Grade III Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes, so, the racing isn't all that back for Valentimne's Day weekend. 

RACE 9 -- CLAIMING  - 16K -- 1 MILE (TURF) 

2 -- HOPONTHEBUSGUS

8 -- SCATNAP

1 -- YES FACTOR

5 -- GENERIC MARK

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 9-- YAKO) 

RACE 10 -- OPT. CLAIMING -- 75 K -- 1 MILE  (TURF) 

5 -- STRUCTOR

7 -- EVER DANGEROUS

9 -- ARGENTELLO

1 -- PENALTY

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 8 -- CLEAR VISION) 

RACE 11 -- GULFSTREAM PARK SPRINT STAKES -- GIII -- 100K -- SIX FURLONGS

5 -- MISCHEVIOUS ALEX

6 -- WIND OF CHANGE

7 -- FROSTED GRACE

1 -- EDGEMONT ROAD

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 2 -- SHIVAREE) 

RACE 12 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- 50K -- 1 MILE (TURF) 

3 -- FLORIFORM

12 -- BRACKEN

7 -- EL SOCIO

10 -- PERFORMING ARTS 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 6 -- RASENQUIST) 

THE PLAY: 

I'll just go with a Pick 4 today in these four races. I've struggled getting a Pick 4  that pays much in the last couple of weeks, and the card at Gulfstream today looks a bit chalky in Race 10 and Race 11, but. let's see how it turns out I'll play the top four picks in each race, hope for a price or two along the way and keep an eye out for scratches. The weather forecast is 82 today down there and scattered thunderstorms, so if any of the races are moved from turf to dirt, I'll lose a bit of confidence in thse picks and maybe scramble to find some dirt runners. 

1,2,5,8

1.5.7.9.

1.5.6.7.

3,7,10,12

Good Luck !!

paulie

Tampa Bay Results 2-6-21

An interesting day of racing at Tampa Bay yesterday, with the running of the Sam F Davis Stakes and three other stakes races and a claiming event to close the card. I did pretty well with the Picks, winning four out of the five races -- it was a day where longshots didn't make much noise, though. 

After scratches, I had a total of 20 horses that I outlined break from the gate. Four winners, three seconds and two thirds. A 45% "in the money" number. I filled nine of the 15 "payout" spots for a 60% success rate there. 

Race 8 got me, where I ran second, third, fourth and fifth with my picks. #3 Get Smokin' did not make the lead, which I didn't expect he would, bit came from off the pace to win. 4-1 on this one, I couldn't include him, so any dreams of a Pick 5 died there. I loved Admissions Officer, he ended up third. 

Race 9 brought #4 Curlin's Catch tto the wire first in a race where two horses I really liked got scratched.. The crowd reacted by making him the favorite at 9/5 and I had him.

Race 10 belonged to top pick Counterparty Risk, she battled it out with my second pick New York Girl in the stretch and was best.  She went off at 4/5. That Pic k 3 paid a paltry $27.50

Race 11, the Sam F Davis, was won by Candy Man Rocket, in fine stretch running style. Maybe one to watch for future Derby prep races, he was a 3-1 pick of my. I was a bit disappointed in Known Agenda, who finished third. 

Race 12 had a disqualification of Ain't Wasting Time in stretch for bumping with the eventual winner Indy Ride. I had both in my picks, and the Pick 3 and Pick4 got a little, but not much, boost when the 4-1 was placed first over the 6/5. That Pick 3 brought $55.30 and the Pick 4, which I gave you, was a winner (4-5-9-3) but less than I excepted at $ 145.75 on the .50 cent wager. 

Of note, Junior Alvarado won two of the final five races...John Velazquez, Antonio Gallarado and Ronnie Allen Jr one each. 

Because I had five horses "scratch" on me, I decided I afford a late Pick 4 for the day (Races 9-12) and spent $128 on it, so a small profit of about $17 there. I pretty much gave that back to the other bettors, though, with a "foolhardy" .50 cent Pick 5 where I went with my top two picks, in each race, spent $16 on the bet, and went a dismal 3-5, I was "dead" in that venture after the first race. . 

So, a pleasurable afternoon of watching horsees and didn't get killed in the wagering. We'll give it a go next week. 

paulie

Tampa Bay Picks -- 2/6/21

 We'll stay in Florida today for Paulie's Picks but move over to the west coast and go to Tampa Bay Downs for a challenging card that has four stakes races and a Derby Prep in the Sam F .Davis Stakes. Oh, yeah, the Super Bowl is down in Tampa tomorrow, too -- not that the event has any bearing on the racing card, but John Velazquez, Julien Leparoux, Junior Alvarado and Robbie Albarado  are in town to ride, so...the race card bears watching.

Daniel Centeno, Samy Camacho and Antonio Gallardo are the leading regular jocks at the track.  We'll look at the final five races -- four stakes and a wide open claimer to close the card.

RACE 8 -- TAMPA BAY STAKES -- GIII -- $175 K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF) 

2 -- ADMISSIONS OFFICE

4 -- TALK OR LISTEN

8 -- EONS

12 -- GREYES CREEK 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER --  10- FANCY LIQUOR)

RACE 9 -- SUNCOAST STAKES -- 150K -- 1 MILE, 40 YARDS

7 -- GULF COAST   (Scratched) 

2 -- FEELING MISCHIEF

6 -- SCENIC OVERLOOK

5 -- HONORIFIQUE  (Scratched) 

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 10- SPECIAL PRINCESS and 4 - CURLIN CATCH) ) 

RACE 10 -- ENDEAVOUR STAKES -- GIII -- $175K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF) 

5 -- CONTERPARTY RISK

6 -- NEW YORK GIRL 

8 -- IRONY OF REALITY

2 -- LOGIC N REASON  (SCRATCHED) 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER --  7 -- KELSEY'S CROSS) 

RACE 11 -- SAM F DAVIS STAKES -- GIII -- 250K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

3 -- KNOWN AGENDA

1 -- HIDDEN STASH

5 -- SMILEY SOBOTKA

9 -- CANDY MAN ROCKET

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 7 -- BOCA BOY

RACE 12 -- CLAIMING 8K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

10 -- FIRST DEGREE

8 -- AIN'T WASTING TIME

3 -- INDY RIDE

7 -- FREE FLAYME

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ALSO CONSIDER -- 2 -- BUDGET BUSTER,)

THE PLAY: 

I'll look to maybe try a few Pick 3's in the sequence. The Pick 5 starts in Race 8 and the Pick 4 starts in Race 9 -- these could be pretty substantial wagers and I guess it all comes down to how much you want to spend today? -- I'm probably going to "layer" three Pick 3's and see how they do: 

If I do it, I'll keep it simple:  I'll play all five picks each race, and go a sequence of Races 8.9.10 / Races 9,10,11 and then Races 10,11,12. It's a total outlay of $187.50. 

Of course, play 'em anyway you like.  A Pick 5 thought I had was:  2,4,8,12/ 2,5.6.7/5,6,8/1,3,5/3,7,8,10...it's a pretty hefty $288 outlay, but...the reward could be very profitable. Consider the risk vs. reward angle and factor in your balance (of course) and what you want to spend. 

Another way to go is the five horse, .50 cent trifecta box in each race. That'll run you $30 a race and is a total outlay of $150. You could cover the cost by hitting just one or two of these today, and maybe get a nice profit -- it just depends on how your fellow bettors play them 

Also, be advised that they do expect a little rain down there today around 3 p.m. That's right around the start of Race 7, so Race 8 (turf) and Race 10 (turf) could always be switched to the main track and the fast dirt track conditions could change.  

Good luck today! 

paulie