CHURCHILL RESULTS -- 11/28/20

 An interesting day of racing at Churchill yesterday, no doubt. I handicapped the final four races on the card and "got the sweep" -- hitting all four of them with winners. In fact, I had the top three finishers in all four events (Races 9-12) in a sequence where we saw a 9/2, even money, 2-1 and 4-1 take the prizes. 

I gave you 24 horses to consider over the final four races, 12 finished in the money for a 50% IN THE MONEY percentage. I DID GO 12 FOR 12 in the payout slots. 

Race 9 featured 9/2 odds TRAVEL COLUMN overcoming a tough trip and blowing by odds-on favorite SIMPLY RAVISHING in the stretch for the win. The favorite did not hit the board, which set up a nice trifecta for me that paid $81.05 on the .50 cent, five horse tri box in the Golden Rod Stakes  

Race 10 was all about the favorite. MANDALOUN toyed with the field before destroying the rest in the stretch to win pretty easily. That trifecta wasn't a great pay, returning $38.80, but, it covered the $30 tri boxes I settled on as my wagering strategy yesterday. 

Race 11 gave us 2-1 KEEPMEINMIND getting to the winner's circle in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. This one was a "last to first" winner, trailing the field until the top of the stretch, and then swinging seven-wide and charging down the center of the track to catch and pass the leader and win by a length. The tri paid $35.70. If you were playin Pick 3's, sorry about your luck...you got back just $19 on a .50 cent wager. 

Race 12 belonged to RUNWAY MAGIC. He broke his maiden in front running style and held off the rest at 4-1 odds. A good ride from Julian Leparoux to hold off hard-charging OUTASITE and REPO ROCKS. A trifecta return of $41.25, the Pick 3 got you $23.30 and the Pick 4 was worth $169.50.

If you followed my picks yesterday, you experienced the rarity of hitting the Pick 4 and actually losing money. As we've said here beffore, though, I can pick winners, but I can't pick what they pay. At least they were winners.

Today concludes the Fall Churchill meet and there are mandatory payouts for all the multi-race options. Due to commitments at my other site (CARDINAL COUPLE) I won't be providing any picks for the clsoing card. 

WE'LL SEE YOU IN 2021. Stay safe and best of luck to you! 

PAULIE  

CHURCHILL SELECTIONS -- 11/28/20

 A great card for Saturday racing, highlighted by two stakes races in the final four. It's "two-year old" day today at Churchill, with the Golden Rod Stakes and Ky Jockey Club Stakes to be run in Races 9 &11.. 

The two-year olds can be quite unpredictable. If you're going to do the "multi race" wagers, be sure and protect yourself and give yourself enough coverage. To be honest with you, Race 9 looks like (at least on paper) Simply Ravishing's to lose. After that, it's throw a dart at a board, pretty much. Bot, I've put some time into it and got the best I can come up with here for you in the final four races of the day. 

RACE 9 -- GOLDEN ROD STAKES -- GII - $200K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

8 -- SIMPLY RAVISHING

5 -- TRAVEL COLUM

6 -- CLAIRIERE

3 -- COACH

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER):

9 -- PRINCESS THEOREM

10 -- ALEXANDRIA

RACE 10 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- 75K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

4 -- PICO D' ORO

10 -- MANDALOUN

11 -- ULTIMATE

3 -- TWILIGHT BLUE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER): 

1 -- KING'S OVATION

6 -- FOUNDER

RACE 11 -- KY JOCKEY CLUB STAKES -- GII -- $200K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

1 -- SITTIN ON GO

4 -- KEEPMEINMIND

2 -- SWILL 

3 -- ARABIAN PRINCE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER): 

5 -- INSPECTOR FROST

7 -- KING FURY

RACE 12 -- MAIDEN -- 85K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

10 -- RUNWAY MAGIC

11 -- GROUP HUG

6 -- LAUGHING BOY

7 -- OUTASITE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER):

4 -- REPO ROCKS

9 -- SABUDA

 

THE PLAY: 

I'll probably go with the trifecta boxes again today, they really paid off Friday. A couple of Pick 3's aren't out of the question as well. As for a Pick 4, I'll offer one here -- but haven't decided if I want to play it yet or not. (These last three races are VERY challenging) 

Pick 4 possibility:

Race 9 -- 5,6,8

Race 10 -- 1,3,4,6,10,11

Race 11 -- 1,2,3,4

Race 12 -- 4,6,7,9,10,11

COST: $216 on the .50 bet

If that's a bit pricey for you, you could try a "single" in Race 9 with SIMPLY RAVISHING, but I rarely "single" and -- based on what the Pick 4 paid yesterday -- with NO favorites winning in the final five races and a $7000+ payday in the sequence, the old adage "spend a little more to make a bunch" seems like it could be a wise one to follow. 

In any event, play 'em anyway you like. I'll probably go deep on things, I'm way ahead for the meet and the year and can do it.

This will be the final Paulie Picks edition until mid January, when Pegasus World Cup goes at Gulfstream and, soon after. important Derby Preps start to come together. See ya then! 

paulie

CHURCHILL RESULTS 11/27/20

 I outlined five races for Friday's card at Churchill and had some successes with the picks. I looked at the final five on the Friday card (Races 7-11) and came up with four winners, four places and four shows. I offered 29 "horses to consider" after scratches, so the "in the money percentage was 41%. When you consider there were 15 "money spots"(win, place and show) to fill, and I filled 12 of them, that percentage is 73%

We hit two Pick Threes in the sequence and also three trifectas. Let's look at the results. 

Race 7 gave us the top three finishers out of my picks. Funnybet took the race at 4-1 odds and this one was my top pick. That trifecta returned $48.50 on the .50 cent box. 

Race 8 belonged to Villanelle. She went off at 4-1 odds. I also had the trifecta in this race and it paid $119.50 on the .50 cent box. 

Race 9 ended with Hog Creek Hustle holding off the rest in the stretch and it was my top pick in the race. "The Hog" went off at 3-1 odds. That also gave me the first Pick 3 I attempted and it paid $57.80 on the ,50 cent attempt. 

Race 10, the Clark Handicap delivered a bit of a price upset when Bodexpress crossed the line first at 11-1 odds. I loved the runner, though, it was my top pick and set up a nice trifectas that returned $196.50. The finish also gave me my second Pick 3 of the five race sequence that paid $318 on the ,50 attempt. 

Race 11 was the only surprise (for me) in the sequence. I was a just a couple of strides away from getting Shell Shock home first (at 12-1 odds), when Atlanta his nose in front to take the win, I didn't have this first time starter in my picks...but got a belated second and third in the race. I can't blame the jock on Shell Shock (Albin Jimenez) for the narrow loss, but I do have to wonder if a more experienced...well, never mind. My favorite in the race (My Mane Girl) never fired and there was a key scratch when (Silverbella) backed out of the affair. 

The Pick Four (2-4-8-3) paid $7889 on the .50 cent wager. I didn't try it, if you did, I hope you figured Atlanta in that final leg somehow. 

Saturday's card looks challenging, indeed.  I'll have a new post later this morning with my picks for it. 

CHURCHILL SELECTIONS 11-27-20

 The Clark Handicap is the feature for Friday Churchill racing and the Grade I event looks like a good one with plenty of talent on hand. There's also TWO great allowance races, a maiden affair and a optional claiming event in the final five races, so let's go get that money! 

RACE 7 -- ALLOWANCE -- 5OK -- 1-1/16TH MILE 

2 -- FUNNYBET

7 -- GRAYSONSMACHOGAL

4 -- MALIBU MARLEE

8 -- STRIPPING

(IF SCRACTHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER 9 -- TONAL VISION, 1 -- HASHTAG WINNER)

RACE 8 -- ALLOWANCE --  87K -- 1-1/16TH MILE 

7 -- LONGPANTS REQUIRED

6 -- TEMPERS RISING

1 - O SERAPHINA

2 -- VILLANELLE

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ OTHERS TO CONSIDER -- 5 -- QUIET DIGNITY, 9 -- MYLASTFIRSTKISS) 

RACE 9 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- 80K -- 1 MILE

4 -- HOG CREEK HUSTLE

8 -- LOOKING AT BIKINIS

2 -- SIGNALMAN

5 -- DABO 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER -- 9 -- HOME BASE, 1 -- THIRSTFORLIFE) 

RACE 10 -- CLARK HANDICAP -- GI -- 500K -- 1-1/8TH MILE

8 -- BODEXPRESS

12 -- BY MY STANDARDS

9 -- OWENDALE

3 -- CODE OF HONOR

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER) -- 7 -- MR FREEZE, 5 -- AURELIUS MAXIMUS) 

RACE 11 -- MAIDEN -- 85K -- SIX FURLONGS

1 -- MY MANE GIRL

7 -- SILVERBELLA

4 -- SPEIGHTLY SHIRL

9 -- FAVORITE SIN 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ OTHER TO CONSIDER) -- 5 -- SHELL SHOCK, 8 -- KISS THEORY)

THE PLAY: 

I had success with a couple of Pick 3's last Saturday, so I'll go back there again with a Race 7,8,9 try and a Race 9,10,11 wager.   There's a Pick 5 here, it could get pricey so buyer beware. The Pick 4 starts on Race 8, I'm passing on it but don't let my hesitance stop you. Trifectas look promising today also, I'll probably do some "boxing" on those. 

Good luck! 

paulie

CHURCHILL RESULTS 11/21/20

A bit of a cloudy, drizzly day at the Twin Spires yesterday but some very good racing and I did pretty well. I gave you my picks for the final four races on the card (races 7-10) and ended up hitting the Pick 4 and both Pick 3's I tried. 

After scratches, I had 21 runners compete in the four races, out of those -- I had four winners, four places and two shows. That's a 48% "in the money percentage. I filled 10 of the 12 "payable" spots available -- for a  83% success rate there. 

The two Pic 3's I tried (Races 6-8 and 8-10) paid $235.60 and $20.55 on the .50 variety. That's $256.15 total and I invested $144.00 -- so I ended up with a $112 profit. On the Pick 4, .50 variety - the return was $311.95 and the investment was $144 -- so the profit was $167. 

The trifectas weren't quite as profitable. I did (4) tri boxes of five horses -- which cost $30 each on the .50 wager. I hit to of them -- paying $89.76 in Race 7 and $59 in Race 9....so a return of $148 on an investment of $120 and a $28 profit. 

It was my "if scratches occur -- others to consider" selections that bailed me out. In Race 7 RADIANTRHYTHM got the win at 10-1 odds and this one wasn't one of my top 4. Race 8 brought THREE TIPSY CHIX home first at 5/2 and this one was in my top four. FINITE was "all that" in Race 9 and was a popular pick (and my top pick) at 6/5 odds. In Race 10, the scratch of BLANKET OF ROSES made handicappers scramble and NEW EAGLE ended up a 2-1 price and won. I has this one on my "alternate" list. 

Sometimes you have to go deep. It may cost you a bit more, but, it'll usually provide a winning ticket. If it's maybe a "chalky" day -- like the final three races were -- with 5/2, 6/5 and 2-1 winners -- remember that a winning ticket is just that and that's why we play them.

It beats throwing a loser on the ground, tight? 

I hear horseplayers talk about not wanting to invest a bunch of money in a particular sequence or type of bet...but that is a "scared" philosophy and usually ends up in a losing ticket. Sometimes, you have to include the favorites with your long shot picks. 

Like anything else in financial realms, you have to spend a little money to make a little money. I wagered a total of $408 in my bets yesterday. I got back $717. I'll take a profit of $300+ any day at the track, and if I have to spend a little extra to get the reward, the ultimate success justifies the initial investment. If the profit exceeds the investment...guess what? YOU MADE MONEY!

As my late friend Gold Room Scotty used to say, "We can pick the winners, we just can't pick what we'll get paid." 

With Thanksgiving just around the corner, I'll have "day after Turkey Day" selections here Friday and then my usual Saturday selections. 

Since I won't see you until after Thanksgiving, I hope yours is a good one. I know the travelling aspects are risky now and your crowd may be smaller than most years in a lot of cases...but, remember, the sacrifices we make today will pay off down the road, so attribute it to planning for the future, watch a lot of sports over the Thursday-Sunday stretch and stay healthy.

paulie

CHURCHILL SELECTIONS -- 11/21/20

 It looks to be a good day for racing this Saturday at Churchill -- the rain maybe coming in later, but, a wide variety of types of races. We have a optional claimer, maiden special weight, Grade III Chilukki Stakes and we end up with a lower level claimer. 

It's been decided that Churchill won't run on the turf for the remainder of the meet, the surface isn't responding well to this wacky fall weather, so to the dirt we go and stay. Let's look at the late Pick 4. 

RACE 7 --OPTIONAL CLAIMING 20K -- SIX FURLONGS

7 -- KIFFLE

5 -- TAKE CHARGE ERICA 

6 -- IT'S COLD IN DEHERE

8 -- JUST FLY

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- OTHER TO CONSIDER: 4-- RADIANTRHYTHM -- 9 -- PARKING TICKET)

RACE 8 -- MAIDEN SPECUAL WEIGHT -- 85K -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS

5 -- WILD COMBO

12 -- TROUBLE MAKING

10 -- FOOLERY

1 -- THREE TIPSY CHIX

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR- OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 13- EUPHONIC -- 6 -- MARION FRANCIS) 

RACE 9 -- CHILUKKI STAKES -- G III - 100K -- ONE MILE

2 -- FINITE 

3 -- GRAND CRU CLASSIC

6 -- RISKY MANDATE

9 -- SANENUS 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR- OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 1 -- NEW ROO -- 4 -- WHOA NELLIE)

RACE 10 -- CLAIMING -- 10K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

1 -- BAHAMA CHANNEL

8 -- BLANKET OF ROSES

11 -- SMIRK

7 -- MARTIAL EAGLE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 2 -- GAMBLERS FANTASY -- 4 - NEW EAGLE) 

The Play:

So many ways to go after these final four today, depending on how much you want to "put down" to invest. I'll probably go with a couple of  .50 cent Pick 3's and I'm going to back track here in doing so with a VERY competitive 6th race where (4) horses stand out and above the rest. 

So, I'll try: 

Race 6 -- 1,2,3,6

Race 7 -- 4,5,6,7,8.9

Race 8 -- 1.5,6,10,12,13

Cost: $72

*********************************

Race 8 -- 1.5.6.10.12.13

Race 9 -- 2,3,6,9

Race 10 -- 1,2,4,7,8,11

Cost $72

Just to keep things interesting, I'll toss in a small Pick 5 as well, starting in Race 6: 

1,2,3,6/ 5,6,7/5,10,12/2,3,9/1/8/

Cost $108

You can devise a Pick 4 out of this, of course -- and I'd suggest 

5,6,7/ 1,5,10,12/2,3,6,9/1,8/11

Cost $72

Play 'em  anyway you like...trifectas could get pricey if you "box" so maybe do some wheeling with the picks. ..

Good luck! 

paulie

CHURCHILL RESULTS -- 11/14/20

 A good day yesterday handicapping the final four races at Churchill Downs. I had three scratches face me, so I had to do a bit of late scrambling with the bets and the feature race-- the 9th and Grade III Ms. Revere was moved to the dirt from the turf, but I still managed to hit that one. 

In the final analysis, I had 20 runners go forth...when you look at my top picks and my "if scratches occur" selections. Out of those, I had 4 winners, 4 seconds and 1 show.  So, it wasn't a grand day for trifectas, but, I did give you four exactas and the Pick 4. The "in the money" percentage was 45% and I filled nine of the 12 "payable" slots for a 75% success rate there. 

Race 8 brought BIG BEAUTIFUL WALL to the wire first and he rewarded us at 14-1 with Julian Leparoux on board for one of my favorite Churchill trainers --  Paul McGee. MAKE NOISE scratched, which necessitated putting Big Beautiful Wall into the mix and he got it done  That exacta paid $131 on the $1 investment. 

Race 9 saw PATIO FLAG draw a lot of money after VILLANELLE scratched and she edged out the favorite OCEAN BREEZE at 7-5 odds to get to the wire first. The combination  of Santana riding and Asmussen training scores again and the $1 exacta paid a small $4.80 

Race 10, the feature racce -- the Ms. Revere Grade III,  drew a lot of money on winner PRINCESS GRACE after favorite HENDY WOODS scratched and she fulfilled the backers belief at 5-2 odds. PASS THE PLATE, trained by Paul McGee, could not catch her in the stretch. Meet leading rider Florent Geroux was the winning jockey and the $1 exacta got you $16.60. That race was the only trifecta I hit, receiving $68.70. If you decided to "roll your Pick 3's" in the final four races this one rewarded you with a $89.50 payout on the .50 cent attempt. 

The final race of the day Race 11 is where I thought there might be a longshot winner. It ran pretty true to form, though, with 5-2 HONORIFIQUE nosing out ROOKERY for the final win on the day. $.9.90 on the $1 exacta, that rolling Pick 3 got you $27.40 on the .50 cent wager and the late Pick Four, with the numbers 9-2-4-12 rewarded you with $370.35 on the ,50 cent try. Tyler Gaffalione rode the winner. 

If you played the Paulie Picks for the final Pick 4 verbatim, you laid out $135 for a $370 return, so that gave you a +$235 profit. The trifectas, though cost $30 a race for $120, and just got me back $68, so I lost $52 there. But, that still had me up $183 on the day. I'll take it. 

If you had gone the five-horse, $1 exacta box route for the four races, you would have turned your $80 investment into $162, a $82 profit...so congratulations if that's how you played the day. 

                                                         *********************************                   

We'll give it a go again next Saturday for closing weekend at Churchill. A longstanding tradition of mine of hitting the track on the Friday after Thanksgiving probably isn't going to happen, with this Covid shit getting worse each day, but, I may look at the final four races there as well and offer you FRIDAY and SATURDAY selections next week. 

paulie 

 . 

CHURCHILL SELECTIONS -- 11/14/20

 

Fall racing today at Churchill and dry, if a bit breezy, temps face the runners. In other words, typical fall conditions at the Twin Spires. A variety of races on tap for the final four on the card today -- a mis-level claiming, allowance, Stakes race and maiden affair -- all at distances of a mile or better. Three on the dirt, one goes on the turf. 

A very competitive card awaits us, let's get into it with the picks! 

RACE 8 -- CLAIMING 50K -- I MILE

5 -- MO'S MOJO

7 -- ESKENFORIT

2 -- MO ZONE

10 -- LONELY PRIVATE (SCRATCHED)

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 3 -- MAKE NOISE  9-- BIG BEAUTIFUL WALL

RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE 87K -- 1 MILE

4 -- OCEAN BREEZE 

7 -- LOADED

1 -- VILLANELLE (SCRATCHED)

2 -- PALIO FLAG

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- CHAMPAGNE HORIZON) 

RACE 10 -- MS. REVERE STAKES -- GIII -- 200K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF) 

3 -- STUNNING SKY

1 -- HENDY WOODS (SCRATCHED )

4 -- PRINCESS GRACE

6 -- PASS THE PLATE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- HOW IRONIC) 

RACE 11 -- MAIDEN 85K -- 1 MILE

2 -- GRACE'S SECRET

11 -- ROOKERY

12-  HONORIFIQUE

9 -- EMPRESS CATHERINE 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 1 -- HIGH FASHION) 

The Play: 

After the successes of Breeders Cup last week, we've got a little money to toss around today. I'll look at trifecta boxes in the four races and probably try a Pick 4 that gives me plenty of coverage in Races 8 and 11 and 2-3 horses in Race 9 and 10. 

You might look at:

RACE 8 -- 2,3,5,7,9

RACE 9 -- 1,4,7

RACE 10 -- 1.3.4 

RACE 11 -- 1,2,3,9.11,12

There is quite a battle going on for top jockey at Churchill for the fall meet, and Florent Geroux currently sits a top the standings with 16 wins. You'll notice that he also has mounts in all four of these races I've looked at today and he's in my selections in Races 9-11. Tyler Gaffalione has 15 wins at the meet and he has three mounts in the final four races.  Ricardo Santana also has 15 wins and I always keep an eye out for him when he's teamed up with trainer Steve Asmussen. They hook up in RACE 9 AND 11, 

An old race track adage goes "A horse can't be set aside if on board is a great ride." 

Play 'em anyway you like and GOOD LUCK! 

paulie

SATURDAY BREEDERS CUP RESULTS

 An exciting day of Breeders Cup action yesterday! If I was reminded of one thing (and I kinda, sorta knew this going into the day's racing) is that you pay special attention to Irish and European horses running in turf races. 

There were four turf races yesterday, and "shippers from overseas" won all four of them. Irish trainer Aiden O'Brien, in fact...swept Race 9 -- The Breeders Cup Turf Mile -- and his entry Order of Australia, the also-eligible #15 horse  shocked the racing world at 73-1 odds. I only hit one turf race, in Race 11, when Irish bred Tarwana took the 1-1/2 mile affair at 9/2 odds. 

On the day, I gave you 48 horses to consider over the nine Breeders Cup races. Out of those, I had six winners, six places and six shows. That's a lower percentage than I usually come up with at 37.5%. When you consider there were 27 "money spots" available, I filed 67% of them. 

I did give you three trifectas (races 4, 8, and 12) and that was a day-saver. They paid (on the .50 box) $13.00, $546.00 and $71.10. Those his more than covered me for the day, I only hit one of the Pick Threes I tried -- it paid $47.20, with Monomoy Girl, Tarwana and Authentic getting to the wire firsr.. I On the trifectas, I did a five-horse, .50 tri box which cost $30. So, I wagered $270 over the nine races on them. I got back $630. That had me up $360. The three Pick threes cost $62.50 each ($187.50 total) and returned just $47...so that was a $140 loss, but the day was still a profit of $220. 

I'll take it...and THANK YOU Whitmore!!! ...who hit at 18-1 and created that huge Race 8 trifecta. 

I didn't play any, but I also lined out six exactas. 

Winners for me ( and hopefully you too) were:

Race 4: Gamine 2-1) -- Race 6: Knicks Go (9/5)  -- Race 8: Whitmore (18-1) -- Race 10: Monomoy Girl (1-1) -- Race 11: Tarwana (9/2) and Race 12: Improbable (4-1). 

Although I did a lor better Friday...giving you five winners in five races and the three Pick 3's, the late Pick 4 and the Pick 5....the Saturday card was a profit maker for me, so I'll take it. 

There are three weeks of racing left at Churchill in the November meet, so I'll be back for those Saturday Races...may throw in Thanksgiving and day after Thanksgiving cards as well and see if we can build a little more profit before we take a break here until the early spring.

paulie   

BREEDERS CUP SATURDAY -- FRIDAY RECAP

 Nine big races today in the Breeders Cup at Keeneland and the early undercard is pretty competitive as well. I've provided my picks here for the nine Breeders Cup races, starting in Race 4, but let's review Friday before we get into that.

I gave you five winners in the five Breeders Cup races Friday! Highlighted by 30-1 Fire At Will in the Juvenile Turf, I provided you the winners in all Pick 3's in the sequence, the late Pick 4 and the Pick 5. I hope that lick continues today. Listed below are my top four picks for each race and one or two alternates, in case of scratches or you want to go "deep" in a particular race. 

RACE 4 -- BC FILLY AND MARE SPRINT -- 7 FURLONGS

7 -- SERENGETI EMPRESS

2 -  GAMINE

9 -- BELL'S THE ONE

5 -- SCONSIN 

( 3 -- COME DANCING)

RACE 5 -- BC TURF SPRINT -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) 

12 -- GOT STORMY

7 -- LEINSTAR

8 -- OLEKSANDRA

9 -- INTO MYSTIC

(2 -- JUST MIGHT)  (3 - IMPRIMUS) 

RACE 6 -- BC DIRT MILE -- 1 MILE

5 -- KNICKS GO

4 -- WAR OF WILL

10 -- COMPLEXITY

1 -- ART COLLECTOR

(12 -- OWENDALE) 

RACE 7 -- BC FILLY AND MARE TURF -- 1-3/16TH MILE (TURF) 

4 -- MEAN MARY

1 -- STARSHIP JUBILEE

6 -- RUSHING FALL

2 -- SISTER CHARLIE

(14 -- CAYENNE PEPPER)  (9 -- HARVEY'S LIL GOIL) 

RACE 8 -- BC SPRINT -- 6 FURL

2 -- CZ ROCKET

8 -- FIRENZA FIRE

7 -- WHITMORE 

3 -- COLLUSION ILLUSION

(11 -- DIAMOND OOPS)  (10 -- YAUPON) 

RACE 9 -- BC TURF MILE -- 1 MILE (TURF) 

13 -- FACTOR THIS

5 -- DIGITAL AGE

8 -- MARCH TO THE ARCH

12 -- UNI 

(2 -- KAMEKO)  (9 -- ONE MASTER) 

RACE 10 -- BC DISTAFF -- 1-1/8TH MILE

5 -- SWISS SKYDIVER

10 -- MONOMOY GIRL

8 -- VALIANCE

9 -- OLLIE'S CANDY 

(7 -- POINT OF HONOR)  (2 -- HARVEST MOON) 

RACE 11 -- BC TURF -- 1-1/2 MILE (TURF) 

1 -- ARKLOW

9 -- CHANNEL MAKER

2 -- MAGICAL

10 -- MOGUL 

( 3 -- TARWANA)  (7 -- UNITED) 

RACE 12 -- BC CLASSIC -- 1-1/4TH MILE 

2 -- TIZ THE LAW

8 -- IMPROBABLE

9 -- AUTHENTIC

10 -- MAXIMUM SECURITY

(4 -- TOM D'ETAT)  (1 -- TACITUS) 

STRATEGY: 

With nine races, there are a ton of betting options available. I'm probably going to bet three Pick 3's (Races 4-6, 7-9 and 10-12) and maybe a late Pick 4 (Races 9 -12). There's money to be made today on exactas and tris, though, if you prefer. 

The Europeans on the turf are always a hard entity to figure out. With four turf races, there is a chance there will be a couple of European wins -- be mindful of this and if yousee a dramatic "odds drop" on a European runner -- it might be "wise guy" money and consider. 

Good luck today. It's a beautiful day for racing and it starts early (10:15 a.m.) 

paulie

BREEDERS CUP FRIDAY 11/6/20

 Five juvenile races in the Friday edition of Breeders Cup and some very tough ones to call in these. We'll give it a shot and see...

RACE 6 -- JUVENILE TURF SPRINT --  $1 MILLION -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) 

14 -- GOLDEN PAL   (EASY WINNER) 

10 -- BODENHEIMER

5 -- COWAN (GOT UP FOR SECOND)

3 -- LIPIZZANER

RACE 7 -- JUVENILE TURF --  $ 1 MILLION -- 1 MILE (TURF) 

5 -- CADILLAC

11 -- GRETZKEY THE GREAT

12 -- GO ATHLETICO

7 -- FIRE AT WILL   (BOOM!  30-1 WINNER !)  

RACE 8 -- JUVENILE FILLIES -- $2 MILLION -- 1-1/16TH MILE

3 -- DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE  (HELD ON FOR SECOND)

2 -- VEQUIST (WON FOR FUN)

1 -- SIMPLY RAVISHING

7 -- PRINCESS NOOR

RACE 9 -- JUVENILE FILLIES TURF -- $2 MILLION -- 1-1/16TH (TURF)

5 -- AUNT PEARL (WIRE-TO-WIRE CONVINCING WINNER)

4 -- PLUM ALI

10 -- CAMPANELLE

12 -- SPANISH LOVE AFFAIR

RACE 10 -- JUVENILE --  $2 MILLION -- 1-1/16TH 

7 -- JACKIE'S WARRIOR

5 -- ESSENTIAL QUALITY ( GOT 'EM IN THE STRETCH!)

13 -- RAMBAUER

8 -- CLASSIER

Good luck today with the card! There is a Pick 5 available for these five races, if you don't want to go too deeep in the pocket, maybe try two Pick 3's? Or the Pick 4 starting in Race 7 

If there are any scratches, I'll try and jump in here with them as they develop. 

paulie

CHURCHILL RESULTS -- 10/31/20

An interesting ans a bit weird day out at Churchill yesterday. The officials decided to take the 7th and 10th races off the turf, which kinda messed up my handicapping efforts. Despite this, I still managed to give you the winner in each "off the gtass" races. Then, the races on the dirt didn't turn out as I planned. 

After scratches, I had 15 of the horses I selected break from the gate.in the final four races of day. Out of those, I had two winners, one place and two shows. A rather low 33% "in the money" percentage. I filled five of the 12 "payable spots" -- for a 42% success race. 

Race 7 featured Phantom Currency hitting the wire first at 7-1 odds. This one was my "if scratches occur" picks. 

Race 8 hurt me, out of my five picks, all I got was a third place finish with Amusing Antics. 4-1 Modern Waltz got the win. 

Race 9 shut me out mostly as well, with just my "if scratches occur" pick Bourbon Calling hitting the board for second. 8-1 Crafty Daddy got the win

Race 10 had Better With Age going to the winners circle and I had this one at 5-2 odds. 

The Pick Four paid a whopping $1794 on the .50 cent wager.  

The action moves to Keeneland for my handicapping pursuits and the Breeders Cup next week. I'll post Friday and Saturday picks on ALL the Breeders Cup races and we'll see how me do. 

paulie