OAKS FIELD AND POSTS

We now know who will contest the Kentucky Oaks and what post they'll break from.

The Oaks is contested at 1-1/8th miles on the dirt. 14 horses contest the distance of Friday of Derby Week.

Here's the list by post position, morning line odds and jockey:

1)  OUT FOR A SPIN  16-1    Irad Ortiz

2) CHOCOLATE KISSES  20-1   Julian Leparoux

3) LADY APPLE  20-1  Ricardo Santana

4) BELLAFINA  2-1  Flavian Prat

5) FLOR DE LA MAR  20-1  Joel Rosario

6)  POSITIVE SPIRIT  30-1  Manual Franco

7) JAYWALK  8-1  Javier Castallano

8) MOTION EMOTION  15-1  Mike Smith

9)  LIORA  20-1  Channing Hill

10)  CHAMPANGE ANYONE  6-1   (unnamed jockey yet)

11)  JELTRIN  15-1  Luis Saez

12)  STREET BAND  15-1  Sophie Doyle

13)  SERENGETI EMPRESS  8-1  Jose Ortiz

14)  RESTLESS RIDER  6-1  Brian Hernandez, Jr


Analysis:

Bellafina didn't get hurt at all with the four spot. No rail post to deal with and I'll take 2-1 all day, every day on this one. I doubt it stays there. Out For A Spin, one of my five I like, got the rail and that isn't good but maybe a little early speed will get her out of the danger being there presents. Lady Apple  should be OK with a #3 post, Baffert should have confidence in Ricardo Santana to so  the right thing with her early. Champagne Anyone is OK with the #10 hole, I'll look to see who takes this ride. There are some very good jockeys remaining to choose from... Johnny Velasquez, trainer Ian Wilkes son-in-law Chris Landeros, Joe Talamo, Rafael Bejarano and Corey Lanerie, just to name a few. Liora  is OK with where she is at #9, Channing Hill probably wouldn't be my first choice to ride her, but who am I to question owner and trainer decisions?

8-1 on Serengeti Empress surprises me, especially with Jose Ortiz named yet. This one could drop in odds, based on her run in the Pocahontas at Churchill. She seems to be a "bounce" as well, one good race and then a bad race...the Fairgrounds Oaks, her last, was the bad race...so....

Two horses are on the "also eligible list". Dunbar Road (who was listed at 5-1 odds) and Code of Honor (30-1)

I remain solidly behind BELLAFINA as my top choice, I'll back her up with Champagne Anyone. Liora, Out For A Spin, Lady Apple and Dunbar Road (if she gets in) Jaywalk is one of those "mystery" horses, she ran so well at the Breeders Cup at Churchill last November but since then has gone 0-2 as a three year old. I suspect she'll figure in there in some of my handicapping, but...it's buyer beware on her. 


paulie
xxxxx