CHURCHILL DOWNS -- KENTUCKY OAKS PICKS -- THURSDAY RESULTS/FRIDAY PICKS -- HANDICAPPING HEROES

"Thurby"...as it's known as now...was a very successful Thursday for Paulie. Despite a couple of scratches and a horrible bumping in Race 10 which DID NOT draw an objection or inquiry.(which is ludicrous and unexcusable) that knocked my pick almost onto the turf course...I still managed NINE WINNERS ON THE 11 RACE PROGRAM.!!!

Tired of throwing tickets on the ground? Want to go to the window and get cash? Just read here and learn. We give it to you free of charge. Can't offer anymore than that. Yes, there were a lot of "chalks" and low odds horses on the card Thursday...with the exception of the final two races...but a popular saying here from Scott Harris is that 'we can pick the winners...but we can't pick what they pay'.

When the longshots look to have a chance, we include them. Some days they're hard to argue for.

I'm pleased to be joined by Scott Harris for the Oaks/Friday picks today.  Despite his incredibly busy week at Churchill this week, he's taking time to join me today and we salute him!

FRIDAY/OAKS Selections:

RACE 1 -- MILE AND A SIXTEENTH  OPTIONAL CLAIMING 100,000

SCOTT 

 6 - GO GOOGLE YOURSELF
4 - SHE'S PRETTY LUCKY
1 - FIRST ALTERNATE
5 - AMERICA'S TALE

PAULIE

6 - GO GOOGLE YOURSELF
4 - SHE'S PRETTY LUCKY
1 - FIRST ALTERNATE
5 - AMERICA'S TALE 

Analysis: Scott and Paulie are in agreement here. Corey Lanerie and Paul McGee look to have a legitimate threat here in the #6. #4 adds blinkers today which may help. #1 has been consistent with five place finishes and a win the last six times out. #5 drops in class and should find these easier. 

******RACE RESULTS******

4-1-6




RACE 2 -- MILE (TURF) MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 66,000

SCOTT

7 - DABINETT
3 - TACTICAL AFFAIR
9 - PACHINKO
2 - WILD N READYRQ

PAULIE

2 - WILD N READY
4 - KILLAY
7 - DABINETT
6 - FIRST KISS

Analysis:  #7 ran well in debut at Keeneland has has top flight trainer and rider. #2 making third start off layoff and excellent turf jockey in Leparoux. #4 comes in from Great Britain where she was never worse than third in five tries. #3 showed some close at Aqueduct and should get better in her second time out. 

****** RACE RESULTS******

4-13-2


RACE 3 -- 6 FURLONGS MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 66,000

SCOTT

6 - KEROS
8 - BUGLE NOTES
1 - INDUSTRIALIST
3 - QUENIENNY

PAULIE

1 - INDUSTRIALIST
3 - QUENIENNY
6 - KEROS
7 - CUMMINGS

Analysis:  #6 ran well first time out at Turfway and has had three bullet works as well. #1 has caught mud and slop last two out and done well. could be sharp on fast track. #3 has been working well for debut. #8 another first timer for Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez. So is #7 but for Jimmy DiVito and Chris Landeros. Nice works at Churchill from both.

******RACE RESULTS******

8-4-5


RACE 4 -- ONE MILE AND SIXTEENTH (TURF) OPTIONAL CLAIMING 62000

SCOTT

1 - KEEP QUIET
11 - KRAMPUS
6 - COMPASS ZONE
12 - SAHAM

PAULIE

11 - KRAMPUS
1 - KEEP QUIET
5 - THATCHER STREET
8 - GALTON

Analysis:  #11 in the money 5 out of 6 lifetime and beat the #1 last out at Keeneland. They ran behind Mr Cub who won big on Thursday. #5 is a veteran competitor who has been in the money in 8 out of 10 races at Churchill. #6 Won at Keeneland last time out #8 likes Churchill too.


******RACE RESULTS******

8-12-6 

RACE 5 -- 7 FURLONGS --THE EIGHT BELLES STAKES $200000

SCOTT

3 - MIA MISCHIEF
6 - GAS STATION SUSHI
1 - AMY'S CHALLENGE
7 - HOLD HER TIGHT

PAULIE 

6 - GAS STATION SUSHI
3 - MIA MISCHIEF
1 - AMY'S CHALLENGE
4 - SALT BAE

Analysis:  The handicappers are pretty similar here with their picks. #3 has big wins at Oaklawn and Churchill. Either first or seccond all six lifetime races. #6 has destroyed all foes in two lifetime races including Keeneland. #1 will show early speed, can she hang on at the end? #4 another that will try and make the lead and hold them off. Gets Javier Castellano today which is huge. 

******RACE RESULTS******

3-5-6


RACE 6 -- ONE AND ONE SIXTEENTH MILES -- LA TROIENNE STAKES - 350000

SCOTT

3 - ABEL TASMAN
8 - MARTINI GLASS
4 - IVY BELL
6 - TIGER MOTH

PAULIE

3 - ABEL TASMAN
1 - SALTY
8 - MARTINI GLASS
5 - APOLOGYNOTACCEPTED

Analysis: We both agree, you have to beat the #3. she'll be flying at the end. #1 another closer who should like the long Churchill stretch. #8 will set off the pace and pounce on the turn. #5 will look to get the lead and go wire-to-wire on top. #6 another deep closer. 


******RACE RESULTS******

1-2-8


RACE 7 -- FIVE FURLONGS TWIN SPIRES TURF SPRINT (TURF) $200000

SCOTT

9 - BUCCHERO
10 - WILL CALL
7 - VISION PERFECT
1 - DELECTATION

PAULIE

9 - BUCCHERO
2 - FLASHAWAY
8 - FRISKY MAGICIAN
10 - WILL CALL 

Analysis:  Both Scott and Paulie see #9 as the one to beat. Third start of the year and going shorter. look out. After that, #10 ran well at Fairgrounds, didn't like Keeneland but got bumped. #2 will close and could catch tired sprinters. #7 looked great at Gulfstream tries tougher foes today.#1 an English invader who probably needed the Keeneland start. Be wary. Another closer. 

******RACE RESULTS******

10-6-9

RACE 8 -- ONE AND ONE SIXTEENTH MILES THE ALYSHEBA GR II $400000

SCOTT 

1 - GOOD SAMARITAN
3 - ALWAYS DREAMING
5 - HOPPERTUNITY
4 - BACKYARD HEAVEN

PAULIE 

3 - ALWAYS DREAMING
4 - BACKYARD HEAVEN 
1 - GOOD SAMARITIAN
5 - HOPPERTUNITY

Analysis:  #3 won the Kentucky Derby last year and had a nice 2018 tightener at Gulfstream. #1 won his 2018 debut and has some very nice stakes efforts. A closer. #8 was scratched.. #5 another that will contest it early and has won over $4 million in his career. Baffert retains Prat for the ride. #4 will fire in the stretch and will try to find enough


******RACE RESULTS******

4-7-1


RACE 9 -- SEVEN FURLONGS OPTIONAL CLAIMING 75000

SCOTT

6 - DEVINE MISCHIEF
2 - ELECTRIC FOREST
10 - SWORN SILENCE
9 - ENRAGE

PAULIE

2 - ELECTRIC FOREST
4 - UPSET BREWING
6 - DEVINE MISCHIEF
5 - MAHO BAY

Analysis: A wide open affair! #6 loved the Fairgrounds and barely missed the win at Keeneland. Get Joel Rosario to ride. #2 quite impressive in maiden voyage at Keeneland. #10 has won at Churchill and probably needed last at Oaklawn. #4 is 2 times in the money at Churchill and should get paid again today.



******RACE RESULTS ******

6-8-4


RACE 10 -- MILE AND SIXTEENTH (TURF) THE EDGEWOOD GRADE III $200000

SCOTT

11 - RUSHING FALL
6 - DADDY IS A LEGEND
3 - ALTEA
2 - BEYOND BLAME

PAULIE

11 - RUSHING FALL
6 - DADDY IS A LEGEND
7 - TOINETTE
4 - FIGARELLA'S QUEEN

Analysis:  We both love #11 here but odds will be short. 4 for 4 lifetime and Castellano returns for Chad Brown. Maybe best bet of day? #6 has chased #11 home twice and will probably do the same today. #2, #3, #4 and #7 all hoping to get place or show money? #3 from France and had a nice debut at Tampa Bay. #7 has won last two times out and #2 has two wins and two places in four lifetime starts. All at Fairgrounds. 

******RACE RESULTS******

7-11-6


RACE 11 -- ONE MILE AND EIGHTH -- THE KENTUCKY OAKS $1000000 

SCOTT

14 - MONOMOY GIRL
13 - ESKIMO KISSES
10 - MIDNIGHT BISOU
5 - WONDER GADOT 
(USE #7 RAYYA IF ANY SCRATCHES)

PAULIE

10 - MIDNIGHT BISOU
14 - MONOMOY GIRL
11 - MY MISS LILLY
9 - TAKE CHARGE PAULA
(USE #2 COACH ROCKS IF ANY SCRATCHES)

Analysis:  Monomoy Girl or Midnight Bisou? #10 a west coast invader with three straight wins, Mike Smith and came to Kentucky for a win, not the juleps. #14 huge at Keeneland and Churchill in previous and has beat most of these one time or another. #13 will try but maybe second or third at best if one of the favorites fails. #11 really improved in New York, might swoop by them if track is sloppy. #2 is ex-Coach Pitino owned and has won last two in Florida. Not today...Rick. 


******RACE RESULTS******

14-5-10


RACE 12 -- ONE AND ONE SIXTEENTH MILES OPTIONAL CLAIMING $71000

SCOTT

 10 - GIO GAME
8 - OX EYED DAISY
4 - NUCLA
6 - SHE'S A JULIE

PAULIE

10 - GIO GAME
4 - NUCLA
8 - OX EYED DAISY
9 - BANASHEE BIRDIE

Analysis:  #10 looks the best and has just missed twice in this kind of company. #8 very impressive in last win at Gulfstream. #4 likes the sloppy track. Consider if weather goes bad. #9 quite the win at Oaklawn, will be flying at end. 


******RACE RESULTS******

10-6-5



RACE 13 -- 1 MILE MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT $66000

SCOTT

2 - RIZZOLI
6 - TEQUILA SUNRISE
9 - HANALEI MOON
1 - JAN ONE

PAULIE

2 - RIZZOLI
3 - ACTRESS ON BOARD
6 - TEQUILA SUNRISE
7 - AGENT PROVOCATEUR

Analysis:  #2 impressive in earlier sprints might need the extra distance today. #6 just missing a win in six lifetime starts. Comes in second a lot on west coast, Rosario stays on. #3 another with "seconditis" will jockey change to Luiz Saez help? #9 showed very little only time out but barn and breeding suggest she'll get better second time around. #7 has two second place finishes last two times. Time to graduate? "The kid" Adam Beschizza climbs on board.

******RACE RESULTS******

10-6-5


GOOD LUCK TO ALL TODAY AND CHECK BACK TOMORROW AS WE DO IT AGAIN WITH THE DERBY DAY CARD AND DERBY RACE! PAULIE WILL YIELD HIS SPOT TO NOTED HANDICAPPER J. FRED MUGGS TOMORROW.

paulie
xxxxx