ELLIS PARK PICKS -- 7/16/22

A hot summer day in Henderson, KY for racing at Ellis Park. And tough-to-handicap, competitive fields, as well.in the "pea patch".  As I've tried to do, I stick with the Kentuckt tracks -- the racing is undoubtedly better at Saratoga today, but I'm not as comfortable handicapping the New York Jockey colony or trainers -- muxh less the horses. So, it's off to Ellis I go: 

RACE 6

10 -- LAVISH HABITS

6 -- AMARI'S IMAGE

7 -- FANCY MARTINI

2 -- MAMA RINA

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 8 -- LADY ARSINOE)

RACE 7 

2 -- LEGIONNAIRE

3 -- WHAT'S UP DOC

6 -- UNCLE BERLEY

9 -- KINGFISHER

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 8 -- BLOW TORCH)

RACE 8 

6 -- CURRENT

8 -- BAMA BREEZE

5 -- NEXT

2 -- INTRADAY

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 7 -- ATTORNEY TIM)

RACE 9 

1 -- STELLA TERESA

3 -- RATHER BE LUCKY

5 -- TWENTYTWENTYHOAX

10 -- GET BY

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 6 -- BALI GOWN)

Good luck today and I'll try to get back to the site and make any changes, if necessary. 

paulie 

ELLIS PARK PICKS 7/9/22

 The Kentucky horse racing circuit goes to Ellis Park for a couple of months now. It's not the greatest racing in the nation and the jockey colony isn't nearly as strong as it was at Keeneland or Churchill Downs, but the cards are full, they have turf racing and it's interesting handicapping. 

The exotics could pay a bunch today in this opening weekend. Since the best race of the day is arguably the fifth race, I've handicapped the final five races on the card. 

RACE 5 

1 -- SPEEDOMETER

3 -- DIVINE CHARGER

2 -- LITTLE MAMBO

4 -- BLAZING SUMMER

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 6-- MYSTIQUE SABOTEUR)

RACE 6

3 -- STAR POSE

10 -- SHE HAS THE LOOK

1 -- SICILIAN GRANDMA

4 -- LADY EVELYN CAN

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 9 -- BECKY THATCHER)

RACE 7 

7 -- REWARD NIGHT

10 -- COURAGEOUSLY

4 -- COOL RAGS

6 -- ELEVEN CONTROL

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 1 -- UNINVITED GUEST)

RACE 8 

2 -- QUEENS UP

4 -- REAGAN'S DECISION

9 -- CONSTITUTION LADY

1 -- TACHLIS

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 3 -- CHASING FIREFLIES)

RACE 9 

1 -- SHOGUN WARRIOR

9 -- HE'S AN ANGEL

2 -- OLD HICKORY

3 -- MY BROTHER CAM 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 12 -- FIELD MARSHAL)

Good luck today and play 'em anyway you like ! 

paulie

 

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 7/2/22

 

A VERY NICE card at the ol' Twin Spires today for Stephan Foster Day and five stakes races (6-10), so we'll look at those to play today. 

RACE 6  -- TEPIN STAKES

4 -- WICKED HALO

8 -- PATNA  scratched

1 -- HEARTY CONSTITUTION

6 -- RUNAWAY WIFE   scratched

4 -- WICKED HALO

3 -- VERYLITTLECENTS

RACE 7   -- AMERICAN DERBY STAKES

9 -- RATTLE N ROLL

4 -- KITODAN

7 -- RED RUN

 10 -- WAR CAMPAIGN scratched

5 -- MCLAREN VALE

RACE 8  -- FLUER DE LIS STAKES

5 -- SHEDARESTHEDEVIL

1 -- SUPER QUICK

4 -- PAULINE'S PEARL

3 -- AVA'S GRACE

RACE 9  -- KELLY'S LANDING STAKES

5 -- BANGO

4 -- ALOHA WEST

9 -- MILES AHEAD

3 -- KNEEDEEPINSNOW

RACE 10 -- STEPHEN FOSTER STAKES

6 -- MANDALOUN

5 -- PROXY

3 -- OLYMPIAD

2 -- AMERICAN REVOLUTION

Enjoy your 4th of July weekend, good luck today, PLAY EM ANYWAY YOU LIKE, and stay cool !!

paulie

 

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 6/18/22

Night racing tonight at the Twin Spires, which is probably a good thing, given the excessive heat we've had lately that cancelled Wednesday and Thursday Racing.  

Average fields tonight in the final four races --  but pretty evenly matched == so it could be a "big price" night. 

Here's what I got in Races 8-11. 

RACE 8

6 -- CONSPIRACY FACT 

3 -- WARRIOR JOHNY

1 -- CURLIN'S MALIBU

5 -- ACTIVE DUTY

RACE 9 

5 -- LORD DRAGON

9 -- PALACE COUP

1 -- CHANTRY FLATS

4 -- FROSTED GRACE

RACE 10 

9 -- TARABI

7 -- FAMED

2 -- ONTHEONESAND TWOS

4 -- CANCEL THIS

RACE 11 

10 -- LADY PELE

6 -- REPEALING

7 -- CLASSIC COYNE

6 -- ROYAL FLOWER

I'll keep an "eye out" for scratches and update as a can, 

JUST A NOTE FOR NEXT WEEK (6/25/22):

There will be no Paulie Picks next Saturday. My schedule has me busy all day. I hope to return to posting Paulie's Picks on July 2nd (7/2/22)

Good luck today,

paulie

PROFIT/LOSS -- CHURCHILL PICKS 6/12/22

 

I didn't do as well on the Belmont wagering and picks as I hoped. Out of the 16 horses I put out there to consider, I had three winners, three seconds and two thirds. That's a 50% "in the money" percentage. The big downfall was Race 10, where Tribhuvan (at 19-1) won . I had him as my "if scratches occur" pick -- which mens, basically, I thought he was the fifth best horse in the race. No one scratched in the race, though, so I didn't use him in any exotics or vertical wagers. I figured he's try to set the pace, but didn't think he could maintain it the entire race. Channel Maker, who I expected to go with him, stumbled out of the gate and didn't. 

Such is the life of wagering. 

I looked at my last 30 days of wagering, and found these results:

-- 45 wagers

-- 42.5 win % on wagers

--  $1516 wagered 

--  $3077 payoff

-- $1561 profit

Onward, and upward.

Here's what I like at Churchill today: 

--   Race 2:   I'll play #2 WICKED HALO to beat #5 PRETTY BIRDIE.  Straight out $50 win bet

-    Let's also try an early Pick 5 --- it's a .50 cent wager. 

RACE 1 -- 1.3.4.7

RACE 2 -- 2,5

RACE 3 -- 1,2,3,6

RACE 4 -- 5,6,7,9

RACE 5 -- 1.3.5.6

Cost  $128

Good luck!

paulie

BELMONT PICKS -- 6/11/22

 Let's take our Saturday handicapping and wagering to New York today -- to the site of the third jewel of the Triple Crown...Belmont Park and the Belmont Stakes. 

Nine stakes races on the card today up there, I took interest in the four leading to and including the Belmont Stakes. (races 8-11). All four are Grade I races, so, needless to say, these are very good runners at the track today. 

RACE 8 -- JAIPUR STAKES

5 -- ARREST ME RED

4 -- CASA CREED

8 -- SCUTTLEBUZZ

13 -- GREGORIAN CHANT

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 12 -- GEAR JOCKEY)

RACE 9 --   METROPOLITAN HANDICAP 

1 -- FLIGHTLINE

2 -- SPEAKER'S CORNER

4 -- HAPPY SAVER

3 -- ALOHA WEST

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- INFORMATIVE )

RACE 10 -- MANHATTAN STAKES

9 -- SANTIN

10 -- CHANNEL MAKER

2 -- GUFO

8 -- HIGHLAND CHIEF

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 7 -- TRIBHUVAN )

RACE 11 -- BELMONT STAKES

6 -- MO DONEGAL

1 -- WE THE PROPLE

4 -- RICH STRIKE

3 -- NEST

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- CREATIVE MINISTER )

OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 

RACE 3 -- (4) MATAREYA AND (5) EDHO ZULU THE TWO TO BEAT.

RACE 4 -- I'LL TAKE (3) SPEAK OF THE DEVIL OVER (2) REGAL GLORY

RACE 5 -- (5) FIRST CONSTITUTION ALWAYS RUNS WELL AT BELMONT

RACE 6 -- WHO BEATS (1) JACK CHRISTOPHER? 

RACE 7 -- TOUGH... BUT (1) LETRUSKA IS MY PICK. JOSE ORTIZ 7 FOR 8 ON HER

Good luck today!  

paulie

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 6/4/22

 A nice day of racing lined up at Churchill today with (6) stakes races on the 11-race card. 

We'll look at all (6) stakes races, that start on Race 5 (The Regret) and then roll through Races 7-11.  My availability to jump in and update scratches today will be limited....so...

Like last week, I'm listing my top four picks and then an alternative pick, in case there is a scratch. Weather today is rain-free, though, and mid-80's temperatures. Central Avenue will be busy today -- with NCA Regional baseball going on at Jim Patterson Stadium. The Louisville game (vs. Michigan) is at 4 p.m. 

RACE 5 -- REGRET STAKES

3 -- MCKULICK

2 -- BESIDE HERSELF

1 -- WALKATHON

6 -- CANDY RAID

(4 -- KNEESANDHIPS -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

RACE 7 --  SHAWNEE STAKES 

5 -- PAULINE'S PEARL

3 -- AVA'S GRACE

6 -- CRAZY BEAUTIFUL  {scratched)

4  -- ARMY WIFE

(2 -- SHE'S ALL WOLFE -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

RACE 8 -- ARLINGTON STAKES

5 -- FIELD PASS

1 -- ADMISSIONS OFFICE

4 -- GET SMOKIN

6 -- GRAY'S FABLE

(2 -- FLORIFORM -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

RACE 9 -- ARISTIDES STAKES

5 -- BOB'S EDGE

6 -- TOP GUNNER

8 -- LONG RANGE TODDY

2 -- MILES AHEAD

( 4 -- NECKER ISLAND -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR) 

RACE 10 -- BLAME STAKES

6 -- SCALDING

8 -- AMERICAN REVOLUTION

3 -- TITLE READY (scratched)

1 -- PROXY

5 -- DYNAMIC ONE -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

RACE 11 -- AUDUBON STAKES

8 -- SUMMER ANTHEM

2  -- GRAND SONATA

7 -- SMOKIN T

11 -- MAJOR GENERAL

( 6 -- RED RUN -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR) 

Bet 'em any way you like and GOOD LUCK today !!

paulie