Sunday Churchill Results 5/30/20

An interesting day at the twin Spires on Sunday. I outlined my top four choices in the final six races at Churchill, a total of 24 picks. 

Out of those, I had three winners, four seconds and four thirds. That's a 46% "in the money" number. Out of 18 possible payout possibilities, I had 61% of them. 

Winners were: 

Paris Lights (Race 5) 
Whoville (Race 6)
Royal Flag (Race 9) 

Unfortunately, the Pick 3's I tried did not hit. Connection almost got there in race 7, finishing second in a Pick 3 that paid $73 on the .50 cent wager. 

The Pick 5 paid $3590 on a .50 cent wager. The Pick 6 was a payout of $20,563. 

If you had put a $2 WPS on all of my 24 picks, your cost would have been $144. You would received a payout of $94. I know, that's not great, but, in the words of the late Scott Harris..."we can pick the horses, but we can't pick how much we'll get back." 

Pick 6 winning numbers:  

3-10-7-1-2-5

We'll give it a go Saturday. A huge card at Belmont and a nice card at Churchill. I try to stay "local" when I can when handicapping, but, I may make an exception and present Belmont picks Saturday. I haven't decided yet. I'm still showing a profit at Churchill and overall at all tracks with my selections since I re-assumed posting my picks back on Feb 15th.....so let's keep playing with "their" money, right? 


Stay safe

paulie
xxxxx

Selections for Churchill Downs 5-31-20

I spent a little time trying to see if a Pick 6 wager would be feasible but when I got to the $300 mark, I canned the notion.  

Sunday's Card is a tough one, I'll try a couple of Pick 3's and leave it at that. $32 wagers. 

Good luck and bet 'em anyway you like. I've listed my top four in each of the last six races. 



RACE 5 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- 79K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

3 -- PARIS LIGHTS
6 -- NEW HOPE ROAD
9 -- JEWELED PRINCESS
8 -- GLAMOUR GIRL 



RACE 6 -- MAIDEN CLAIMING -- 20K -- SIX FURLONGS

6 -- CAVATICA
8 -- AZLYNN'S DREAMER 
11 -- EVERY SINGLE DAY
10 -- WHOVILLE


RACE 7 -- CLAIMING -- 20K -- SIX FURLONGS

8 -- COLD SMOKE
9 -- REELFOOT
11 -- NASHVEGAS
10 -- CONNECTION


RACE 8 -- ALLOWANCE -- 81K -- 1-1/8TH MILE (TURF) 

3 -- ELLA BRILLA
2 -- WITEZ
7 -- SECURE CONNECTION
9 -- QUEEN BRIDGET


RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- 83K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

2 -- ROYAL FLAG
4 -- MORE ROSES
7 -- SARACOSA
5 -- RAZEENA


RACE 10 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- 79K -- 1-18TH MILE (TURF) 

4 -- WIND D' ORO
1 -- FREEDOM FLIGHT
12 -- CLEVELAND SIMPSON
2 -- OPUS NORTH


paulie
xxxxx

Churchill Downs Results 5-30-20

A day of pretty huge prices Saturday in the final five races at Churchill Downs. I gave it "that old college try" in the picks and did have some successes. Unfortunately, I didn't capture the late pick 5 and my hat goes off to anyone who did. It paid $131,963 on the .50 cent wager. I tried it, using my top two picks in each of the five races and had just one winner and four second place finishes out of those -- in a $16 wager. 

Out of 22 picks that I offered, I had three winners, three seconds and two shows. That's a 36% "in the money" ratio. There were 15 payable slots in the five races and I filled 53% of them. 

Race 7 started the madness with #4 Bell's the One hitting the wire first at 13-1 and paying $28.20 to win. I ran second and third with my four picks. 

Race 8 produced another long-shot in #6 What A Country who broke from the gate at 17-1 and returned $36.80 to investors. I had the second place finisher in my four choices. 

Race 9 knocked the train off the tracks even further with 25-1 odds on Whimsical Muse.  I gave you five choices, picked up a second (at a nice price with Even Beat) and lost another "in the money" finisher when Hidden Facts had multiple claims of foul placed on him and Javier Castellano and disqualified from second. It was the right move. 

Race 10 belonged to Fearless and he looked very good at winning at 1-1 odds. I covered the top three finishers in my four picks. 

Race 11 was a nice score for my selections. 25-1 Secret Message upset the rest, and I had him. He returned $53.40. 

I did a calculation on putting a $2 WPS bet on all 22 of the runners I picked. The cost would have been $132. You would have gotten back $163, so maybe that would have been the way to go yesterday. 

It's was a Johnny Velasquez "late double" as well, as he won the 10th and 11th races. 

There's a pretty huge Pick 6 carry-over for Sunday's races. It might be worth a small investment. I'll have some ideas on it in a column later today here at the site. 


paulie
xxxxx

Churchill Downs Selections 5/30/20

A nice card today at Churchill beginning with Race 7 -- a Grade III sprint race. I've looked at races 7-11, which coincides with the late Pick 5 and handicapped who I like. As I like to say, play 'em anyway you like. I haven't decided how I'll go after it yet. Below are my top four picks for each race. 


RACE 7 -- WINNING COLORS STAKES -- GRADE III -- $100K -- SIX FURLONGS

8 -- MIA MISCHIEF
3 -- PRINCESS CAUSEWAY
2 -- BREAK EVEN
6 -- TAKE CHARGE ANGEL


RACE 8 -- MAIDEN 79K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

7 -- BEAR ALLEY
9 -- ASHIHAM
3 -- MAU MAU
1 -- AZTEC EMPIRE


RACE 9 -- OPT. CLAIMING 62K -- FIVE FURLONGS (TURF) 

11 -- DIXIE IN CANDYLAND
8 -- CARDAMON
6 -- BINGWA
13 -- HIDDEN FACTS 
(ALSO CONSIDER #12 EVEN BEAT) 


RACE 10 -- OPT. CLAIMING 62K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

8 -- TOP SEED
7 -- FEARLESS
9 -- FULL OF RUN
10 -- GUN IT


RACE 11 -- MINT JULEP HANDICAP -- GRADE III -- 100K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF) 

1 -- JULIET FOXTROT
6 -- NAY LADY NAY
13 -- ELIZABETH WAY
2 -- BEAU RECALL
(ALSO CONSIDER #7 SECRET MESSAGE) 


Good luck today on a challenging card! 


paulie
xxxxx 

Churchill Downs Results 5-23-20

A great day yesterday for handicapping at Churchill for the last five races. I outlined a All-Stakes Pick 5 for you yesterday and it cost $72. It "hit" and returned $414 on the .50 cent version. 

Four out of the top five picks I gave you won and my second pick in Race 11 came in first, so, however you played the picks, you had some success. The Pick 4 returned $237 on a $18 investment and I was happy to see that also.  

I listed 26 horses to watch in the five race sequence, and, out of those, we had five winners, two seconds and four thirds. That's a 42% "in the money" average. Out of the 15 possible "paying" slots, we had a even better  73% success rate, 

Race 7 went to odds on favorite Dunbar Road. A payout of $3.40 to win

Race 8 was taken by Sharing and a win price of $6.60 for that one

Race 9 saw Owendale hit the wire first for a $9.00 win payout. I saw Owendale as my "best bet" of the sequence, was surprised I got 7/2 odds on him and "unbuckled". across the board. $5.20 to place and $4.00 to show was nice and unexpected. A $6 "across the board" investment brought back $18.20. 

Race 10 produced Maxfield handling the field. $4.60 to win. Watch him in the Belmont Stakes if they send him !  I correctly picked the trifecta, a small return of only $20.90 on the .50 cent wager. 

Race 11 featured Smooth Like Strait nosing out Pixelate for the highest win payout of the sequence at $12.20. I gave you the trifecta here also and it paid $226.85 on a .50 cent wager. 

A $2 win wager on my top picks would have cost you $10 and you would have got back $23.60. Only Hieronymous disappointed --  in Race 11. -- finishing fourth. 

I'll gladly take my self created "stimulus check" profit I handicapped on yesterday'd card and we'll try it again next Saturday. If you're trying today's card, remember it rained pretty hard last night during the final race and after it, so check those track conditions before you invest. I'm going to "take the day off" and enjoy the rest of Memorial Day weekend. I'm way ahead on Churchill in profit margin so far in the early part of this meet and plan on adding to it when we meet again on May 30th. . 


--paulie 

Churchill Downs Picks -- All Stakes Pick 5 -- 5/23/20

What a super Saturday for racing (and handicapping) today at Churchill Downs ! The whole cards looks really competitive and let's hop things remain "fast" and "firm" for track conditions. 

I'm looking at the All-Stakes Pick 5 today (races 7-11) and full fields and talented horses are aplenty in these races. I'm listing my top four below in each race -- and THEN LISTING BELOW THEM who to insert after them, if there are scratches or if you want to go deep in a "leg" of the sequence. 


RACE 7 -- SHAWNEE STAKES -- 100K -- 1-1/16TH MILE


4 -- DUNBAR ROAD
8 -- SHE'S A JULIE
5 -- ANOTHER BROAD
1 -- MOONLIT GARDEN 

-----

(6) -- VAULT



RACE 8 -- TEPIN STAKES -- 100K -- 1 MILE (TURF) 


9 -- SHARING
10 -- PASS THE PLATE
7 -- OUTBURST
5 -- HENDY WOODS  (scr)

-----

(14) -- ALMS
(15) -- EVE OF WAR


RACE 9 -- BLAME STAKES -- 100K -- 1 MILE


8 -- OWENDALE
9 -- EXTRODINARY JERRY
13 -- MR MONEY
3 -- GLOBAL CAMPAIGN

-----

(14) -- DIAMOND KING 


RACE 10 -- MATT WINN STAKES -- 150K -- G III -- 1-1/16TH MILE


10 -- MAXFIELD
2 -- PNEUMATIC
6 -- NY TRAFFIC
1 -- MYSTIC GUIDE (scr)


-----

(11) -- ATTACHMENT RATE
(12) -- MAJOR FED



RACE 11 -- WAR CHANT STAKES -- 100K -- 1 MILE (TURF)



6 -- HIERONYMOUS
9 -- SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT
4 -- VANZZY (scr)
13 -- BILLY BATTS


-----

(5) FIELD PASS
(12) -- PIXELATE
(1) SOUTH BEND



Good luck today with the card. Bet 'em anyway you like!  I'm probably going to piece together a small Pick 5 and a couple of Pick 3's -- using Race 9 in each -- but, I'll see how they're running and what the track conditions look like. 

Pick 5 suggestion: 

1,4,8,5 
7,9,10
8,9,13
2,10
6,9 

Cost:  $72


paulie
xxxxx

Churchill Downs Results 5/17/20

It was a rough and trying day for handicapping and wagering success at Churchill Downs second day of the Spring/Summer Meet for yours truly until the end of the card. 

I caught a break at the end. We'll get to that. Here's how it went: 

RACES 1&2: 

I tried an opening daily double wager. I took three horses in Race One and five horses in Race Two. A #1 Daily Double that cost $15. I had success, running first and second in Race One with Common Courtesy winning and Orb's Soul coming in second. $4.20 was the winning payout for Common Courtesy. Johnny Velazquez was the winning jockey. In Race Two, Hefty G crossed the line first, one of the five i picked. A payout of $8.80 to win, with Genardo Corrales on board. The Daily Double paid $15.50 on the $1 ticket. 

I'm ahead .50 cents. I guess it's better than losing, right? 

RACE 3

In a wide open affair, I thought I'd try a .50 cent trifecta box with five horses and a cost of $30. That didn't work so well. Just one of my runners "hit the board" -- #3 Deep Sea -- who ran second at a nice price ($15.20 & $10.00) The race went to #11 P.R Radio Star, who paid $11 to win. The trifecta paid $2015.00, with a running order of 11,3,4. David Cohen piloted the winner. 

I'm now down -$29.50 on the day. 

RACE 4

This race was an attempt to hit a simple $1 exacta box with four horses. I got the second place (Flabbergasted) and third place (Luck Money) finishers, but did not have the winner -- #10 Cat's Pajamas. A huge win payout of $57.00 on this horse and a nice exacta payout of $290.10 on the $1 exacta payout. Johnny V with his second win in three races. 

I see my success rate drop to -$41.50 for the day. 

RACES 5,6,7 

My first attempt at a Pick 3 on the day. A .50 cent variety, with four horses in each race, for a total cost of $32. It started out well. 

Dean Martini won the fifth race and I had him in the sequence. He won very easily at 4/5 odds and  Joel Rosario was the winning jockey. Survive and advance ! 

Mississippi took the sixth race. He's been a favoeite of mine for some time and I included him. He went off at 6-1 odds and paid $14.20. A nice, pulling away win for trainer Ron Moquett (a great guy) and "Jockey Joe" Talamo. Two-for-two now in the Pick 3. 

I stumbled in Race 7. Temple City Terror came flying down the stretch to pass them all and get the win. and paid $17.40. A nice stretch move by jockey Joel Rosario, he does those soooo...well, for trainer Brendan Walsh. I ran third, forth, fifth and tenth with my four selections. The .50 cent Pick 3 paid a nice $81.90. To use an old horseplayer's lament..."Why didn't I use that one?" 

I now sit sullenly as a -$73.50 participant for the day. 

RACE 8 

I decided to go back to a $1 exacta box here, with four horses. It was ruined when  #6 Compelling Style won. he knocked off my favorite in the race (Blinkers) and won at 8-1  odds. He paid $18.60 for the win. Tyler Baze was on board for the win and the exacta of 6-7 paid $38.10.

Another "swing and miss" for me and I look at a deficit on the day of $-85.50. It was looking to be "one of those days".  Ar least I didn't go after a Pick 4 and early elimination from it. 

RACES 9,10,11

Time for the final venture of the day for me. A .50 cent Pick 3. I originally look at it as going with four runners in Race 9, three runners in Race 10 and eight runners in Race 11. I changed that. I remebered an old horseplayers axiom: 

" If you're going to use eight horses, why not use them all?" 

The cost was just an additional $24 and I was assured of winning if I could get through the first two legs. It made sense to me so I made the 4x3x12 bet for $72. 

Race 9 belonged to me. I finished first, second and third. The winner, #10 Art Collector, went off at 7-1 odds and got a well-timed ride from  Brian Hernandez, Jr to hold off second place finisher Toledo by about two lengths. I really needed the next race...

Race 10 !  Ues, Race 10 !!  One of my three choices -- #11 Chimney Rock -- laid off the early pace and pulled off the "head bob" at the wire. A magnificent ride from Jose Ortiz, to finally catch and pass (in the final jump) big long-shot  #Jack and Noah. I didn't have Jack and Noah and sweated out the photo finish. A nice payout of $13.80, too -- as odds-on favorite Four Wheel Drive broke slowly, poorly and never was a factor. 

I had the Pick 3 with the "all" button in Race 11. The only question was who would win and how much would the sequence pay. 

A big surprise when #6 Prince Jersey Town finished first. Honestly, I went back over the racing form after the race and couldn't have ever picked him. He wasn't even in my original eight for the race. He had been recently gelded, and horses sometimes run well after that event. His past perfomances were pitiful, but journeyman jockey John McKee got him there by a nose over #3 Toshio...who I had really liked in my first handicapping analysis. An exciting, close battle between those two in the stretch. 

Prince Jersey Town went off at a huge price of 24-1 and paid $49.20 to win.

The .50 cent Pick Three returned $758.25 with the numbers 10-11-6. 

I went from a $-85.00 hole to a profit of $ +673.00  for the day. Color me happy.  

That, my friends, is horse racing. You jut never know. Photo finishes, odds-on favorites losing and the sudden turn of fortunes. I got lucky at the end. I'll accept the luck after a day of mot having much of it.  This may sound cliche, but "don't give up, don't ever give up." 

I'll see you Saturday.


paulie
xxxxx