SARATOGA SELECTIONS -- 7/31/21

A nice final four races at Saratoga today to finish the day with three stakes races and a competitive claiming affair. 

RACE 8 -- VANDERBILT STAKES -- $350K -- SIX FURLONGS

2 -- MISCHEVIOUS ALEX

3 -- FIRENZE FIRE 

6 -- WHITMORE

9 -- SPECIAL RESERVE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 7 -- MILES AHEAD) 

RACE 9 -- JIM DANDY STAKES -- $600K -- 1-1/8TH MILE

5 -- ESSENTIAL QUALITY

3 -- WEYBURN

4 -- KEEP ME IN MIND

6 -- RISK TAKING   scratched

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 2 -- MASQUEPARADE)

RACE 10 -- BOWLING GREEN STAKES -- $250K -- 1-3/8TH MILE

5 -- CHANNEL MAKER

2 --CROSS BOARDER

1 -- CHANNEL CAT 

7 -- MOON OVER MIAMI

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 8 -- SHAMROCKET) 

RACE 11 -- CLAIMING -- $25K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

3 -- MOROCCO

13 -- VILLIANOUS  scratched

10 -- SHARP PROSPECT

6 -- BIRD'S EYE VIEW

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 7 -- TIZARUNNER)

Best of luck today to you!

paulie

SARATOGA RESULTS -- 7/24/21

A bit of luck yesterday in handicapping the Late Pick 4 at Saratoga yesterday. The price wasn't what I wanted (are they ever?) but it beat throwing the wager away.

I gave you 16 horses to consider in the four race sequence and, out of those, had four winners, a place and two shows. That's a 44% "in the money" number. I filled seven of the 12 possible "payout" spots for a 58C% success rate. 

Race 8 -- RASTAFARA was my top pick and she got the job done with Irad Ortiz, Jr in the saddle at 5/2 odds. I also had SPLIT THEN DOUBLE come in third for me in the mile turf race.  

Race 9 -- CARAMEL SWIRL looked pretty unbeatable and got the job done for me in the dirt allowance race. Junior Alvadrado had the ride at even money. 

Race 10 -- Another favorite in  CARAVEL in the Caress Stakes. aat een money again -- Irad Ortiz returning to the winner's circle. With the defection of JAKARTA, I still had IN GOOD SPIRITS for second and ROBIN SPARKLES for third. 

Race 11 -- With A BIT O IRISH SASs scratching, my alternate pick MIKE'S GIRL got in my wager sequence and took the turf allowance at 8-1 odds. THe other ortiz (Jose) got the "W". 

A disappointing $109.50 return on the late Pick 4. 

We'll give it a go next week and probably stay "at the Spa" with my picks. As I've often said here -- I can pick the winners, I just can't pick what I'll get paid. 

paulie

SARATOGA SELECTIONS 7/24/21

 Welcome back to Paulie Picks after a week off -- an unforeseen absence due to a medical emergency for ol' Paulie.but we're back at it today. 

We'll chase the Late Pick 4 at Saratoga today -- a nice card that offers three on the turf with a stakes race, two nice allowance affairs and a challenging maiden special weight. .  

RACE 8 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- $100K -- ONE MILE (TURF) 

3 -- RASTAFARA

5 -- MIDNIGHT CHOIR

2 -- BABY BLYTHE

1 -- SPLIT THEN DOUBLE

(IF SCRAATCHES OCCUR -- 9 -- EGO TRIP) 

RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE -- $103K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

6 -- CARAMAL SWIRL

8 -- FLASH MAGIC

9 -- MUCHO MACHO MAMA

2 -- MAKING CENTS 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 4 -- ZAINALARB)

RACE 10 -- CARESS STAKES -- $200K -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) 

2 -- ROBIN SPARKLES

6 -- JAKARTA 

5 -- FLOWER POINT 

1 -- CARAVEL 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 4 -- IN GOOD SPIRITS) 

RACE 11 -- ALLOWANCE -- $90K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF) 

6 -- JUST OK IS NOT OK 

7 -- MY LIPS ARE SEALED

12 -- JAMAICA JOY

13 -- A BIT O' IRISH SASS

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 10 -- MIKE'S GIRL) 

No specific plays today other than that late Pick 4, I'll chase it with my top four picks in Races 8-11 and hope for the best.   

Best of luck!

paulie

ELLIS PARK RESULTS -- 7/10/21

 It was fun to watch them run at Ellis yesterday and I had success in taking down the late Pick 4. There were a bunch of scratches in the sequence, since racing was taken off the turf, (seven horses in all)  but they came close to a couple of track records down there, so the "dirt" was good and the competition tough. 

I had four winner, three places and two show out of the 15 horses I had still running. That was good for a 60% "in the money" number. . I filled nine of the 12 "payable slots" in Races 5-8, for 75% success rate. 

Here how it went: 

RACE 5 -- HE'S PRETTY LUCKY won the stretch duel at 7/2 odds over a hard-trying STONE SLINGER and FUTURO held on for third. I had all three, a nice way to start the day, They ran a mile on the dirt, off the turf, 

RACE 6 -- This one, also, was pulled from the turf. But, a total of four scratches left me with just two runners in the race. Fortunately, SEARING CHASE was one of the runners I had left and he won at 5/2 odds. Only five horses competed. I also had Sir Giannis, who didn't hit the board. 

RACE 7 -- A maiden special weight affair that was contested on the dirt got MANASOTA SUNSET to the wire first. I had him at 5/2 odds, plus HOWBOUTTHEMAPPLES who ran second. Perfectable Lady, who I really liked, did not hit the board, which was almost unbelievable against these. 

RACE 8 -- My top pick SPARKLE OF HOPE prevailed here at 6/5 odds in this turf sprint.. I also had LET THEM EAT CAKE, who ran second. SENTIMENTAL CHASE got the show money, another of my picks, I was disappointed that LEAN IN got scratched, she's a daughter of UNCLE MO and I thought she could do well here. 

The Pick 4 paid $165.35 on the .50 cent wager and I plunked down $64 to capture it, so I'll take the $100+ profit on the day. 

I did consider, albeit briefly, the Belmont card yesterday -- but passed on the late Pick 4 (race 8-11) it had two nice stakes races in it, but ended with a maiden special weight and claimer. I am glad I did, I probably wouldn't have come up with the 11th race winner (Outrageous Bet) at 20-1 odds....if you did, you got rewarded with a Pick 4 that paid $1084  

We'll check out opening weekend at Saratoga next Saturday and maybe scout out Monmouth Race Course as well. They have six nice stakes races in Jersey next Saturday, including the Haskell Invitational --- $1 million on the line there and HOT ROD CHARLIE, MANDALOUN and MIDNIGHT BOURBON are expected contenders. The thing is, I've never had much luck "playing Jersey" over the years, so we'll see...

paulie

ELLIS PARK PICKS -- 7/10/21

 With a few days before Saratoga fires up, I thought I'd take a look at Kentucky's Ellis Park today for the Paulie Picks. A nice card today in Henderson, KY -- with three on the turf and a three maiden affairs and an allowance race in the final four of the day there. It is raining there, so be ready if they pull them from the turf to the dirt and the usual resulting scratches. I'll try to get in an update the picks if that happens. 

A fairly good colony of Churchill jockeys are at Ellis and some notable trainers as well, so let's go down to the Soy Bean patch and pick a few winners! 

PICKS UPDATED -- -3:25 p.m. due to scratches) 

RACE 5 -- MAIDEN CLAIMING -- 10K -- ONE MILE (TURF) moved to dirt)

3 -- FUTURO

4 -- BUBBA CABALLO 

7 -- STONE SINGER

5 -- HE'S PRETTY LUCKY

(IF SCRATCHES -- 6 -- WESTERN PHAROAH) 

RACE 6 -- ALLOWANCE -- 52K -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) (moved to dirt) 

4 -- HURRICANE HILL  scratched

7 -- SEARING CHASE

6 -- PIRATE RICK

1 -- INHALATION  (scratched)

(IF SCRATCHES -- 8 -- TRASHTALKINGYANKEE (scratched) ,  9 -- SIR GIANNIS

RACE 7 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- 52K -- 7 FURLONGS 

3 -- PERFECTIBLE LADY

7 -- U SO MONEY BABY (scratched)

9 -- MANASOTA SUNSET

2 -- HOWBOUTDEMAPPLES

(IF SCRATCHES -- 6 -- FREUDIAN

RACE 8 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- 51K -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) (moved to dirt)

4 -- SPARKLE OF HOPE

1 -- MUSIC APP  (scratched)

7 -- LET THEM EAT CAKE

8 -- LEAN IN  (scratched)

(IF SCRATCHES -- 6 -- ESPERER,  5 -- SENTIMENTAL CROSS

THE PLAY: 

I've had some success with the Pick 4 recently down there over the past couple of days , and. I've approached it by "using speed" -- or the horses that get out quickly. That's been on the dirt a bubch, though, so the turf could prove to be a different monster. I'll go four deep in each of the races (5-8) today and see if I can take it down. 

Scratches could play a big part in it if they pull stuff off the turd, so be ready. 

Best of luck and let's hope it stays dry and the turf suitable to run on...

paulie

BELMONT RESULTS -- 7/3/21

 A  handicapping venture to try the racing at Belmont yesterday turned out to be profitable for me.  Getting the bet up and correct, though, was quite the ordeal. As I usually do, I'll check in shortly after the races start to check my picks against the scratches for the day. To my surprise, I found that eight of my 20 picks had been scratched due to sloppy conditions on the track, and the horses were "main track only" and off the grass. 

So, I refigured the card, basically. and ended up with 16 runners. Out of those I had four winners, three seconds and three thirds. That's a 62.5% "in the money" percentage. I filled 10 of the 12 "payable" spots for 83.3% Let's look at the results: 

RACE 7 -- I had ALCOOLS (9/2) and also second place with STROLLING. I did really like STORM ADVISORY, but he failed to hit the board. Still, Flavian Prat got it done for me to start out the Pick 4 in the right fashion. 

RACE 8 -- WOLFE'S DYNAHOST came through for me at 4-1 odds. SPACE LAUNCH, who I was really high on, was scratched. Track leading jock Irad Ortiz, Jr did the work to get him home and keep me alive in the Pick 4 sequence. 

RACE 9 -- All four of my picks I originally had were scratched in the Perfect Storm Stakes, so I did some scrambling and came up with four replacements. And, I got lucky with TRUTH HURTS (8-1) getting the win. I also had PIEDI BIANDI for second and VELVET CRUSH for third. A nice ride from Luis Saez to get to the wire first. And, keeping me alive in the Pick 4 picks. 

RACE 10 -- A big upset, but one I pointed out could happen yesterday when Ricardo Santana, Jr and MAX PLAYER (11-1) won an impressive stretch duel with MYSTIC GUIDE. I also had third place finisher in HAPPY SAVER in the Suburban. I openly wondered if "MAX" had anything left in him and whether he could "go" with Mystic Guide and Happy Saver. He proved he could, and did. 

The Pick 4 returned $902.75 on the .50 cent version ,more than I expected, and I'll gladly accept it. 

We'll look at it next week and decide where to go. Saratoga will be running, but I'll also consider Ellis and see how that card looks. 

paulie

BELMONT PICKS -- 7/3/21

****************************** (UPDATED 1:30 p.m.)****************************

Happy 4th of July weekend to you ! 

We'll go to New York for the 4th...two good stakes races up there today and a much better card than they are running at Ellis Park this weekend, so we'll give it a go with the New York jockey colony and see what happens. Two on the turf, two on the dirt -- and a wide open optional claiming race and competitive claiming rack to go with the Perfect Sting and Suburban Stakes affairs. 

RACE 7 -- CLAIMING -- $20K -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS 

1 -- CAUSE OF ACTION (scratched)

8 -- STORM ADVISORY

3 -- STROLLING

5 -- ZAEVION   (scratched)

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/OTHER:  4-ALCOOLS)

RACE 8 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- $80K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF) 

7 -- SPACE LAUNCH  (scratched) 

3 -- WOLFE'S DYNAHOST

9 -- RESSTORED ORDER

2 -- MIRA MISSION  (scratched) 

(iF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  4 -- SHAWDYSHAWDYSHAWDY --  IF MOVED TO DIRT:  1A GHAZAALY) 

RACE 9 -- PERFECT STING STAKES -- $100K -- 1 MILE (TURF) 

9 -- VIADERA (scratched)

1 -- HONEY CAKE (scratched) 

3 -- PRINCESS GRACE (scratched)

7 -- MADITA (scratched) 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR: 4 -- PIEDI BIANCHI  - IF MOVED TO DIRT: 8 -- VELVET CRUSH, 5 -- TRUTH HURTS,  2 -- HOGANS HOLIDAY

RACE 10 -- SUBURBAN STAKES -- GII -- $400K -- 1-1/4TH MILE

4 -- MYSTIC GUIDE

6 -- HAPPY SAVER

5 -- MAX PLAYER

2 -- INFORMATIVE 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  1 -- MORETTI) 

The Pick 4 looks hittable today, but you have to wonder what kind of price you can get. VIADERA looks pretty invincible in Race 9 and Race 10 looks like a two-horse race between MYSTIC GUIDE and HAPPY SAVER.  In the Suburban, I do have to wonder if MAX PLAYER is totally washed up or not -- he ran the KY Derby and Preakness, and was a nice winner in the Withers, .so I might include him.

Good luck today! 

paulie