Oaklawn/Rebel Stakes Picks

A lot still up in the air about Derby, but...they are still running Derby prep races, even with no crowds, there is still plenty of internet betting...so let's take a look at what's going on down at Oaklawn today.

The Rebel Stakes will be contested, it's produced Derby winner in the past and the field looks to be pretty competitive. In fact, the Pick 4 sequence that involves the Rebel (Race 10), is quite challenging and there is some money to be made today.

I haven't fully decided on whether I'm going to take the Pick 4 on, or just do two Pick threes, starting with Race 8. As we like to say here, bet 'em anyway you like.


RACE 8 -- ESSEX STAKES -- 350K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

2 -- NIGHT OPS
4 -- BANKIT
6 -- SNAPPER SINCLAIR
7 -- PIONEER SPIRIT

THOUGHTS:  I like the switch of jockeys on #2 Night Ops (from Geroux to Talamo) I like his closing style and he's won his last two on the dirt.  Others to consider are #4 Bankit, #6 Snapper Sinclair and #7 Pioneer Spirit. Not listed about, but a horse i might include is #3 Laughing Fox. He has a win over Night Ops back in May, switches to Castellano on-board and ran in the Rebel and ARkansas Derby last year, SO HE KNOWS THE TRACK. . 


RACE 9 -- AZERI STAKES -- 350k -- 1-1/16TH MILE

1 -- STREET BAND
2 -- MY LADY CURLIN
4 -- LADY APPLE
5 -- SERENGETI EMPRESS

THOUGHTS:  I put #4 Lady Apple a notch above the rest. Two wins in a row over some of these and third in the Kentucky Oaks last year. Of course, the winner of the Kentucky Oaks is in here #5 Serengeti Empress, and she's a "must include" as well even though trainer Tom Amoss has gone to Joe Talamo instead of Flavien Prat on board. Let's toss in #2 My Lady Curlin and #1 Street Band also. They've been running with these and have done OK. Note, if it rains, I might not "bite into Lady Apple"...she bombed in the slop at Saratoga last fall. 

RACE 10 -- REBEL STAKES -- 1 MILLION -- 1-1/16TH MILE

1 -- NADAL
3 -- BASIN
4 -- SILVER PROSPECTOR
5 -- NO PAROLE

THOUGHTS:  I'm putting #4 Silver Prospector on top. He's won at the distance, Won at Oaklawn. Won in the slop. Took the KYJCUP at Churchill in the fall and Santana returns as jockey. He'll have a toigh go of it, though. #1 Nadal or #3 Basin will probably get the money and are perfectly capable of winning. #5 No Parole has won three in a row, moves up in class today but very dangerous, too. To further complicate things, I recommend keeping an eye on #6 Three Techniques. This one got a bad start last time out, looked really good in the two before the last one...but the jockey change to Luis Saez is puzzling. Wide open race. 


RACE 11 -- MDN 87k -- 6 FURLONGS

3 -- LUCKY BETTY
5 -- CYNICAL GIRL
6 -- SACRED UNION
10 -- WEEKEND FUN
12 - TIPSY GAL 

THOUGHTS:  #3 Lucky Betty finished better than some of these in her last at Oaklawn. I'll put her on top, but, must consider others.  #12 Tipsy Gal could surprise from post position #12, which usually isn't a great spot in a six furlongs race-- she does have early speed, though. #6  Sacred Union closed well against these and has had a bullet workout since. #5 Cynical Girl fits the requirements and has finished second in both her lifetime starts. #10 Weekend Fun hasn't run since November, but looks to be the early speed here. Another wide open one 


Good luck today and remember what we say here, never bet the mortgaage on a mudder..

paulie
xxxxx