FairGrounds/Louisiana Derby Picks

Today we look at FairGrounds Race Track and the Derby prep race they feature: The Louisiana Derby. 

The late Pick Four sequence starts in race 9, the final leg is the Louisiana Derby, so we have four nice stakes races to consider: 

(Top pick is in italics) 


RACE 9 -- 1-1/8TH MILE (Dirt) -- The New Orleans Classic -- Gr.II --  400K 

6 -- SILVER DUST
5 -- TENFOLD
3 -- FEARLESS
2 -- SONETEER

Thoughts:

SILVER DUST has won both his races this winter at FairGrounds, two Grade III affairs. With Brian Hernandez on board, he's the pick. He's beaten a few in today's field. TENFOLD switches to John Velaquez today in the saddle for Steve Asmussen. The horse is a veteran performer who ran pretty well here in December (4th by 3/4 lengths) and the additional of Johnny V. can only help. FEARLESS moves over from a huge optional claiming win at Hulfstream, Irad Ortiz, Jr stays on board. He looks to be the early speed here and his 1:42 for 1-1/16th miles last out, in wire to wire fashion cannot be ignored. Trainer Todd Pletcher knows how to place them. SONNETEER returns to the dirt, the surface he likes, and can get the distance. He had a brave try in a Grade I at Belmont and won at Churchill last summer. Second off the layoff, is he ready? 

RACE 10 -- 1-1/16TH MILE (turf) -- Muniz Merorial Classic Stakes -- Gr.II -- 300K 

6 -- INSTILLED REGARD
8 -- CHANNEL MAKER
12 - SYNCHRONY
1 -- DOT MATRIX

Thoughts:

INSTILLED REGARD retains Irad Ortiz, Jr as jockey and ran two great turf races in his last two, a narrow loss to Zulu Alpha and Magic Wand at a Grade I at Gulfstream and a win in a Grade II. He's the top pick. CHANNEL  MAKER has the best turf speed of any in this race, came off the layoff with a steady performance despite traffic at Gulfstream last out. Junior Alvarado returns for Billy Mott. This one ran in the Breeders Cup Turf in the fall, so the distance should be no problem.  SYNCHRONY just missed in the Grade III FairGround last out, I'll use him with Joe Bravo and will also add as a possible FACTOR THIS, who won the race. FACTOR THIS is dangerous and should be included to go deep here.  DOT MATRIX got a nice win at Houston with Florent Geroux on board and has never finished out of the money at Fairgrounds, so I'll make room  for him as well . 

RACE 11 -- 1-1/16TH MILES -- (Dirt) -- Fair Grounds Oaks -- Gr. II -- 400K  

6 -- FINITE
4 -- BONNY SOUTH
3 -- TEMPERS RISING 

Thoughts: 

It's pretty much a one-horse race with FINITE, a wonderful three year old filly the winner in her last two at Fairgrounds and her last five overall. You could "single" here. I'm going to toss in BONNY SOUTH WHO CLOSED IMPRESSIVELY to win at Oaklawn last out and TEMPERS RISING, who ran third and fourth to Finite in her last two but had trip trouble each time. Leparoux rides. 


RACE 12 -- 1-3/16TH MILES -- (Dirt) -- LOUISIANA DERBY -- Gr. I -- $1 MILLION 

10 -- ENFORCEABLE 
1 -- MAJOR FED
3  -- WELLS BAYOU
13 --  SILVER SLATE

Thoughts: 

I've liked Enforceable since the first time I saw him run and they don't have to worry about Mr. Monomoy today, so, he's the pick with Leparoux in the irons.  He'll love the extra two furlongs today.  MAJOR FED has a win and a second at Fairgrounds, including the Grade II Risen Star. Leparoux jumps off but Joel Rosario gets on for Greg Foley. WELLS BAYOU comes over from Fairgrounds where he chased Silver Prospector home for second in the South West. His best could get a score today. SILVER SLATE likes Fairgrounds, he's finished right behind Enforceable two times in a row now and can't be ignored. 


Good luck today and don't toss the mortgage money on a mudder...


paulie
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