She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"
Monday, April 30, 2018
HANDICAPPING HEROES --Kentucky Oaks post positions and odds -- Derby thoughts on a Monday
We are 6 days away from "the fastest two minutes in sports" .The Kentucky Derby. This year's field is strong, it may be the most wide open Derby in years and, as I finalize and research the contenders...there are questions, observations and random thoughts as we await the "pill pull" on both Oaks and Derby.
Today (Monday) beginning at 11 a.m. they'll do the positioning for the Oaks. The Derby pill pull takes places Tuesday. These will be streamed live from www.kentuckyderby.com and positioning is one of the many things that can determine a horse's chances. No one wants the "rail" and there is debate on how far out in the gate a horse can be to have a shot in the race.
Since 1930, the #5 and #10 spot in the gate has produced the most Derby wins with 10 each. #17 has never produced a winner, so, you might remember these numbers. Always Dreaming, last year's winner, came out of the #5 post.
With such a wide open field, it is difficult to narrow it down to 4 or 5 legitimate contenders, I'll give my picks for Oaks on Wednesday here and Derby picks on Thursday. We'll also look at the races each day, beginning on Tuesday, with some plays and possible picks.
KENTUCKY OAKS POST POSITION DRAW AND ODDS
#1 SASSY SIENNA 15-1
#2 COACH ROCKS 12-1
#3 CLASSY ACT 15-1
#4 CHOCOLATE MARTINI 12-1
#5 WONDER GADOT 20-1
#6 KELLY'S HUMOR 30-1
#7 RAYYA 15-1
#8 HEAVENHASMYNIKKI 30-1
#9 TAKE CHARGE PAULA 15-1
#10 MIDNIGHT BISOU 5-2
#11 MY MISS LILLY 10-1
#12 PATRONA MARGARITA 30-1
#13 ESKIMO KISSES 15-1
#14 MONOMOY GIRL 2-1
No horse has ever won the Derby without racing as a three year old since Apollo in 1882...but three huge contenders find themselves looking at the first race as a three-year-old being the Derby.
An angle that sometimes gets too much emphasis is the jockey. As a buddy out at Churchill is fond of reminding me...no jockey has ever finished across the wire first by himself, it's the horse under him. Of course, trainers go with jockeys that they feel give them the best chance...so you might give the jockey/trainer/horse combo a brief look but don't base your picks solely on that angle.
We'll have more the rest of the week, so check back each day!
One teaser, a noted handicapper who had a great Keeneland meet with his prognostications, tells me that they will have to beat MENDELSSOHN this year. Such abuse towards such a classic composer is hardly warranted! Up in arms, Beethoven, Bach and Mozart !! Defend a fellow classical music heavyweight.