She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

Thursday, June 18, 2015

Trout fishing in the Great Smoky Mountains



I go trout fishing in the Great Smokies National Park maybe once or twice a year. It is something I started many years ago (Louisville men's basketball had one national title then)...to give you an idea of when I first started. I had been to Gatlinburg, met a shop-owner who knew people from Louisville that I knew and he invited me to go with him early the next morning. 

He provided the reel, the hip-waders and boots and his wife made sandwiches for us to boot. He taught me the art of casting (think metronome) tying flies and casting philosophies. The first time I caught one ( a 10 inch rainbow we released) and the ensuing struggle had me hooked. 

Charlie, my mentor, is a great guy...has lived in the area his entire life and is now retired. He goes 2-3 times a week, usually with his blue-tick hound (now Bo...he's had several since I've met him) and likes the early-morning streams...

Over the years, we've caught innumerable brook, brown and rainbows. We've hit quite a few streams in and around the Gatlinburg and Great Smokies...mostly hard-to-access, remote areas that we've taken his series of Dodge pickup trucks to. 

As I've gotten older (and as Charlie has also) our mobility isn't what it used to be. Some of the places we used to fish we now find a bit harder to get to. That was never clearer to me that when I lost my balance on a steep decline to a stream and basically slid the final 40 feet or so and ended up in the water. Charlie, always the joker, yelled "Safe!" when I finished my inglorious descent to the water. 

I still use an old but dependable Shakespeare rig and have the same hip-waders and boots that I purchased in the early nineties. Charlie ties his own flies and is always happy to give me a few when we go.

His daughter, Laura Grace, accompanies us from time to time. She is quite the tomboy type and actually played DI softball back in the nineties. She returned to the area and basically took over the shop after she learned the fine art of wood turning and Charlie decided to retire. She makes quite fine bird feeders and bird houses, among other things, that we have proudly displayed in our yard over the years. She also tosses a pretty mean line when on-stream and is the first to buy a round when the day's work is done and it's time to relax. She also tosses a mean round of darts at the Fox and Parrot and "drives all the old men crazy" while keeping a fierce sense of independence and heritage. 

Charlie is also a die-hard UT (Tennessee) fan and his love for Vols athletics also includes the women's side of athletics. He is proud of the autographed Pat Summit pictures he has.

When Mercedes Russell decided to go to Tennessee, one of the first calls I got was from "you know who". It was probably payback from when I called him a couple of years back when Louisville knocked off UT en route to the women's Final Four. 

An early morning, clear and bright....the sun creeping into a narrow valley where a bubbling, rushing stream send cold water over boulders and fallen trees. A small pool of slowly moving water. A careful toss of a fly and then the sudden jerk, spin of line and the wild dance that can occasionally result in the landing and netting of a 12-14 inch, fighting brown or glimmering rainbow. 

I do love it so. 

paulie 


Saturday, June 6, 2015

Belmont edition -- How will it go for Pharoah?



The Belmont Stakes will be run today around 6:50 p.m. and 180 or so seconds later, we'll know if we have the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed pulled off the hat trick back in 1978.

1978. What a year...Do you remember much of 1978? Were you around then? I was still attending the University of Louisville...living off campus and working full time. I was at Churchill to see Affirmed beat Alydar and watched the other two races on TV. Back then, there was no on-line wagering and the only way to get up a bet on the race was to go to a track and do it there. Or, consult a "bookie". 

Fast forward to 2015. Once again, a horse that has won the first two legs of the Triple Crown tries to gather the final jewel. From an odds and probability standpoint, it won't happen. California Chrome, Smarty Jones, Curlin, Big Brown....the names are strewn in the past as failing in the 1 1/2 mile Belmont. 

American Pharoah, so we hear, is a incredible horse. He won the Derby in gritty fashion...holding off Firing Line and passing Dortmund in the stretch. He romped in the slop at the Preakness...Tale of Verve picking up the pieces late to get second but five or so lengths behind. 

Three races in five weeks. American Pharoah is the only one of the eight runners today that has that in his resume. He'll face a field at will come at him from all angles. Horses who ran in the Derby but skipped the Preakness. Fresh shooters who skipped the Derby and Preakness. Horses who run well on the home track...Belmont Race Course.

So...how do we make money today in this race. Our "Pharoah on top and everything else below" strategy in the Preakness paid well in the exacta and trifecta. We'll probably resort to it again...but fully expect the payoff to be less than three weeks ago. Expect to pay $49 on the tri and $7 on the exacta. I might even try a small superfecta with the four mentioned above and Tale of Verve. Not sure what that'll run me just yet. 

We'll also try a exacta box with American Pharoah, Materiality, Frosted and Keen Ice. That's only $12 on a $1 wager. We might even try that on a $1 trifecta. $24 dollars rendered there. 

We'll also try to make some hay on the undercard leading up to the Belmont Stakes. There are nine other stakes races today and straight bets, exacta, trifectas and Pick 3's and 4's could return whopping profits. 

Here are some other horses I like on the Belmont card. Good luck and remember to wager responsibly if you choose to do so: 

RACE 1

Stanford is running. He was a scratch for the Kentucky Derby. He was one of my four choices back then. He may not pay much today but I love him in this position and he'll be a single if I start a PK 3 here. 

RACE 3

Competitive Edge is another potential single. I may include Ready For Rye and Cinco Charlie in any exotics...but they'll probably be chasing Competitive Edge to the wire. 

RACE 5

He's unstoppable....unbeatable....unpassable...UNTAPABLE and he's my Best Bet Of The Day. I'll use him to start a PK 3 and across the board. 

RACE 6 

This is a toughie indeed. I like Red Rifle (named after Cincy Bengals/Texas Tech QB Andy Dalton) but would not be surprised if CALL ME GEORGE, SKY KINGDOM, MICROMANAGE or VE DAY win here. I'll use them all in the PK3 and in any other exotics I attempt. 

RACE 7

CONDO COMMANDO and CURLINA are the two I love here. I'll also toss in PROMISE ME and WONDER GAL in the exotics. 

RACE 8 

The start of the PK 4 and if SANDIVA runs like he has in the past at Belmont...they're not gonna get him. If he doesn't, I'll have BALL DANCING, DISCREET MARQ and COFFEE CLIQUE as back ups. 

RACE 9

TONALIST is a monster and his freshener got him ready for today's race. I also have loved BAYERN since I first saw him run a few years back and will toss in WICKED STRONG and PRIVATE ZONE in the PK 4. 

RACE 10

Another tough one to seperate on. I'm going deep with BIG BLUE KITTEN, TWLIGHT ECLISPCE, HYPER and FINNEGAN'S WAKE...hoping I'm still alive in the PK4

RACE 11 - The BEMNONT Stakes

AMERICAN PHAROAH to complete the PK 4 and tossing in FROSTED. 

Good luck! 

Saturday, May 30, 2015

The end of Mad Men


The good TV shows...they eventually end. Some hit the rerun circuits. I still delight in watch old Seinfeld shows...the genius of Larry David and the wacky, unpredictable plots the cast would get involved in each week. Did I have a favorite Seinfeld actor? It probably would fall on Kramer. In real life, Michael Richards turned out to be a jerk...but on Seinfeld he was classic.

I know guys like Kramer. That's the beauty of it.

I remember when the sci-fi Lost In Space got cancelled when I was a boy. I was heartbroken. The robot, Dr. Smith...Will and Bloop the Chimp. Judy Robinson and the crush I had on her.

Throughout the years, other great show have come and gone. Star Trek, M*A*S*H. Laugh In and The Carol Burnett Show. The Dean Martin Celebrity Roasts. Mary Hartman, Mary Hartman and Dick Clark's American Bandstand. Name your own...I could fill up a few more paragraphs with shows I liked that demised.

Now, MAD MEN is gone and I am sad that it is. It was an era that my Dad was a part of. I wasn't old enough to understand the things going on back in the show's time line for the most part...but I remember watching the astronaunts landing on the moon with my parents in our big Admiral TV in the den.

I remember when JFK was assassinated. I was in the second grade and they dismissed us from school early. I walked to school in those days and when I walked into the house, my mom was sitting in front of the TV crying. Another good Catholic boy gone.

I worked for a few years with a guy who was a part of that crazy, corporate world of the 60's. The three-martini lunches...drinking in the office and taking a nap on the couch, smoking everywhere and office flings and romances...he had been a part of them all as a advertising executive in Chicago. Divorced twice, three kids, pack of smokes a day and drove a Mustang convertible. A friendly, opinionated and brash loser...who ended up getting fired from his job for copulating with an account manager's wife in his office and getting "walked in" on. I have no idea what happened to him after that.

Mad Men was a look at the age of innocence. Before wifi, smartphones, laptops, self pump gas stations and the WNBA. I remember the classic commercial "I'd like to teach the world to sing." and thought it was stupid. I was a teenage and full of hormonal rage. Frank Zappa, Alice Cooper and the Grateful Dead were cool. The Monkees, Carpenters and John Denver were not.

There will be other shows I'm sure I'll follow in the future. I still have The Walking Dead, The Good Wife and all 40 NCIS's to fall back on.

I will miss Mad Men. I thought about the characters that were on the show and tried to figure out which once I might have most resembled in that era. I came up with Pete...the wide-eyed kid with a impeccable background who finally grew up at the end of the series. Who knows? It was a different time.

And, I wish that Don Draper had just walked down the Big Sur beach, into the water, and just disappeared into the surf and ocean.

paulie

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Simple pays off



Sometimes simple is best. When looking at the Preakness, I liked two horses. American Pharoah and Dortmund. How best to use them was the question.

I was getting killed on the races leading up to the Preakness. Available cash dwindling...I chose a simple strategy. Take the two horses I liked, put them on top up an exacta and trifecta and put everything else below them. With the rapidly declining weather conditions, it seems logical.

A $1 exacta wheel with American Pharoah and Dortmund on top and everyone else below cost me $14. It returned $62. A $1 trifecta with American Pharoah and Dortmund on top and all underneath in second and third was a bit pricier at $98. It brought back $492 though...and saved the day.

American Pharoah is a beast. Dortmund appeared to hate the surface, especially after the rain.

The Belmont should be interesting and we, once again, see if a horse can capture the elusive third jewel in the Triple Crown.  

Saturday, May 2, 2015

Derby Picks --




RECAP:

We had a couple of scratches that we weren't able to pull out of our selections for you. Granny's Kitten in the 6th race, Stephanie's Kitten in the 10th race and International Star in the Kentucky Derby. We didn't have a lot of luck early...with just two exactas after the 10th race. The Derby did us well, though...our exacta, trifecta and Pick 3's hit. It was a nice boost that put us $60 ahead for the day and we'll take it...after our rough start. 

As for the race...International Star had what it took in that long Churchill stretch. We were hoping Dortmund's late kick would be a bit stronger...but third place is not bad and we'll hope he returns to vye for the Preakness.



HAPPY DERBY TO YOU! 

We had a so-so OAKS Day Friday on the picks. Out of the six Stakes races we selected...I had three exactas and two trifectas. No Pick 3's or 4's unfortunately. I ended up with a profit of $62.  

Sonja went win, place and show on our top four selections in each race and a  profit of $6.

Fortunately, we hit huge on the first race of the day. I liked Big Red Seven (reminded me of Chris Redman) and put him in the exacta. He won and paid $54 to win..so we got well early. The exacta was around $250 for a $2 wager. 

Today's Derby Day Stakes Races are listed below. For entertainment purposes only. of course. Good luck and HAPPY DERBY DAY! 

Race 5 - Pat Day Mile Stakes

2- Gimme Da Lute
6- Competitive Edge
5- Lord Nelson
3- The Truth or Else

Race 6 - American Turf Stakes

1- Luck of the Kitten
4- Royal Son
6- A Lot
3- Granny's Kitten

Race 7 - Humana Distaff

8- Judy The Beauty
3- Dame Dorothy
2- Thank You Mary Lou
1- Sweet Reason

Race 8 - Churchill Downs Mile Turf

8- Sandiva
5- Coffee Clique
13- Kiss Moon
12- Kitty Wine

Race 9 - Churchill Downs Stakes

2- Bayern
4- Private Zone
5- Pants On Fire
1- C. Zee

Race 10 - Woodford Reserve Turf Classic

8- Stephanie's Kitten
10- Chocolate Ride
9- Seek Again
1- Optimizer

Race 11 - The Kentucky Derby

8- Dortmund
18- American Pharoah
2- Carpe Diem
12- International Star

GOOD LUCK! 

paulieandsonja
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Friday, May 1, 2015

Kentucky Oaks Picks


KENTUCKY OAKS PICKS

We had an OK 'Thurby' Day in our Thursday Selections. We decided to just play a $1 exacta on our top four picks for the 11 races we handicapped. We hit seven exactas, lost four. The prices weren't anything to brag about at Churchill yesterday...we ended up a $5 winner on the day. That profit equates to a down payment on one beer at Churchill...the Budweiser's were $6 per 16 oz bottle. 

We were getting Gold Room prices...a little cheaper.  

I suppose that's not bad...to bet all the races and still come out ahead...but we look to do better today. We'll mix in a few Pick 3's and Pick 4's and hope to show a big profit. We're headed to the debauchery and craziness that is The Infield today. Full speed ahead, boys! The lovely and talented Ms. Sonja joins me today and she and I had a lively discussion about a few of the picks below

Here are our six stakes races selections. Good Luck and these are for entertainment purposes only, of course. 

The Edgewood - Race 6

1- Quality Rocks
4- My Year Is A Day
8- Sweet Swinging
6- Feathered

La Troienne - Race 7

5- Sheer Drama
2- My Miss Sophia
3- Sweet Whisky
8- Molly Morgan

Alysheba - Race 8

7- Honor Code
2- Protonico
8- Call Me George
6- Midnight Cello

CARDINAL COUPLE CONTRIBUTOR JENNY IS A PART OWNER OF THE #6 HORSE IN RACE NINE BELOW
FOREST ELF WILL HAVE HIS WORK CUT OUT FOR HIM BUT WE WISH HIM LUCK! Turf Sprint - Race 9

12- Undrafted
3-  Heital
11- Something Extra
8- Good Deed

Eight Belles - Race 10

1- Callback
12- Taylor S
8- Enchanting Lady
2- Promise Me

Kentucky Oaks - Race 11

5- Condo Commando
7- Lovely Maria
8- I'm A Chatterbox
12- Stellar Wind

Good luck and we'll have our Derby Picks for you tomorrow morning. Happy Oaks Day! 

paulie and sonja
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Thursday, April 30, 2015

Thurby Picks and an early look at the Kentucky Oaks



An interesting card for Thursday racing at Churchill Downs...hopefully the rain holds off. I handicapped for a fast track and firm turf. I hope I get it, or it'll be chaos.

These, of course, are for entertainment purposes (or Porpoises?) only. 

Also, an early look on who I like in the Kentucky Oaks. We'll have the whole stakes race card picked in tomorrow's entry. Post time 12:45 today. Arrive early.

Race 1 

5- Rhodium
2- Greek Life
1- Prom Theme
6- Flattering Touch

Race 2

6- Scammony
5- Nearshore
3- Redlace and Pearls
4- Little Norwegian

Race 3

6- Tanner's Popsicle
2- Quiet Ry
1- All Star Red
3- Bluffalo Bill

Race 4

1- Lookin Might Fast
8- Blingboy
4- Uneven Score
3- Forty Four North

Race 5

2- Posture
9- Good Quality
5- Bonespirngs
7- De Facto

Race 6

4- Chivalrous
1- Lemon Drop Title
7- Kings Knight
6- Tinto Mesa

Race 7

3- Big Big Easy
5- Sergios Pride
1- Kutuzov
9- Wood Machine

Race 8

3- Nileator
4- Japan
1- I'mbetterthangood
10- Tally Jax

Race 9

5- Captain Genius
1- Guns Loaded
2- Be a Hero
4- Gambler's Ghost

Race 10

1- Bugle
3- Queenie's Song
8- Candy Crush
9- Jester and Me

Race 11

7- Secret Stash
4- Midnight Escapade
2- Mauk Dirty to Me
6- Daddy's Profit

In the Kentucky OAKS on Friday, here's my early thinking...

Condo Commando has won three in a row by a combined 36 lengths. Cagey Joel Rosario returns as the rider and the horse likes to be up near the front. They may have to catch her or she'll blow by the early speed. Lovely Maria has been no worse than second in seven starts and could be there to pick up the pieces if "The Commando" fails. I'm not sold on Kerwin Clark as the rider, though.  I'm A Chatterbox will get a lot of support at the window and is 3 for 3 as a three year old. Florent Geroux as jockey is the only drawback. Stellar Wind will have to overcome the 12 post position...but had a 5 1/2 length win in the Santa Anita Oaks and Victor Espinoza had was aboard for that one and returns. As a longshot, I'm looking at Forever Unbridled...despite the rail post...she's a determined filly and Mike Smith will keep her safe and in contention. 

We'll look at it again tomorrow. 

paulie
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